EJ knee surgery, Tim Graham questions, draft QB?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

The evidence that the Bills don't know how to draft is glaring. They have repeated the same mistakes throughout their history. Drafting nearly 50% RB's and DB's with their first selection in the draft over a 40+ year period and never a QB with that pick.......the shortsightedness of the organization has been undeniable. I fully supported the decision to draft EJ Manuel. Success or bust, you miss 100% of the chances you don't take. But I said it then, it was only a good decision if they were willing to go back to the well in 2014 if Manuel didn't knock their socks off. Getting a QB is not about throwing an occasional bone at problem and hoping it works out.

 

I am not saying you can't justify taking any position other than QB in the first round.........but without a very good QB your organization has no direction and the Bills have consistently been unable to understand that. They are always trying to patch up their other 21........but the truth is, until you have a quality QB you really have no idea how good the rest of your team is. That is why the Bills consistently let players move on in FA or via trade that go on to perform much better elsewhere. So comparing how teams with good QB's draft to how the Bills draft is pointless. The Bills have to get in the game before they can expect any results thru patch drafting.

 

Bad 'Ol, 40 years ago an amazing RB had different importance to a team and was worth drafting high. Let's stick to more modern times, shall we? Let's say since the Polian GM era. It is inarguable that the Bills player selection and development have been awful and their neglect of the QB position shameful.

 

But I didn't think the general ineptitude of Bills GMs Past was what we were discussing here. Once again, the field has shifted.

 

Forgive me paraphrasing, but I thought the point you were arguing was that the Bills need to draft a QB in the first because it's of paramount importance to have a QB who can change the fortunes of the franchise. I don't disagree that a QB is important, my point is that drafting a QB high in the 1st doesn't, in fact, make that QB one of the very few and rare QB who can "carry a team" - "turn the fortunes of a team around", rather than a quality prospect with a reasonable chance of becoming a quality NFL player. A lot of QB are selected high because of the importance of the position, and a lot of them are "just guys" or worse. Not a lot of impact.

 

I don't see one of those can't miss "turn the fortunes around" QB in the draft this year - a Luck or a Newton. That being said, I believe the sound strategy is to look for the player that the talent evaluators believe has the best chance to be an immediate impact player in the 1st, be he QB or LB or other. ( If the talent evaluators still suck, we're doomed). I'm not saying don't draft a QB - I'd be happy to see us draft a QB if a QB we evaluate high happens to be the BPA when we draft.

 

I'd still like to see your list of QB who have been drafted in the top 10 picks and have "changed the fortunes of the franchise" because per your earlier post, QB turn the franchise around all the time, right? Let's agree on "turn the franchise around" as a pattern of success, not one playoff appearance in a spate of losing seasons, and let's limit the discussion to roughly the last 10-12 years when rule changes are generally held to have increased the importance of the QB and the passing game.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Would anyone have a concern with A Murray in the 3rd or 4th? High level of accomplishment in the SEC and a rabid fan base. Mobile, smart and a decent reach based on production.

I'd love Murray and I think that he's worth that pick. People who study the draft more than I do think that he might last longer, but I'm not so sure. He might have been a first rounder last year and probably at least a second.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Still, BadOl has a strategic football point in there. No doubt, there are exceptions to anything, but QB as a position tends to be filled by guys taken very early in the draft. LB is the other end of the spectrum. There was a study, oh, a few years ago about the average draft position of every NFL player on each team's 2 deep depth chart, and LB was the very lowest group. By quite a bit as I recall. In other words, the average NFL team gets production at LB without high investment.

 

*chuckle* meaning no offense, but I'm having trouble understanding what Bad 'Ol's point actually is because the topic of dicussion seems to keep shifting. The only point I'm clear on is that he thinks the Bills are an inept organization and that anyone who thinks that's changed yet is mistaken.

 

So I'll let him speak for himself and address your point. Each team keeps 2, at most 3, QB on the roster.

