thebandit27 Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) They actually ran a lot, but not well. And you can run with 8 in the box and dominate, who says you can't?. It also sets up play action passes to beat 8 men in the box. Look how the Teams that won in the Playoffs ran the ball, and the fancy passing teams lost. They actually ran the ball just fine, ranking 14th in the NFL in YPC (ahead of playoff teams Carolina, Denver, New Orleans, & Cincinnati, and 0.1 YPC behind Seattle & Indy), which is especially impressive considering they ran the ball more than any other team. http://www.nfl.com/s...qualified=false The biggest problem with the OL was the QBs walking themselves into pressure when they had plenty of pocket space to step into...all 3 of them did this way too often. Hey, I like it.... other Bills fans thinking like me. With a more dominate O line EJ wouldn't need to a be a Manning or Brady just yet, and game managing QB Alex Smith took the Chiefs to the playoffs, as the NFL 17th best QB. Recall that Chiefs game where they didn't even score a TD on offense, as they won it with a defensive TD, and FG's. Think how bad that O line was this season, as only center Eric Wood, and Cordy Glenn graded in the green in that last game against the Patriots. Like the OP states a dominate O line would not only help EJ keep from being the 4th most hit QB, the 5th most sacked. It would also help the run game, and help keep the defense fresh and off the field. Isn't it the very smartest thing the Bills could to is play keep away from Tom Brady, and then when he finally gets the ball smack him in the mouth with that fresh defense. You mean the Chiefs game where the Bills ran for 240+ yards with a 4th string QB? They lost that game because their QB threw 2 crucial interceptions, TJ Graham fumbled an easy completion, and they failed to score a TD in 3 trips into the red zone. Had nothing to do with the OL. Maybe the O-line wasn't "dominate", but it was not nearly as bad as many here are painting it. Profootballfocus had them in the top half of the league: ahead of the pats, Steelers, Chiefs, Colts, and way ahead of the Ravens.....and Seattle. It wasn't really the O-line, fellas... Indeed. More fuel for the discussion: http://www.footballo...sacks-confusion This breakdown shows that Buffalo had the 6th-lowest percentage of sacks-surrendered-due-to-a-blown-block in the entire NFL at 43.8%. It also shows that the team had the second-highest percentage of coverage sacks surrendered in the league. Like WEO said: it really isn't the OL. Edited February 12, 2014 by thebandit27
RuntheDamnBall Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 The Bills ran well but situationally they sucked. They had a hard time getting critical yards in short yardage situations. They need to be able to win the battles at the line on those plays - the way NE, SF, SEA do - to be able to compete in the AFC East.
thebandit27 Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 The Bills ran well but situationally they sucked. They had a hard time getting critical yards in short yardage situations. They need to be able to win the battles at the line on those plays - the way NE, SF, SEA do - to be able to compete in the AFC East. That was true in certain games, but untrue in most. By and large, the Bills' Power Success (defined by the NFL as "Percentage of rushes on 3rd or 4th down with 2 or fewer yards to go that achieved a first down or TD. Also includes rushes on 1st-and-goal and 2nd-and-goal from the opponent's 2-yard line or closer) was average: 88% to the left (3rd in the NFL) 62% up the middle (20th) 55% to the right (25th) Total 65% (14th)
RuntheDamnBall Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 That was true in certain games, but untrue in most. By and large, the Bills' Power Success (defined by the NFL as "Percentage of rushes on 3rd or 4th down with 2 or fewer yards to go that achieved a first down or TD. Also includes rushes on 1st-and-goal and 2nd-and-goal from the opponent's 2-yard line or closer) was average: 88% to the left (3rd in the NFL) 62% up the middle (20th) 55% to the right (25th) Total 65% (14th) Understood. I would really have to spend a lot of time running the situational numbers, but TOP was 28th in the league for the team, so they are clearly not staying on the field long enough. I also look at things like 4th and short (1-4 yards) and only converting one of those via the running game, or choosing not to go for it in those situations even when in the opposition's territory. The stronger teams take those chances and I don't believe Marrone trusts his team to convert them - that could be a chicken-egg scenario.
