Exhaustive film study: EJ's strengths and weaknesses

[BringBackFergy]

My opinion:

 

Strengths: Nice guy, strong arm, tall

 

Weakness: Knee ligaments

[Johnny Hammersticks]

 

 

Framing the opposing viewpoint in exaggerated terms is poor form, I think you want to see more from a first year QB than we did from Manuel before you stand pat and that is all some of us are saying. I hope Manuel develops and becomes a franchise QB, but I'm not betting next season on it. I haven't seen enough from him. Another QB with potential needs to be added in some fashion.

 

You're right I will try again.

 

Okay, so you've determined after 2 preseason games and 10 regular season games that EJ Manuel does not have the potential to be the Bills "franchise" QB moving forward?

 

Since you mentioned that a veteran "re-tread" would not suffice in bolstering the QB position, would you like to see the Bills draft a QB every year until they find a player who demonstrates (during their rookie season) that they are immediately ready to be a NFL "franchise" QB?

 

Looks like I did a nice job paraphrasing your earlier post. Is this accurate in describing your sentiment with regard to the Bills' QB position?

Edited December 29, 2013 by Johnny Hammersticks

[BarleyNY]

 

 

You're right I will try again.

 

Okay, so you've determined after 2 preseason games and 10 regular season games that EJ Manuel does not have the potential to be the Bills "franchise" QB moving forward?

 

Since you mentioned that a veteran "re-tread" would not suffice in bolstering the QB position, would you like to see the Bills draft a QB every year until they find a player who demonstrates (during their rookie season) that they are immediately ready to be a NFL "franchise" QB?

 

Looks like I did a nice job paraphrasing your earlier post. Is this accurate in describing your sentiment with regard to the Bills' QB position?

 

That is very reasonable. I have not made the determination that Manuel is not a franchise QB. He should get more opportunities here. He has potential and it would be great if he reaches it. I think we will know early next season if he's made strides. What I think must be mitigated is the risk that he doesn't - be it because he doesn't raise his level of play or because of injury issues. I don't think any of us want to be midway through next season and have no other options. That doesn't mean going all out and trading up or even using our first round pick on one. I'd say it depends on value and who is available but somewhere, somehow a QB with potential to be more than a backup needs to be acquired. The probable place for that is the draft in rounds 2-4, but I don't have an issue with the right kind of retread. I'd take a player that might be miscast or still has room for development. Someone young would be preferable. I'd only go with a veteran at the end of their career as a last resort. QB is just too important and there is too much talent on this team to put so much on Manuel working out. If the Bills were in total rebuild mode then fine, but not as we sit now. Manuel just has too many questions unanswered.

Edited December 29, 2013 by BarleyNY

[Ronin]

I wonder if Whaley/Marrone/Hackett now have enough EJ tape to make a decent assessment of if he'll be capable of leading this team to the playoffs?... and be a consistently good to very good qb?

 

If not, I suppose the draft will be telling. If they have enough doubt about EJ, then you would assume that they will draft another qb fairly high; one that they believe has the potential to be very good.

 

This is a win-NOW business, and I can't imagine that they will stick with EJ all of next year if he struggles; and not have an option that represents legitimate hope (a high potential draft pick, not Thad).

 

My big concern is that EJ will be a bust, and we'll have to wait for 2015 draft for another glimmer of hope.

 

Good post. As to your first point/question, they had this info prior to drafting him. In fact, there was a fantastic piece on Manuel that pretty much says the same things, and many of the reasons why, for the conclusions made by us and by the Buffalo Rumblings piece.

 

Again, here it is, it won't and shouldn't give anyone any confidence that Manuel will ever be a top NFL QB.

 

http://www.tomahawknation.com/2013/4/25/4264734/nfl-draft-2013-ej-manuel-next-level-florida-state

 

Read thru it, it's a fantastic pre-Draft piece on him. I guess I don't understand two things, why people getting paid millions I suppose first of all didn't see this piece, and if they did, why did they ignore it, and secondly, why they can't make these assessments on their own for players that they "have to have."

