What is your EJ Manuel Confidence Level?

[ThrowingFitz]

Draft another QB. Enough said.

[thewildrabbit]

Some Bills fans need to realize this year wasn't completely about just the QB, and his development. It was also about the development of all the other rookies on the team too.

 

It was about the rookie head coach, the rookie GM. More importantly IMO, the rookie offensive coordinator who unlike his HC, has never played in the NFL. Hackett was the Bills & Bucs offensive quality control person for one year with each team previous to his being an OC at the college level. So this man had never called plays or set up the game plan for NFL games before this season. Hackett only called offensive plays at Syracuse for one year and was quality control coach for one year, then TE / QB coach for one year in his 3 years at Syracuse.

 

The other things that need consideration were the offensive play calling, the scheme, the game plans. The offense was the #1 team in rushing attempts and yet had great difficulty in controlling the clock or LoS by running. When the run game failed to make yards the OC just kept calling pass plays which put tremendous pressure on the rookie QB to produce. Sometimes he did, and sometimes he didn't. My point here is that the running game should have carried the team instead of forcing the rookie QB to carry it.

 

Then you need to consider that this years team had some difficulties with the O line. They fielded the very worst graded LG in the league for the first 5 games, and replaced him with the backup center who should have remained a backup player and not a full time starter. That O line played poorly at times, and particularly on the road against certain teams.

 

The WR corps had two rookies in Woods & Goodwin who were both hurt at times which hinders their development process. Then the star WR started out the year with a hamstring injury, then bad back, then groin pull. Then he had his mom pass away. Sadly, just a very difficult year for SJ, and even with all those problems SJ was still the Bills leading receiver by far. The one WR that was healthy all year has hands of stone. The Bills TE is ranked 15th in yards and only has had one TD all year, and he has made critical mistakes in some games. The next best TE on the team only had 5 receptions all year, and ranks 68th. The next best 74th.

 

So, when you think about evaluating the QB, also think about the supporting cast around the QB. After all, it is a team sport.

[SBUffalo]

Not that people who have seen me around here won't be expecting this, but my confidence level in him is about 2%.

[Bill from NYC]

I would like to plead to the people who have made up their minds already on EJ(and feel the need to convince others of the same). Please.....pretty please......please let others(the vast majority) discuss the myriad of topics relating to EJ and the QB position under the premise that he might still have a chance to become a top 10 QB.

 

I do not see the need for the above. What's the difference? People can make a case for Manuel being very good some day, or in fact not being much good at all. It's that close imo. At this point, I do not see a disadvantage playing Lewis in terms of this game only. I ain't seeing much difference.

 

In terms of the posters who applaud every move the Bills make and the "critics," those pointing out the futility of this organization have a pretty good case. Their opinions shouldn't be summarily shut down.

 

Jmo.

[bills_believer]

Since the 1998 draft (the Peyton Manning/ Ryan Leaf draft), 44 Quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. I would say 16 of them were or are successful at least to some degree. 25 I would say are disappointments. Three (EJ, Tannehill and RG3) I would say the jury is still out on. Any confidence level I have on EJ would begin with that success ratio of 39% for first round quarterbacks. Unless it is an Andrew Luck who everyone knew would be good the success ratio of first round quarterbacks is not that good.

 

My confidence level in EJ is further dropped by the injuries he had this year and by the fact that he has not done that well this year, I would like to see the Bills draft another quarterback in the first or second round and let him compete with EJ.

 

The first round quarterbacks that I considered successes (I think I was fairly generous): Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Mathew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Phil Rivers, Ben Rothlisberger, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Donovan McNabb, and Peyton Manning.

 

The first round quarterbacks I considered disappointments: Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker (it actually is still a little early), Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown and Ryan Leaf (the poster child for first round disappointments).

Edited December 21, 2013 by bills_believer

[Rockinon]

I do not see the need for the above. What's the difference? People can make a case for Manuel being very good some day, or in fact not being much good at all. It's that close imo. At this point, I do not see a disadvantage playing Lewis in terms of this game only. I ain't seeing much difference.