Bills Fan in Beantown Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Draft will fill 3 spots in the prime picks (1-3). 1st - OT, 2nd - LB, 3rd - OG. FA signing of a TE, LB and CB. draft picks in the 4th and 5th -WR and RB. 6th and 7th will be special teams/depth types - DB and DL. The Bills need stay healthy and fill a few spots to make move t o h next level. I am not sure that they will bring in a QB to back up EJ. This is just a wild guess, since draft trades can occur. FA will speak volumes on how they are going to approach up grading the team. Agreed.
thebandit27 Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Understood. I would really have to spend a lot of time running the situational numbers, but TOP was 28th in the league for the team, so they are clearly not staying on the field long enough. I also look at things like 4th and short (1-4 yards) and only converting one of those via the running game, or choosing not to go for it in those situations even when in the opposition's territory. The stronger teams take those chances and I don't believe Marrone trusts his team to convert them - that could be a chicken-egg scenario. Sure, that's part of the equation--good point. I just mentioned in another thread that I do indeed hope for an upgrade or two along the OL, specifically at LG and RT. I don't, however, think that (a) it's the issue of greatest need, or (b) that the team needs to heavily invest. I'd be happy with an average LG (hopefully a veteran as there's quite a few out there) and a RT that is better than Pears. If I had it my way, they'd spend the money to bring in a guy like Strief or Anthony Collins in FA to play RT (although Collins may get LT money) and bring in a value veteran at LG (guys like Wharton, Colon, Scwhartz, Boothe, & Pollak come to mine). I'd also think about picking up a swing OT to compete in the event that they cut Pears and Hairston doesn't return to health. As for TOP, that's certainly a deficiency that needs to be corrected. My observation has been that TOP is almost exclusively dependent upon generating first downs, which makes it nebulous to pinpoint the run or pass game as the key contributor--my opinion is that the majority of first downs come through the air in today's game, so the QB becoming more efficient may solve that problem to the greatest extent.
JPS Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 I completely baffled by those who are even somewhat satisfied with the Oline. The are indisputably weak at 2 positions and have zero depth. Only an occasional Spiller long run and Fred Jackson's refusal to go down made their stats respectable. I've been around since OJ and I think it's one of the worst group of bartenders ever to line up on the O-line. This debate of why the Bills are 6-10 is old .
RuntheDamnBall Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 I've been around since OJ and I think it's one of the worst group of bartenders ever to line up on the O-line. I can't agree with this since we've seen jokers like Langston Walker, Mike Pucillo, Greg Jerman, Trey Teague, Derrick Dockery, #5 overall pick Mike Williams, and others in the past decade. Glenn and Wood are keepers, borderline elite if they can sustain their play and their health. The other positions are upgradeable.
bisonbrigade Posted February 12, 2014 Author Posted February 12, 2014 . Running and great defense may be the way to win a championship but a QB that defenses respect is the way to the playoffs.??? Really, I guess you didn't watch the Superbowl. Seattle respected Manning a lot. LOL. When the Bills were in the Superbowl's each time they lost to a power running game and great defense. High Passing numbers are for the regular season.
Solomon Grundy Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Khalil Mack, Yankey/Fua, Fiedorowicz, Moncrief in that order!
bisonbrigade Posted February 12, 2014 Author Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) Remember the 1st and goal against Kansas City, a touchdown would of put the Bills in the driver seat. They could not punch it in, then Jeff Tuel threw the pick. The Bills need lineman to dominate to win. Edited February 12, 2014 by bisonbrigade
All_Pro_Bills Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 The best way to help EJ and the defense given their penchant for running on first and second down early and often is to scrap the no-huddle approach as a full time weapon. The no-huddle in my opinion is best suited as a dynamic within the game. It offers little strategic advantage when the opposing team can bet the house that you will run the hurry-up the entire game regardless of the score, quarter, and down and distance. The Bills lost the T.O.P. battle by heavy margins early in games throughout the season. They would be better suited functioning in a more dynamic, clock-related offense that changes the pace of their attack on the natural flow of the game. Predictability is the achilles heel of any scheme in the NFL. If they want to run the football so much, which I completely agree with, then why not come out using the full play clock and smash em in the face without helping the opponent put immediate pressure on the defense so early? When you catch them in some mismatches then bang, start to pick up the pace. The hurry-up can be used in a much more dynamic and effective fashion than the Bills version. The Patriots are very effective at changing the pace of the offense throughout a game. Another concept is that you can't always run to setup the pass. Sometimes you have to pass to set up the run. Again, it all comes down to them running what amounts to Steve Fairchild's offense but faster. Faster at getting off the field. It didn't work then and it won't work now regardless of the fast pace. EJ also seems to have Trent Edwards disease. Against man coverage he can make a few plays. Against simple zone coverages, he hesitates and checks it down, or takes a sack. Good points and to summarize your detailed analysis, the advantages of running a no huddle/hurry up are negated if you don't score points or sustain a significant number of high play count drives. And the Bills did not score enough points and had too many 3 and outs which rendered that approach a tactical disadvantage. Hopefully, learning curve of the coaching staff isn't too steep here and they make some adjustments.
