Astrobot Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 This report was produced using Draft Tek's Draft Simulator: WWW.Drafttek.com. Posting this report without giving the foregoing information is a copyright violation. I left off players that were identified by the computer as a "Reach" at that pick (defined differently in each round), and I left off players that play in a 3-4 who can't play a 4-3. Available RD1: C.J. Mosley ILB Jake Matthews OT Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix FS Marqise Lee WRF Greg Robinson OT Eric Ebron TE My inclination here is Mosley playing next to Alonso, with Robinson as a superb second choice. Eric Ebron is on our Big Board at 15, so he's fair game, but Chandler was our top receiver this year, Moeaki is untried, and there are holes in Ebron's game too--needs to work on his hands and route-running, and he sometimes misses or doesn't sustain his block. WAY higher ceiling than Chandler, though--just less immediate impact than the other two. Are we patient enough to take him? Re-sign Byrd unless you took HaHa in RD1 and alienated your fanbase. Choice: CJ Mosley ILB. Available RD2: A Seferian-Jenkins TE Ryan Shazier WILB Jeremiah Attaochu OLB43 Kelvin Benjamin WRF Shayne Skov ILB Aaron Donald DT43 Dee Ford OLB43 I think Kelvin Benjamin and AS-J are the best choices here if you went Defense in RD1. Benjamin's just growing into his capabilities--huge ceiling. AS-J will contribute right away. You need a tall weapon for EJ, and (while we have signed four untried 6'4"+ WRs) there aren't loads of them in this draft. Aaron Donald would be a luxury pick, while Skov, Attaochu, and Dee Ford are real possibilities. Shazier is long and lean (230 lbs)...I think he projects to WILB more than OLB43. You have a better version of Shazier in Kiko Alonso, who makes fewer wasted movements. Choice: Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE. Available RD3: Jarvis Landry WRF Paul Richardson WRF Chris Borland ILB Brandon Coleman WRF Will Sutton DT43 If we don't have a sidekick to Alonso yet, Borland's a great pairing. He is a thumper against the run, tough but quick to the play, and leads my choices here. Brandon Coleman is an intriguing pick here, with 6-6 height, and he's among the best adjusting to the poorly-thrown ball (which we've seen from EJ thus far). I prefer Landry's explosion and separation, and dependbility to Richardson's, who falls because he's 6-1, 170 but 4th in the FBS in yards per game with 120. He missed all of 2012 with a MCL. We may have him too high at early RD3. Choice: Brandon Coleman WR. Available RD4: Lache Seastrunk RBF A.J. McCarron, Zach Mettenberger, Tajh Boyd QB Aaron Lynch DE43 Seantrel Henderson OT Anthony Johnson DT43 The lure of Seastrunk may be too much for some, but I'm passing on him for two reasons. There are good options later, and Seastrunk is untried as a receiver out of the backfield. Just say no to QB. Henderson showed his faults vs the quick DEs at the Senior Bowl. Give me Aaron Lynch, the perfect DE for a Wide Nine and 4-3---foot speed, length, and quickness. He'll need to add bulk but wings will do that. Schwartz loves DTs, but he'll improve the ones he already has. Choice: Aaron Lynch DE43. Available RD5: Brandon Linder OG Miami (FL) Christian Kirksey OLB43 Iowa Charles Sims RBF WVU Morgan Moses OT Virginia Jonathan Brown OLB43 Illinois Martavis Bryant WRF Clemson JaWuan James OT Tennessee I see a couple of guys on here that may move up due to their Senior Bowl performances, but I take OL here. Morgan Moses is amazing with ideal size, quick feet, and his specialty is run blocking. JaWuan James has 49 games' experience at RT and he's 6'6" 324. I could see either pushing for RT starter by Game 1. Choice: Morgan Moses RT. Available RD6: Calvin Barnett DT43 Oklahoma State Andre Williams RBF Boston College Terrance West RBF Towson Shaquil Barrett OLB43 Colorado State Justin Britt OT Missouri Here I pounce on the heir apparent to Fred Jackson. Andre Williams was a one-man show in BC, but his running style is conducive to injury. Terrance West is my choice: 4,854 yards in his three seasons at Towson, including 84 touchdowns. Choice: Terrance West RB. Available RD7: Aaron Murray QB Georgia Eric Ward WRF Texas Tech John Urschel OG Penn State Marquis Spruill OLB43 Syracuse Joel Bitonio OT Nevada T.J. Jones WRF Notre Dame Michael Campanaro WRF Wake Forest Jeff Janis WRF Saginaw Valley I think if the Bills take a QB in the draft it will be this late, and I could see Murray sit for 3 years, learning without fans clamoring for him to take over. But Urschel and Bitonio are excellent run-blockers, and I still see good WRs in UDFA, so I'll pass on all of them. Choice: Bitonio OT
bobobonators Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Dude awesome draft if that happens. I like.
