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Example of why we should not throw in the towel on Manuel... yet.


Coach55

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Quarterbacks almost exclude themselves from BPA planning. I think 4 Quarterbacks will in all likelyhood be off the board by the time the Bills pick at #9. I don't think they are 4 of the best 10 players in the draft. I could maybe make a case for 2 being in the top 10 but there are 5 teams above us that need a Quarterback and at least 4 of them will take one because of the importance of the position. The only teams in that top 9 that don't need are the Falcons (a good quarterback that had a down year with lots of injuries around him), the Rams (still not sure what they have in Bradford but still paying him that old mega bucks rookie contract) and then us and the Buccs both of whom have guys only 10 games into their NFL careers who have shown some flashes and some inconsistency. But there is no way that the 4 Quarterbacks likely to go in the top 10 are all genuine top 10 talents.

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TBD has many who ride the retard rollercoaster.

 

Friends of mine who are Pats, Jets, and Giants fans have all said to me that they they think EJ is the real deal and will be very good for us. TBD is sharpening their pitchforks and lobbying to spend a second consecutive first rounder on QB.

 

Patience grasshopper

 

^^^^^^ Nailed it.

Plus the naysayers may end up right or may end up wrong, but they have not a clue if he'll develop or not, and there is nothing that they know of about EJ that the staff isn't already aware of.

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I don't think the Bills will do this only because Manuel was Whaleys and Marrones first pick, they picked him in the first round, and was the first QB taken. Even showing doubt that they made a mistake would be very hard for them. I think they get the WR(s) and whatever else they feel the offense needs and roll the dice with Manuel.

 

I wanted to expand on my reply to this earlier but got busy at work...

 

I think although probably unlikely, it's possible Marrone and Whaley knew that they had to draft a QB last year and decided to swing for the fences, and in doing so also knew that they'd have another "at bat," the following year if they struck out (or were perhaps looking a strike or two, to continue the baseball metaphor).

 

So, it could be that as far back as last year they had considered the possibility of drafting QBs back to back, even before they knew that they'd get Manuel.

 

If that were the case, I don't think they would necessarily bow to the public perception that they are in love with Manuel just bc he was their first pick. I mean, I'm just spitballing here, but I think we all agree that they basically were forced to take a QB high in a class that was widely regarded as mediocre at best. I don't think they can be knocked for trying, so I don't know if they feel as married to Manuel as they would've been if Manuel had not been such a great need at the time.

 

Quarterbacks almost exclude themselves from BPA planning. I think 4 Quarterbacks will in all likelyhood be off the board by the time the Bills pick at #9. I don't think they are 4 of the best 10 players in the draft. I could maybe make a case for 2 being in the top 10 but there are 5 teams above us that need a Quarterback and at least 4 of them will take one because of the importance of the position. The only teams in that top 9 that don't need are the Falcons (a good quarterback that had a down year with lots of injuries around him), the Rams (still not sure what they have in Bradford but still paying him that old mega bucks rookie contract) and then us and the Buccs both of whom have guys only 10 games into their NFL careers who have shown some flashes and some inconsistency. But there is no way that the 4 Quarterbacks likely to go in the top 10 are all genuine top 10 talents.

 

You're probably right. When considering BPA, QB is one of the few positions that deserve an asterisk and some weight attached to their evaluation.

 

I guess not everyone does this, but when I think of "BPA," I'm really thinking of "Player Who Would Help a Team the Most." Not "my" team, in particular, but any team in general. So obviously QB resides on it's own plateau, followed by some of the other premier positions.

 

I guess it also boils down to what one's definition of "Best" is, and to whom or what one is comparing that player.

Edited by uncle flap
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I don't think you can give Manuel anything but an incomplete. He did some good things and also some boneheaded rookie things. He also has some mechanical and progression things to work through. I think its important that Marrone gets EJ a good QB coach to workon these things in the ooff season. My gut says the kid will be fine.

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Brees story is a good example, but I also like the Cam Newton story. Now he was #1 overall, but he finished 6-10'his rookie year. Meh ran all over the place, but had a lot to learn a as pocket passer, which he learned in year 2. He had a bad year last year. Now look at him in year 3 with good coaching a further development.

 

He's a much better pocket passer, and in this weekend's playoffs just like Brees. I'm fine with a second round QB if a good one, and we trade back to get a later 1st rounder and two seconds.

 

I really like EJ's demonstrated character and leadership. I want this kid to make it, and for all of us to remain calm and watch our team develop. Ralph has to stop blowing up the team every three years. So for now, I'm in on Whaley, Marrone and EJ.

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I don't think it is right(or even fair) to anoint EJ the starter for next season already, but that is exactly what the Bills have done.