 

In contrast, each team keeps 6-8 LB, some of whom are kept for ST contributions. So it stands to reason that if you look at the rosters of each NFL team, LB will rank low. But there are lunch-pail guys and stars in the LB corp, too. I think if you look at the rosters of top teams you'll find 1-2 LB who were drafted in the 1st or high in the 2nd as well as the "value picks" from the later rounds, and the draft picture is further muddled because teams do draft college DE and flex back and forth if they consider them LB or DE.

 

Overall, I agree that it's more likely to find a quality LB in the later rounds, than it is to find a quality QB just because of the "numbers game" (more LB to choose from in the college ranks as well, more LB needed at the NFL level). But that doesn't mean it's stupid to draft a LB in the top 10, or that a LB drafted high will necessarily devalue vs. a QB drafted high who doesn't show too much.

 

I'd love Murray and I think that he's worth that pick. People who study the draft more than I do think that he might last longer, but I'm not so sure. He might have been a first rounder last year and probably at least a second.

 

I don't follow college football enough to have an opinion, but I think it's a valid strategy to look for a QB who scores high in evaluations and who may be undervalued due to some characteristic.

 

Still, I think our FO places too strong an emphasis on something Murray does not have - height. I think that's the ultimate reason why we passed up Wilson.

 

Really? After dumping 10 million or so on Flynn, they dropped him after 2 preseason games and after Wilson, the "too short QB" by all accounts, played a sinlge game---that's nit unconventional?

 

Overall, I like the Seasnakes approach. Having determined that TJax was a tough, good backup and they needed an upgrade at QB to make the next step, they pulled out all the stops - did what they had to do to corner the best FA available AND drafted a QB they liked, then let the best man win.

 

Say what?

 

Harvin certainly made the most of his 4 touches, but Wilson did everything he had to, made all the throws, converted third downs, no errors.

 

I'm not trying to dis Wilson, really I'm not. I think he's a fine young QB. He did indeed commit no game-losing errors, and he had some key 3rd down conversions both throwing and running. What I was trying, perhaps unsuccessfully, to convey, is that my overall gestalt of Wilson's game is that he had 2-3 good runs and 3-4 just amazing, laser-guided "you got to be kidding me" throws. That's what I mean by "showed flashes". I don't think he's on a par with Luck, say.

 

Overall, though, the impression I was left with was not "Wow, Wilson is a great QB and he's really out there putting on a clinic". There were a lot of dink and dunk passes and outright off-target passes especially early in the game, drives that came away with field goals instead of TDs. In the end, it turned out not to matter because Seattle's D and ST did more than enough to win by themselves and Wilson's 2 TD were gravy.

[ecgetty]

Hopeful. I'd suggest that Murray presents a chance for the new regime to select someone in rounds 3-5 who does not represent a potential starter but a QB who could capture the team in a charismatic way. This guy is a winner and provided excellent oppotunity to premiere talent at wr over the last few years.

Edited February 3, 2014 by ecgetty

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Hopeful. I'd suggest that Murray presents a chance for the new regime to select someone in rounds 3-5 who does not represent a potential starter but a QB who could capture the team in a charismatic way. This guy is a winner and provided excellent oppotunity to premiere talent at wr over the last few years.

 

I'm all for drafting a QB somewhere this year. I think we should draft someone we think IS a potential starter though. Like I said, I just don't follow college football enough to have a meaningful opinion on guys who aren't so much in the national spotlight.

[Sisyphean Bills]

... and address your point. Each team keeps 2, at most 3, QB on the roster.

 

In contrast, each team keeps 6-8 LB, some of whom are kept for ST contributions. So it stands to reason that if you look at the rosters of each NFL team, LB will rank low. But there are lunch-pail guys and stars in the LB corp, too. I think if you look at the rosters of top teams you'll find 1-2 LB who were drafted in the 1st or high in the 2nd as well as the "value picks" from the later rounds, and the draft picture is further muddled because teams do draft college DE and flex back and forth if they consider them LB or DE.

