What is your EJ Manuel Confidence Level?

[Boatdrinks]

I agree 100%, and thank you for saying this. They can also get very passive aggressive imo.

 

I LIKE differences of opinion and more often than not, personal attacks don't even bother me. The thing is, the "always positive folks" as you characterized them have little to defend. I would like to give an example if I may:

 

The 4 starters in the Bills secondary consist of 2 early first round picks and 2 very early second round picks. That is a TON of resources, no? The defensive front might actually set a record for sacks to make the game MUCH easier for them. That said, where are the wins? Some will defend this (and of course 1st round running backs) but there is no basis to do so because this team loses football games.

So when posters express the desire for another qb, I don't blame them. Manuel needs to earn his job. I am not going to jump on his bandwagon just because he LOOKS the way one would want a QB to look, and I don't get excited when he poses after one of his rare TD passes.

I want the Buffalo Bills to win football games.

 

PS: For what very little it's worth, I expect Lewis to play well tomorrow.

Differences of opinion abound. The "always negatives" tend to define unresolved situations as absolutes. EJM is officially unresolved at this point. It will play out. I would "expect" any player who is starting to play well. I don't believe T Lewis or Tuel is capable of performing beyond a certain level, however. Their undrafted status would tend to bear that out. Though the Bills have some high picks in the secondary, that does not automatically make them good players. Neither Bills starting CB would be considered elite or even very good compared to their peers around the league. Even with their top pass rush, the Bills secondary STILL gives up many long pass plays and 3rd down conversions. If you take into account the old adage about a good pass rush making a secondary look good, these 2 corners may be even worse. Certainly not as good as their draft status. You usually can tell if a drafted player was a hit or miss after 3 seasons. Mc Kelvin is way past that and Gilmore is heading to year 3 firmly in a sophomore slump. We all want the Bills to win games. That doesn't change how things are done in the NFL. Teams don't draft high picks at QB 2 years in a row, for various reasons. It would surprise most NFL observers if the Bills do this, so I'm not expecting it nor am I endorsing it. EJM will be given at least 2014. Bring in a proven vet to start or backup, or a mid round pick. Draft a starting caliber player at one of many positions of need. That is what we can expect in 2014, and I hope EJM can be a good NFL starter. I haven't seen enough to be certain either way.

[Leelee Phoenix]

Manuel will be a "top 10 legit playoff contender" QB at some point: 5%. Under the current staff that babies him: 1%.

 

Manuel will be a long-term (3+ years) starter in the league: 20%.

 

Manuel will be a marginal backup within 3 years, but hangs around the league because he's a good guy that looks the part and coaches will stubbornly think they're the one that can fix him: 60%

 

Manuel will be a Losman type that barely hangs on in the league after Buffalo gives up on him: 20%

Edited December 23, 2013 by Leelee Phoenix

[Luxy312]

On a scale of 1 to 10, I would give EJ about a 6 in terms of confidence. The positives and negatives of his play seem pretty obvious to me. On the one hand, he's shown some pocket elusiveness and escaped the possibility of even more sacks than what he has taken. This has given him time to either run or dump the ball off. Regardless of that positive, he's been sacked quite a bit. He's sacked 8.4% of every passing play. That's around 40% more than what I would consider the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. Clearly that has to come down for him to be successful. It seems like he's taking his shots down field, which I also think is a positive. At the beginning of the season, he looked far too much like captain checkdown (Trent Edwards). None the less there, he hasn't been accurate down field. So it's a plus/minus at the same time. He's taking shots, but has to wait for plays to develop, which means a higher risk of getting sacked even more and when he throws long, he's been off target. The one thing not in question at all is his demeanor. He appears poised and doesn't get rattled from taking a shot. I think if this team wants to build his confidence, that it has to start with improvements to the offensive line.

[Chandler#81]

 

Personally, I tend to like hearing her opinion. And you are bashing her for offering her honest opinion. I don't think that is very classy. I happen to think her opinion is pretty respectable.

