My pre-combine draft thoughts, how about yours

[NewEra]

Here are my thoughts on the first two rounds after doing some pre draft research...

 

Round 1:

Plan A - Sammy Watkins WR / Plan B - Mack or Barr LB / Plan C - Robinson OT

 

Round 2:

Plan A - Richardson or Yankey OL / Plan B - Matthews or Moncrief WR / Plan C - Matthews or Moncrief WR

 

Round 2 selections coincide with their lettered plan counterpart from round 1, they're not meant to be read who I'd want in order as it truly is in round 1. I don't know if I'm the first to mention Donte Moncrief, but from the highlight videos I've watched he looks very smooth and he reminds me of Jerry Rice, he even catches the ball like him. He's tall too for those people who want that in our WR selection. GBN report has him at #58 and Draft Tek has him at #132, but from watching highlight videos, I like him much more than many others receivers that they have ranked ahead of him.

 

If we could get Watkins in the 1st and Richardson or Yankey in the 2nd we would win the draft IMO. That being said, I can't imagine anyone of them dropping to us. Understandable why you have them as plan A. Shoot for the stars. Some don't like the Watkins pick because he's not 6'4+. He makes plays and is a gamer. When Fred leaves, I could see him becoming the heart and soul of the team. Of all the players that have a chance to be there at 9, I think I want him the most, other than Manziel (who I doubt has any chance of being there at 9). Barr, Mack and Mosely are all good options to fill our final LB hole. I believe our biggest problem, other than qb, is Our OL. I'm never a big advocate of spending a top 10 pick on OL unless you're getting a can't miss stud. I don't view any of these guys, minus Matthews, as such. And Matthews will likely be gone. Draft a LG and RT in rounds 2-4, hopefully trading down along the way acquiring additional picks. Mixing in a WR, TE and maybe a QB and RB along the way.

[All_Pro_Bills]

Didn't see this discussed anywhere today. SI's latest mock draft version 4.0 has Bills taking TE Ebron with their pick at 9. Good choice but If it falls this way I would prefer either Watkins or Mosley.

 

http://nfl.si.com/2014/01/08/2014-nfl-mock-draft-johnny-manziel-2/

 

Thoughts on the three?

[KOKBILLS]

I've been saying for a while now that I think the Bills take a big receiver in the 1st round...I think it will come down to who they prefer between Evans, Ebron, or Benjamin (assuming he comes out...and maybe with another trade down)...Ebron will be listed as a TE, but he's not a traditional TE at all...He's a match-up guy...Kind of like Vernon Davis (though he does not have Davis' top end speed...I read that Ebron has been timed at 4.57)...I also seriously doubt Watkins slides to #9 once he runs for scouts...But if Watkins did fall he would immediately be a consideration...

 

I don't think the Bills Draft Defense in Round #1 this year so I'm not really even considering Mosley...Not that I don't like him...I just believe the Bills priority is going to be building around EJ and giving him as many pieces they possibly can to be successful...

[TakeYouToTasker]

You don't draft tight ends at the top of the first round.

[H2o]

Bad call, kinda like when everyone was screaming for us to draft Pettigrew,

[Bronc24]

I've been saying for a while now that I think the Bills take a big receiver in the 1st round...I think it will come down to who they prefer between Evans, Ebron, or Benjamin (assuming he comes out...and maybe with another trade down)...Ebron will be listed as a TE, but he's not a traditional TE at all...He's a match-up guy...Kind of like Vernon Davis (though he does not have Davis' top end speed...I read that Ebron has been timed at 4.57)...I also seriously doubt Watkins slides to #9 once he runs for scouts...But if Watkins did fall he would immediately be a consideration...

 

I don't think the Bills Draft Defense in Round #1 this year so I'm not really even considering Mosley...Not that I don't like him...I just believe the Bills priority is going to be building around EJ and giving him as many pieces they possibly can to be successful...

 

Can't argue with that.

 

As for Watkins, isn't he 6'1? So yeah, we may lose a few inches of height, but man.....think of what he would add to this offense.

[BigBuff423]

You don't draft tight ends at the top of the first round.

 

Thank God!! Someone else actually gets it! Sometimes, I felt like I was screaming into the Grand Canyon on a Mormon bus ride...hopefully, Doug Whaley feels the same way...Round 3 or later folks...

[KOKBILLS]

Can't argue with that.

 

As for Watkins, isn't he 6'1? So yeah, we may lose a few inches of height, but man.....think of what he would add to this offense.

 

Watkins is a stud...He is 6-1, but he plays bigger for sure...Plus he's telling anyone who will listen he's timed under 4.3 on grass...So...He's unquestionably a potential #1 WR in the NFL...Assuming his workouts are as expected, I think the Bills would be insane if they passed on that kid...

