vegas55 Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Thought it was interesting when asked about the disappointing 6-10 season and what the Bills need to do better, the first thing out of Coach Marrone's mouth was his tried and true stat about the key to winning is winning the turnover battle. I doubt that he appreciates the irony. He is just coming off a loss to the Patriots in a game where his team won the turnover battle. In fact, in the season opening loss to the Pats his team also won the turnover battle. And lost several more games this season when they won the turnover battle. On top of all that, right before latest loss, on WGR, Coach M gave out another key stat - that the Pats have a terrible record in games where they don't force a turnover. Well Coach, they did not force a turnover on Sunday but still clobbered your team. Look I like Marrone and think he is a good fit with the Bills, but it's clear through his interviews etc that he does not really buy into cutting edge analytics. So he trots out these old school tried and true stats, that certainly have some validity but did not work or apply to the team he coached this year. And it's my hope that he will embrace a more analytical, self analysis type approach in figuring out why his team, and his offensive approach results in his team losing so many games where they win the turnover battle. Contrary to his statement, the key to the Bills winning games this year had relatively little to do with the turnover stat, and he needs to figure out why that was.
thebandit27 Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Thought it was interesting when asked about the disappointing 6-10 season and what the Bills need to do better, the first thing out of Coach Marrone's mouth was his tried and true stat about the key to winning is winning the turnover battle. I doubt that he appreciates the irony. He is just coming off a loss to the Patriots in a game where his team won the turnover battle. In fact, in the season opening loss to the Pats his team also won the turnover battle. And lost several more games this season when they won the turnover battle. On top of all that, right before latest loss, on WGR, Coach M gave out another key stat - that the Pats have a terrible record in games where they don't force a turnover. Well Coach, they did not force a turnover on Sunday but still clobbered your team. Look I like Marrone and think he is a good fit with the Bills, but it's clear through his interviews etc that he does not really buy into cutting edge analytics. So he trots out these old school tried and true stats, that certainly have some validity but did not work or apply to the team he coached this year. And it's my hope that he will embrace a more analytical, self analysis type approach in figuring out why his team, and his offensive approach results in his team losing so many games where they win the turnover battle. Contrary to his statement, the key to the Bills winning games this year had relatively little to do with the turnover stat, and he needs to figure out why that was. I think it's less about winning being connected to turnovers, and more about the idea that winning the turnover battle puts the team in the best position to win games. Obviously they need to execute once they have the ball. As for his talking points, I think you're right that he'd do better to avoid trotting out stats if he's not directly connected to the analytical side of things. I think he's better suited to being frank and direct.
metzelaars_lives Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Thought it was interesting when asked about the disappointing 6-10 season and what the Bills need to do better, the first thing out of Coach Marrone's mouth was his tried and true stat about the key to winning is winning the turnover battle. I doubt that he appreciates the irony. He is just coming off a loss to the Patriots in a game where his team won the turnover battle. In fact, in the season opening loss to the Pats his team also won the turnover battle. And lost several more games this season when they won the turnover battle. On top of all that, right before latest loss, on WGR, Coach M gave out another key stat - that the Pats have a terrible record in games where they don't force a turnover. Well Coach, they did not force a turnover on Sunday but still clobbered your team. Look I like Marrone and think he is a good fit with the Bills, but it's clear through his interviews etc that he does not really buy into cutting edge analytics. So he trots out these old school tried and true stats, that certainly have some validity but did not work or apply to the team he coached this year. And it's my hope that he will embrace a more analytical, self analysis type approach in figuring out why his team, and his offensive approach results in his team losing so many games where they win the turnover battle. Contrary to his statement, the key to the Bills winning games this year had relatively little to do with the turnover stat, and he needs to figure out why that was. What do you want them to lose the turnover battle? Way more often than not, you win the turnover battle, you win the football game. If that didn't happen to us a few times this year it was an anomaly and we'll make up for it by winning all of them next year. Not sure exactly what you're trying to say here.
Dibs Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 The thing that I don't like about Marrone's views on analytics is that he believes in reacting to an individual opponent based upon what they have statistically shown. For instance, if your opponent uses a certain defence 70% of the time, and another defence 30% of the time......you run 7 plays that can beat the first D and 3 plays that can beat the 2nd. (He has stated this precise concept). The problem of course is that your opponents know you will be doing this so they will change the frequency of what they play. Even in the FO presser he stated that many teams showed new looks that they had never shown prior.....and the coaches had not prepared EJ for those looks as consequence. IMO using analytics to help predict against a specific opponent is hazardous at best.......and I really hope that Marrone is overstating things for the media's benefit.
dave mcbride Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 A crazy theory I've had for years about turnovers: ones that occur between the 40s really don't matter much. It's no given that your team will score when they're at midfield, and it's no given that the opponent will score from about midfield after they force a turnover. Turnovers that occur or end up between the 40 yard line and the goal line for either team usually either put points on the board or take them off. At either of the 45 yard lines? Not so much. The Bills pick of Brady occurred at midfield.
zow2 Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 The most important stats directly tied to winning/losing are turnovers and 3rd down conversion %. If you suck at those 2 things...your team will lose ALOT. So for Marrone to say a good turnover ratio is the key to winning is absolutely a true factoid. The problem is that turnovers are completely random. Every team tries to strip ball carriers, tip passes, etc... Some years you get 'em, some years you don't. As always, the more consistent way to win is to have a solid QB (hence good at 3rd down conversions)...and a stout defense.