 

I told one of the moderators here that I would bite my tongue the next time I was about to say something sarcastic that might piss someone off here. So I am biting my tongue here right now. I suggest you learn to do the same thing.

 

I'm not sure Leelee is a 'her'.. In any event, while THAT poster is often acerbic -with ample sarcasm, I'm going with believing it to be a genuine opinion and one I share.

[OldTimer1960]

 

 

It would be prudent to keep shopping. Even if EJ does turn out to be a success, which is far from an automatic at this point, the team as a whole doesn't lose anything to increase competition at the QB position.

 

Loses nothing? By drafting another QB high, they lose the chance to draft a solid prospect at another position that could help the team and whatever QBs they already have. Another #1 spent on a QB would leave the Bills w 2 QBs that don't have enough quality WRs and TEs to throw to - nor enough quality OL protection for them to do well.

 

There would also be the issue of getting each enough practice repetitions for either to develop. Everything that I've ever read says that reps are scarce for backup QBs - splitting starter reps would hinder both of the young QBs.

 

To be clear, if the Bills feel that there is a Peyton Manning can't miss QB sitting there when they pick, I think that they should absolutely draft him. However, if there is one equal to or marginally better than Manuel in their opinion, then I think they should draft another position for the reasons stated above.

[Gerry]

Not very high. Ironically, despite the difference in pass attempts, EJ's rating (77.7) is nearly the same as Thad's (77.8). I don't think that EJ could have done better yesterday; in fact, I thought it was a break for the Bills that Thad played in the messy weather. Thad is quicker and more mobile, EJ bigger and stronger; both have strong arms but also accuracy issues. Thad has proven himself to be a solid backup, but EJ has yet to prove himself as a legitimate starter. If you look at their ratings and W/L record, these guys are about equal, which is very discouraging considering one is a 1st round draft choice and one an UFA. Personally, I like the way Thad runs the offense; it seems to be more lively when he is in there. We will know more about EJ at mid-season next year, but clearly he needs to step it up. A good place to start would be this week at NE.

[BADOLBILZ]

Loses nothing? By drafting another QB high, they lose the chance to draft a solid prospect at another position that could help the team and whatever QBs they already have. Another #1 spent on a QB would leave the Bills w 2 QBs that don't have enough quality WRs and TEs to throw to - nor enough quality OL protection for them to do well.

 

There would also be the issue of getting each enough practice repetitions for either to develop. Everything that I've ever read says that reps are scarce for backup QBs - splitting starter reps would hinder both of the young QBs.

 

To be clear, if the Bills feel that there is a Peyton Manning can't miss QB sitting there when they pick, I think that they should absolutely draft him. However, if there is one equal to or marginally better than Manuel in their opinion, then I think they should draft another position for the reasons stated above.

 

For 14 years of first draft picks since the Bills last made the playoffs........all they had to show for it on Sunday were:

 

Leodis

CJ

Dareus

Gilmore

 

Basically.......3 guys who are solid contributors but definitely haven't lived up to their draft position...........and Dareus.......who is good but has had his problems.

 

Yet, the roster isn't really the problem with this team.

 

The value of a QB dwarfs that of any other position player so the risk/reward for taking a QB when you don't have a proven one always justifies passing on other positions.

 

As for the balance of your team..........anybody can draft good players in the first round.

 

Your personnel department has to be able to get good players throughout the draft, in undrafted free agency and pro free agency.

 

I'd rather the onus was on Whaley to repeat the successes of Glenn, Alonso, Byrd and Levitre than just HOPE that EJ Manuel is the man after a very disappointing and injury riddled rookie year.

[FireChan]

Everything seems to go better when Thad starts. Offense moves nicer, defense plays better. Except special teams. Thad has a negative effect on our ST play.

[MDH]

There is no perfect solution, but as Just in Atlanta said....I think competition is still the best approach.

 

A lot has been discussed on the subject.

 

But, let's not forget that even anointing a young QB after one good year is no guarantee that you have your franchise QB.