 

You don't draft tight ends at the top of the first round.

 

Are Vernon Davis or Jimmy Graham TE's really? In the traditional sense?

 

Ebron is a TE because he's 6-4-245...But he's really more of a big receiver...If Ebron is drafted that high (and I'm not saying he will be) it will be because of his receiving skills and not because he's a traditional TE...

[rwils28]

Unless Manziel magically falls to us at 9, which now that Mariota is out is quite unrealistic. I’m not anywhere near sold that EJ is a Franchise QB, if Manziel was there I would take him. Otherwise, if McCarron, Boyd or Murray are still there in the 3rd, select the best QB to challenge EJ. I think any of the three have almost as much potential as EJ had last year when he was drafted.

 

Offensive line is glaring weakness, and as much as I like Mack at LB, we have too many needs, and need the extra picks. There is a lot of excellent OL line talent this year that would go lower than he will, without a huge drop in potential return to the team. And 2^nd round LB, and talent in general is again excellent this year.

 

Trade back, picking up another 2^nd round pick and maybe even another 3rd or 4^th, depending on the position of the pick.

 

In the 1^st Select:

 

Antonio Richardson, OT

“a massive offensive tackle with the ability to re-route pass rushers and be a road-grader in the ground game”

 

Or if he is gone, Taylor Lewan, OT

“lateral agility and balance in his kick-slide to maintain the edge, while also possessing the strength to lock up his opponent”

 

Select in the 2^nd:

 

Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE 2nd. Not a burner for speed, but we have Goodwin for that. Big and reliable, with good hands and that big target we need in the middle. This negates the need for the pick of the big WR early, letting us get one in the 3rd or 4th.

 

Shayne Skov, ILB 2nd. Shift Kiko to OLB where he is well suited and let Skov cover the middle and the run.

 

If we don’t select a QB in the 3^rd. Select a big WR in the 3^rd. Or in the 4^th. To fill the hole that Da’ Rick might have filled.

 

Fill up on OL potential and needs using the rest of the picks.

I Like it ......

[Big Turk]

There is zero chance of the Bills taking a QB at 9...ZERO. Why don't ppl understand this

 

I am all for taking an OT at 9 or WR Evans

 

Any team taking Manziel in the top 10 is going to regret it but I don't see it happening and think once scouts get a look at him at the combine that his stock will start falling. He is a playmaker no doubt but don't think he is an NFL starting QB

 

No way we take one of the least important positions on the line at RT and make it a #9 overall pick. And if they do they should be fired immediately.

 

Now LT, maybe, but we already have a stud LT. RT we can get in the mid rounds along with a guard. Top 10 picks are for difference makers and no RT or LG in the NFL is a difference maker

Edited January 9, 2014 by matter2003

[simpleman]

 

Though I agree that it most likely that any TE would take several years to become a good to great player.....this can also be said of WRs......and perhaps slightly less with LBs.

 

I disagree with your assessment of where one can better find good TEs though. As with every position, there is a higher success for TEs picked in the first round(and lesser as the rounds progress).

 

As I personally can't judge the overall ability of a TE, I thought I'd simply look at pro bowl appearances.....and then average yards....

 

Drafted from 2000-2013:

 

1st round:

17 drafted

9 pro bowlers(52.9%).

(Franks, Heap, Shockey, Winslow, H.Miller, Davis, Clark, Lewis, Gresham)

 

2nd round:

22 drafted

4 pro bowlers(18.2%)

(Crumpler, Z.Miller, Gronk, Rudolph)

 

3rd round:

31 drafted

3 pro bowlers(9.7%)

(Witten, Cooley, Graham)

 

4th round:

30 drafted

3 pro bowlers(10%)

(Daniels, Thomas, Cameron)

 

 

TEs with 400 yards per year(Ave) or greater:

 

1st round:

13 of 17(76.5%)

(Heap, Shockey, Clark, Watson, Winslow, H.Miller, Lewis, Davis, Olsen, Keller, Pettigrew, Gresham, Eifert)

 

2nd round:

6 of 22(27.3%)

(Crumpler, Scheffler, Z.Miller, Gronk, Fleener, Ertz)

 

3rd round:

6 of 31(19.4%)

(Witten, Cooley, Finley, Cook, Graham, Reed)

 

4th round:

3 of 30(10%)

(McMichael, Daniels, Hernandez)

 

Thanks for the great statistics

[Ramius]

A guy who could be the best rb in this class is James Wilder Jr. For whatever reason, his career never took off. But the guy averaged like 6 ypc in a time share. Won't surprise me at all if he became an Arian Foster type sleeper.

 

Wilder is an enigma. All the physical talent in the world, but had trouble putting it together. He's not the fastest back, which could be a concern at the next level. But he's a grinder who will put his head down and keep the legs churning. He always seeks out contact, and rarely does the first guy bring him down.