CSBill Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Great work Astro. It appears there are some good option for OT in later rounds, which may move us away from Robinson in the 1st. If that happen, I say a receiver or LB early—either would help the right away, and a solid lineman later, that alone would be a very good draft.
Formerly Allan in MD Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Aaron Murray late in the draft; yes!
ganesh Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Aaron Murray late in the draft; yes! What a fall for a guy who was supposed to go in the Top 5/ I still don't think he gets past 3rd round. I see Bellichek taking a flyer on him in Rd 3 as Mallet is the last year of his rookie contract.
Mark Vader Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Splendid job, Astro. Round 1: Mosley would be a great pick. Although, if they decide to go for defense later I would understand. If so, then Jake Matthews or Greg Robinson would be great additions. Round 2: This is a tough one. Jenkins, Watson, Skov or Ford would all make sense. Yikes! Decisions, decisions. Round 3: If these are the choices, I say go with Borland, even if they have already taken a Linebacker. Round 4: Aaron Lynch would be a good move. We need some young blood at the DE position. Round 5: Morgan Moses would be a steal at this point, go for it. Round 6: West would be a decent pick here. Round 7: Aaron Murray? Still available by round 7? I could not pass him up. I would have few complaints with your draft, Astro. Again, good work.
....lybob Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Round 1. Kony Ealy DE Round 2. A Seferian-Jenkins TE Round 3. Gabe Jackson OG Round 4. Donte Moncrief WR Round 5. Andrew Jackson ILB Round 6. Logan Thomas TE/QB Round 7. Tim Flanders RB
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 I was looking at Draftek the other day Astro,and I have to say, the Mosley pick got me thinking. While I do advocate that the best thing for a defense to have is a good offense, if the Bills can keep Byrd their biggest weakness is in their linebacking. Manny Lawson is a decent choice, and Kiko was a revelation, but I do wonder whether it would be best to send him to WLB, where Bradham and Moats certainly weren't getting the job done. The benefit Mosley brings is that he could probably play at any LB position and fill that gap. I would also love ASJ as a TE pickup. I remember he used to be the frontrunner, and has slid a bit in "draft value" but if the Bills lose Chandler (and even if they don't). TE needs people who can actually both block and catch.
boyst Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 I was looking at Draftek the other day Astro,and I have to say, the Mosley pick got me thinking. While I do advocate that the best thing for a defense to have is a good offense, if the Bills can keep Byrd their biggest weakness is in their linebacking. Manny Lawson is a decent choice, and Kiko was a revelation, but I do wonder whether it would be best to send him to WLB, where Bradham and Moats certainly weren't getting the job done. The benefit Mosley brings is that he could probably play at any LB position and fill that gap. I would also love ASJ as a TE pickup. I remember he used to be the frontrunner, and has slid a bit in "draft value" but if the Bills lose Chandler (and even if they don't). TE needs people who can actually both block and catch. if we can get a value FA like Daryl Smith we will be in great position to go all offense. Ebron - Stefan Jenkins in rd1-2 would be fantastic if we address ILB in FA and OL depth in FA and Rd 3
Trader Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 I think there are some quality Tight Ends available mid to late in the draft. What is your opinion of: Arthur Lynch- Georgia. Crockett Gilmore- Colorado State and Jordan Najvar- Baylor?