dave mcbride Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 The most important stats directly tied to winning/losing are turnovers and 3rd down conversion %. If you suck at those 2 things...your team will lose ALOT. So for Marrone to say a good turnover ratio is the key to winning is absolutely a true factoid. The problem is that turnovers are completely random. Every team tries to strip ball carriers, tip passes, etc... Some years you get 'em, some years you don't. As always, the more consistent way to win is to have a solid QB (hence good at 3rd down conversions)...and a stout defense. I thought the stat wasn't turnovers per se but points off of turnovers (including both points scored and points prevented if the other team was inside your 30 when they turned it over -- i.e., in FG range).
vegas55 Posted December 31, 2013 Author Posted December 31, 2013 What do you want them to lose the turnover battle? Way more often than not, you win the turnover battle, you win the football game. If that didn't happen to us a few times this year it was an anomaly and we'll make up for it by winning all of them next year. Not sure exactly what you're trying to say here. Of course winning the turnover battle is a great thing. And of course the stat that shows NFL teams that win the turnover battle most often win the game, is a valid and important stat. The point is why is this Bills team such an anomaly, why are they losing so many of those games. This should be Marrone's focus. Is it because his offense is too conservative ie plays not to turn the ball over? I just thought it ironic that he trotted out his favorite stat, a stat that for much of the season did not apply to his team.
metzelaars_lives Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Of course winning the turnover battle is a great thing. And of course the stat that shows NFL teams that win the turnover battle most often win the game, is a valid and important stat. The point is why is this Bills team such an anomaly, why are they losing so many of those games. This should be Marrone's focus. Is it because his offense is too conservative ie plays not to turn the ball over? I just thought it ironic that he trotted out his favorite stat, a stat that for much of the season did not apply to his team. It's because they have not yet learned how to win. I know it's cliché but it's true. They no linger have a roster bereft of talent, they have the makings of a good football team. Hey they outgained their opponents this season for the first time since 2004. But it's still a losing culture and that's what they have to break out of.
Luxy312 Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 I don't have a problem with what he said. Simply winning the turnover battle by ONE is not a telling stat in a game. Teams win about 70% of the time when they're +1 in the turnover battle. Go +2 and historically teams win 90% of games. Go +3 and it's over 95%. Neither of those are 100%, but turnovers are the absolute #1 predictor of success in the NFL. Should we really be surprised that 7 of the 12 playoff teams are in the top-10 in net turnovers? Statistically speaking when you start doing odds ratios, it's a fairly telling measure of a teams success. Buffalo ranked 19th in the NFL in giveaways and were essentially below average. It doesn't matter that they were 9th in takeaways when they balance it out by giving the ball back.
1B4IDie Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Thought it was interesting when asked about the disappointing 6-10 season and what the Bills need to do better, the first thing out of Coach Marrone's mouth was his tried and true stat about the key to winning is winning the turnover battle. I doubt that he appreciates the irony. He is just coming off a loss to the Patriots in a game where his team won the turnover battle. In fact, in the season opening loss to the Pats his team also won the turnover battle. And lost several more games this season when they won the turnover battle. On top of all that, right before latest loss, on WGR, Coach M gave out another key stat - that the Pats have a terrible record in games where they don't force a turnover. Well Coach, they did not force a turnover on Sunday but still clobbered your team. Look I like Marrone and think he is a good fit with the Bills, but it's clear through his interviews etc that he does not really buy into cutting edge analytics. So he trots out these old school tried and true stats, that certainly have some validity but did not work or apply to the team he coached this year. And it's my hope that he will embrace a more analytical, self analysis type approach in figuring out why his team, and his offensive approach results in his team losing so many games where they win the turnover battle. Contrary to his statement, the key to the Bills winning games this year had relatively little to do with the turnover stat, and he needs to figure out why that was. I think the key is scoring more points than your opponent. That leads to winning more times than not.
dave mcbride Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Of course winning the turnover battle is a great thing. And of course the stat that shows NFL teams that win the turnover battle most often win the game, is a valid and important stat. The point is why is this Bills team such an anomaly, why are they losing so many of those games. This should be Marrone's focus. Is it because his offense is too conservative ie plays not to turn the ball over? I just thought it ironic that he trotted out his favorite stat, a stat that for much of the season did not apply to his team. To reiterate, my understanding is that the key stat is not turnovers, but points off of turnovers.
bobobonators Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 It's because they have not yet learned how to win. I know it's cliché but it's true. They no linger have a roster bereft of talent, they have the makings of a good football team. Hey they outgained their opponents this season for the first time since 2004. But it's still a losing culture and that's what they have to break out of. Theres definitely something to this
Mango Posted December 31, 2013 Posted December 31, 2013 I think it's less about winning being connected to turnovers, and more about the idea that winning the turnover battle puts the team in the best position to win games. Obviously they need to execute once they have the ball. As for his talking points, I think you're right that he'd do better to avoid trotting out stats if he's not directly connected to the analytical side of things. I think he's better suited to being frank and direct. Agreed, he talks a lot about statistics, but on how many 3rd and mid/shorts do we run a play with 2 receivers running two go routes and if we are lucky a tight end running an in/out route (if it isn't a a go route). The chances of completing those go routes is approximately 10-15%. Lets talk about that glaring statistic. That is one of the questions I want answered. It is one of the most, if not the most, glaring mistake in play calling this team seems to run consistently.
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