 

There are a few reasons his career never took off down here. He's been in a time share, but never proved himself head and shoulders above the others. In his first few seasons, he couldn't be trusted to hit the right hole when he ran, often missing open lanes. He also couldnt be trusted to block/pick up the blitz. He doesn't seem to be the smartest guy around. Then this season he's been fighting nagging injuries. He had a concussion and suffered a rib injury. And Karlos Williams switched to RB. He's going to be a beast next year.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I was thinking we need an LB with our first pick (Mack or Mosley), but if you look at % of snaps played, Kiko was at 100%, Lawson played 61.7% and Moats and Bradham were both at 25%.

 

http://espn.go.com/b...iew-linebackers

 

If we get a guy that takes all of those last 2's snaps, they'd still only be on the field 50% of the time.

 

The Bills situation is dictated by the fact that Kiko is the only 3-down linebacker that they have.

 

On teams that have two 3-down linebackers, both of those LBs play a very high percentage of snaps.

 

Some examples include Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly in Carolina, Bowman and Willis in San Francisco, Wagner and Wright in Seattle, Laurinaitis and Ogletree in St. Louis, Lavonte David and Mason Foster in Tampa Bay, and Karlos Dansby and Darryl Washington in Arizona.

 

There are more but you get the point.

 

If the Bills drafted a playmaker/difference maker 3-down linebacker in the draft, his contributions would be significant.

 

Moreover, the Bills are weak at outside linebacker.

[Cheddar's Dad]

No way we take one of the least important positions on the line at RT and make it a #9 overall pick. And if they do they should be fired immediately.

 

Now LT, maybe, but we already have a stud LT. RT we can get in the mid rounds along with a guard. Top 10 picks are for difference makers and no RT or LG in the NFL is a difference maker

 

Why do you say RT is least important? Back in the day of Bruce Smith, a team's best pass rusher generally always played RDE against a team's LT. That no longer is the case. Look at how Mario Williams is used by the Bills. Look at how the Patriots use Chandler Jones. On one play he's on the left side, next play he's on the right. RT's today require the same skill set as do LTs. Drafting a gifted collegiate LT to play RT is a sound move in my opinion. A solid O-line makes difference makers out of average WRs, TEs, QBs and RBs. Highly drafted WRs and TEs don't have a corresponding effect on average O-linemen. Drafting one of those early WRs and relying on low drafted, or free agent, O-linemen to fend off high drafted and talented D Linemen will cause those high WR picks to disappoint and have folks like you declaring them to be a busts after one year of play.

[BigBuff423]

The Bills situation is dictated by the fact that Kiko is the only 3-down linebacker that they have.

 

On teams that have two 3-down linebackers, both of those LBs play a very high percentage of snaps.

 

Some examples include Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly in Carolina, Bowman and Willis in San Francisco, Wagner and Wright in Seattle, Laurinaitis and Ogletree in St. Louis, Lavonte David and Mason Foster in Tampa Bay, and Karlos Dansby and Darryl Washington in Arizona.

 

There are more but you get the point.

 

If the Bills drafted a playmaker/difference maker 3-down linebacker in the draft, his contributions would be significant.

 

Moreover, the Bills are weak at outside linebacker.

 

Agreed. LB or WR is a good choice at #9...if they trade back, I suppose depending on how far back, nearly any position is in play and would be an acceptable use of its value.

[Astrobot]

It is early in the offseason. No free agency yet and not even the combine. As the team stands right now in personnel, they should focus on getting better in their red zone offense - too many field goals. Some may point to play calling, which may be part of the problem, but the Bills need to create mismatches by having more/better playmakers on offense. So a big WR, quality TE should be their focus. Also an upgrade at LG and RT should be a priority. On defense, we need a bigger ILB who can stuff the run and move Kiko to OLB. I also think the Bills should try to upgrade on Summers. They really could use a big back for 3rd and short situations.

This will be a deeper WR class than TE class, but I do think if you want to surround EJ with weapons, one way to do it is take the BEST (not tallest) WR or TE on the board in RD1--whichever is better value. Then by RD3, take the biggest, tallest, baddest redzone target. In between, take a versatile OL who has played OG (Yankey, Richardson, Su'a Filo---I think La'El Collins goes back to school) then take a WLB like Borland or DePriest in the 4th.

[simpleman]

This will be a deeper WR class than TE class, but I do think if you want to surround EJ with weapons, one way to do it is take the BEST (not tallest) WRor TEon the board in RD1--whichever is better value. Then by RD3, take the biggest, tallest, baddest redzone target. In between, take a versatile OL who has played OG (Yankey, Richardson, Su'a Filo---I think La'El Collins goes back to school) then take a WLB like Borland or DePriest in the 4th.

