Comprehensive Bills O line evaluation thread

[BillsVet]

I agree with Bill from NYC's take. The Bills were embarrassed by a weak Tampa team due to the weakness in the middle of the offensive line.

 

Urbik was abused by the more nimble Gerald McCoy, who was named first team All-Pro this year. Urbik's strong suit is winning in the phone-booth, and he's playing RG because that position doesn't demand the mobility in most offenses.

 

And for the sake of discussion, many are discussing the concept of drafting tackles and making them guards when all else fails. That's a last resort for a tackle and not the ideal scenario. At the same time, some college tackles aren't going to transition to being NFL tackles and are more suitable to guard. It depends on the individual

 

The Bills seem willing to be a power blocking scheme, but they need more talent to do what they'd like offensively.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

All analysis, two coaching regimes and PFT write up seem to establish this:

 

Glenn is very good and only getting better

Wood is solid, a leader and here to stay

 

Then you have the rest of the spots, LG, RT and RG occupied by journeymen which all could be significantly upgraded.

 

Hairston likley has the best combination of size and potential among of Pears, urbik or Legursky.

 

 

Ps: Tight end blocking was atrocious this year.

[Pirate Angel]

Our QB play hinders our Oline as much as everyone else on offense. While we have plenty of room for improvement they provided decent pass protection most of the time, and as far as run blocking is concerned theres is only so much they can do when they consistently face 8 man fronts. We don't have talented enough receivers that call for a double team and nobody is a big threat over the middle. Manuel struggles to hit our speedsters down field Chandler and Stevie just aren't a big enough threat underneath.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Our QB play hinders our Oline as much as everyone else on offense. While we have plenty of room for improvement they provided decent pass protection most of the time, and as far as run blocking is concerned theres is only so much they can do when they consistently face 8 man fronts. We don't have talented enough receivers that call for a double team and nobody is a big threat over the middle. Manuel struggles to hit our speedsters down field Chandler and Stevie just aren't a big enough threat underneath.

I think the answer when there are 8 man fronts is to spread out the field and try slants and screens, rather than running up the middle as so often happens. Why this is an underused portion of our playbook is beyond me. NE does this all the time - they basically replace their run game with a short yardage passing game that gets 6/7 yards a clip, sometimes more, and force the defense into looks that are more favorable for the run. I know everybody wants a team that dictates the game and pushes everybody around, but there is more than one way to win in the NFL and I prefer a team that can keep defenses off balance with relatively the same personnel on the field.

 

It would help if we had some receivers with better hands who could go to the ground to get those passes that cannot be defended or caught by anybody else. Brady and Welker, now Edelman / Amendola make this work ALL. THE. TIME.

 

I have faith that Manuel will find the game slowing down when he heals up and gets another offseason in the system. Hopefully the coaches will put everybody in a better position, too.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

So, you're not ok with drafting a guard at #9? Your thought process is a little hard to discern, San Jose.

 

There are more than a few ways to build a winning team. You seem to be having trouble defining how you think a team should be built.

 

I go back to the idea expressed years ago that in Buffalo's climate you need a team that can run the ball. I know that this year's stats indicate that Buffalo ran the ball well this year. Stats can deceive and some of you have been deceived if you look at them and fail to notice that Buffalo has had difficulties running for TDs in the red zone or when opponents know Buffalo intends to run.

 

Our team cannot be described as being capable of imposing our offensive will on the opposition and that's the team I want for this city. I recall the Lombardy years when no one could stop the Green Bay sweep. It was Kramer and Thurston, two Hall of Fame guards, that made that offense go.

 

Marrone worries me. There are things that I like about him but the fact that he was an O-lineman may give him the impression that you can fit free agents into guard positions and succeed. It may be that some of the coaches he worked for felt that way and he accepted their line of thinking.

 

I wonder why he feels that, "as an offensive line coach I realize that you're not going to be able to spend top dollar for five offensive linemen". I ask why not. If there is a guard that is better than a tall WR at #9, and we really need a guard, he's going to select the WR? Players selected in the first round do not impact the salary structure under the current CBA nearly as much as they once did. And just as you might be able to hit on a quality guard with a 4th round pick, the same holds true for that tall WR, although, in both cases, the odds are against that happening. Can anyone dispute that the odds against you hitting on any player position become greater the farther down the draft list you go?