 

In terms of the posters who applaud every move the Bills make and the "critics," those pointing out the futility of this organization have a pretty good case. Their opinions shouldn't be summarily shut down.

 

Jmo.

I agree. I do think however we have been run over by the negative Nancies. People talk about the losing and that's fine, but the fans have lost that positive vibe too. Fans can be real boneheaded about it too. Seems every time someone has something positive to say, someone with a different opinion not only voices that opinion, but also wants to fart in their face about it. Edited December 21, 2013 by Rockinon

[Sisyphean Bills]

Since the 1998 draft (the Peyton Manning/ Ryan Leaf draft), 44 Quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. I would say 16 of them were or are successful at least to some degree. 25 I would say are disappointments. Three (EJ, Tannehill and RG3) I would say the jury is still out on. Any confidence level I have on EJ would begin with that success ratio of 39% for first round quarterbacks. Unless it is an Andrew Luck who everyone knew would be good the success ratio of first round quarterbacks is not that good.

 

My confidence level in EJ is further dropped by the injuries he had this year and by the fact that he has not done that well this year, I would like to see the Bills draft another quarterback in the first or second round and let him compete with EJ.

 

It would be prudent to keep shopping. Even if EJ does turn out to be a success, which is far from an automatic at this point, the team as a whole doesn't lose anything to increase competition at the QB position. Bringing in fringe NFL guys with multiple failures, cold product, on cheap contracts is a passive, even dreamy approach.

 

Still, this very much depends on how "in love" Marrone and Whaley are with their decisions last year. It is a question of whether they see themselves as bigger than a single decision and having the fortitude to impose their leadership over cheerleadership.

[Estro]

After watching the Bills very closely these last 14 seasons I'm of the strong belief that you should draft a QB high each and every year until you're sure you got your guy. Until you have a solid QB in place, not much else matters. Andrew Luck takes a 2-3 win team and makes them a 10 win team. Seattle take a 8-9 win team and makes them a 13 win team. A team with a so-so roster and a solid QB can be a consistent playoff squad. A team with an outstanding roster and a so-so QB would be lucky to squeak into the playoffs and never have a serious shot at contending for anything more. With the way the rookie payscale used to be setup teams couldn't afford to consistently draft QB's high, because their contracts were too rich. That is not the case anymore. EJ's contract is paying him top end backup QB money, so there's no excuse not to draft another QB high again in 2014. If EJ doesn't pan out we have another option, if EJ beats out the draft pick, he will have earned it....and the competition between the two can only help. The bottom line is if you're not sure you have your guy (and there's no way the Bills can feel 100% that EJ will be a star in this league, how could they?) you better continue looking, because without a star QB you have ABSOLUTELY NO SHOT.

[BADOLBILZ]

Since the 1998 draft (the Peyton Manning/ Ryan Leaf draft), 44 Quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. I would say 16 of them were or are successful at least to some degree. 25 I would say are disappointments. Three (EJ, Tannehill and RG3) I would say the jury is still out on. Any confidence level I have on EJ would begin with that success ratio of 39% for first round quarterbacks. Unless it is an Andrew Luck who everyone knew would be good the success ratio of first round quarterbacks is not that good.

 

My confidence level in EJ is further dropped by the injuries he had this year and by the fact that he has not done that well this year, I would like to see the Bills draft another quarterback in the first or second round and let him compete with EJ.

 

The first round quarterbacks that I considered successes (I think I was fairly generous): Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Mathew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Phil Rivers, Ben Rothlisberger, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Donovan McNabb, and Peyton Manning.

 

The first round quarterbacks I considered disappointments: Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker (it actually is still a little early), Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown and Ryan Leaf (the poster child for first round disappointments).

 

I have made the case that if the Bills had simply taken the next QB that was drafted after their first selection in the draft in each of the past 14 years those players would have been Brees, Rodgers, Flacco, Cutler and Kapernick........there would still have been failures like Josh Freeman and the Lee Evans pick would have probably become JP Losman anyway............but 5 out of 14 is 36%........which is very much in line with your #.

