Exhaustive film study: EJ's strengths and weaknesses

[zonabb]

So a kid with a blog and subscription to All-22 is an expert? Got it. Why isn't he in a scouting dept again? Got that too.

 

No one should judge a kid on 10 or so games. He didn't put up stupid numbers but still had more TDs than INTs and the last time I checked, you didn't get your first job out of college and after your first 30 hours on the job, get ripped apart for not being a senior level manager. Take a breather, let the kid get a full offseason under the team... he had 4 months from the draft until he start week 1 and much of that was time he couldn't be with coaches or was injured in camp.

 

If someone said he'd 10 games, put up the numbers he did, showed some flashes and played like a rookie typically does, I'd have taken it. If you think all QBs come in and wow you the first season, you're fooling yourself. Andrew Luck, which most everyone here would have given up an entire draft to have and was a supposed one in a lifetime prospect had a decent rookie year with a way better team. Luck was 339-627 for 4,374, 23 TDs, 18 INTs, 9 fumbles and a 76.5 rating.

 

If you simply extrapolate EJs 10 games (counting Clevealnd as a complete game which could be argued short changes him) worth of stats into 16 games you get: 288 completion on 480 attempts for 3,155 yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs, 10 fumbles (rounded) and the rating of 77.7.

 

Luck threw the ball a lot more, hence the larger numbers. But being a player everyone knew was somewhat of raw project compared to a player everyone called an All-Pro on draft day, it's not like EJ was a disaster this year. He basically had Ryan Tannehill's rookie year and if he progresses in year two like Tannehill did, which is playing for playoff spot at home in week 17, we'd all be happy. It'd be great if he did and the team was patient enough to groom him and let him grow.

 

Everything in the all-22 and these no-name analysts analysis appears to be correctable and given we knew he was raw, the big issue is can he learn and progress.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Very hard to play the what-if game with Rodgers because it is just as possible that had he started from day one, he would have out played favre in short order. They are very different QBs with very different styles and there is no secret that B. Favre wanted no part of helping to groom his replacement. The "sitting on the bench and learning argument" is a red herring in my opinion because there will never be any way to document whether it is better or worse. It didn't matter for Marino, Elway or Kelly.

It's not so much that, it's the bench + getting great instruction along the way, and having time to focus almost solely on that. We know for a fact that EJ isn't working with the coach six days a week on his personal improvement schedule, because he has had to both rehab from injuries and prepare for each week's game plan.

 

I can't say that EJ is a can't miss, but if he is willing to put in the time and max effort needed to improve, and the Bills make sure they have the best possible instructional environment set up for him from the moment the clock hits zero at Foxboro tomorrow, I think he has a good chance of being the QB we want him to be.

 

You do want him to be that, don't you?

 

Also, please don't bring up Jim Kelly without acknowledging his three years in the USFL. He did not arrive to the NFL a finished product and still made plenty of mistakes along the way, notwithstanding that seasoning.

[Just in Atlanta]

I'll beat this drum all winter long: Draft a QB -- high -- and give us two options. Seriously -- so what that we drafted a qb in the first round this year, and people say we can't draft another next year. Who makes these rules? Manuel does not look like he's going to pan out. It's going to take a lot of improvement. If he doesn't, which is likely, at least we have two options.

Edited December 28, 2013 by Just in Atlanta

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Christ, are we really whining about not having a terrible Nassib on our roster...

 

No, it's about not reaching for a QB in the first round and get a comparable one later. I thought all the QBs were average to poor last year.

[Rockinon]

That was really a very comphrehesive analysis. Great post.

 

So:

 

o Pocket play: footwork and other issues. We knew this

o Accuracy: inacurrate. horizontal vs. vertical placement. See college scouting reports.

o Reads: lot's of problems, including scanning the field and progressions. Major issue. No progress. Marrone as much admitted.

 

 

- I am going to throw in ball security as well, and INTs sacks and fumbles.

 

- If E.J. isn't "injury prone", that's fine, but he does have consistent "health issues".

 

- Slow start. again, from college scouting reports. What is this about?

 

 

What does he do well? The Bills took him very high and I want to know what they saw exactly? If he was this much of a project, why

take that high, except they had few choices?

 

Foot work is an issue everyone goes to, however again shows no improvement of note. Why?

 

I hope he impoves.

The bolded is my biggest concern. Every time EJ came back from injury, he would stink it up. Even when he didn't his play in the first qtr of games was absolutely terrible. He seems to need a lot of time to warm up and get moving.

[John from Riverside]

I dont suppose anybody remembers that Rogers looked extremely average in preseason and the little time he got while sitting behind Farve at the beginning? The revisionist history I swear to christ......

 

Look....I really dont think the play was to even start EJ this year and wanted to bring him along slowly.....but it is what it is....he got lots of playing time for a guy that was probably meant to sit behind Kolb and will be that much better for it....

 

He had games where he played pretty well and games where he did not.....like your standard 1st year rookie.