 

See the Josh Freeman saga.

 

They left him unchallenged after a tough rookie season, he got much better the next year, then plateaued, then proceeded to get worse.

 

They ended up wasting a lot of seasons.

 

Would competition from premium talent have made Freeman a better player? It couldn't have hurt. Or maybe he gets beaten out along the way.

 

The problem is that, unless you get a premium player like a Luck or a Peyton, the guy you drafted first will very likely beat out the fresh out of the draft rookie. He knows the offense, he knows the WRs - he has every advantage. Then you have a guy you just drafted sitting and not getting reps. Sure you can develop him that way but it's generally going to take years to do and isn't the entire point of this not to wait that long?

 

In the meantime you have other positional needs that didn't get addressed because you drafted a QB to sit on the bench when you just drafted one the year before. If they're serious about brining in competition they're better off bringing in a vet to compete (hopefully someone with more durability than Kolb.)

[Kevin]

To infinity and beyond!

[Turbosrrgood]

I'm a 35-40% guy at this point. Injuries, inconsisitency, and my general skepticism that the Bills will ever be good again keeps me on the low side until there is proof otherwise.

Edited December 24, 2013 by Beerball

[PearlHowardman]

EJ will be another Losman, Edwards, Fitz, et al. Worse, the current Bills coaching staff are likely to go down as the worst coaching staff in team history.

 

...whatever!

 

[thebandit27]

EJ will be another Losman, Edwards, Fitz, et al. Worse, the current Bills coaching staff are likely to go down as the worst coaching staff in team history.

 

...whatever!

 

 

Just out of curiosity, how much fun can it be to come to a team's message board of which you aren't a fan and be unrelentingly negative?

 

Just seems a lousy way to spend your time.

 

[1B4IDie]

EJ will be another Losman, Edwards, Fitz, et al. Worse, the current Bills coaching staff are likely to go down as the worst coaching staff in team history.

 

...whatever!

 

Wow.

[Kemp2Warlick]

The game against Atlanta gave me more optimism than I had previously...Not his fault on the SJ and Chandler drops.

[l< j]

I posted this in the All-22 thread, but it might be better here:

 

Buffalo Rumblings has put up 4 galleries of All-22 stuff, all on different aspects of EJ's play over the season.

 

Pocket ability: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2013/12/23/5238230/ej-manuel-film-study-pocket-ability

Accuracy: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2013/12/23/5238578/ej-manuel-film-study-accuracy

Reads: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2013/12/23/5238714/ej-manuel-film-study-reads'>http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2013/12/23/5238714/ej-manuel-film-study-reads

Throws of note: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2013/12/23/5238714/ej-manuel-film-study-reads

 

Haven't gotten far yet, but it looks good.

 

kj

[Leelee Phoenix]

He chose a lot of negative plays... but, my concern stands. I like EJ's reading ability, as limited as it may be at this point, and judging by how he speaks, he puts a ton of effort into this. He seems to feel pressure well, although he handles it poorly and gets unnecessarily skittish at times. I think those skills will improve.

 

But, EJ's accuracy is not adequate for the NFL, at all distances. I don't see how his accuracy will improve. He's been a heralded QB for a decade and thrown a million balls. He's not suddenly going to learn how to throw a football better.

[BADOLBILZ]

The problem is that, unless you get a premium player like a Luck or a Peyton, the guy you drafted first will very likely beat out the fresh out of the draft rookie. He knows the offense, he knows the WRs - he has every advantage. Then you have a guy you just drafted sitting and not getting reps. Sure you can develop him that way but it's generally going to take years to do and isn't the entire point of this not to wait that long?

 

In the meantime you have other positional needs that didn't get addressed because you drafted a QB to sit on the bench when you just drafted one the year before. If they're serious about brining in competition they're better off bringing in a vet to compete (hopefully someone with more durability than Kolb.)

 

Competition brings out the best in competitive people........and make no mistake that is an enormous part of the equation.

