Kirby Jackson Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 The more that I think about it the more I am leaning towards a deal (if you get value). -The best case scenario is that he produces another double digit sack season and becomes too expensive to keep. The Bills could tag him I suppose but I doubt that they tie the kind of money up necessary to keep Hughes with Mario on the books. So you have 1 more productive year and then he walks. -The worst case scenario is that he reverts back to a pass rushing specialist that produces about 5 sacks and you missed your opportunity to maximize his value. If Schwartz adapts his scheme to his personnel it is a different story. You hear a lot of coaches talk about doing that but I feel like you rarely see them actually do it.
ALF Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 10 sacks is impressive, JJ Watt had 10.5 last season. It all depends if Schwartz can use him and still stop the run.
Tommy Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 I say keep him, because I don't think he has much trade value, and we shouldn't assume he can't be productive in a new system. As Bills fans we'd like to think he could fetch a 3rd, but in my opinion it's more likely he wouldn't go for anything higher than a 5th and 6th...and to me that's not worth it. A player-for-player trade sounds nice too, but that's highly unlikely (the fact that Hughes was obtained in that fashion is an anomaly). So I don't think there's really much of a choice here.
stony Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 10 sacks is impressive, JJ Watt had 10.5 last season. It all depends if Schwartz can use him and still stop the run. It is indeed. Schwartz's MO is stopping the run, so if we're not blitzing as much we'll need as many "pure" rushers who can get after the QB in base packages. He's cheap too.
bobobonators Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 10 sacks is impressive, JJ Watt had 10.5 last season. It all depends if Schwartz can use him and still stop the run. If Hughes falls off and returns to his Colts form, will this be an indictment on Schwartz? Or will it show us just how good Pettine was? I'm always of the belief that you cater your scheme to match your personnel. Of course Schwartz has his own way of going about things, but if he becomes so stubborn that certain players can't succeed then there's a problem. Under Pettine, we saw multiple players on this team have some of their best seasons ever: McKelvin; A. Williams, Hughes, Dareus, etc. - it seems to me that Pettine's influence caused almost all of the ships to rise, not just 1 or 2. We'll see what Schwartz does.
GA BILLS FAN Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Hughes has a favorable contract? Isn't it up this year? $4M cap hit in 2014, his last year of rookie contract. Legit pass rushers are not easy to find, Bills should be looking to extend Hughes, not trade him. They have $30M in cap space, at some point, they need to start spending it and keep their best players
Beerball Posted February 6, 2014 Author Posted February 6, 2014 If Hughes falls off and returns to his Colts form, will this be an indictment on Schwartz? Or will it show us just how good Pettine was? I'm always of the belief that you cater your scheme to match your personnel. Of course Schwartz has his own way of going about things, but if he becomes so stubborn that certain players can't succeed then there's a problem. Under Pettine, we saw multiple players on this team have some of their best seasons ever: McKelvin; A. Williams, Hughes, Dareus, etc. - it seems to me that Pettine's influence caused almost all of the ships to rise, not just 1 or 2. We'll see what Schwartz does. Maybe neither. If the Bills improve vs. the run and stay level vs the pass but the sack numbers drop how would you feel?
bobobonators Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Maybe neither. If the Bills improve vs. the run and stay level vs the pass but the sack numbers drop how would you feel? We'll see, but probably pretty satisfied. No doubt we need to see an improvement vs. the run.
Kirby Jackson Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 (edited) $4M cap hit in 2014, his last year of rookie contract. Legit pass rushers are not easy to find, Bills should be looking to extend Hughes, not trade him. They have $30M in cap space, at some point, they need to start spending it and keep their best players What % of the cap should the Bills tie up in pass rushers? They are going to have to extend CJ and Dareus soon not to mention Byrd this year. Maybe they can work out a favorable extension this year but with Mario on the books it is going to be tough to resign Hughes to the type of contract that double digit sack guys get. Edited February 6, 2014 by Kirby Jackson
Dorkington Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Why do we always want to trade productive players? He's a very effective pass rusher, and I don't recall him being the specific problem with our run defense.
bobobonators Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 What % of the cap should the Bills tie up in pass rushers? They are going to have to extend CJ and Dareus soon not to mention Byrd this year. Maybe they can work out a favorable extension this year but with Mario on the books it is going to be tough to resign Hughes to the type of contract that double digit sack guys get. Dareus we need to extend; CJ not so sure. Why do we always want to trade productive players? He's a very effective pass rusher, and I don't recall him being the specific problem with our run defense. B/c there's a very good chance that the Hughes we saw last year under Pettine will not be the same Hughes we'll see next year under Schwartz. It's the entire personnel vs. scheme argument and it's worth having IMO
Kirby Jackson Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Dareus we need to extend; CJ not so sure. Fair enough, just making the point that it is tough to spend that much on a situational pass rusher when you have all of that $$ invested in Mario on the other side. There are only so many $ that you can allot to each position if you want to be successful.
