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Posted

The NFL is, more than ever before, a quarterback league. And we’ve got some great ones playing in these playoffs.

 

If the wild card weekend taught us anything, it’s that the NFL in 2014 is dominated by quarterbacks.

 

There were no 100-yard rushers. The flip side of the NFL being a league of great quarterbacks is that the running game has been de-emphasized. There wasn’t a single 100-yard runner in the NFL this weekend. In fact, it was a quarterback, Kaepernick, who led all runners in the wild card round with his 98-yard game against the Packers. Running backs just aren’t the NFL’s marquee players anymore.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/06/nfl-morning-after-a-great-time-for-great-quarterbacks/

 

 

 

look at the regular season ending Total QBR rankings.

 

11 of the 12 QB's who made the playoffs are in the TOP 15....... 8 of 8 of the remaining QB's are in the Top 15.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

 

 

EJ Manuel is ranked 28th in QBR. in my opinion, the best he will do is crack the Top 20. that ain't good enough.

 

if the 2013 Bills had a Top 15 QB we would of had 5 more wins. our team, warts and all is good enough just the way it is, if you just fix the QB position.

 

you could upgrade any other position on the team and it will only result in 1 more win.

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Posted

The NFL is, more than ever before, a quarterback league. And we’ve got some great ones playing in these playoffs.

 

If the wild card weekend taught us anything, it’s that the NFL in 2014 is dominated by quarterbacks.

 

There were no 100-yard rushers. The flip side of the NFL being a league of great quarterbacks is that the running game has been de-emphasized. There wasn’t a single 100-yard runner in the NFL this weekend. In fact, it was a quarterback, Kaepernick, who led all runners in the wild card round with his 98-yard game against the Packers. Running backs just aren’t the NFL’s marquee players anymore.

 

http://profootballta...t-quarterbacks/

 

 

 

look at the regular season ending Total QBR rankings.

 

11 of the 12 QB's who made the playoffs are in the TOP 15....... 8 of 8 of the remaining QB's are in the Top 15.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

 

 

EJ Manuel is ranked 28th in QBR. in my opinion, the best he will do is crack the Top 20. that ain't good enough.

 

if the 2013 Bills had a Top 15 QB we would of had 5 more wins. our team, warts and all is good enough just the way it is, if you just fix the QB position.

 

you could upgrade any other position on the team and it will only result in 1 more win.

The Bills find themselves in a "damned if you do or damned if you don't" conundrum - draft EJ in first round and he plays mediocre. Stick with EJ next year as starter and watch Manziel, Murray, Bortles, etc. light it up. Or draft one of the rookie QB's and find out they are also mediocre in the NFL. I am not suggesting any of these new QB's will be busts or superstars. It's a roll of the dice. As you say, if EJ was ranked 29th, they have to figure he will improve but at what level? They don't want to say "Hey, we !@#$ed up, Sorry fans" and draft another QB...likewise, they don't want to watch EJ regress next year and then know they passed on a successful rookie. Should be an interesting offseason.

Posted (edited)

 

The Bills find themselves in a "damned if you do or damned if you don't" conundrum - draft EJ in first round and he plays mediocre. Stick with EJ next year as starter and watch Manziel, Murray, Bortles, etc. light it up. Or draft one of the rookie QB's and find out they are also mediocre in the NFL. I am not suggesting any of these new QB's will be busts or superstars. It's a roll of the dice. As you say, if EJ was ranked 29th, they have to figure he will improve but at what level? They don't want to say "Hey, we !@#$ed up, Sorry fans" and draft another QB...likewise, they don't want to watch EJ regress next year and then know they passed on a successful rookie. Should be an interesting offseason.

The Bills are in the spot they're in because the FO never had a plan. The couple of drafts prior to 2013 were pretty good QB classes, yet the Bills chose to build a team first and get the QB later. They then decided to draft a QB in a very weak QB draft because they had to. Just as good coaches should change their schemes to match the players they have; FOs that are building a team through the draft should lay out a multi-year dafting strategy to match the players in the upcoming drafts.