 

I think part of the problem is that if a guard misses a block and a runner is tackled behind the LOS or a QB is sacked, It is frequently not possible to know that if the block was made, that runner may have scored or that QB might have completed a pass for a TD. It's much easier to know when a runner or receiver crosses the goal line and harder to know that it was a key block by a guard that made the play a success. As a result, many fans want that receiver, TE, or runner. Fewer want that guard. Is Marrone one of those that want's that receiver or TE. He thinks he can develop the Ungas and Aspers and McClains. I think he thought that with Brown and Legursky. Is faulty thinking a recurring problem with Marrone. I think I'm more than a little concerned.

 

Without going into detail, I think your view of team building in today's NFL is somewhat obsolete.

 

As for my thought process, I've stated repeatedly over the months that until you're on the clock and know exactly what your options are, it's all conjecture as to what to do.

 

That said I'm generally against drafting a guard in the first round.

 

Only if it were the Bills most dire need and I could be guaranteed that the player was the second coming of Steve Hutchinson (17th overall) or Alan Faneca (26th overall) would I take a guard at #9 (see what I did there?).

 

Now last year's #7 pick was guard, Jonathan Cooper. Unfortunately he was injured in preseason and missed the entire regular season so he gets no grade.

 

Last year's #10 pick Chance Warmack only played in 10 games last year also due to injury so he gets no grade.

 

In 2012 David DeCastro was the first guard drafted (24th overall) but has unfortunately had injuries and played just 18 games in two years so he gets no grade.

 

Three picks later the Bengals took Kevin Zeitler at #27. He looks like he's gonna be a good one but again, he was drafted 27th overall, the first guard drafted after 2 OTs. We'll see if drafting Zeitler before Cordy Glenn and Mitchell Schwartz was a good idea or not.

 

In 2011 Danny Watkins was the first guard drafted (24th overall). Watkins is a bust. Even on one of the worst O-lines in football and even after the Incognito-Martin fiasco, Watkins could not break the starting lineup.

 

Guards by nature are guards because they're not talented enough to play tackle or center.

 

Guards can and are found in the later rounds. As long as I'm repeating myself I'll again point out that of the 5 guards on the 2013 All Pro team, 2 were drafted in the 3rd round and 2 were drafted in the 4th round.

 

Again there's a very good reason why it's NFL convention to not draft guards in the first 20 picks.

 

At this early juncture I believe that the Bills would be best served using their first round pick on a wide receiver and waiting until the 2nd or 3rd to address their offensive line needs.

Edited January 9, 2014 by San Jose Bills Fan

[TakeYouToTasker]

Again there's a very good reason why it's NFL convention to not draft guards in the first 20 picks.

 

At this early juncture I believe that the Bills would be best served using their first round pick on a wide receiver and waiting until the 2nd or 3rd to address their offensive line needs.

I'm of the opinion that unless you're talking about a very, very special player at some other impact position, that if you draft in the top 10, and aren't selecting a quarterback, a blind side pass protecter for your quarterback, or someone who sacks the quarterback then you're doing it wrong.

[ALF]

I would be ok with a RT in 1st rd, move Pears or Welch to LG.

[Cheddar's Dad]

Without going into detail, I think your view of team building in today's NFL is somewhat obsolete.

 

As for my thought process, I've stated repeatedly over the months that until you're on the clock and know exactly what your options are, it's all conjecture as to what to do.

 

That said I'm generally against drafting a guard in the first round.

 

Only if it were the Bills most dire need and I could be guaranteed that the player was the second coming of Steve Hutchinson (17th overall) or Alan Faneca (26th overall) would I take a guard at #9 (see what I did there?).

 

Now last year's #7 pick was guard, Jonathan Cooper. Unfortunately he was injured in preseason and missed the entire regular season so he gets no grade.

 

Last year's #10 pick Chance Warmack only played in 10 games last year also due to injury so he gets no grade.

 

In 2012 David DeCastro was the first guard drafted (24th overall) but has unfortunately had injuries and played just 18 games in two years so he gets no grade.

