LB3 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 (edited) So, talent is the same but 2 and possibly 3 will go in the top 10, yet Manuel was first last year at 16. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree here because I can't find any logic to have a discussion with. The logic is there, whether you can find it or not. 2013 - Only 2 teams, drafting at 8 & 9 respectively needed a QB. And the Jets didn't necessarily NEED one. 2014 - Possibly 7 teams, drafting at 1,2,3,4,5,8 & 20 respectively need a QB. Can any of those teams reasonably expect to get their QB at where they are actually valued, or is their hand forced? Edited February 4, 2014 by KikoSeeBallKikoGetBall
Beerball Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 The logic is there, whether you can find it or not. 2013 - Only 2 teams, drafting at 8 & 9 respectively needed a QB. And the Jets didn't necessarily NEED one. 2014 - Possibly 7 teams, drafting at 1,2,3,4,5,8 & 20 respectively need a QB. Can any of those teams reasonably expect to get their QB at where they are actually valued, or is their hand forced? We'll revisit in 3 years. I'm guessing that the top 3 drafted this time around will significantly outshine the top 3 from last draft.
NoSaint Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 It's not the same scenario. Last year, there were two teams in the market for a top QB, the Bills and the Jets. This year: Cleveland just drafted Weeden, now they're moving on. Houston thought Schaub was a franchise QB, now they're moving on. Jax just drafted Gabbert, now they're moving on. Ponder just took the Vikings to the playoffs, now they're moving on. Oakland just signed Flynn...who the hell knows what they'll do. Arizona got average play from an old QB, they might move on. The Rams might even move on from Bradford. Demand drives the value of any product, in this case, QB's. Plus, this class was more hyped when Mariota and Hundley were involved. All I've heard lately is that the QB value in this draft is not as high as previously thought. It's quickly gone from "best qb class since 83" to "you might be able to find a guy... Maybe"
LB3 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 It's quickly gone from "best qb class since 83" to "you might be able to find a guy... Maybe" It's funny how that happens. Remember when Matt Barkley and Jake Locker were can't miss prospects until they played their senior years. We'll revisit in 3 years. I'm guessing that the top 3 drafted this time around will significantly outshine the top 3 from last draft. Ok. I'm marking my calendar!
RuntheDamnBall Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Again, we're talking about likely the fourth QB drafted. It's unprecedented to see four go in the top ten. The reason being that most likely there is a talent drop off after the first group, if not earlier. It's very unlikely that there are four star QBs in this draft, and if there are, I would bet a sizable amount that one of them won't be a top ten pick. 2012 could be a historically good draft for QBs if Cousins ends up being a starter in this league and Foles keeps looking decent. Still, one of the top four QBs taken is a major injury concern, another (Tannehill) basically has EJ's trajectory thus far, and Weeden is the other. You can adjust for Wilson being "worth" a first rounder but the fact is that teams are going to grade players based on risk. There are risks the Bills can take -- that Murray will recover from injury, for one; that Boyd can grow into the game, for another -- that don't involve wishing on a first-round grade when one isn't there. You can get Ebron and a Murray or a Boyd and still have options for EJ insurance. Going back to TG's original statement: he does believe they need to draft a first round QB. Ergo, he believes a worthy one will fall to 9, the Bills should trade up, or they should take the best one available even if he's fourth best. Sounds like the kind of drafting for position rather than for talent that sets franchises back, IMO. You can argue till you're blue in the face that the Bills did that with EJ but they did it in such a way that they netted a DROY candidate at LB too, so to me that levels the argument - they got the QB they liked best in the draft and a LB thought to be the second best defensive rookie in the league. This is the kind of draft plan they need to stick to. Maximize talent, at all positions, till you get it right.
section122 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 The only real "holes" we have are O-line and maybe LB. I don't see how drafting a QB can mess us up. Well you asked if there was a Calvin Johnson in this draft so I responded with wr candidates. There are holes on this team that can be addressed with the first round pick that will make the team better immediately. That is why another first on a qb would be a waste. 3rd or later? I'm on board with. The first couple picks at least should be made with giving the team the best chance to improve next year. Passing up elite talent for the 4th best qb most certainly would mess that up imo.
Beerball Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 The comparison lies in the fact that no QB is considered a can't miss prospect. That's what I meant. I think I also further qualified my earlier post by acknowledging there is more QB talent in this draft as well. GO BILLS!!! What can't miss LB or OT or WR or you pick 'em do you think the Bills will draft?