 

Whether they draft a QB this year should come down to one question. What do the potential QBs look like in 2015? By all accounts, 2014 should have a couple of decent QBs. We need a QB desperately. Is EJ that guy? I don't know. But, I do know that if you don't draft someone high this year... and next year's class looks like 2012's, you're putting all your chips on EJ's knees.

 

The worst that you can do by drafting a good QB AND having EJ develop into a top 10 guy, is have a good player to trade in the future. The worst you can do by not drafting someone is have EJ bust out and be right back where we are... rebuilding. So, if 2015 doesn't look good for QBs, take one ..or two.. now!

Edited by Dan
Posted

The NFL is, more than ever before, a quarterback league. And we’ve got some great ones playing in these playoffs.

 

If the wild card weekend taught us anything, it’s that the NFL in 2014 is dominated by quarterbacks.

 

There were no 100-yard rushers. The flip side of the NFL being a league of great quarterbacks is that the running game has been de-emphasized. There wasn’t a single 100-yard runner in the NFL this weekend. In fact, it was a quarterback, Kaepernick, who led all runners in the wild card round with his 98-yard game against the Packers. Running backs just aren’t the NFL’s marquee players anymore.

 

http://profootballta...t-quarterbacks/

 

 

 

look at the regular season ending Total QBR rankings.

 

11 of the 12 QB's who made the playoffs are in the TOP 15....... 8 of 8 of the remaining QB's are in the Top 15.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

 

 

EJ Manuel is ranked 28th in QBR. in my opinion, the best he will do is crack the Top 20. that ain't good enough.

 

if the 2013 Bills had a Top 15 QB we would of had 5 more wins. our team, warts and all is good enough just the way it is, if you just fix the QB position.

 

you could upgrade any other position on the team and it will only result in 1 more win.

 

What was Nick Foles ranking last year? What was Eli Mannings ranking his rookie year? No one, including you, has any clue as to how good or bad of an NFL QB EJ Manuel will become. You may not like it, but he still gets his non-rookie 2nd year to prove the doubters right or wrong.

Posted

The Bills are in the spot they're in because the FO never had a plan. The couple of drafts prior to 2013 were pretty good QB classes, yet the Bills chose to build a team first and get the QB later. They then decided to draft a QB in a very weak QB draft because they had to. Just as good coaches should change their schemes to match the players they have; FOs that are building a team through the draft should lay out a multi-year dafting strategy to match the players in the upcoming drafts.

 

Whether they draft a QB this year should come down to one question. What do the potential QBs look like in 2015? By all accounts, 2014 should have a couple of decent QBs. We need a QB desperately. Is EJ that guy? I don't know. But, I do know that if you don't draft someone high this year... and next year's class looks like 2012's, you're putting all your chips on EJ's knees.

 

The worst that you can do by drafting a good QB AND having EJ develop into a top 10 guy, is have a good player to trade in the future. The worst you can do by not drafting someone is have EJ bust out and be right back where we are... rebuilding. So, if 2015 doesn't look good for QBs, take one ..or two.. now!

 

Absolutely. And I would add that we have to ask, based on the playoff games, how does a team get good as quickly as possible? It's by having the QB in place and building around that guy, not drafting defensive and offensive pieces. Not to rag on Nix again, but his strategy was to build the entire team and then get the QB. That's just not going to work in the current NFL. Each team has their flaws, but the common denominator is that QB who makes average players better and good players excellent. Who is Andrew Luck throwing to anyway?

 

I fear OBD will not take a QB for the same reason it seemed like Nix wouldn't. They were so proud of their hand-picked guy and wouldn't do a thing to make it seem they questioned him. Tell that to Seattle who, in that frame of mind, embarrassed themselves repeatedly before they drafted Russell Wilson.

Posted

I have to agree BillsVet, Nix had a plan and he followed that plan. He actually built a decent team. Then went and got a QB. Problem is... he laid out and implemented this plan without any fore sight. In today's NFL, with the prominence of the QB position, you're taking a huge gamble getting the QB last. So here we sit with a decent team and a huge question mark at QB. If we wait and he doesn't pan out, the decent team will be blown up and rebuilt again. Hence, I say...draft a QB. Get someone on this team that is not a question mark. If this draft is the one for a QB, take one or all.. just get one.