 

Three picks later the Bengals took Kevin Zeitler at #27. He looks like he's gonna be a good one but again, he was drafted 27th overall, the first guard drafted after 2 OTs. We'll see if drafting Zeitler before Cordy Glenn and Mitchell Schwartz was a good idea or not.

 

In 2011 Danny Watkins was the first guard drafted (24th overall). Watkins is a bust. Even on one of the worst O-lines in football and even after the Incognito-Martin fiasco, Watkins could not break the starting lineup.

 

Guards by nature are guards because they're not talented enough to play tackle or center.

 

Guards can and are found in the later rounds. As long as I'm repeating myself I'll again point out that of the 5 guards on the 2013 All Pro team, 2 were drafted in the 3rd round and 2 were drafted in the 4th round.

 

Again there's a very good reason why it's NFL convention to not draft guards in the first 20 picks.

 

At this early juncture I believe that the Bills would be best served using their first round pick on a wide receiver and waiting until the 2nd or 3rd to address their offensive line needs.

 

Conjecture is all we have to talk about right now.

 

Please go into detail. Tell me why you think my idea of building a team is obsolute. And please keep personal preferences and talk of old school vs. new school out of it.

 

David DeCastro, having been on injured reserve his rookie year, played this past year and has appeared as second team all pro on some lists. We need to wait on the injured players but there are talented people there and I'm confident that some will be appearing on pro bowl rosters soon.

 

Now, if you have a yen for reviewing recent draft history, lets take a look at recent 1st rd. WRs shall we???

 

2011 - A.J Green was selected #4 by Cinnci and has been an excellent pick having been selected 2nd team all pro in 2012 and 2013. Julio Jones, selected #6 by Atlanta has been good. Jonathan Baldwin, selected #26 by K.C. was considered a bust and traded this year to San Francisco for A.J. Jenkins, selected in the 1st. round in 2012 by San Francisco and also considered a bust.

 

2012 - Justin Blackman selected #5 by Jacksonville. How do you describe him? A head case?? Michael Floyd, #13 to Arizona, didn't do anything his rookie year but has shown signs of development this year. Kendall Wright, #20 by Tennessee, has he done anything??. Of course you know about A.J. Jenkins.

 

2013 - Travon Auston #8 to St. Louis. Somewhat disappointing although he did have one good game of note. DeAndre Hopkins, #27 to Houston, looks good. The interesting thing to me is he was considered to be not as good at Clemson as Sammy Watkins. Would I take Watkins if he were there at #9 this year? Yes I would. But, he will he be there? And if he is, do we trade down for more picks?

 

As you can see, there are hits and misses at every position but there seem to be more downright, uncontested misses at the 1st rd. drafted WR position than 1sr rd. drafted Guards (at least in the sample you've chosen).

 

Regarding NFL convention about drafting 1st. rd. Guards, did not notice last year's draft at all??? And about "NFL" convention, have you noticed how mediocre to downright bad many NFL teams are?? Could it be that following NFL "conventional thinking" is a good way to get yourself fired if you're a coach??? To be generally set against anything is to limit you thinking and your possibilities and that is, generally, not a good way to be.

[Dibs]

.....

As you can see, there are hits and misses at every position but there seem to be more downright, uncontested misses at the 1st rd. drafted WR position than 1sr rd. drafted Guards (at least in the sample you've chosen).

.....

 

You might be interested in these two studies I did last off season regarding the success rates of WRs and OLmen.

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155410-drafting-success-wr/

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155887-drafting-success-ol/

 

In short:

1st round OGs were nearly twice as successful in regards to becoming solid starters as 1st round WRs were......as well as having twice the "star" success rate.

 

2nd round OGs were however three times as successful in regards to becoming solid starters as 2nd round WRs were.....and four times as successful in becoming "star" players.

 

Due to the relatively low drop off from 1st round to 2nd round success with OGs compared to that of WRs, I tend to think drafting OGs in the 2nd round provides the better draft value in terms of potential success.

[JPS]

You might be interested in these two studies I did last off season regarding the success rates of WRs and OLmen.

http://forums.twobil...ing-success-wr/

http://forums.twobil...ing-success-ol/

 

In short:

1st round OGs were nearly twice as successful in regards to becoming solid starters as 1st round WRs were......as well as having twice the "star" success rate.