 

I personally think EJ looks much better out the gate next year and will look even better if we can get more weapons on the field.....I would really push for more two tight end set (with another quality TE)......and a qb coach in the offseason to work on his footwork issues....I still believe that most of what is left to improve upon is coachable

[All I Need is Hope]

I think that if we had a Roethlisberger/M. Ryan/Flacco/Rivers type QB talent with our current roster, then we would be in the playoffs. EJ might get there... I really hope that he does.

 

My point is that, without good QB play, we'll never advance beyond 6-10, 7-9, 8-8; no matter how many other positions we seem continually "address". It's not a wasted draft pick if we take another QB, if he's the one.

 

I know that the Bills leadership will have to make a decision prior to the draft, and I hope that they have a legitimate contingency plan (not a journeyman/late round draft pick/etc.), if there is doubt about EJ's ceiling and his ability to reach it.

[3rdand12]

I'd have to say Chan Gailey over extended himself by being the HC & OC. If it take 80 hours a week to be the HC to make certain everything with the team is running perfectly. Then how many hours are left over to opponents watch film, and set the game plan? Obviously Gailey never really changed up his schemes to suit the next team, or even took the time to work on Fitz's mechanics.

 

So, where does that leave Nathaniel Hackett in being both the OC & QB coach for all these young QB's? For a guy who has never even been an NFL OC or QB coach.

These are the adjustments I would expect from Marrone going into his second season. And not something you would be changing during the Season.

The bringing of N.Hackett down to the field was a move i applauded. I think we all felt that was needed

 

Oh , and I would not draft one this year unless one fell into our lap and or we traded back and added picks. But at the end of season two and the QB is still struggling ... go for it! first round

Edited December 28, 2013 by 3rdand12

[BoozeCruise]

We need to at least have credible option behind him, whether it's a Brian Hoyer or a mid-round draft pick. We went to the street for a quarterback this year. That's not how an NFL club is supposed to operate.

 

In terms of EJ's progression, it seems like he's aiming downfield passes and not showing a necessary amount of touch on those kinds of throws. We've got speed all over the place, one of the fastest offenses in the league; we need more big plays. We should be scaring defenses and not dinking and dunking with Scott Chandler and Stevie J. Some of that comes down to the less than creative playcalling of Nathaniel Hackett, some of that comes down to EJ's limitations.

 

Let's bring in a more creative offensive coordinator and a better stable of QB's outside of EJ. Let Hackett be a quarterbacks coach. He's not suited for the big show yet.

[OldTimer1960]

Can't wait onj EJ. If the Bills feel there is a franchise QB available when they pick, the Bills should draft him.

 

You will have to wait/be patient with any of the young QBs in this draft - really with almost ANY rookie QB. It is truly rare for a college QB to walk into the NFL and be a very good player immediately.

[OldTimer1960]

No, actually it isn't, because most teams make draft picks based on tangible, measurable results. I have asked before and i will ask again, what is EJ's defining game in college, the Florida game where he was knocked silly and lost huge? That is one defining moment. The Florida game he won in 2011 with 46% completions and 65 total passing yards?

 

In 2011, EJ put up two....count them, two 300 yard games....in college, at FSU.....against the ACC....oh wait, it was one game against the ACC (NC State) and the other against Charleston Southern. By comparison, Jameis Winston had 7 300+ yard games as a freshman.

 

That is only partially true. The NFL COMBINE is all about who has physical skills, but still have "upside". Upside can include: physical skills that can be developed with refined technique, further strength development, coaching on "the mental aspects", etc.

[goldenboy81]

EJ DA GREAT

[Garranimal]

That is only partially true. The NFL COMBINE is all about who has physical skills, but still have "upside". Upside can include: physical skills that can be developed with refined technique, further strength development, coaching on "the mental aspects", etc.

That is absolutely not true. The kids who are invited to the combine are the ones who have shown tangible evidence that they may have skills that translate at the NFL level. Furthermore, every single test given at the combine is intended to give another set of real data points that supposedly correlate to being able to play football in the NFL. If people are claiming that EJ had more upside because of some of these types of numbers....please tell me what those numbers are? I, on the other hand, am arguing that his performance at FSU would not lead anyone to believe he was going to suddenly become a franchise QB at the NFL level.

 

Ultimately, what i am hoping is that the Bills FO hedges their long shot gamble with another QB who grades out more ready for the game played in the NFL today. The Eagles did everything they possibly could to make Mike Vick a success, but they still drafted Nick Foles as insurance.

 

Before EJ Manuel ever became a Buffalo Bill i doubted his ability to play QB in the NFL, the fact that my team drafted him doesn't mean i shut off my intellect and blindly believe he will succeed. So as a fan of the Bills, i hope they draft a player who will become our next franchise QB.....meanwhile, i have seen nothing from EJ that would even begin to change my mind......if that happens....i will admit i was wrong.