Posted (edited)

What was Nick Foles ranking last year? What was Eli Mannings ranking his rookie year? No one, including you, has any clue as to how good or bad of an NFL QB EJ Manuel will become. You may not like it, but he still gets his non-rookie 2nd year to prove the doubters right or wrong.

:thumbsup:

 

Take a long honest look at what the Bills tried to get accomplished last off season. They tried to trade for QB Alex Smith and KC trumped them. They tried to acquire QB Josh Freeman when he became available, and he chose Minnesota. They signed QB Kevin Kolb in free agency and didn't realize until it was to late that he was made of glass.

 

IMO the Bills drafted EJ in the hopes of bringing him along slowly, and letting him learn behind Kolb. Or perhaps hoping that he would beat out Kolb this season at some point.

 

Once EJ was the only option at QB they proceeded to build a fast paced "read option" offensive scheme. Then the biggest hurdle hit when EJ hurt his knee in pre season. So much for letting the QB run it this season with a dinged up knee!

 

So then the real read option went out the window, and now they were forced to try and mold a read option QB into a pocket passer asap. EJ only played in 10 games this season and with some very questionable players in front of him doing the blocking. That O line played particularly bad on the road against the Jets, Steelers, Saints, Bucs.

 

Hows about we wait to see how EJ performs with some upgrades to the O line, to perhaps a better receiving corps in terms of healthier players or new draft picks.

 

 

I think had the Bills fixed the Special Teams coach properly in the off season they might have won 3 more games just for that. Patriots, Browns, Bengals. If they had kept LG Chad Rinehart they could have won that first Jets game. Because lord only knows the Jets kept trying to lose it. 8 sacks on EJ was a huge reason for that loss. With a better run game the Bills score on first and goal against the Chiefs in the 3rd quarter, and play keep the ball away from Brady, and Falcon QB Matt Ryan. I see 3 to 6 games possibly lost because of of a bad O line, bad special teams. JMO

Edited by FeartheLosing
Posted

The Bills are in the spot they're in because the FO never had a plan. The couple of drafts prior to 2013 were pretty good QB classes, yet the Bills chose to build a team first and get the QB later. They then decided to draft a QB in a very weak QB draft because they had to. Just as good coaches should change their schemes to match the players they have; FOs that are building a team through the draft should lay out a multi-year dafting strategy to match the players in the upcoming drafts.

 

Whether they draft a QB this year should come down to one question. What do the potential QBs look like in 2015? By all accounts, 2014 should have a couple of decent QBs. We need a QB desperately. Is EJ that guy? I don't know. But, I do know that if you don't draft someone high this year... and next year's class looks like 2012's, you're putting all your chips on EJ's knees.

 

The worst that you can do by drafting a good QB AND having EJ develop into a top 10 guy, is have a good player to trade in the future. The worst you can do by not drafting someone is have EJ bust out and be right back where we are... rebuilding. So, if 2015 doesn't look good for QBs, take one ..or two.. now!

I have no problem drafting another QB very high in the draft again this year. But two? I think that's a stretch. Too many other needs on this team like O Line, LB, WR and secondary. I don't see them spending two picks ofn QB's, but if there is one there that they are projecting to be better than EJ, then by all means take him.
Posted

I have no problem drafting another QB very high in the draft again this year. But two? I think that's a stretch. Too many other needs on this team like O Line, LB, WR and secondary. I don't see them spending two picks ofn QB's, but if there is one there that they are projecting to be better than EJ, then by all means take him.

I totally agree with you. But, they need to hit on that pick (or on EJ). Picking a late round, hopeful, QB won't do it. Bottom line is simple, without a QB, you're a bottom feeder in this league. The Bills need a QB far more than a guard, WR, LB or anything.