Section242 Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 What a fall for a guy who was supposed to go in the Top 5/ I still don't think he gets past 3rd round. I see Bellichek taking a flyer on him in Rd 3 as Mallet is the last year of his rookie contract. When was he ever listed as a possible top 5 guy?
FireChan Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 This is like a perfect wish list. I would be beyond stoked for the draft falling that way.
section122 Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Boy if those 6 picks players are available at our spot in round 1 I would be praying for a trade down. A scenario that would net us anyone of those guys followed by Benjamin and ASJ in the second would be fantastic!
1billsfan Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 There's zero chance that Kelvin Benjamin makes it to the second round. The dude is a giant WR who knows how to go up and catch the ball. He will be a red zone nightmare in the NFL. A little raw yes, but there's at least a dozen teams that will roll the dice and take him before the Bills pick at #41. Here are the teams that I see as a landing spot for Benjamin before the Bills pick again... Rams, Steelers, Ravens, Jets, Eagles, Saints, Panthers, Patriots, Niners, Seahawks, Redskins, Raiders, Bucs, Jaguars, Vikings This might be out of the box thinking here but as of right now, I actually would be on board with taking Kelvin Benjamin at #9 and taking either A Seferian-Jenkins or Troy Niklas at #41. The Bills would get ripped of course for picking a supposed "reach", but I think those two huge 6'5"+ weapons would be an instant game changer for this offense and for EJ Manuel's progression into being a franchise QB. Manuel has already played with Benjamin at FSU and threw 4 TDs to him in his senior year so that's a big plus. Then go OL in the third and LB in the 4th.
Astrobot Posted January 30, 2014 Author Posted January 30, 2014 Great work Astro. It appears there are some good option for OT in later rounds, which may move us away from Robinson in the 1st. If that happen, I say a receiver or LB early—either would help the right away, and a solid lineman later, that alone would be a very good draft. Great point. There will be "good" OL guys for RT and LG, but the choices are these, at least in the draft (if not in FA+draft): Do you want 2-3 Pro-Bowl-capable guys playing next to each other on the offensive line (Glenn-Robinson-Wood) providing time for the QB to make 2nd and 3rd reads to locate Woods-Johnson-Goodwin-Chandler-Moeaki? OR Do you want another Pro-Bowl-capable LB next to Alonso to stop the run, force change-of-field, providing more offensive opportunities? OR Do you want a Pro-Bowl-capable true #1 WR with great YAC numbers who's sensational in the screen game to force OC's to choose their poison and open up running underneath? Lucky us, because we can do at least one of the above.
section122 Posted January 30, 2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Great point. There will be "good" OL guys for RT and LG, but the choices are these, at least in the draft (if not in FA+draft): Do you want 2-3 Pro-Bowl-capable guys playing next to each other on the offensive line (Glenn-Robinson-Wood) providing time for the QB to make 2nd and 3rd reads to locate Woods-Johnson-Goodwin-Chandler-Moeaki? OR Do you want another Pro-Bowl-capable LB next to Alonso to stop the run, force change-of-field, providing more offensive opportunities? OR Do you want a Pro-Bowl-capable true #1 WR with great YAC numbers who's sensational in the screen game to force OC's to choose their poison and open up running underneath? Lucky us, because we can do at least one of the above. I would prefer 1 or 2 for the simple reason that they effect the game on a more play to play basis. WR success is so dependent on so many things. O-line and D success open up every facet of the game. If the o-line is great then running and passing(regardless of who the targets are) becomes easier, thus giving your defense more rest/better starting position. A better d forces the other team to react to you, gives the offense more possessions/better starting position/less demand for points. While a stud WR would be great for me it ranks below the need for o-line and lb help.