bigK14094 Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 An interesting question. A former #1 pick of the colts, he still has one year left on his rookie deal, I think. So, under contract for 2014, at least. He did much better than anticipated in the 2013 version of the bills D.....likely why he was brought over from the Colts. the question of whether he will prosper in the Schwartz defense is legitimate...as Hughes success might have been partially scheme driven. Sooooo, Marrone and Schwartz have to decide what to do here.....I am guessing that if a best trade value was researched....and I don't know the Browns personnel...that Pettine/Browns might be the best partner. A #2 would be tempting for sure. But, he is a good player, maybe not quite #1 material, but he has been around, and has had a good year with the Bills. Nobody on this board smart enough to make this call, but Schwartz will be reviewing tons of tape and will know at some point what he will recommend to Marrone and Whatley. Of course, every player will be reviewed in this way on both sides prior to draft to see what is on the roster....so thats nothing different in this case. My guess, he stays. 10 sacks nothing to get rid of in my view.
GA BILLS FAN Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 What % of the cap should the Bills tie up in pass rushers? They are going to have to extend CJ and Dareus soon not to mention Byrd this year. Maybe they can work out a favorable extension this year but with Mario on the books it is going to be tough to resign Hughes to the type of contract that double digit sack guys get. Good question. I think Bills can afford to do all four if they want. They have a very favorable salary structure for at least 2 more seasons since they don't need to pay a $15M-$20M/season QB. They could structure the contracts accordingly to make years 3 and 4 team friendly. They'll have a decision to make on Mario after 2015 season, as cutting him or restructuring him at that point is good option. At this point in the rebuild, Bills need to secure assets and be smart about contract structure to provide flexibility over next few years. Spiller will be an interesting situation. He didn't play well enough to earn big contract extension, should Bills extend now, while the price is low or wait until he proves he deserves extension and price is higher ?
John from Riverside Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 I dont think u get a lot for defensive players anyway....keep him
bobobonators Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Good question. I think Bills can afford to do all four if they want. They have a very favorable salary structure for at least 2 more seasons since they don't need to pay a $15M-$20M/season QB. They could structure the contracts accordingly to make years 3 and 4 team friendly. They'll have a decision to make on Mario after 2015 season, as cutting him or restructuring him at that point is good option. At this point in the rebuild, Bills need to secure assets and be smart about contract structure to provide flexibility over next few years. Spiller will be an interesting situation. He didn't play well enough to earn big contract extension, should Bills extend now, while the price is low or wait until he proves he deserves extension and price is higher ? As far as I'm aware, CJ Spiller is signed through and including the 2015 season. So if that's the case, next year will be a HUGE year for CJ in my eyes. If CJ can't reproduce what he was able to do in 2012 under Gailey with Hackett in back-to-back seasons then maybe we can try and trade him going into his final year (2015) to a contender like the Saints who would actually know how to utilize his talents.
GA BILLS FAN Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 (edited) As far as I'm aware, CJ Spiller is signed through and including the 2015 season. So if that's the case, next year will be a HUGE year for CJ in my eyes. If CJ can't reproduce what he was able to do in 2012 under Gailey with Hackett in back-to-back seasons then maybe we can try and trade him going into his final year (2015) to a contender like the Saints who would actually know how to utilize his talents. Correct, CJ is signed through 2015. $6M cap hit in 2014 and $4M in 2015. He might not see a 2nd contract with Bills. If I were Bills, I'd run him into the ground over next 2 years and draft replacement in 3rd/4th round in 2015 draft. I don't like using 1st/2nd round picks or large $$ on RB's, unless it's something special, ala Adrian Peterson. Edited February 6, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN
BigBuff423 Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 $4M cap hit in 2014, his last year of rookie contract. Legit pass rushers are not easy to find, Bills should be looking to extend Hughes, not trade him. They have $30M in cap space, at some point, they need to start spending it and keep their best players I agree with this based on Hughes' *POSITION*...I was shouting from the roof-tops in the Byrd thread to not over pay for his services given his position is one that does not demand top money. But in Hughes' case, I concur. Because his position is at a pricepoint that deems it necessary, if you can continue to get good production from him, you pay the man, especially as you mentioned the BILLS have great CAP space...
bobobonators Posted February 6, 2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Correct, CJ is signed through 2015. $6M cap hit in 2014 and $4M in 2015. He might not see a 2nd contract with Bills. If I were Bills, I'd run him into the ground over next 2 years and draft replacement in 3rd/4th round in 2015 draft. LMAO!
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