Posted

It is a Quarterback league, no question, but I think a much better strategy for the Bills than going first round QB this year is to trade back in round 1 if at all possible, get another 2nd round pick... go O-line, TE, LB with your first three picks in 1st and 2nd and then take a Quarterback (a McCarron, a Murray or a Boyd) somebody like that who is still there in Round 3. Then you have addressed the three most glaring weaknesses outside of the QB position in your first three picks and have a guy to go into camp as the number 2 but with a chance to compete and win the job if they perform well enough. Then if it is EJ starts next year and by the end of next season it look like he isn't going to be the guy and we are sitting here 6-10 as usual then I would mortgage the house to get up for Mariota or Winston in the 2015 draft (hoping there is a team that are drafting in the top 2 or 3 who have their Quarterback but have had a down year).

 

Now I admit that's partly because I'm just not that high on Bridgewater, Carr or Manziel (I quite like what I've seen of Blake Bortles but it's a very small sample size) whereas I am high on Mariota and Winston. If Mariota was coming out this year and I thought there was a chance in hell of us getting him I'd be all for it. But it also gives EJ another year... because I always thought there was some talent there and still do. I'd like to see him injury free, with a full off-season, a better line, a big TE or reciever option and those 10 games of experience behind him before I discard him because discarding him now just feels like we could still end up having missed something.

 

The one fly in the ointment of my perfect plan (sarcasm alert) is if the guy you draft in round 3 beats EJ out as starter and goes 8-8 or 9-7 playing pretty well but misses the play-offs then you think "this is the more promising young QB" don't draft a Quarterback because your rookie has done well only to find that he doesn't kick on after that.. It's never an exact science though is it? You'd like to think though that even whilst sticking at this point with EJ (as the Bills surely will) they have some kind of strategy for if he doesn't take a big step next year. Whether they have or not is another questions.

Posted

There may not have been a 100 yard rusher but it's not like RBs didn't play a big factor this weekend. The Saints got over 90 yards from Mark Ingram and basically won that game by running the ball and good defense. Eddie Lacy and Gore also had big impacts in that game yesterday as well

Posted

The Bills find themselves in a "damned if you do or damned if you don't" conundrum - draft EJ in first round and he plays mediocre. Stick with EJ next year as starter and watch Manziel, Murray, Bortles, etc. light it up. Or draft one of the rookie QB's and find out they are also mediocre in the NFL. I am not suggesting any of these new QB's will be busts or superstars. It's a roll of the dice. As you say, if EJ was ranked 29th, they have to figure he will improve but at what level? They don't want to say "Hey, we !@#$ed up, Sorry fans" and draft another QB...likewise, they don't want to watch EJ regress next year and then know they passed on a successful rookie. Should be an interesting offseason.

 

The bills should give another year for EJ, but at the same time draft a QB in the 3rd or 4th round and develop him. They should NOT draft one in the 7th round or UDFA and hope he will become a star.

 

There may not have been a 100 yard rusher but it's not like RBs didn't play a big factor this weekend. The Saints got over 90 yards from Mark Ingram and basically won that game by running the ball and good defense. Eddie Lacy and Gore also had big impacts in that game yesterday as well

+1. Statistics always do not tell the whole tale.

Posted

 

 

Absolutely. And I would add that we have to ask, based on the playoff games, how does a team get good as quickly as possible? It's by having the QB in place and building around that guy, not drafting defensive and offensive pieces. Not to rag on Nix again, but his strategy was to build the entire team and then get the QB. That's just not going to work in the current NFL. Each team has their flaws, but the common denominator is that QB who makes average players better and good players excellent. Who is Andrew Luck throwing to anyway?

 

I fear OBD will not take a QB for the same reason it seemed like Nix wouldn't. They were so proud of their hand-picked guy and wouldn't do a thing to make it seem they questioned him. Tell that to Seattle who, in that frame of mind, embarrassed themselves repeatedly before they drafted Russell Wilson.

 

I think that KC, SF and Seattle all built much of the rest of their team before getting their QB. Do you disagree?

Posted (edited)

let's play GM.

 

you want to use a high draft pick on rookie X, and have an open competition for the starting, backup, and 3rd string QB positions - but you have to examine what options the results of such a competition will leave you with, in order to reach an acceptable comfort level in going forward.