Sisyphean Bills Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 What can't miss LB or OT or WR or you pick 'em do you think the Bills will draft? Can they re-draft Aaron Curry?
FireChan Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 What can't miss LB or OT or WR or you pick 'em do you think the Bills will draft? Darn you Beerball, I was gonna post what "can't miss" Tight End we are so clearly going to draft in the first.
K-9 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 What can't miss LB or OT or WR or you pick 'em do you think the Bills will draft? I'm still in the early stages of gathering information and awaiting feedback. I know they like Robinson and Watkins and there's a chance that a QB frenzy causes one of them to drop but my gut tells me no right now, and I think they'll look to trade down to somebody looking for a QB. GO BILLS!!!
thebandit27 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 I'm still in the early stages of gathering information and awaiting feedback. I know they like Robinson and Watkins and there's a chance that a QB frenzy causes one of them to drop but my gut tells me no right now, and I think they'll look to trade down to somebody looking for a QB. GO BILLS!!! If they do want to trade down, a concept I can't stand as many of you know (I always say take a top 10 talent when you're drafting there), then the best-case scenario would be for a guy like Bortles to fall. The only issue is that you'd then need a team that's nowhere near a guarantee to want a QB to fall in love with the guy...perhaps a STL or ARI. For my $$, I'd prefer they sit right there at 9 and take the best football player. The FO did a very good job of filling needs in rounds 2-4 last season, and I expect them to do the same. You only get one shot at the top talent in the draft, so IMO it's crazy to pass on it...and for the record, I don't consider any of the QBs to be top 10 talents.
ALF Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 We will see on draft day if someone makes us a offer we can't refuse. Lots of good underclass players in draft. An extra 2nd rd pick would really help.
K-9 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 If they do want to trade down, a concept I can't stand as many of you know (I always say take a top 10 talent when you're drafting there), then the best-case scenario would be for a guy like Bortles to fall. The only issue is that you'd then need a team that's nowhere near a guarantee to want a QB to fall in love with the guy...perhaps a STL or ARI. For my $$, I'd prefer they sit right there at 9 and take the best football player. The FO did a very good job of filling needs in rounds 2-4 last season, and I expect them to do the same. You only get one shot at the top talent in the draft, so IMO it's crazy to pass on it...and for the record, I don't consider any of the QBs to be top 10 talents. I agree. I've always been a proponent of BPA. I also agree about the QBs but some team or two is gonna take them which may cause a better prospect to fall. This draft has many closely graded players which is why I can see them trading down for more picks if one of their top two or three rated players isn't there at nine. GO BILLS!!!
BackInDaDay Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Again, we're talking about likely the fourth QB drafted. It's unprecedented to see four go in the top ten. The reason being that most likely there is a talent drop off after the first group, if not earlier. It's very unlikely that there are four star QBs in this draft, and if there are, I would bet a sizable amount that one of them won't be a top ten pick. 2012 could be a historically good draft for QBs if Cousins ends up being a starter in this league and Foles keeps looking decent. Still, one of the top four QBs taken is a major injury concern, another (Tannehill) basically has EJ's trajectory thus far, and Weeden is the other. You can adjust for Wilson being "worth" a first rounder but the fact is that teams are going to grade players based on risk. There are risks the Bills can take -- that Murray will recover from injury, for one; that Boyd can grow into the game, for another -- that don't involve wishing on a first-round grade when one isn't there. You can get Ebron and a Murray or a Boyd and still have options for EJ insurance. Going back to TG's original statement: he does believe they need to draft a first round QB. Ergo, he believes a worthy one will fall to 9, the Bills should trade up, or they should take the best one available even if he's fourth best. Sounds like the kind of drafting for position rather than for talent that sets franchises back, IMO. You can argue till you're blue in the face that the Bills did that with EJ but they did it in such a way that they netted a DROY candidate at LB too, so to me that levels the argument - they got the QB they liked best in the draft and a LB thought to be the second best defensive rookie in the league. This is the kind of draft plan they need to stick to. Maximize talent, at all positions, till you get it right. well said..
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 We'll revisit in 3 years. I'm guessing that the top 3 drafted this time around will significantly outshine the top 3 from last draft. I'll take that bet. Seriously, Blake Bortles is being talked about as a top 10 pick. It's all about need and less teams needed a QB last year.