 

Obviously, there is no guarantee that you will hit on one top QB every third attempt........but still.........with something that important it makes sense to take those chances based on the numbers.

 

Keep working to find a QB.

 

After watching the Bills very closely these last 14 seasons I'm of the strong belief that you should draft a QB high each and every year until you're sure you got your guy. Until you have a solid QB in place, not much else matters. Andrew Luck takes a 2-3 win team and makes them a 10 win team. Seattle take a 8-9 win team and makes them a 13 win team. A team with a so-so roster and a solid QB can be a consistent playoff squad. A team with an outstanding roster and a so-so QB would be lucky to squeak into the playoffs and never have a serious shot at contending for anything more. With the way the rookie payscale used to be setup teams couldn't afford to consistently draft QB's high, because their contracts were too rich. That is not the case anymore. EJ's contract is paying him top end backup QB money, so there's no excuse not to draft another QB high again in 2014. If EJ doesn't pan out we have another option, if EJ beats out the draft pick, he will have earned it....and the competition between the two can only help. The bottom line is if you're not sure you have your guy (and there's no way the Bills can feel 100% that EJ will be a star in this league, how could they?) you better continue looking, because without a star QB you have ABSOLUTELY NO SHOT.

 

Dead on.

 

Just look at the teams in the playoff positions in the AFC.

 

What rosters are better than Buffalo's?

 

The only one, IMO, is KC's and we all know that the only significant player addition they made between being the worst team in the NFL and the 4th seed in the AFC is adding a serviceable NFL QB.

 

Edited December 21, 2013 by BADOLBEELZ

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

 

 

I have made the case that if the Bills had simply taken the next QB that was drafted after their first selection in the draft in each of the past 14 years those players would have been Brees, Rodgers, Flacco, Cutler and Kapernick........there would still have been failures like Josh Freeman and the Lee Evans pick would have probably become JP Losman anyway............but 5 out of 14 is 36%........which is very much in line with your #.

 

Obviously, there is no guarantee that you will hit on one top QB every third attempt........but still.........with something that important it makes sense to take those chances based on the numbers.

 

Keep working to find a QB.

 

 

 

Dead on.

 

Just look at the teams in the playoff positions in the AFC.

 

What rosters are better than Buffalo's?

 

The only one, IMO, is KC's and we all know that the only significant player addition they made between being the worst team in the NFL and the 4th seed in the AFC is adding a serviceable NFL QB.

 

The problem is: how do you develop any of your QBs if you keep drafting them? seems like unless a guy is an immediate success-- which is rare--then you have to write them off or give them less PT and a chance to develop.

 

Conceptually, I like the idea of drafting QBs every year. But practically speaking, you couldn't give these guys a chance to really succeed.

[Just in Atlanta]

It's not about immediate success. Few fans, even homers, were expecting a playoff run. And many fans expected him to be ugly at times.

 

What it is about is instinctive abilities. For all his upsides, natural things -- things I don't know can be learned -- such as pocket presence, speed of decision making and instinctive ability to know how to take a hit, are sorely lacking. It's instantly recognizable.

 

If we don't draft a QB high in April, and Manuel fails -- which I think is a 60 percent chance -- then we will have TWO wasted years, not just one, not to mention yet another year of rebuilding under a new quarterback when we do draft one in two years.

 

Draft a quarterback in April already and give this team two options instead of crossing our fingers and praying. It just seems so obvious. End this cycle already and draft, draft, draft until we get a good one.

 

The problem is: how do you develop any of your QBs if you keep drafting them? seems like unless a guy is an immediate success-- which is rare--then you have to write them off or give them less PT and a chance to develop.

 

Conceptually, I like the idea of drafting QBs every year. But practically speaking, you couldn't give these guys a chance to really succeed.

Just because you draft someone, it doesn't mean you don't give the other guy a chance. It's simple. Hold a competition. And let the best one win.

Edited December 21, 2013 by Just in Atlanta

[starrymessenger]

I'm 35% confident that EJ will develop into a bona fide quality starter at this level.

To me he is likely never going to make the tight throws in narrow windows that good NFL QBs make.