 

2nd round OGs were however three times as successful in regards to becoming solid starters as 2nd round WRs were.....and four times as successful in becoming "star" players.

 

Due to the relatively low drop off from 1st round to 2nd round success with OGs compared to that of WRs, I tend to think drafting OGs in the 2nd round provides the better draft value in terms of potential success.

Excellent post. So OT, TE, LB in the 1st, OG in the 2nd. I can live with that. Drafting another WR, at this point, is the dumbest thing I've read around here. You can't stop the run and have major holes on the O-line…..and that will be fixed by a WR?? I don't see it.

[Cheddar's Dad]

You might be interested in these two studies I did last off season regarding the success rates of WRs and OLmen.

http://forums.twobil...ing-success-wr/

http://forums.twobil...ing-success-ol/

 

In short:

1st round OGs were nearly twice as successful in regards to becoming solid starters as 1st round WRs were......as well as having twice the "star" success rate.

 

2nd round OGs were however three times as successful in regards to becoming solid starters as 2nd round WRs were.....and four times as successful in becoming "star" players.

 

Due to the relatively low drop off from 1st round to 2nd round success with OGs compared to that of WRs, I tend to think drafting OGs in the 2nd round provides the better draft value in terms of potential success.

 

This is quite good, Dibs. Nice to hear from a true statistician. Since Buffalo has needs at the RT and both guard positions that are, in my opinion, as important if not more so, than our needs at the WR and TE positions, we should draft an OT in the first and G in the second. This would be a strategy designed to use statistical probability to insure drafting success (a somewhat unconventional idea). It also supports my theory that providing the best possible support for your running and passing game with top notch O-linemen will help your QB, WRs and RBs look good and perform well even though they might have just average ability. If, as some here think, E.J. turns out to be average, giving him O-line support may get the best out of him, and perhaps, give Bills fans a QB we can win with.

[OCinBuffalo]

Hmmm....

 

 

At this point, would it be safe to say:

 

Wood and Glenn are fine. Everyone else is negotiable? By negotiable I mean: their positions can and should be targeted in FA and the draft.

 

So, that means we need at least 3 new players, LG, RG, RT, who can start at those positions. Meaning, they are viable replacements for the guys we have. I'm not including the "depth" guys here, because, if you think about it, there's really no difference between them, and the guys that are brought in to compete for a starting spot: in the end, if the new guys don't win the spot, either they, or the existing depth guys, make the team.

 

Who doesn't agree with that?

 

If we agree with the above...then, is it right to say "2 is 1, and 1 is none?" Meaning, unless we get one guy who we KNOW is going to come in and own their spot day 1....we need 2 each of LG, RG, RT to maximize our chances of getting a real starter.

 

So, really, we need 6 new O line guys. Agree?

 

If that is true, then, 3 of those guys should come from the draft, and 3 from FA. That's just smart use of resources.

 

Given Dibs(Edit: see now why I called him an expert? I admit that I confused what he was good at, but, he is good at something. ), and the rest of the work done here, it's seems logical to conclude: we need to spend 3 out of our first 5 picks on O line in the draft, AND, go get at least one 1st tier FA, and 2 2nd tier FA O lineman.

 

This would seem to be the only way maximize our chances of ending up with a good O line.

 

Now, if that's too many resources spent?

 

My 2nd to last question: how do you modify 3/1-5 O line in the draft, and 3 FAs to fit cap/other positional needs?

 

My last question: how does this fit into BPA? Should we be reaching for O lineman? Or, again given Dibs, should the "reach number"(meaning, the amount of slots at the point the player was drafted, ahead of where he should have been) be modulated, due to the propensity of guards to over-perform their draft position?

Edited January 9, 2014 by OCinBuffalo

[Rob's House]

It occurs to me that a limitation in our abilities to determine the proper course for the Bills in this regard is our lack of knowledge regarding how the coaching staff intends to run the offense.

 

For example, if they see Spiller as an asset to build around the decisions on the line will be different from the approach they may take if they plan to move on from him and go to a more pure power running game. If they plan to bale on the "waterbug" game, a big bodied back and a mauling LG should be sufficient upgrades. If, on the other hand, they want to maximize Spiller they need to prioritize getting strong athletic linemen that can get out in space and make key blocks. If he gets that he'll carve up defenses. Otherwise he's going to be streaky.