 

I mean isn't that part of the job for these highly paid coaches and scouts with highly sought after jobs in the NFL? Clearly it is, so why is it that two amateur reporters do a better job than the pros. (entirely rhetorical)

 

As to the rest of your post, this situation underscores the single biggest flaw with this organization, namely that they have no vision. They seem to forever be out of sync with the Drafts every season.

 

For example, everyone knew, or should have known, that this upcoming Draft would be QB rich, so why not bide one's time and wait for this year's Draft to get that franchise QB, or at least one that had a much better shot at becoming one than Manuel did or does. But nooooo, this team "had to have" Manuel because "he was their guy."

 

Well, OK, but that then says something, and what it says is that clearly whomever's guy it was didn't know what he was doing or thinking.

 

Also, the only thing standing in the way of the notion that Manuel would have been available in round 2 or 3 are rumors and speculations. There's not one shred of evidence that suggests that Manuel wouldn't have been around in round 2 if they really "had to have him."

 

No biggie if he works out, but clearly he isn't "that kind of QB."

 

So now the team faces a dilemma. I agree with you, they need a QB and should grab one with their first pick this year. But what would that say if they did?

 

First, the person that "had to have Manuel," namely Marrone, would have egg all over his face and look like the fool that he might very well be. He certainly would appear to be in over his head already, which IMO he is anyway.

 

Secondly, it would say that of the entire scouting staff, not one person, presumably, had the balls to stand up to the team and lay out their own assessment that Manuel was overrated by the decision makers.

 

Thirdly, it would also create a QB controversy situation since any rookie is likely to have rookie struggles, ones that don't necessarily translate to a lack of hope for the future, that might invariably cause the coaching staff to swap QBs next season between the two giving neither the appropriate shot at success.

 

This situation has "Bills" written all over it in so many ways.

 

One of the biggest problems over the years has been the inability of the FO to piece together enough talent to build an actual good team. They whiff on high draft picks, don't select others that would have been much better had the FO known what they were doing, like Russell Wilson. And honestly, how does one "have to have Manuel" but with the same FO and scouts overlook Wilson the year prior? (again, entirely rhetorical since we all know that our FO blows monkey chunks)

 

There are no visionaries in positions of power in this FO. It's the gift tht keeps on giving, ineptitude and incompetence. There's no use in even hoping for change, it'll never happen with this crew.

 

I'm sure that they'll find another way to make themselves look like the dumb and dumber of the NFL again this offseason.

 

One thing's all but certain, this team ain't goin' anywhere with Manuel at the helm as you seem to imply.

 

As the guys in that article point out, FSU also had to dumb down their offense in order for him to be effective. That alone bodes poorly for him as an NFL QB. Same thing has now happened in the NFL. It is becoming unmistakeably more clear that he is mentally incapable of working out more than one or two aspects of his game simultaneously. It's very Bledsoe-like in that sole regard.

 

The smart thing would be for the team to draft a QB in round one with their given pick this Draft, but I doubt that will happen. Doing so necessarily entails that Marrone didn't know what he was talking about, and I don't see anyone in a position of decision-making authority admitting a mistake in favor of real progress. That's too professional and competent to happen here.

 

Okay, so you've determined after 2 preseason games and 10 regular season games that EJ Manuel does not have the potential to be the Bills "franchise" QB moving forward?

 

Here's the problem with that line of thinking, Manuel didn't start playing football this season. He's played it for years and played significantly in four seasons at FSU and started two seasons there. There are a bunch of pre-existing data points.

 

Manuel's issues in the NFL are the same as the ones he had at FSU where, just as happened here this season, the offense was dumbed down so that he could understand it and/or play better. That's never a good sign and I can't think of a single QB that started like that that became a top notch QB in the NFL.

 

So it really isn't 2 preseason and 10 regular season games, it's a whole bunch of stuff that this team, Marrone in particular, overlooked prior to drafting him and stuff that made him what he should have been, namely a 2nd at best or even 3rd round prospect last year.

 

Blame this FO for forcing a QB pick in a QB bereft Draft once again.

 

Manuel is a project at best at this point. Marrone & Co. can't outlast a project like that before getting canned at the end of the 2015 season.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Manuel's issues in the NFL are the same as the ones he had at FSU where, just as happened here this season, the offense was dumbed down so that he could understand it and/or play better.