 

Overall, I agree that it's more likely to find a quality LB in the later rounds, than it is to find a quality QB just because of the "numbers game" (more LB to choose from in the college ranks as well, more LB needed at the NFL level). But that doesn't mean it's stupid to draft a LB in the top 10, or that a LB drafted high will necessarily devalue vs. a QB drafted high who doesn't show too much.

 

I don't believe that your numbers argument fully explains the data I mentioned. OL has 10 guys in a 2-deep. DL has 6 to 8. DB has at least 8. All of those positions had a higher average draft position. QB was the highest average draft position and there are 2 QBs per team on a 2-deep. But, TE could have been 2 per team and it was only somewhere in the middle. To take two arbitrary data points using the Bills depth chart, their average at QB (1 and undrafted=8) and TE (4 and 5) are both 4.5. So, we see how a small data set is more susceptible to outliers here.

 

Like I said, there are exceptions to "rules". No one should claim Ray Lewis (a LB by any definition) and Tom Brady (a QB not drafted in the 1st) are bad football players based on this. But the data did show how the average NFL team invested in the draft by position. We also both understand that regardless of the chart, NFL GMs will keep on drafting LBs and some teams will draft them high. There are still RBs drafted in the first round as well, even though there are arguments to be made against doing so.

[Maury Ballstein]

Bills need to smack some 5th round home runs like the hawks did w Sherman and Chancellor.

 

Meanwhile we draft bums like Whitner and Gilmore in early rounds.

 

Peyton ain't beating 49ers or Seahawks anytime soon. Draft a complete team and compete.

[section122]

An interesting thought struck me this morning while listening to mike and mike. Many on here bemoan the fact that EJ struggles when there is a heavy rush and that his mechanics break down. Simply put that he struggles when faced with pressure. This is a near and dear held fact for why he won't/can't be the qb of the future by those that spout that. It could end up being true that he doesn't work out but EVERY QB struggles with this.

 

What is the key to beating Brady and Manning? Pressure in their face. I think we saw that on a grand stage last night but it is a recurring theme with Peyton as well as Brady. So if 2 of the all time greats with 4 super bowl wins and 8 appearances between them struggle with this, why is it used as the crux of any argument against EJ?

 

As for the injury concerns someone earlier in the thread mentioned a comparison to Matthew Stafford and I think it is a great one. Stafford never missed a start in college due to injury then in his first 2 years in the league he played in 13 out of 32 games. In his next 3 years he hasn't missed a start. So is he injury prone? He also only got 10 games his first year. Should the Lions have drafted a QB after year 1? How about after year 2? EJ had a better completion percentage and better ypa than Stafford. Would anyone be mad if EJ turned out as good as Stafford?

[K-9]

...I'm not trying to dis Wilson, really I'm not. I think he's a fine young QB. He did indeed commit no game-losing errors, and he had some key 3rd down conversions both throwing and running. What I was trying, perhaps unsuccessfully, to convey, is that my overall gestalt of Wilson's game is that he had 2-3 good runs and 3-4 just amazing, laser-guided "you got to be kidding me" throws. That's what I mean by "showed flashes". I don't think he's on a par with Luck, say. ...

 

Gestalt.

 

Nice.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[C.Biscuit97]

Ah, the life of a journalist. The geek can talk to the jocks without getting their face pounded in. Jerry Sullivan can call Mario Williams a loser without getting his head ripped off.

 

EJ could do Graham's job a lot better than Graham could do EJ's. I really, really hope EJ can shove it down people's throats who are writing the guy off after a very typical rookie season for a QB.

[K-9]

Ah, the life of a journalist. The geek can talk to the jocks without getting their face pounded in. Jerry Sullivan can call Mario Williams a loser without getting his head ripped off.

 

EJ could do Graham's job a lot better than Graham could do EJ's. I really, really hope EJ can shove it down people's throats who are writing the guy off after a very typical rookie season for a QB.