 

No they haven't. They've annointed him top of the depth chart going into OTAs and most likely training camp. If they get a decent vet or a rookie who comes in and plays much better I think they'd put that guy in. EJ probably gets the nod if it's a tie between him and another.

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That strategy works if the QB is by far the better player than anyone else on the board.

 

FWIW, San Diego's decision-making process has led to a 4-4 record in the playoffs under Rivers, while Brees has gone 6-3 in the playoffs with a title in hand since leaving the Chargers.

 

You can say the Chargers played it safely - which they did - and came out competitive, but I think they'd give it all up if they knew they would have Brees playing like this + their first ever title.

 

Part of Brees not being kept by the Chargers was in large part to a pretty serious shoulder injury to his throwing arm that they didn't feel he would recover from properly...remember, there were not many teams clamoring for Brees when he was a free agent...only Miami and New Orleans showed significant interest if I remember correctly...

 

I agree with that personally, just not a 1st rounder...

 

Wouldn't mind seeing Mettenberger in the 3rd round if he falls...would have been a first rounder likely without the injury

Edited by matter2003
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Threads like this are funny. Take a QB. who was somewhat disappointing and find another who took a little while to shine.

 

Then posit that your QB might do the same. Might happen.

 

Let's not think about all of the QBs. that initially disappointed that went on to become busts, which is the far more common result.

 

Manuel might become great, but as of now that is sort of a long shot.

 

I don't like how many injuries he already has had, one of which was from a stupid play of his. I am also not fond of his throwing motion. This does not mean he will not have a good career, but cherry-picking another QB and extrapolating from there means zero.

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No reason to give up on Manuel yet. That decision comes at least a year or two or three down the road. however, since QB is the most important position on the field, I really hope the Bills find somebody that can compete with him either through the draft or FA. If they don't and Manuel doesn't pan out Marrone might be another coach that gets replaced in year 3 or 4.

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very true, and most would say that they held all the cards, since even an unproven Rivers would have brought draft picks.... this is really a win- win.

 

Lest we forget that they didn't actually draft Rivers, but instead got picks and Rivers in exchange for Eli, whom they did draft. Talk about a GM playing with house money.

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TBD has many who ride the retard rollercoaster.

 

Friends of mine who are Pats, Jets, and Giants fans have all said to me that they they think EJ is the real deal and will be very good for us. TBD is sharpening their pitchforks and lobbying to spend a second consecutive first rounder on QB.

 

Patience grasshopper

 

I'm with you about having patience. Wouldn't mind seeing some better options added...

 

But, getting back to what Pats and Jets fans think for a second. Around here, many people can't wait for Brady to retire and some are, well, over-the-top anti-Brady. On the other hand, many people here were enjoying the schadenfreude of the Mark Sanchez era. I know I wouldn't have minded the Jets going with Mr. "Butt Fumble" for a few more years. His play was downright comical many times. Seemed like there was some positive vibe about the Geno Smith meltdown last season as well.

 

Just saying. I'm not too sure what to make of Pats and Jets fans congratulating a Bills fan about something.

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Brees story is a good example, but I also like the Cam Newton story. Now he was #1 overall, but he finished 6-10'his rookie year. Meh ran all over the place, but had a lot to learn a as pocket passer, which he learned in year 2. He had a bad year last year. Now look at him in year 3 with good coaching a further development.

 

He's a much better pocket passer, and in this weekend's playoffs just like Brees. I'm fine with a second round QB if a good one, and we trade back to get a later 1st rounder and two seconds.

 

I really like EJ's demonstrated character and leadership. I want this kid to make it, and for all of us to remain calm and watch our team develop. Ralph has to stop blowing up the team every three years. So for now, I'm in on Whaley, Marrone and EJ.

I think a lot of the discussion in this thread makes sense on both sides....but to use Cam Newton as a comparison is not good for EJ at all. Let's not forget that Cam broke or came close to breaking a ton of rookie records for important things like yardage, 300 yard games and TDs. EJ has not even had a 300 yard game yet....so other than being tall, weight and skin color there isn't much in the way of a comparison. Edited by Garranimal
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Part of Brees not being kept by the Chargers was in large part to a pretty serious shoulder injury to his throwing arm that they didn't feel he would recover from properly...remember, there were not many teams clamoring for Brees when he was a free agent...only Miami and New Orleans showed significant interest if I remember correctly...

I acknowledged that earlier:

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/165044-example-of-why-we-should-not-throw-in-the-towel-on-manuel-yet/#entry3027497

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I've been squarely in the bet hedging club for months now. Big difference between giving up on someone and bringing in competition. It doesn't mean you sell the farm to do so, but you look for value. Draft, free agency or trade. I'm certainly not comfortable with Lewis and Tuel being behind Manuel, especially considering his injuries last season.

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