 

If you go back and watch the second Jets game closely you'll see that there was no way that CJ was going to do what he does behind the blocking of the Bills line against NY's D. If he was a 230lb. freight train he could lower his shoulder and barrel ahead for a yard or two on a lot of those plays that went for losses, but that's not his game.

 

There was one play in that game where the first time I watched I wondered why he chose to run where he did b/c it appeared to me he opted against the open hole where the play was designed and went to the other side of the C. When I slowed it down I realized the DT was being held back by Urbik (who again, can hold his ground but isn't great at imposing his will) but the DT shifted to the hole where Spiller was going to run with great ease - it was actually impressive that Spiller diagnosed this so quickly and tried to redirect to pick up yards. This is where he gets the reputation for dancing rather than hitting the hole. If he were a power back I'd agree he should plow ahead, but again, that's not his game. If you want the 50 yd gain you'be got to give him a hole to run through. There were a lot of plays like this throughout that game.

[Nitro]

Build the Offensive line. Good lines make QBs and RBs better. Teams have be strong up the middle on offense and defense. Inside out. The Bills need better guard play because Soliai (Miami), Wilfork (NE) and Wilkerson/Richardson (NYJ) have dominated the line. I'd rather Bills invest in the line than WR or TE. Offensive line is like the foundation of your house. If it is weak the rest of the structure fails.

[Bill from NYC]

It occurs to me that a limitation in our abilities to determine the proper course for the Bills in this regard is our lack of knowledge regarding how the coaching staff intends to run the offense.

 

For example, if they see Spiller as an asset to build around the decisions on the line will be different from the approach they may take if they plan to move on from him and go to a more pure power running game. If they plan to bale on the "waterbug" game, a big bodied back and a mauling LG should be sufficient upgrades. If, on the other hand, they want to maximize Spiller they need to prioritize getting strong athletic linemen that can get out in space and make key blocks. If he gets that he'll carve up defenses. Otherwise he's going to be streaky.

 

If you go back and watch the second Jets game closely you'll see that there was no way that CJ was going to do what he does behind the blocking of the Bills line against NY's D. If he was a 230lb. freight train he could lower his shoulder and barrel ahead for a yard or two on a lot of those plays that went for losses, but that's not his game.

 

There was one play in that game where the first time I watched I wondered why he chose to run where he did b/c it appeared to me he opted against the open hole where the play was designed and went to the other side of the C. When I slowed it down I realized the DT was being held back by Urbik (who again, can hold his ground but isn't great at imposing his will) but the DT shifted to the hole where Spiller was going to run with great ease - it was actually impressive that Spiller diagnosed this so quickly and tried to redirect to pick up yards. This is where he gets the reputation for dancing rather than hitting the hole. If he were a power back I'd agree he should plow ahead, but again, that's not his game. If you want the 50 yd gain you'be got to give him a hole to run through. There were a lot of plays like this throughout that game.

 

Spiller, although talented, is not a player to build a team around. He is a situational player.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Conjecture is all we have to talk about right now.

 

Please go into detail. Tell me why you think my idea of building a team is obsolute. And please keep personal preferences and talk of old school vs. new school out of it.

 

David DeCastro, having been on injured reserve his rookie year, played this past year and has appeared as second team all pro on some lists. We need to wait on the injured players but there are talented people there and I'm confident that some will be appearing on pro bowl rosters soon.

 

Now, if you have a yen for reviewing recent draft history, lets take a look at recent 1st rd. WRs shall we???

 

2011 - A.J Green was selected #4 by Cinnci and has been an excellent pick having been selected 2nd team all pro in 2012 and 2013. Julio Jones, selected #6 by Atlanta has been good. Jonathan Baldwin, selected #26 by K.C. was considered a bust and traded this year to San Francisco for A.J. Jenkins, selected in the 1st. round in 2012 by San Francisco and also considered a bust.