 

Sports columnists are incapable of having to eat their words or having anything shoved down their throats. It's always a win-win situation for them. Hell, I half expect Graham to take credit for EJ's success if Manuel turns out to be a good QB.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Maury Ballstein]

It would be nice for EJ to shame TG in pressers after every win.

 

Would be hilarious. The weekly shade on TG.

[RuntheDamnBall]

It would be nice for EJ to shame TG in pressers after every win.

 

Would be hilarious. The weekly shade on TG.

Nah. Not worth the time and effort. Prove it on the field.

[C.Biscuit97]

Nah. Not worth the time and effort. Prove it on the field.

 

Agreed and EJ strikes me as classier than that. It's kinda funny that the 23 year old football player has more class than the 45 year old jornalist.

[PastaJoe]

Ah, the life of a journalist. The geek can talk to the jocks without getting their face pounded in. Jerry Sullivan can call Mario Williams a loser without getting his head ripped off.

 

EJ could do Graham's job a lot better than Graham could do EJ's. I really, really hope EJ can shove it down people's throats who are writing the guy off after a very typical rookie season for a QB.

 

So you advocate bullying where jocks intimidate geeks with violence. Nice.

[K-9]

Nah. Not worth the time and effort. Prove it on the field.

 

Exactly. And nobody knows that better than EJ Manuel. Certainly not Tim Graham. I look forward to EJ developing into a good QB and Graham being shunned and denied access and then the inevitable meltdowns by TG in his columns and on twitter.

 

"Hey Tim. Your bias is showing...again."

 

GO BILLS!!!

[C.Biscuit97]

So you advocate bullying where jocks intimidate geeks with violence. Nice.

 

I'm just saying if they were at the same high school, guys like Graham or Sullivan won't be so quick to insult the athletes. They hide behind recorders.

[RyanC883]

I generally dislike Tim graham but I see nothing wrong with his question to EJ. And when EJ asks him if he thinks the bills should take a Qb in the first, you would rather TG lie?

 

i agree. EJ opened the door wide open with that one. Glad he answered it honestly. Tim Graham running out of this site because people disagreed with him was bad form, however.

 

I'm just saying if they were at the same high school, guys like Graham or Sullivan won't be so quick to insult the athletes. They hide behind recorders.

 

A good point, but, this isn't high school. This is the real world. And these athletes get paid millions of dollars, they should be able to handle a reporter's question. If a reporter wants to dig a little deeper in response to a door opened by the athlete, I'm all for it.

[BADOLBILZ]

Exactly. And nobody knows that better than EJ Manuel. Certainly not Tim Graham. I look forward to EJ developing into a good QB and Graham being shunned and denied access and then the inevitable meltdowns by TG in his columns and on twitter.

 

"Hey Tim. Your bias is showing...again."

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I am sure you said the same thing about Bledsoe, Holcomb, Losman, Edwards and Fitzpatrick. How's your wait going? Hopefully EJ is the acorn you have been seeking.

 

And in truth, the team has always shunned the local media. The SB Bills used to give exclusives to national media because they wanted the hype and endorsement opportunities that came with national exposure.

 

They get away with it because it is a small market. And frankly, who cares? You don't need to interview players to report on bad football.

[C.Biscuit97]

i agree. EJ opened the door wide open with that one. Glad he answered it honestly. Tim Graham running out of this site because people disagreed with him was bad form, however.

 

 

 

A good point, but, this isn't high school. This is the real world. And these athletes get paid millions of dollars, they should be able to handle a reporter's question. If a reporter wants to dig a little deeper in response to a door opened by the athlete, I'm all for it.

 

Agreed to a point. But there's a fine line. Jerry Sullivan called Mario Williams a loser over the summer. Is that really a journalist's job? And if you're EJ, would you honestly want to talk to Graham after he basically tries to say you're a bust after one year?

 

There's a reason why guys like Peter King are national guys. They can critcize without being insulting. Too many guys at the Buffalo News cross that line and if I was a player, I'd want nothing to do with them.