Evidence for that? I just read an NFL beat reporter that referred to Hackett's offense as very complex. BTW, check the number of plays some of the successful teams run. Execution > Complexity.

 

Manuel's problems have been with timing and footwork, not with his understanding of the offense.

 

Manuel is very smart. Few NFL rookies come in ready to plug and play and the Bills' strategy cannot have been for Manuel to take the job by default. Kolb was not a strong choice to pencil in at starter, but he was the choice.

[Beerball]

 

 

You're right I will try again.

 

Okay, so you've determined after 2 preseason games and 10 regular season games that EJ Manuel does not have the potential to be the Bills "franchise" QB moving forward?

 

Since you mentioned that a veteran "re-tread" would not suffice in bolstering the QB position, would you like to see the Bills draft a QB every year until they find a player who demonstrates (during their rookie season) that they are immediately ready to be a NFL "franchise" QB?

 

Looks like I did a nice job paraphrasing your earlier post. Is this accurate in describing your sentiment with regard to the Bills' QB position?

So Johnny, if your team needed a LT and they drafted one in the first round how much time would you give him? He missed 6 games due to injury and parts of others. He looked OK in some games, but he needed help, usually a TE or RB to chip his guy. He also had trouble picking up the line calls and the QB has taken too many unnecessary hits because of him.

 

How long are you going to wait until you look for someone better?

[Boatdrinks]

So Johnny, if your team needed a LT and they drafted one in the first round how much time would you give him? He missed 6 games due to injury and parts of others. He looked OK in some games, but he needed help, usually a TE or RB to chip his guy. He also had trouble picking up the line calls and the QB has taken too many unnecessary hits because of him.

 

How long are you going to wait until you look for someone better?

 

Can't compare QB to LT and pro personnel guys know this. An NFL QB is the rarest of guys, so teams will take a chance if they feel a guy has the two important things. You must have a certain physical skill set, and a fine Swiss piece in your head, not a dollar store watch. So if a guy has the physical tools and Swiss piece, but lacks mechanics they always feel they can "fix" those. An LT needs a big wingspan, great feet, and immense size. You need to be pretty smart too ( NFL teams do stress the Wonderlic for OL's as well as QB's) but not in the way a QB does. QB's these days (especially with the new salary structure for rookies) are drafted on "potential" more than ever. The money isn't so huge that you can't easily part ways with a guy after the required 2-3 seasons too see if he can do the job. The CBA wasn't changed so teams could draft QB's back to back and stockpile them (you still only play one QB in the field at any one time) but so they aren't killed by the salary cap when they are released as so many QB's fail.

[Beerball]

 

 

Can't compare QB to LT and pro personnel guys know this. An NFL QB is the rarest of guys, so teams will take a chance if they feel a guy has the two important things. You must have a certain physical skill set, and a fine Swiss piece in your head, not a dollar store watch. So if a guy has the physical tools and Swiss piece, but lacks mechanics they always feel they can "fix" those. An LT needs a big wingspan, great feet, and immense size. You need to be pretty smart too ( NFL teams do stress the Wonderlic for OL's as well as QB's) but not in the way a QB does. QB's these days (especially with the new salary structure for rookies) are drafted on "potential" more than ever. The money isn't so huge that you can't easily part ways with a guy after the required 2-3 seasons too see if he can do the job. The CBA wasn't changed so teams could draft QB's back to back and stockpile them (you still only play one QB in the field at any one time) but so they aren't killed by the salary cap when they are released as so many QB's fail.

You are very wrong IMO. The new salary structure makes this much more likely. No longer does a team have $40M wrapped up in a rookie QB. There is absolutely no reason to bypass "your guy" if he's there. You don't reach, but you better not pass him up either because you'll likely be very sorry. It doesn't have to be round 1 or 2, but when you see your guy and he's slotted properly on your board you better grab him.

 

The alternative is to wait. You may be willing to go 3-4 years to make up your mind on Manuel, I am not. My ??? about his ability are too great.

[Malazan]

I am excited for a whole offseason of these threads on a daily basis

[BackInDaDay]

I don't follow the college game closely anymore.. what types of QBs make up the current class of eligibles? because if running the option is a relevant piece of their success, I'd think long and hard about drafting them unless there are other aspects to their game that make them desirable. it didn't take long for NFL coaches to figure out how to eliminate the wildcat and option as viable offenses - rendering kids like Kapernick and RG3 ineffective this year..

