Measuring EJ's progress

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

 

Ha...So you're telling me, EJ, having already broken the Bills rookie TD record, is well on his way to a top-20--may be even top-10--all-time NFL QB performance?

 

According to 20 years' list, if the season ended today, EJ (without adding in other rookies this year) would be:

 

QB Rating--10th

Comp. Pct--9th

YPA--18th

YPG--13th

AYA--6th

TD/INT--T8th (ish)

 

What I am saying is in a relative world rookie QBs have not tended to have stellar seasons and you cannot infer a disasterous bust based on a spotty season beacause that's what rookie QBs do.

 

Next season will be a better gauge in my mind.

 

It's past 20 years not all time.

[The Big Cat]

What I am saying is in a relative world rookie QBs have not tended to have stellar seasons and you cannot infer a disasterous bust based on a spotty season beacause that's what rookie QBs do.

 

Next season will be a better gauge in my mind.

 

It's past 20 years not all time.

 

I didn't mean to imply you're full of it. The numbers don't lie, and he's doing it on a team that loves to run the ball.

[dave mcbride]

http://dictionary.re...wse/factoid?s=t

Point of the grammar lesson?

Edited December 16, 2013 by dave mcbride

[Luxy312]

From a data/analytical perspective, it's hard to tell whether EJ is making progress or not. There simply isn't enough data to draw a definitive conclusion. What we can say is that despite W/L, that EJ has had good performances in 4 of his 5 home games (Baltimore is the exception) and poor performances in 4 of his 5 road games (Jacksonville being the exception). Is the game yesterday a sign of improvement? Maybe. The first road game against the Jets he was horrible. Jets pass defense is rated worse than Jacksonville. Game prior against Tampa Bay he was atrocious. They're marginally better against the pass (16th) than Jacksonville as well (21st). One thing that I'm seeing that I like regardless of the outcome is that EJ seems to be taking more shots down field. Watching some of the early games again, you don't see that at all. He was constantly checking down, even on third and long. Yesterday, I would bet there was at least a half dozen times when he was putting the ball out there 15+ yards. There's always going to be a negative-nancy out there that is going to want the Bills to draft yet another quarterback. However, I have significant doubts that will happen in 2014. Manuel appears to be moving in the right direction.

[Boatdrinks]

When it comes to the critics, being in the middle of the pack in those rankings won't really matter. The only three people he'll get compared to are Luck, Wilson and RGIII. All made the playoffs in their first year. Two of them repeated (while RGIII is dealing with drama/slump). EJ has gotten injured twice, and lead the Bills to another losing record while playing on a team with a "dominant defense" (according to certain experts). In the end, it doesn't look good for him.

 

Well, those comparisons are probably more than a little off base. Luck was widely regarded as the best pro prospect since P.Manning, and possibly longer. That was clearly not the case for EJM. Wilson may actually be better than Luck/RGIII but was disregarded as he did not possess the classic size for an NFL QB. This has happened before (i.e. Brees). While the Bills may have a good pass rush and get takeaways, no one really regards them as any kind of "dominant" defense. That defense resides in Seattle, no offense to Wilson. Seattle has the best starters and most depth on D, bar none. The Bills still get gashed by the running game and get beat deep too often. They are a work in progress. So the question is, has EJM done enough to return as the Bills starter next year, or has he been so bad as to draft another QB high in 2014. Lets not forget that this alleged "deep QB draft" is now looking rather ordinary according to most draftniks, due to injuries, regression, and some players returning to college. Bridgewater appears the best of the lot, and will likely not be available when the Bills pick. If he were, they may have to strongly consider it. But EJM has not looked like the Pittsburgh/ @ NYJ EJM, and has had his moments. If he looks good the last 2 games, the Bills likely draft a mid round QB to compete/ back up. I would suggest strongly that they bring in a real QB coach and make Hackett strictly the OC. A proven QB guru would likely help EJM, as he continues to lack touch on short throws and starts slowly in games. This must improve. EJM has done OK for his rookie year. An NFL team will usually give that guy the next season to see if he makes the leap in year 2. That is the likely scenario here. EJM does not compare to Luck/Wilson right now and may never. That guy does not exist in the 2104 draft either, so any speculation about a high pick at QB is largely unrealistic barring a major injury in the last 2 weeks. A stud WR/ LB looks likely right now.