 

would you make the decision to draft the QB if the resulting competition will leave you with the following options?

  • only a few options where both your 2013 1st round pick and 2014 pick get a chance to practice, let alone play.. and each of these requires you to use an inexperienced backup.
  • most of the options will force you to either put the development of one of them on hold, or release one, or risk losing one.

here are the results and options the above summary is based on:

 

what happens if Manuel earns the starting position, and..

 

1. X earns the backup role

1.a. X will get practice reps during the season with the 1st team offense, but you have an inexperienced backup

2 X earns the 3rd spot

2.a. X won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

2.b. X can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

2.c. X can be kept on the active roster

2.d. X can be released

3 X doesn't earn the backup or the 3rd spot

3.a. X will be released

 

what happens if X earns the starting position, and..

 

1. Manuel earns the backup role

1.a. Manuel will get practice reps during the season with the 1st team offense, but you have an inexperienced backup

2 Manuel earns the 3rd spot

2.a. Manuel won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

2.b. Manuel can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

2.c. Manuel can be kept on the active roster

2.d. Manuel can be released

3 Manuel doesn't earn the backup or the 3rd spot

3.a. Manuel will be released

 

what happens if neither Manuel or X earns the starting position, but Manuel earns the backup role, and...

 

1 X earns the 3rd spot

1.a. X won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

1.b. X can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

1.c. X can be kept on the active roster

2 X doesn't earn the 3rd spot

2.a. X will be released

 

what happens if neither Manuel or X earns the starting position, but X earns the backup role, and...

 

1 Manuel earns the 3rd spot

1.a. Manuel won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

1.b. Manuel can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

1.c. Manuel can be kept on the active roster

2 Manuel doesn't earn the 3rd spot

2.a. Manuel will be released

 

what happens if neither Manuel or X earn the starting position, and neither Manuel or X earn the backup role, and Manuel earns the 3rd spot..

 

1.a. Manuel won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

1.b. Manuel can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

1.c. Manuel can be kept on the active roster

1.d. Manuel can be released

1.e. X will be released

 

what happens if neither Manuel or X earn the starting position, and neither Manuel or X earn the backup role, and X earns the 3rd spot..

 

1.a. X won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

1.b. X can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

1.c. X can be kept on the active roster

1.d. X can be released

1.e. Manuel will be released

Edited by BackInDaDay
Posted (edited)

No one, including you, has any clue as to how good or bad of an NFL QB EJ Manuel will become. You may not like it, but he still gets his non-rookie 2nd year to prove the doubters right or wrong.

 

Carolina gave up on Jimmy Clausen after 1 season and 10 starts, so it does happen.

 

EJ has played in the league, so he has shown indicators. He has practiced and studied and shown his work ethic too, so its not like its still a blind toss-up to if he will be good or not. I remember with Maybin, that there where reports of the coaches being extremely disappointed with him after the first rookie mini camp or OTAs. Like after 2-3 practices, without pads, they already knew he stunk.

 

The mere fact that EJ was a 1st round pick should NOT be the reason we don't draft another QB this year. The reason should be that EJ has shown the coaches/FO enough to believe in him becoming 'the guy'.

 

From what I personally have seen, I'd give him a 10-20% chance of being 'the guy'. That's not high enough for me.

 

let's play GM.

 

you want to use a high draft pick on rookie X, and have an open competition for the starting, backup, and 3rd string QB positions - but you have to examine what options the results of such a competition will leave you with, in order to reach an acceptable comfort level in going forward.

 

would you make the decision to draft the QB if the resulting competition will leave you with the following options?

  • only a few options where both your 2013 1st round pick and 2014 pick get a chance to practice, let alone play.. and each of these requires you to use an inexperienced backup.
  • most of the options will force you to either put the development of one of them on hold, or release one, or risk losing one.

here are the results and options the above summary is based on:

 

what happens if Manuel earns the starting position, and..