He has never done that and the probability therefore is that he never will.

If the problems affecting his accuracy, or lack thereof, were such as to be corrected they would have been coached out of him a long time ago.

If to the contrary his accuracy can go from bad to good, my 35% estimate goes immediately to 70%, with staying healthy the only significant concern.

EJ is a fantastic athlete. All the physical tools that anyone could want are there in spades.

But the so called QB specific "power cords" that permit access to those impressive physical attributes while playing the position, sensing pressure in the pocket almost intuitively, going through progressions, field vision and anticipation, throwing receivers open, naturally having good throwing mechanics and footwork so that passing is second nature, etc... and all of that happening with split second timing, are palpably absent IMO.

And I tend to doubt that those things can be learned.

A clearly superior athlete can be very successful playing future doctors and lawyers in college.

All of that changes in the pros. If you are going to be a good QB in the NFL you pretty much have to be born to play the position, you have to be a natural. Regrettably I don't see those qualities in EJ. Not at all.

Of course I'm not qualified to evaluate football talent so could be very wrong.

And I certainly hope I am.

 

[Beerball]

Some Bills fans need to realize this year wasn't completely about just the QB, and his development. It was also about the development of all the other rookies on the team too.

 

It was about the rookie head coach, the rookie GM. More importantly IMO, the rookie offensive coordinator who unlike his HC, has never played in the NFL. Hackett was the Bills & Bucs offensive quality control person for one year with each team previous to his being an OC at the college level. So this man had never called plays or set up the game plan for NFL games before this season. Hackett only called offensive plays at Syracuse for one year and was quality control coach for one year, then TE / QB coach for one year in his 3 years at Syracuse.

 

The other things that need consideration were the offensive play calling, the scheme, the game plans. The offense was the #1 team in rushing attempts and yet had great difficulty in controlling the clock or LoS by running. When the run game failed to make yards the OC just kept calling pass plays which put tremendous pressure on the rookie QB to produce. Sometimes he did, and sometimes he didn't. My point here is that the running game should have carried the team instead of forcing the rookie QB to carry it.

 

Then you need to consider that this years team had some difficulties with the O line. They fielded the very worst graded LG in the league for the first 5 games, and replaced him with the backup center who should have remained a backup player and not a full time starter. That O line played poorly at times, and particularly on the road against certain teams.

 

The WR corps had two rookies in Woods & Goodwin who were both hurt at times which hinders their development process. Then the star WR started out the year with a hamstring injury, then bad back, then groin pull. Then he had his mom pass away. Sadly, just a very difficult year for SJ, and even with all those problems SJ was still the Bills leading receiver by far. The one WR that was healthy all year has hands of stone. The Bills TE is ranked 15th in yards and only has had one TD all year, and he has made critical mistakes in some games. The next best TE on the team only had 5 receptions all year, and ranks 68th. The next best 74th.

 

So, when you think about evaluating the QB, also think about the supporting cast around the QB. After all, it is a team sport.

Feel free to start a thread rating all of those you mention. This thread is about your confidence level in Manuel.

 

I agree. I do think however we have been run over by the negative Nancies. People talk about the losing and that's fine, but the fans have lost that positive vibe too. Fans can be real boneheaded about it too. Seems every time someone has something positive to say, someone with a different opinion not only voices that opinion, but also wants to fart in their face about it.

And someone who posts something negative can be assured that the positive Patties will spray lavender Fabreeze in that person's face. Welcome to the internet. Matter of fact I'd say that the always positive folks are actually more rabid.