Dragonborn10 Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 If the Bills Draft OT Robinson or Mathews in the 1st Round and either 266 lb. Seferian-Jenkins or 277 lb. Troy Niklas at TE and run the damn ball. The Bills have two great backs and behind a monster line and TE, it will keep the defense off the field and EJ Manuel on the field. That would set up a killer play action passing game to hit Goodwin or Woods on deep passes. Agree but the defense is still short probably two LB's and a DE that can stop the run. This assumes they resign Byrd. I've posted all off-season they should go OT-TE or TE-OT in the draft. Ideally trade down 5 spots and still get Ebron in the first round. Use the additional pick on a LG or a LB.
NewEra Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 There is no one reason our offense had issues, but the biggest issue was the ability to complete passes from 10+ yards. The ability to consistently complete those passes makes the defense back off a bit from the run. Seemed like 50% of the time cj got a handoff, he had no chance to make a play. Partly due too our OL.....but mostly because teams aren't afraid of us passing the ball mid-deep. True story. We need to upgrade LG and RT. RG should be upgraded too, but I'll be happy with 2 upgrades this off season. Like many said, I agree that it would be nice to add a RT and LG via free agency. If that's possible, along with resigning Byrd and it won't cripple our cap, I'm all for it. Pray to god Sammy Watkins falls to us and Kyle Van Noy slips to us in rd 2. That would help our offense and our defense BIGtime.
Mr. WEO Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 I completely baffled by those who are even somewhat satisfied with the Oline. The are indisputably weak at 2 positions and have zero depth. Only an occasional Spiller long run and Fred Jackson's refusal to go down made their stats respectable. I've been around since OJ and I think it's one of the worst group of bartenders ever to line up on the O-line. This debate of why the Bills are 6-10 is old . So the O-line stats are "respectable" because of a handful of CJ plays and Fred's "refusal to go down"? This is what you conclude after a carreer of watching the Bills "since OJ"? Wow. Anyway, the evidence disagrees with your trained eye. Sure they could use an upgrade on the R side, but the O-line simply isn't the disaster you are pretending it is. Our QB play was the culprit last season. Hopefully that changes this year.
Bill from NYC Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) Understood. I would really have to spend a lot of time running the situational numbers, but TOP was 28th in the league for the team, so they are clearly not staying on the field long enough. This is because their inexperienced, overmatched coach was going with the hurry up far too often. This with a rookie OC, rookie qbs, and a bigger than average offensive line. Not a promising scenario, no? Edited February 12, 2014 by Bill from NYC
thebandit27 Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 . Running and great defense may be the way to win a championship but a QB that defenses respect is the way to the playoffs.??? Really, I guess you didn't watch the Superbowl. Seattle respected Manning a lot. LOL. When the Bills were in the Superbowl's each time they lost to a power running game and great defense. High Passing numbers are for the regular season. I'm not sure who you're talking to...all I can respond with is by asking why 4 of the top 5 "power running" teams did not make the playoffs, while all 5 of the top 5 teams in QB rating did? Remember the 1st and goal against Kansas City, a touchdown would of put the Bills in the driver seat. They could not punch it in, then Jeff Tuel threw the pick. The Bills need lineman to dominate to win. I don't know why you want to make it about that one play. It's not by any means a microcosm of the team's issues. Purely looking at the data provided in this thread, you can easily tell that the team did not struggle to get the power yardage when they needed to on most occasions. The Bills scored 15 rushing TDs in 2013... 