[ColdBlueNorth]

needs more consistency and to hit deep throws.

 

I think he hits the deep throws when they are there and he has time, but the past few teams have taken that away keeping both safeties back and playing mostly 2-deep zone.

 

If nothing else, teams seem to have respect for Manuel's deep ball and Goodwin and Graham's speed. Teams also saw how poorly he fared against the Steelers when they played mostly a 2-deep zone defense against him so until he can show consistent success against it, and the Bills prove they can run against it, other teams are going to use it more.

 

That defense forces a more dink and dunk game with a heavy dose of running which we gave the Jags.

 

 

All this talk about EJ, and I am more concerned lately with how teams are able to convert 3rd and long against our D, and gash it for huge chunks of yards rushing...

[jester43]

It reminds me of former bust OT Mike Williams when the Bills drafted him. Williams came in and he actually crossed his feet when dropping in pass protection. Just something so basic you never see it at the pro level......but Williams played in a heavy run offense at Texas and was a physical mismatch at that level so he got away with it.

i still remember standing at lot1/pole6 at this SAME point in his rookie year when you broke it to me that williams sucked (as i stood there 3 sheets to the wind with my 68 jersey pulled over a down parka). it was the first time i had heard someone come out and say it, but i'll be damned if you weren't right.

 

but i didn't need you to tell me manuel has sme major issues. aye caramba. i just hope marrone sees it.

[BADOLBILZ]

It absolutely is a choice and Fitz is a poor example to attempt backing up your stance.

 

I have never heard anyone imply that Fitz failed because he wasn't a hard worker. That's a new take.

 

But the Bills have been trying to mechanically repair QB's like Rob Johnson, JP Losman and Trent Edwards for most of the past 14 years so why should we casually assume that it's simply a matter of "want-to"?

 

EJ has issues with mechanics but it's more than just that. For instance he looks down at the pass rush and virtually refuses to climb the pocket and his field vision is very poor also. I sit at the 50 yard line at home.......and EJ just flat out doesn't see all of his receivers. It seems teams have found a blind spot from which to blitz him in recent weeks as well.

 

It's not a given that hard work will eliminate these issues. Plenty of Tarzan's have been turned into Jane's by these types of problems and I sincerely doubt it was just a case of them all being lazy.

 

With the case of a blind spot, it can be a LITERAL blind spot in your vision. I had better than 20/20 vision in my teens and 20's but I still had a blind spot in my right eye. It's not a black spot....you just don't see an object in a certain part of your peripheral vision unless you are looking toward it. I suspect this has been an issue for quite a few QB's over the years.

[John from Riverside]

I have never heard anyone imply that Fitz failed because he wasn't a hard worker. That's a new take.

 

But the Bills have been trying to mechanically repair QB's like Rob Johnson, JP Losman and Trent Edwards for most of the past 14 years so why should we casually assume that it's simply a matter of "want-to"?

 

EJ has issues with mechanics but it's more than just that. For instance he looks down at the pass rush and virtually refuses to climb the pocket and his field vision is very poor also. I sit at the 50 yard line at home.......and EJ just flat out doesn't see all of his receivers. It seems teams have found a blind spot from which to blitz him in recent weeks as well.

 

It's not a given that hard work will eliminate these issues. Plenty of Tarzan's have been turned into Jane's by these types of problems and I sincerely doubt it was just a case of them all being lazy.

 

With the case of a blind spot, it can be a LITERAL blind spot in your vision. I had better than 20/20 vision in my teens and 20's but I still had a blind spot in my right eye. It's not a black spot....you just don't see an object in a certain part of your peripheral vision unless you are looking toward it. I suspect this has been an issue for quite a few QB's over the years.

 

If what you say is true....then why was he finding them as the game went on?

 

Lets keep in mind here.....EJ played a LOUSY first quarter then finished with a respectable completion percentage....which means he got much better after that 1st quarter.