[Chilly]

10%. Game really needs to slow down for him in the off season. He looks good when comfortable, needs to get comfortable under pressure

[ColdBlueNorth]

After watching the Bills very closely these last 14 seasons I'm of the strong belief that you should draft a QB high each and every year until you're sure you got your guy. Until you have a solid QB in place, not much else matters. Andrew Luck takes a 2-3 win team and makes them a 10 win team. Seattle take a 8-9 win team and makes them a 13 win team. A team with a so-so roster and a solid QB can be a consistent playoff squad. A team with an outstanding roster and a so-so QB would be lucky to squeak into the playoffs and never have a serious shot at contending for anything more. With the way the rookie payscale used to be setup teams couldn't afford to consistently draft QB's high, because their contracts were too rich. That is not the case anymore. EJ's contract is paying him top end backup QB money, so there's no excuse not to draft another QB high again in 2014. If EJ doesn't pan out we have another option, if EJ beats out the draft pick, he will have earned it....and the competition between the two can only help. The bottom line is if you're not sure you have your guy (and there's no way the Bills can feel 100% that EJ will be a star in this league, how could they?) you better continue looking, because without a star QB you have ABSOLUTELY NO SHOT.

 

It can be argued that the Colts were not as bad as they were that season and there is some evidence that they purposefully tanked to win the Luck lottery. As to Seattle, they have a dominating defense that was one of the few last year to slap the Patriots like a bunch of little girls all over the field. I live close enough that I was able to watch Russell Wilson and it was apparent to anyone that caught his games that he was going to be a very solid QB if given the chance, but most scouting departments focus on the SEC and PAC 12 and some solid kids that play in the Big Ten don't get a long look. I cant say I blame them, you look for players from winning programs.

 

One thing that folks on this board do not seem to get is that your team has absolutely no shot at developing a franchise QB if you keep changing the rookie out each year because he does not play like a veteran QB. It is way too early to pull the plug on Manuel - he just has not seen the field enough. And there is no way they will grab back to back first round QB's because that will not help EJ grow and Marrone does not seem to be the type to crush the development of EJ by bringing in another 1st rounder to split reps. It is just not logical and there is zero chance it is going to happen.

 

Now if EJ continues to have issues staying healthy and does not show improvement, I think you will hear a different tone coming out of OBD and there will be clear indications that they do not think EJ has what it takes - that time has not arrived. Contrary to popular belief Marrone does not seem overly tied to any player as many predicted he would stick with and draft Nassib the successful QB he mentored at Syracuse - he didn't. He cut ties and went with a QB that he felt had a better chance of being successful at an NFL level even though EJ was considered a raw prospect. He clearly believes that EJ has what it takes and just needs more snaps and time, I also believe this, but I have been around this team long enough to know that much of that depends on what EJ does to improve his game and much of that depends on how well he is coached.

 

We have all seen supposedly failed QB prospects flourish with the right coaching (Alex Smith comes to mind) - I hope we have that coaching in place or no QB we select will make it. I have no idea if we do or not at this point, but if EJ takes steps in the right direction we will have a better idea about the answer to that question.

[Boatdrinks]

 

 

Just look at the teams in the playoff positions in the AFC.

 

What rosters are better than Buffalo's?

 

The only one, IMO, is KC's and we all know that the only significant player addition they made between being the worst team in the NFL and the 4th seed in the AFC is adding a serviceable NFL QB.

I would bet many would argue that every one of the teams except perhaps Miami have a better roster than the Bills.To think otherwise is to extremely overrate the Bills personnel. Regardless, the Bills tried to add a serviceable NFL QB (Alex Smith)last offseason.That did not pan out, if it had perhaps the Bills are this years KC. So they drafted a QB high. We still don't know the result of that, as it is generally at least a 2-3 season commitment. So if a "serviceable NFL QB" a la Jay Cutler falls at your doorstep this offseason, you sign him. What many fans are failing to realize is that another high pick on a QB in 2014 doesn't equate to a "serviceable NFL QB" because Andrew Luck is not in this draft. So in a sense you would have two EJ Manuel's. Now the odds may be better with two, but the Bills would simply be muddying the waters at the position and missing out on perhaps an elite WR or LB . You can only start/ develop one QB as only one is on the field at any one time.Practice time is extremely limited under the CBA as well The opportunity cost of not drafting another starting player with their 1st round pick is just too great. The reality is Manuel may or may not pan out, no different than another high pick at QB in 2014. It's not about the salary structure, as some would imply. It's about having a player that is actually on the field. A 1st round pick MUST play. Therefore, the Bills will NOT draft a QB high in 2014. A vet FA is possible, and a player such as Cutler would automatically be your starter going forward. Anyone else would probably be competition/ backup. Lewis/Tuel are not good enough as there is really no scenario where you would want either player to be your starter.