[FireChan]

That is absolutely not true. The kids who are invited to the combine are the ones who have shown tangible evidence that they may have skills that translate at the NFL level. Furthermore, every single test given at the combine is intended to give another set of real data points that supposedly correlate to being able to play football in the NFL. If people are claiming that EJ had more upside because of some of these types of numbers....please tell me what those numbers are? I, on the other hand, am arguing that his performance at FSU would not lead anyone to believe he was going to suddenly become a franchise QB at the NFL level.

 

Ultimately, what i am hoping is that the Bills FO hedges their long shot gamble with another QB who grades out more ready for the game played in the NFL today. The Eagles did everything they possibly could to make Mike Vick a success, but they still drafted Nick Foles as insurance.

 

Before EJ Manuel ever became a Buffalo Bill i doubted his ability to play QB in the NFL, the fact that my team drafted him doesn't mean i shut off my intellect and blindly believe he will succeed. So as a fan of the Bills, i hope they draft a player who will become our next franchise QB.....meanwhile, i have seen nothing from EJ that would even begin to change my mind......if that happens....i will admit i was wrong.

 

But but but when he walks into a room you notice him!!

[RuntheDamnBall]

That is absolutely not true. The kids who are invited to the combine are the ones who have shown tangible evidence that they may have skills that translate at the NFL level. Furthermore, every single test given at the combine is intended to give another set of real data points that supposedly correlate to being able to play football in the NFL. If people are claiming that EJ had more upside because of some of these types of numbers....please tell me what those numbers are? I, on the other hand, am arguing that his performance at FSU would not lead anyone to believe he was going to suddenly become a franchise QB at the NFL level.

Have you noticed that absolutely no one is arguing that he was suddenly going to become a franchise QB at the NFL level, or is it too fun taking down a straw man?

[OldTimer1960]

That is absolutely not true. The kids who are invited to the combine are the ones who have shown tangible evidence that they may have skills that translate at the NFL level. Furthermore, every single test given at the combine is intended to give another set of real data points that supposedly correlate to being able to play football in the NFL. If people are claiming that EJ had more upside because of some of these types of numbers....please tell me what those numbers are? I, on the other hand, am arguing that his performance at FSU would not lead anyone to believe he was going to suddenly become a franchise QB at the NFL level.

 

Ultimately, what i am hoping is that the Bills FO hedges their long shot gamble with another QB who grades out more ready for the game played in the NFL today. The Eagles did everything they possibly could to make Mike Vick a success, but they still drafted Nick Foles as insurance.

 

Before EJ Manuel ever became a Buffalo Bill i doubted his ability to play QB in the NFL, the fact that my team drafted him doesn't mean i shut off my intellect and blindly believe he will succeed. So as a fan of the Bills, i hope they draft a player who will become our next franchise QB.....meanwhile, i have seen nothing from EJ that would even begin to change my mind......if that happens....i will admit i was wrong.

 

Agreed to some extent. They invite players to the combine who have shown some productivity at the collegiate level, but that productivity comes against varied levels of competition with varied levels of talent to work with on their own team, under different schemes, etc. However, every year there are "combine stars" that get drafted higher than their college productivity suggests that they should - that is "upside"

[Dibs]

These blokes in here that think EJ is rubbish really draw me ire.

All think they can be cheeky of EJ, gives me the collywobbles. You can all bugger off.

Just because EJ fell arse over tit and hurt his knee. EJ still has the most impressive John Thomas on the whole bloody squad even without a stonker.

I think ur all off ur trolleys. Bunch of tosh! Ej will reveal his twig and berries next season and everything will be tickety boo!

You can bet ur sweet Fanny Adams.

 

:lol:

Very well done.....though a little too British(I'm an Aussie).

 

You got the Collywobbles out of context though......it is used to describe someone or a team that chokes at the final hurdle. Romo throwing a game losing INT could be describes as "He got the Collywobbles."

 

 

Hehe.....I'm wondering how many people were completely baffled at what you wrote.

Thanks for the laugh.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

If you don't know if you have a QB then you don't have a QB. I'm not saying that EJ can't be good, I just would rather not find out after its too late. Have a contingentcy plan, not some retread washed up vet either.

 

Okay, sooooo we should draft a QB every year until we find one that plays at a pro bowl level during their rookie season?

[BarleyNY]

 

 

Okay, sooooo we should draft a QB every year until we find one that plays at a pro bowl level during their rookie season?

 

Framing the opposing viewpoint in exaggerated terms is poor form, I think you want to see more from a first year QB than we did from Manuel before you stand pat and that is all some of us are saying. I hope Manuel develops and becomes a franchise QB, but I'm not betting next season on it. I haven't seen enough from him. Another QB with potential needs to be added in some fashion.

Edited December 29, 2013 by BarleyNY

[DOGNESS]

I love all these people who say draft the franchise QB in next years draft like its some guarantee that the QB who will be available at our spot in the first round will be a guaranteed hall of famer.