[closed]Draft position probabilities

[OCinBuffalo]

As of today, if we win both games:

13/14th (69% chance) 12-14th (87%). The mode is 13th(most likely outcome in the range)

 

If we win 1 game:

10/11th (68%), 9-11th(88%). Mode is 10th.

 

If we win 0 games:

7/8th (68%) 6-8th(83%). Mode 7th. However, the chance of 9th happening(13%) is only 2 pts off of the chance of 6th(15%) happening. So, that's practially a wash. (And, this reflects the "approaching limit" of this data at the lower boundary, hence the conclusions below)

 

When we get above 80% confidence, normally that's says "enough".

 

Summary:

No top 5. 15% chance of 6, provided we lose both games. Which means, no Manziel, no Bridgewater, no Mariota. I say again: no Manziel, no Bridgewater, no Mariota. Wish all you want, when you get done? No Manziel, no Bridgewater, no Mariota.

 

I believe I should also clarify something for the confused, especially Mike Schoop, and his clones: there was never a chance of us being in the top 5. Or, the odds of that happening, compared to the the odds of it not happening = no contest.

 

Detail:

5 Teams currently "ahead" of us WILL take QB(HOU, JAX, OAK, CLE, MIN), 2 teams might. (ATL and TAM), and let's never count out the Redskins being "aggressive"(read: stupid). All but the one team(MIN) that isn't a "must" at QB, LOST YESTERDAY! Win or lose, we were never going to stay "ahead", in terms of draft order, or "behind", in terms of record, all 7(will/may draft QB) teams. We were never going to stay "ahead" of 3 of them. That's because: 8 teams have always had a better chance to finish "ahead" of us, than we of them.

 

(Notice, this analysis doesn't feature "trade ups" from below 7 for teams that need QB. Trading up to 6, as opposed to 1-3, is a near certainty if any of the top 3 are on the board. So, technically you can add: Jets, PIT, TEN, and even DAL, ARZ, CHI, to the list of teams that need a QB, and will have the resources and draft position to move up ahead of us, but, I don't need to count them, because my argument still defeats the silliness, regardless).

 

The "we should have lost arugument" is nonense. The math NEVER supported your argument. It didn't support it 3 weeks ago, and it doesn't support it now. This is because as we see above: "the approaching limit" = we had an easier schedule, and, there's only so much we could do with 5-6 games remaining and with teams 1-2 losses "ahead" of us, who are worse teams than us. Us losing doesn't account for them losing. In fact, it solves nothing.

 

Conclusion:

As you can plainly see(unless you have an agenda), even if we lose out, we STILL don't get anywhere near(realistically, 7th is as high as we go) where we need to be to pick the player you thought we could get, and nearly ALL the teams in front of us will pick QB.

 

Please abandon the "we should have lost yesterday/I'm happy we lost to ATL/TAM" nonsense. Arguing against math is a waste of the board's time.

 

Thank you.

Edited December 16, 2013 by OCinBuffalo

[K D]

while I appreciate your statistical analysis, we aren't drafting a QB so who cares?

[PaattMaann]

while I appreciate your statistical analysis, we aren't drafting a QB so who cares?

 

THIS times a hundred, who cares if none of those QBs will be available....we arent taking one

 

 

So can we get this thread on the track of...who SHOULD we draft in the 12th-14th slot????

 

Best O-line available? Linebacker (Mack?)? WR (will the top WR on the board still be there?)? TE (is there one worth taking in round one?)?

[OCinBuffalo]

Um, are you a WGR listener? How about: have you read any Bills blogs?

 

How about: have you read any threads here lately?

 

You might want to see what's been said here and there.

[GunnerBill]

And hasn't Mariota said he is staying in College next year anyway?

[PaattMaann]

Um, are you a WGR listener? How about: have you read any Bills blogs?

 

How about: have you read any threads here lately?

 

You might want to see what's been said here and there.