[BADOLBILZ]

The problem is: how do you develop any of your QBs if you keep drafting them? seems like unless a guy is an immediate success-- which is rare--then you have to write them off or give them less PT and a chance to develop.

 

Conceptually, I like the idea of drafting QBs every year. But practically speaking, you couldn't give these guys a chance to really succeed.

 

There is no perfect solution, but as Just in Atlanta said....I think competition is still the best approach.

 

A lot has been discussed on the subject.

 

But, let's not forget that even anointing a young QB after one good year is no guarantee that you have your franchise QB.

 

See the Josh Freeman saga.

 

They left him unchallenged after a tough rookie season, he got much better the next year, then plateaued, then proceeded to get worse.

 

They ended up wasting a lot of seasons.

 

Would competition from premium talent have made Freeman a better player? It couldn't have hurt. Or maybe he gets beaten out along the way.

Edited December 21, 2013 by BADOLBEELZ

[thewildrabbit]

Feel free to start a thread rating all of those you mention. This thread is about your confidence level in Manuel.

I get it, and gave him a grade of slightly better then 60%.

 

For me it isn't just about the QB as so many other factors come into play. I was just reminding folks that there is more to how a QB performs then solely just his play.

 

My reasoning also has to do with the fact that EJ only played in 10 games this season, and went 4-6 with a not so good supporting cast. Here is hoping the FO / GM builds a better team around EJ this off season, and gives him more time to show his full potential. One way or the other.

[Dibs]

I do not see the need for the above. What's the difference? People can make a case for Manuel being very good some day, or in fact not being much good at all. It's that close imo. At this point, I do not see a disadvantage playing Lewis in terms of this game only. I ain't seeing much difference.

 

In terms of the posters who applaud every move the Bills make and the "critics," those pointing out the futility of this organization have a pretty good case. Their opinions shouldn't be summarily shut down.

 

Jmo.

 

I wasn't suggesting for any posters to be summarily shut down at all. I was simply asking(pleading actually) for the posters who have made up their minds(and I left that open to include the rare person who believes 100% that EJ is the saviour) to desist from interjecting into discussions about EJ's relative merits and flaws.

 

I also wasn't suggesting that everybody who has made up their minds is guilty of derailing an interesting topic from one of discussing EJ's merits/flaws to one of arguing the merits of premature determination. The vast majority of posters who have finalized their views seem to intrinsically understand that to insert that view into certain discussions is counterproductive to the discussion at hand.

 

You are a good example of this. Though I have seen your thoughts several times recently, like most others, you place those thoughts into an appropriate setting(such as this thread). I haven't seen you(or many others) jump into......say.....a discussion of EJ's mechanics and voice that he will never be any good(thus changing the discussion from one of debate about mechanics to an argument of whether one should have 0% faith in EJ).

[Bill from NYC]

Matter of fact I'd say that the always positive folks are actually more rabid.

 

I agree 100%, and thank you for saying this. They can also get very passive aggressive imo.

 

I LIKE differences of opinion and more often than not, personal attacks don't even bother me. The thing is, the "always positive folks" as you characterized them have little to defend. I would like to give an example if I may:

 

The 4 starters in the Bills secondary consist of 2 early first round picks and 2 very early second round picks. That is a TON of resources, no? The defensive front might actually set a record for sacks to make the game MUCH easier for them. That said, where are the wins? Some will defend this (and of course 1st round running backs) but there is no basis to do so because this team loses football games.

So when posters express the desire for another qb, I don't blame them. Manuel needs to earn his job. I am not going to jump on his bandwagon just because he LOOKS the way one would want a QB to look, and I don't get excited when he poses after one of his rare TD passes.

I want the Buffalo Bills to win football games.

 

PS: For what very little it's worth, I expect Lewis to play well tomorrow.

Edited December 21, 2013 by Bill from NYC