Nanker Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 If they do want to trade down, a concept I can't stand as many of you know (I always say take a top 10 talent when you're drafting there), then the best-case scenario would be for a guy like Bortles to fall. The only issue is that you'd then need a team that's nowhere near a guarantee to want a QB to fall in love with the guy...perhaps a STL or ARI. For my $$, I'd prefer they sit right there at 9 and take the best football player. The FO did a very good job of filling needs in rounds 2-4 last season, and I expect them to do the same. You only get one shot at the top talent in the draft, so IMO it's crazy to pass on it...and for the record, I don't consider any of the QBs to be top 10 talents. Explain how they would have done so well without trading down to pick up Kiko in the 2nd with the Rams pick, and getting Marques in the 3rd with the swapped pick of the Rams. Then they picked the mighty Duke Williams in the 4th who played in 5 games and managed 5 tackles. So not trading down and taking Austin instead of EJ AND Kiko with the added pick would have been preferable? Please don't say you'd have advocated taking Sheldon Richardson at 9. We weren't taking a DT in round 1 in 2013.
thebandit27 Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Explain how they would have done so well without trading down to pick up Kiko in the 2nd with the Rams pick, and getting Marques in the 3rd with the swapped pick of the Rams. Then they picked the mighty Duke Williams in the 4th who played in 5 games and managed 5 tackles. So not trading down and taking Austin instead of EJ AND Kiko with the added pick would have been preferable? Please don't say you'd have advocated taking Sheldon Richardson at 9. We weren't taking a DT in round 1 in 2013. I'm not sure why you're getting upset over my opinion. I post quite a bit during the months leading up to the draft, and if you want to check my post history, you'll see that I absolutely advocated taking a DT--be it Richardson or Lotuleilei in the first if they were there. Not because I wanted a DT, rather because I wanted a top 10 talent. Overall though, I think you missed the point of my post, which was that I prefer to get a top 10 talent and draft for need later on rather than to forgo the top talent in favor of more players. This is especially true given the quality (note, not quantity) of players the team drafted with their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th picks. The crux of my statement is that they clearly did a good job of identifying talented guys with those next few picks, and I expect them to do the same this year. If you want to pick that opinion apart by bringing up Duke Williams as a counterpoint to their player evaluation, well, I don't think we're on the same page.
Bill from NYC Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 You can argue till you're blue in the face that the Bills did that with EJ but they did it in such a way that they netted a DROY candidate at LB too, so to me that levels the argument - they got the QB they liked best in the draft and a LB thought to be the second best defensive rookie in the league. This is the kind of draft plan they need to stick to. Maximize talent, at all positions, till you get it right. The only thing I must add there is that I am strongly of the opinion that the Bills liked another qb (Geno Smith?) as much as they liked EJ. I am unable to see this as not being true. If you were a GM and you thought a QB was head and shoulders above the rest, would you trade back 8 spots and risk losing him? I surely would not.
YoloinOhio Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 (edited) The only thing I must add there is that I am strongly of the opinion that the Bills liked another qb (Geno Smith?) as much as they liked EJ. I am unable to see this as not being true. If you were a GM and you thought a QB was head and shoulders above the rest, would you trade back 8 spots and risk losing him? I surely would not. But I thought everyone said we could have gotten him in the 3rd or 4th round! lol. IMO EJ ws their guy and they took him in the 1st for that reason, as he had visited the Browns and Eagles as well who were both interested and may have taken him in the 2nd. Exactly as you said, they did not want to risk losing him by waiting... we have no idea if they tried to trade down further and couldn't find someone willing to do so or weren't happy with what they would have gotten in return. Regardless, they felt OK trading down to 16 because they could. They likely did enough homework to know he was not going to go in top 15. Edited February 4, 2014 by YoloinOhio
Numark Posted February 4, 2014 Posted February 4, 2014 I can't believe people here want to draft a QB high and think the bills might do so. For a long time we want the bills to get a QB in the first round. We finally do so and due to injuries, injuries at WR, an inconsistent run game, and a terrible o line. And you want to give up??? Um rookie QBs are allowed to struggle. When was the last time a team drafted QBs in the first round back to back years??? Exactly because grumpy ill informed fans who want to use the laughably bad strategy of drafting QBs every year don't run teams
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