13 of them came in the red zone (Spiller's 54-yarder against Cleveland and his 36-yarder against ATL were the outliers) 12 of those 13 came from inside the 10 10 of those 12 came from inside the 5 5 of those 10 came from inside the 3 Furthermore, the teams with the highest red zone scoring percentage (TDs only) were Denver, Cinci, Dallas, Detroit, & KC...they ranked 17th, 27th, 8th, 22nd, and 5th in YPC. As a corollary, the teams with the highest YPC were Philly, Minnesota, Washington, Green Bay, and KC...they ranked 13th, 18th, 20th, 26th, and 5th in red zone scoring percentage (TDs only). http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_TOTAL_AVERAGE_YDS&tabSeq=2&season=2013&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=false http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct To me, this doesn't speak to any correlation between power running and punching the ball into the end zone. This is because their inexperienced, overmatched coach was going with the hurry up far too often. This with a rookie OC, rookie qbs, and a bigger than average offensive line. Not a promising scenario, no? Yes, that's certainly a factor as well...I would like to think the additional help that Hackett has on the staff this year in Downing and Hostler will help him prepare his game plans better. So the O-line stats are "respectable" because of a handful of CJ plays and Fred's "refusal to go down"? This is what you conclude after a carreer of watching the Bills "since OJ"? Wow. Anyway, the evidence disagrees with your trained eye. Sure they could use an upgrade on the R side, but the O-line simply isn't the disaster you are pretending it is. Our QB play was the culprit last season. Hopefully that changes this year. Again, we don't need to speculate when others do the work for us: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol Bills are middle-of-the-pack in virtually every category. As I said repeatedly: I'm not saying the OL is perfect, or that it cannot use an upgrade; I'm simply providing the raw data to dispel the notion that the OL is the culprit for the offensive inefficiency last season.
Mr. WEO Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 I'm not sure who you're talking to...all I can respond with is by asking why 4 of the top 5 "power running" teams did not make the playoffs, while all 5 of the top 5 teams in QB rating did? I don't know why you want to make it about that one play. It's not by any means a microcosm of the team's issues. Purely looking at the data provided in this thread, you can easily tell that the team did not struggle to get the power yardage when they needed to on most occasions. The Bills scored 15 rushing TDs in 2013... 13 of them came in the red zone (Spiller's 54-yarder against Cleveland and his 36-yarder against ATL were the outliers) 12 of those 13 came from inside the 10 10 of those 12 came from inside the 5 5 of those 10 came from inside the 3 Furthermore, the teams with the highest red zone scoring percentage (TDs only) were Denver, Cinci, Dallas, Detroit, & KC...they ranked 17th, 27th, 8th, 22nd, and 5th in YPC. As a corollary, the teams with the highest YPC were Philly, Minnesota, Washington, Green Bay, and KC...they ranked 13th, 18th, 20th, 26th, and 5th in red zone scoring percentage (TDs only). http://www.nfl.com/s...qualified=false http://www.teamranki...one-scoring-pct To me, this doesn't speak to any correlation between power running and punching the ball into the end zone. Yes, that's certainly a factor as well...I would like to think the additional help that Hackett has on the staff this year in Downing and Hostler will help him prepare his game plans better. Good work. Too much lazy thinking going on in this thread. Blowing a 9 pick on an O-lineman would be a move that would have zero impact next year.
Dragonborn10 Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Good work. Too much lazy thinking going on in this thread. Blowing a 9 pick on an O-lineman would be a move that would have zero impact next year. Ok then what should they do at 9? WR? TE? LB? OT will play day one and will be an upgrade day one. Ebron would be an upgrade and start. No guarantee another WR would beat out Woors/Johnson. They will not draft another QB at #9.
thebandit27 Posted February 12, 2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Good work. Too much lazy thinking going on in this thread. Blowing a 9 pick on an O-lineman would be a move that would have zero impact next year. I suppose if it were one of the top 2 OTs (Robinson or Matthews), and he were drafted to play RT, I'd consider that a possible impact pick. That is not my preference...I'd rather pick up a veteran at RT (and LG) and draft offensive weapons. Ok then what should they do at 9? WR? TE? LB? OT will play day one and will be an upgrade day one. Ebron would be an upgrade and start. No guarantee another WR would beat out Woors/Johnson. They will not draft another QB at #9. Ebron, a run-stuffing LB, their favorite WR, or even one of the pass rushers like Mack or Barr if they fell (can never have too many impact defenders)...any of those would be okay with me. I just don't see the value being there at OT outside of the top 2, and I don't think either falls to Buffalo.
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