 

I don't want a top QB prospect competing against what he thinks people expect him to be...........I want him competing against another talented and competitive young QB. I want the focus to be on winning that competition, not how he is being perceived.

 

In the process of winning a competition, that QB then wins the respect of his teammates.

 

As for a veteran......if you bring in a McCown brother they may very well come in and outperform EJ. That is absolutely no good. They don't need another bandaid like Holcomb or Fitz. If that veteran outplays EJ you risk fractioning the team by starting your potential franchise QB instead.

 

Best scenario is top young QB versus top young QB with Thad or Tuel holding the clipboard. I don't mind EJ having the experience advantage. If the other QB comes in and beats EJ out that only further legitimizes him. If EJ wins a close competition then he will feel the heat from behind him. If that doesn't make him better, I don't want him.

 

And as for that position they don't address in the first round........like I said, this team is not being carried by first round picks.

 

The Bills roster could always use bolstering but rosters don't get you to the playoffs year in and year out........QB's do.

 

Look at the teams in playoff position in the AFC and you have 4 middling rosters headlined by Manning, Brady, Luck and Flacco. Those guys have taken their teams to the playoffs something like 35 times in 38 combined seasons.

 

The other two teams are "rosters" with solid game manager QB's. They have a higher quality 21 than the others but their playoff shelf life is basically a matter of parity. Nobody is seriously considering them as SB teams. Not with those QB's in front of them. And the bad news for them is that once the cap spreads their talent to other teams they will be watching the playoffs.

 

So never worry too much about wasting a high pick on a QB. QB's control the game. Their value dwarfs that of every other position.

[kickedface]

i'm at 65% only because he is a rookie and typically rookie qbs don't do too well. yeah he's gotten dinged and that is something to watch out for. but until the guy gets at least a season's worth of games under his belt i have a hard time writing him off.

[BackInDaDay]

Competition brings out the best in competitive people........and make no mistake that is an enormous part of the equation.

 

I don't want a top QB prospect competing against what he thinks people expect him to be...........I want him competing against another talented and competitive young QB. I want the focus to be on winning that competition, not how he is being perceived.

 

In the process of winning a competition, that QB then wins the respect of his teammates.

 

As for a veteran......if you bring in a McCown brother they may very well come in and outperform EJ. That is absolutely no good. They don't need another bandaid like Holcomb or Fitz. If that veteran outplays EJ you risk fractioning the team by starting your potential franchise QB instead.

 

Best scenario is top young QB versus top young QB with Thad or Tuel holding the clipboard. I don't mind EJ having the experience advantage. If the other QB comes in and beats EJ out that only further legitimizes him. If EJ wins a close competition then he will feel the heat from behind him. If that doesn't make him better, I don't want him.

 

And as for that position they don't address in the first round........like I said, this team is not being carried by first round picks.

 

The Bills roster could always use bolstering but rosters don't get you to the playoffs year in and year out........QB's do.

 

Look at the teams in playoff position in the AFC and you have 4 middling rosters headlined by Manning, Brady, Luck and Flacco. Those guys have taken their teams to the playoffs something like 35 times in 38 combined seasons.

 

The other two teams are "rosters" with solid game manager QB's. They have a higher quality 21 than the others but their playoff shelf life is basically a matter of parity. Nobody is seriously considering them as SB teams. Not with those QB's in front of them. And the bad news for them is that once the cap spreads their talent to other teams they will be watching the playoffs.

 

So never worry too much about wasting a high pick on a QB. QB's control the game. Their value dwarfs that of every other position.

 

 

Manuel is our starter in 2014.

 

i doubt the Bills will draft another young QB. if they did, then barring injuries to the guy who wins the pre-season competition for the starting job, the young back-up will get few opportunities to mature. he won't even qualify as a competent #2.

 

meanwhile, the young #1 will continue to make mistakes as he develops.

 

all our speculation on young QBs is moot if Hackett doesn't tighten up his schematics and their execution. the potential for QB development will parallel our OC's.