Thanks. Anyone have more info on Xavier Su'a-Filo. I can't find much on him. Might be a nice 3rd round pick if he was there. Any links?

[RCOHEN13]

I have seen a lot of Evans. At first I was really high on him because of his size but the more I watch him I have no idea how he will get seperation in the NFL. If they want a WR, Watkins is the guy. He is a complete WR and a sure fire stud IMO. I still think that Mack is the pick if he is still there (but I doubt he will be).

 

I think that Mack is the 2nd defensive player off the board behind only Clowney. I think that he will end up ahead of Barr as he is a much more complete and consistent player.

 

I the Bill stay at 9 I am saying Mack or Watkins. If they move around all bets are off.

 

I'm all in at WR... I too like Evans but can see him having same issues with getting seperation. Same was said about Alshon and he went in 20's which may be the guy Evans who will be compared most to. Will for sure be top 4 WR but i do like Watkins alot better than him, as well as Benjamin. Benjamin has the potential to be the next Calvin Johnson. This kid is HUGE, has phenominal leaping ability and is fast... He can take a slant to the house, he can beat DB;s on go route or be that stud red zone target we have lacked for yrs. #9 may be a high for him but he;s a redshirt sophomore who once season is over and its all about draft, i can see him being the WR that moves up charts and ends up being 2nd WR off board after Watkins.

 

Watkins will have scouts drooling.... i've watched at least half the Clemson games for yrs and he has been super productive since he arrived there. He's a better version of his team mate from 2012, Hopkins and will be a team's #1. The other guy who will probably get more pub as draft nears is Marquis Lee. After sub par yr number wise and having all sorts of ailments, this guy was by far the #1 coming into yr and for good reason. I watch almost all USC games and him and Woods were just a thing of beauty to watch together. Got very frustrating watching them this yr with QB woes but having that tandem in B-lo would be really nice too.

 

With Teddy, Bortles and Johnny Football all almost locks to be be top 10 picks, either by QB needy teams ahead of us and i can see someone coming in kinda out of no where and trade up to snag a QB. With 3 QB's, Clowney and Barr are also locks to be gone and throw in Matthews who is #1 LT and has pedigree to go with it. That;s 6 guys that ALL gonna be gone b4 us... Considering our pass rush set team records last yr, we would have no need for a luxury pick of Barr or Clowney, the draft could play out very nicely.

 

I want to love EJ (having alot of trouble doing so, but i def. do see the skill set to improve and think he will be significantly better next yr once he can have a full off season in system, and hopefully stay healthy to not stunt his development. Whether we like it or not, there is no way the brass will select a QB in 1st round... MAYBE if a QB they had as top 15 value was there with our 2nd rounder, hopefully they will give it a serious look either to push EJ, or say, this is a mans league, and young qb;s arent as risky anymore from a financial aspect and at least have 2 real prospects to develop.

 

If we dont go WR which i strongly think we should do, TE should be alternate. Ebron is an absolute beast and will be a better hands version of Vernon Davis. Not as sold on Amaro but thats probably cuz i havent seen him play very much but from what they are saying, him and Embron are neck and neck are clear cut top 2 TE's. Just scares me a bit to take a TE from TT where a TE is more of a WR than a true TE. I guess it would be considering so many teams employ 2 TE set and offense i look at from personnel standpoint that Marrone and co. i feel are on similar page with is Chip Kelly and Eagles. If EJ didnt have knee issues before season even started, i think we would have seen alot more read option packages as well as him being a true threat to run on scrambles instead of checking down so much, especially early in yr.

 

If not WR, or TE, i;d either go Mack who i'd LOVE to see next to Kiko or best Tackle left. Hopefully if we go in that direction, Robinson is there. I think he is better than Mathews but so hard to grade OL cuz there are no true stats, i think he gets nod cuz of pedigree and protecting blind side of Johnny. I'd be plenty happy with the "boring" pick of Robinson and either put him at RT or move Cordy over to right side, whichever Marrone and OL coach feel is best fit. I could see Hairston if healthy get moved inside to a guard and being very effective. Pears is nothing better than a roster spot guy who can be swing back up tackle if resigned.

[NewEra]

 

This will be a deeper WR class than TE class, but I do think if you want to surround EJ with weapons, one way to do it is take the BEST (not tallest) WR or TE on the board in RD1--whichever is better value. Then by RD3, take the biggest, tallest, baddest redzone target. In between, take a versatile OL who has played OG (Yankey, Richardson, Su'a Filo---I think La'El Collins goes back to school) then take a WLB like Borland or DePriest in the 4th.

 

Sounds good to me

[KOKBILLS]

Love the idea of trading back again this year to earn more picks.

 

Honest to God unless there is a no-miss QB available I feel this is ALWAYS a good strategy...