 

1. X earns the backup role

1.a. X will get practice reps during the season with the 1st team offense, but you have an inexperienced backup

2 X earns the 3rd spot

2.a. X won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

2.b. X can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

2.c. X can be kept on the active roster

2.d. X can be released

3 X doesn't earn the backup or the 3rd spot

3.a. X will be released

 

what happens if X earns the starting position, and..

 

1. Manuel earns the backup role

1.a. Manuel will get practice reps during the season with the 1st team offense, but you have an inexperienced backup

2 Manuel earns the 3rd spot

2.a. Manuel won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

2.b. Manuel can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

2.c. Manuel can be kept on the active roster

2.d. Manuel can be released

3 Manuel doesn't earn the backup or the 3rd spot

3.a. Manuel will be released

 

what happens if neither Manuel or X earns the starting position, but Manuel earns the backup role, and...

 

1 X earns the 3rd spot

1.a. X won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

1.b. X can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

1.c. X can be kept on the active roster

2 X doesn't earn the 3rd spot

2.a. X will be released

 

what happens if neither Manuel or X earns the starting position, but X earns the backup role, and...

 

1 Manuel earns the 3rd spot

1.a. Manuel won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

1.b. Manuel can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

1.c. Manuel can be kept on the active roster

2 Manuel doesn't earn the 3rd spot

2.a. Manuel will be released

 

what happens if neither Manuel or X earn the starting position, and neither Manuel or X earn the backup role, and Manuel earns the 3rd spot..

 

1.a. Manuel won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

1.b. Manuel can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

1.c. Manuel can be kept on the active roster

1.d. Manuel can be released

1.e. X will be released

 

what happens if neither Manuel or X earn the starting position, and neither Manuel or X earn the backup role, and X earns the 3rd spot..

 

1.a. X won't get practice reps during the season, but he can run the scout team against the 1st team defense

1.b. X can be placed on the 'practice squad' where you risk losing him

1.c. X can be kept on the active roster

1.d. X can be released

1.e. Manuel will be released

 

Well I would hope that my FO is good enough to know that player X is already better than Manuel and would beat him out fairly easily. There would be no reason to draft Mr. X if he weren't going to upgrade the position fairly significantly.

Edited by peterpan
Posted (edited)

What's most interesting about the Eagles situation is Chip Kelly's insistence that NFL teams need two starting-caliber quarterbacks to make it through the season.

 

"It's a very, very difficult position to play. Everybody is hitting you, and they're protected by rules but they also still take some unbelievable shots," Kelly recently explained, via the Cowboys official website. "I think, if you're going to last as a team, you'd better have two."

 

http://www.nfl.com/n...gles-kelly-says

 

 

IMO: we're not even sure we have one....and unless EJ changes his running style, he won't make it through a season injury free.

Edited by papazoid
Posted

Well I would hope that my FO is good enough to know that player X is already better than Manuel and would beat him out fairly easily. There would be no reason to draft Mr. X if he weren't going to upgrade the position fairly significantly.

 

it's not a case of being 'good enough'.. there's no magic formula.. there's a very good chance that rookie X will have his own issues - regardless of his collegiate career. there's a very good chance that X's ability to adjust and thrive in the pro game may mirror Manuel's. then those options have you painted into the corner

 

What's most interesting about the Eagles situation is Chip Kelly's insistence that NFL teams need two starting-caliber quarterbacks to make it through the season.

 

"It's a very, very difficult position to play. Everybody is hitting you, and they're protected by rules but they also still take some unbelievable shots," Kelly recently explained, via the Cowboys official website. "I think, if you're going to last as a team, you'd better have two."

 

http://www.nfl.com/n...gles-kelly-says

 

 

IMO: we're not even sure we have one....and unless EJ changes his running style, he won't make it through a season injury free.

 

no one will disagree with that, but the key to what he's saying is having two 'starting caliber QBs' not two 'developing QBs'

Posted

Yes, its a quarterback driven league unless you have a Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees,Ben Roethlisberger or Aaron Rodgers you better keep drafting quarterbacks until you find guys like that, because if you don't you're going to be on the bottom of the s*** heap for 14 years just like the Bills are.

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