 

2012 - Justin Blackman selected #5 by Jacksonville. How do you describe him? A head case?? Michael Floyd, #13 to Arizona, didn't do anything his rookie year but has shown signs of development this year. Kendall Wright, #20 by Tennessee, has he done anything??. Of course you know about A.J. Jenkins.

 

2013 - Travon Auston #8 to St. Louis. Somewhat disappointing although he did have one good game of note. DeAndre Hopkins, #27 to Houston, looks good. The interesting thing to me is he was considered to be not as good at Clemson as Sammy Watkins. Would I take Watkins if he were there at #9 this year? Yes I would. But, he will he be there? And if he is, do we trade down for more picks?

 

As you can see, there are hits and misses at every position but there seem to be more downright, uncontested misses at the 1st rd. drafted WR position than 1sr rd. drafted Guards (at least in the sample you've chosen).

 

Regarding NFL convention about drafting 1st. rd. Guards, did not notice last year's draft at all??? And about "NFL" convention, have you noticed how mediocre to downright bad many NFL teams are?? Could it be that following NFL "conventional thinking" is a good way to get yourself fired if you're a coach??? To be generally set against anything is to limit you thinking and your possibilities and that is, generally, not a good way to be.

 

You asked me:

 

"So, you're not ok with drafting a guard at #9?"

 

I gave a very clear and well-supported argument which in this case happens to be conventional thinking.

 

As for last year, have you considered that it was a one-year aberration? An outlyer?

[Trader]

I agree. I don't see enough holes for the backs to run through. Nor do I see enough push in short yardage situation. In short yardage, we're actually getting pushed back more often than not.

 

Pass protection could be better too. Clearly guys like Brady and Brees simply have more talent than many of their peers. But there's a strong correlation between pass protection and passing productivity. QBs with clean pockets usually do well. EJ, CJ and Fredex would all benefit from a better O Line.

This post makes a lot of sense to me. The tape that the average fan gets makes it difficult or impossible to id much on an individual lineman basis but some things are obvious. I would add to these observations that the Bills line seems weak at the execution of the screen play. The QB had difficulty stepping into his throws because a pass rusher is in his face. How much of EJ's footwork is affected by his need to avoid the rush? Also blocking at the second level is weak which is obvious from the film that the fan can access. I will take the coach's word for it that Woods and Glenn are good players. The rest need improvement and I would include the Tight Ends who in my book function as offensive lineman fifty percent of the time.

[timtebow15]

I don't think Pears is that bad. Remember, the guards were so bad it's a wonder the line held up at all. I think we try to renegotiate his salary and between Hairston and Pears we are okay. Bring in one very good free agent guard and draft another to compete with the young guys we have that Marone says he likes. We have a lot of holes to fill so, as much as we'd like, that's probably our best case scenario. They aren't going to get a high-priced guard and tackle in FA. Remember that always doesn't work either (Dockery and that other guy!). Legursky needs to be replaced and, in a perfect world Urbik is a depth guy. The line wasn't horrible. The run game was okay and they had to protect QBs that weren't a whole lot of help as far as knowing what to do with the ball quickly.

[BillnutinHouston]

 

Well then. They are signed up. Too bad if they don't like it. PM them, and tell them that their presence is required.

 

Signed up.

 

Not signed up.

 

If you can't or won't get into the skill set of each...then this thread...is not for you.

 

This is the: Comprehensive Bills O Line Evaluation thread.

Not the: Comprehensive College O Line Prospects Evaluation thread.

 

I appreciate the effort and enthusiasm of looking at the college guys, but, it's just not enough for this thread.

 

Signed up...barely.

 

Need more here. For example: why are you convinced that Urbik was hurt? Why can't Pears be a starter?

 

 

Not signed up.

 

Throwing names at us, without rationale and/or backed up by stats = FAIL. FAIL will not be tolerated.

 

Compliance is mandatory.

Outstanding thread enforcement. I like it.

 

BTW, not asking to be signed up.

[papazoid]

STUDS : cordy glenn & eric wood

 

STINKS: everyone else

 

 

the Bills Offensive Line gave up the 4th MOST SACKS (48) in the league.

 

in rushing yards per attempt the bills were ranked 14th. (we had the most rushing attempts by far, 546).

 

 

if your not going to upgrade the QB position....then at least keep him upright and improve the O-line.