 

I figure the Bills saw enough of a solid foundation in Manuel to make him their projected franchise QB. he's a work in progress. bringing in another work in progress makes no sense.. it's like having two kids in diapers - twice as much crap to clean up.

 

I'm watching 2nd year man Tannehill setting up in a solid pocket and throwing two very poor passes on consecutive plays... and all I can think is - thank god that wasn't EJ..

[John from Riverside]

You don't wait 3-4 years.....who wants that?

 

You see what you have in him next year and concentrate on putting pieces around him to help him succeed (like a quality left guard and open when your covered TE)

 

THEN if he makes no progression next year you take another shot at a 1st round QB

 

ROOKIE SEASON is too early

[Chicago Bills Fan]

I think the fan's confidence level would be higher if he showed some confidence in himself. At the beginning of the season I liked that he seemed composed and didn't easily get rattled. Now I wish I could see some passion in him and he would express some kind of emotion on and off the field. I wonder how much of the problem is due to attitude instead of just pure technical skills.

[John from Riverside]

Attitude and self confidence are supposed to be his strong intangibles.....wtf are u talking about

[San-O]

Slow release? That's absurd.

 

His decision making will only improve with experience. His first year was gonna be a challenge from that standpoint even if things went well. Him missing six weeks of action over the course of the season and preseason did more to curtail that aspect of his game than anything.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

What does he do well? Anything?

[KRT88]

Can't wait onj EJ. If the Bills feel there is a franchise QB available when they pick, the Bills should draft him.

 

that is idiotic! they felt last year they had found a guy they could develop. If you pick another guy you just wasted last years pick.

[Ronin]

Evidence for that? I just read an NFL beat reporter that referred to Hackett's offense as very complex. BTW, check the number of plays some of the successful teams run. Execution > Complexity.

 

Manuel's problems have been with timing and footwork, not with his understanding of the offense.

 

Manuel is very smart. Few NFL rookies come in ready to plug and play and the Bills' strategy cannot have been for Manuel to take the job by default. Kolb was not a strong choice to pencil in at starter, but he was the choice.

 

That's what I love about this board, it's only atune to the highest profile stuff.

 

http://blogs.buffalonews.com/press-coverage/2013/12/doug-marrone-says-bills-should-simplify-offense-for-ej-manuel.html

 

It's been an issue for weeks.

 

Either way, and argue as you may, he's not succeeding in whatever system they've implemented.

 

... I also love the fans that talk about the playbook as if they have a copy sitting on their family room table. LOL

[Chicago Bills Fan]

Attitude and self confidence are supposed to be his strong intangibles.....wtf are u talking about

 

I'm just saying that I wish I could see more passion in him....that's all. No reason to get so worked up.

[papazoid]

2013 Passer rating:

 

#40- Ryan Fitzpatrick

#50 - Thad Lewis

#51 - EJ Manuel

 

 

EJ MANUEL will be lucky to crack the Top 20. he will NEVER be a Franchise QB.

[John from Riverside]

My crystal ball is on backorder........I am glad their are so many that were able to get theirs before christmas

[Johnny Hammersticks]

So Johnny, if your team needed a LT and they drafted one in the first round how much time would you give him? He missed 6 games due to injury and parts of others. He looked OK in some games, but he needed help, usually a TE or RB to chip his guy. He also had trouble picking up the line calls and the QB has taken too many unnecessary hits because of him.

 

How long are you going to wait until you look for someone better?

 

That depends on several factors BB. Given the scenario you presented I would lean toward giving that LT at least one more season before expending a high draft pick on another LT. That said, I believe that a QB's development in much more complex than that of a LT, and certainly much more reliant on consistency and repetitions. A rookie QB who has shown potential like EJ, IMO, should be given the advantage of a full offseason of teaching and practice, and the a season of consistent NFL playing time before they are written off.

 

Now, if EJ does not improve markedly during his sophomore season, than I will be seated next to a lot of folks on the "draft another QB early" bandwagon.