 

by rule I dont listen to WGR because they are not well informed hacks who rely on brash commentary to get listeners

 

and yes I read the threads on here (unfortunately for the most part)

 

my response to your post was an attempt to get some draft discussion going when you take the QB out of the equation (unless were talking like a 3rd/4th rounder brought in to compete if there is one that falls into our lap)

[B-Man]

while I appreciate your statistical analysis, we aren't drafting a QB so who cares?

 

Many posters were recomending it...............................last week.............lol

 

 

My preference:

 

Mack in the first.

 

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE) in the second.

 

Best O-Lineman available in the 3rd.

 

AND ....concentrate on getting the best Free Agent Right Tackle available.

 

 

.

[K D]

Not sure what your point is, but we WANT the other teams ahead of us in the draft to reach for a QB ahead of us. Then the real talent will fall to us at somewhere around pick 10. We win

[OCinBuffalo]

THIS times a hundred, who cares if none of those QBs will be available....we arent taking one

 

 

So can we get this thread on the track of...who SHOULD we draft in the 12th-14th slot????

 

Best O-line available? Linebacker (Mack?)? WR (will the top WR on the board still be there?)? TE (is there one worth taking in round one?)?

I couldn't agree more:

 

The entire reason for this post?

To dig a hole the depth of the Kola hole, and bury the "let's lose out and draft Manziel/Bridewater" argument at the bottom of it.

 

At 7 I want the 2nd best tackle.

At 10 I want the best WR.

At 13 I want the best TE.

 

Of course, if there's a steal I'd take that.

 

Also, to underscore your ASSUMPTION. If we aren't taking QB.....then somebody else is. Trading down becomes an very real likelihood. Because this time, like with Austin, there will be ticket-selling names on the board at 7, and perhaps 10. I don't know why anbody would trade up to 13....

[PaattMaann]

Many posters were recomending it...............................last week.............lol

 

 

My preference:

 

Mack in the first.

 

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE) in the second.

 

Best O-Lineman available in the 3rd.

 

AND ....concentrate on getting the best Free Agent Right Tackle available.

 

 

.

 

is Mack the best LB in this draft?

 

what free agent RT's or G's will be around this year?

[Leelee Phoenix]

I believe I should also clarify something for the confused, especially Mike Schoop, and his clones: there was never a chance of us being in the top 5.

If the Bills lost their remaining games, they would have. It's not hard to count wins and losses.

 

And Mariota said he was returning over a week ago. Maybe you should try listening to WGR and other sports media to keep up on the draft, and not tooting your own dick.

[GunnerBill]

I would definitely entertain trading down if we end up somewhere around #10 unless because of a rush of Quarterbacks coming off the board Mike Evans is still sitting there. If he isn't then see if we can move back in the first and pick up an extra second rounder like we did last year. Then use our top 4 (including the extra 2nd) picks on linebacker, tight end, and a couple of o-linemen unless there is a physical wide receiver there in the second round who we think could make it (is Benjamin from FSU expected to declare? If so where is he being slated to go at the moment?) Basically I'd take a receiver if someone falls to us as the BPA when we are on the clock, but I wouldn't be reaching for a guy as I still think the other positions mentioned above are bigger needs.

[OCinBuffalo]

If the Bills lost their remaining games, they would have. It's not hard to count wins and losses.

 

And Mariota said he was returning over a week ago. Maybe you should try listening to WGR and other sports media to keep up on the draft, and not tooting your own dick.

Ah, so we have a new student. Please sit down over here, and I will educate you in the concept of Odds.

 

You said "we would have". That's 100% chance.

 

That's blatantly ridiculous. The odds of us getting into the top 5, even by losing out the last 5 games, were never above 30%. That's because there were always chances that we wouldn't lose 5 games. 4 games, 3 games, 2, etc., AND, because other teams are worse than us, and losing more, with harder schedules. You aggregate those odds...and yeah, the right answer is:

 

"We almost certainly would not have broken the top 5".

 

Again, if you don't know math, don't argue against it.

 

I am taking ALL possibilities into account. That's how you do this job properly. Until I see a combine list, and until I see players at/not at that combine, you can take your reports, and blow them out your ass.

Edited December 16, 2013 by OCinBuffalo

[PaattMaann]

SCHOOLED! kudos OCin

[Just Jack]

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