Astrobot Posted January 30, 2014 Author Posted January 30, 2014 There's zero chance that Kelvin Benjamin makes it to the second round. The dude is a giant WR who knows how to go up and catch the ball. He will be a red zone nightmare in the NFL. A little raw yes, but there's at least a dozen teams that will roll the dice and take him before the Bills pick at #41. Here are the teams that I see as a landing spot for Benjamin before the Bills pick again... Rams, Steelers, Ravens, Jets, Eagles, Saints, Panthers, Patriots, Niners, Seahawks, Redskins, Raiders, Bucs, Jaguars, Vikings This might be out of the box thinking here but as of right now, I actually would be on board with taking Kelvin Benjamin at #9 and taking either A Seferian-Jenkins or Troy Niklas at #41. The Bills would get ripped of course for picking a supposed "reach", but I think those two huge 6'5"+ weapons would be an instant game changer for this offense and for EJ Manuel's progression into being a franchise QB. Manuel has already played with Benjamin at FSU and threw 4 TDs to him in his senior year so that's a big plus. Then go OL in the third and LB in the 4th. I just went and simulated your scenario, and, while the first 3 picks are reaches right now, it'll be a lot less after the Combine and workouts. I still think Watkins is the better player at present, and will continue to be the better player for ~3 years, but Benjamin's ceiling is very high--limited by himself and his coaching-up. This report was produced using Draft Tek's Draft Simulator: WWW.Drafttek.com. Posting this report without giving the foregoing information is a copyright violation. 1 9 Buffalo Kelvin Benjamin WRF Florida State P2Grab -34 Reach 2 41 Buffalo Troy Niklas TE Notre Dame P2Grab -9 Reach 3 73 Buffalo Gabe Jackson OG Mississippi St P2Grab -8 Reach 4 105 Buffalo A.J. McCarron QB Alabama P3O +15 Value or Morgan Moses OT Virginia +12 Value 5 137 Buffalo Charles Sims RBF WVU +2 Value 6 169 Buffalo Max Bullough ILB Michigan State P2 +3 Value 7 201 Buffalo Bene Benwikere CB San Jose State P3 -3 Reach I would prefer 1 or 2 for the simple reason that they effect the game on a more play to play basis. WR success is so dependent on so many things. O-line and D success open up every facet of the game. If the o-line is great then running and passing(regardless of who the targets are) becomes easier, thus giving your defense more rest/better starting position. A better d forces the other team to react to you, gives the offense more possessions/better starting position/less demand for points. While a stud WR would be great for me it ranks below the need for o-line and lb help. Great points. Everyone (especially our 14-years patient fanbase) wants results, and I think Mosley and Greg Robinson would get us there sooner than a stud WR. Who knows? Maybe the WRs we have will look better if our QB has time--time to gel with existing WRs Woods-Goodwin-Johnson-maybe Barden, time to throw.
Proteus Posted January 31, 2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Just say no to a QB is just about the dumbest thing I have ever read on any Bills board.
youngunz Posted January 31, 2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Murray in the seventh would never happen - regardless of the injury. That is more than a value pick...thats grand larceny and a ponzi scheme all together
ganesh Posted January 31, 2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Great point. There will be "good" OL guys for RT and LG, but the choices are these, at least in the draft (if not in FA+draft): Do you want 2-3 Pro-Bowl-capable guys playing next to each other on the offensive line (Glenn-Robinson-Wood) providing time for the QB to make 2nd and 3rd reads to locate Woods-Johnson-Goodwin-Chandler-Moeaki? OR Do you want another Pro-Bowl-capable LB next to Alonso to stop the run, force change-of-field, providing more offensive opportunities? OR Do you want a Pro-Bowl-capable true #1 WR with great YAC numbers who's sensational in the screen game to force OC's to choose their poison and open up running underneath? Lucky us, because we can do at least one of the above. As Deion said in those famous commercials a decade plus ago....How about all of them ?
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