 

I still maintain that its just that the game hasnt slowed down for him yet.....and he seems to find his game when his back is against the wall and HAS to perform. To me that says talent is there but he really would have benefited from holding a clipboard for a year.

[BADOLBILZ]

i still remember standing at lot1/pole6 at this SAME point in his rookie year when you broke it to me that williams sucked (as i stood there 3 sheets to the wind with my 68 jersey pulled over a down parka). it was the first time i had heard someone come out and say it, but i'll be damned if you weren't right.

 

but i didn't need you to tell me manuel has sme major issues. aye caramba. i just hope marrone sees it.

 

I am most concerned about a lack of "wow" moments from him. Fans so badly want Manuel to excel so they are taking solace in what amounts to success on a lot of really easy throws. The stats comparing QB's of the last 20 years don't mean a whole lot to me. The league has changed a lot over the last 5 years.

 

In the past two weeks, the only great throw I thought he made was actually in the Tampa game. It was a deep inside route to Stevie(I believe) that he absolutely drilled and put it where the safety couldn't make a play. Top QB's make these throw all the time. This throw happened during an otherwise absolutely scattershot performance.

 

Being able to make some impressive throws isn't a guarantee of success either. The JP Losman game in Houston is a prime example. He made several incredible throws that day, including the game-winner to Peerless in the back of the endzone and a breathtaking, indefinsible low trajectory TD bomb to Lee Evans early in the game.

 

It is still a concern that EJ isn't making some great throws. I also thought he would make more dynamic plays with his feet. Running the ball helped him a lot at FSU, IMO. He's had a couple nice TD runs but not the big plays. I actually thought Poz was going to track him down from behind on that one scramble he had yesterday. Don't really care for his simple assessment of the difference between the NFL and college which was apparently "the hits hurt a lot more". Everytime he refuses to climb the pocket that one will be in the back of my mind.

[BADOLBILZ]

Incorrect.

 

This must be one of those "rare occasions".

 

 

Lawson is a full time starter and Hughes plays the other OLB position on the opposite side. We don't play a straight up 3-4, 4-3 or any other combination so who starts and where all depends on the personnel group we use. But Lawson has been the starter at one OLB(I want to sayROLB)for a majority of the games.

 

Just for the record:

 

 

At the risk of indulging you two......Lawson and Hughes have combined to be involved in only 115% of the defensive snaps this year(60/55 split). I believe Mario is at 86% so there is the math....almost to the percentage point......for your primary 2 OLB positions. The OLB's play both sides. Kiko of course plays every snap so he is the epitome of an every down LB.

 

Obviously, the Bills play a multiple look defense. Their best personnel grouping is probably their 3-3-5 nickel. Robey and Searcy are better football players than Moats or Bradham.

 

But that's a pretty accurate breakdown, because when Manny got hurt, Hughes played more, etc.. Week 14 Manny played 74% and Hughes 38% so the numbers aren't skewed.....that is simply how they are used.

[John from Riverside]

Just for the record:

 

 

At the risk of indulging you two......Lawson and Hughes have combined to be involved in only 115% of the defensive snaps this year(60/55 split). I believe Mario is at 86% so there is the math....almost to the percentage point......for your primary 2 OLB positions. The OLB's play both sides. Kiko of course plays every snap so he is the epitome of an every down LB.

 

Obviously, the Bills play a multiple look defense. Their best personnel grouping is probably their 3-3-5 nickel. Robey and Searcy are better football players than Moats or Bradham.

 

But that's a pretty accurate breakdown, because when Manny got hurt, Hughes played more, etc.. Week 14 Manny played 74% and Hughes 38% so the numbers aren't skewed.....that is simply how they are used.

 

In what way does this not make them "starters"......they do in fact play every game. Is it because they dont get the credits when the announcers are announcing the lineups at the beginning of the games?

 

Bro.....they are starters

[26CornerBlitz]

@ChrisBrownBills

Doug Marrone said EJ Manuel sprained his knee in Sunday's game, but obviously finished and said he should be fine for Sunday's game. #Bills

[Boatdrinks]

I am most concerned about a lack of "wow" moments from him. Fans so badly want Manuel to excel so they are taking solace in what amounts to success on a lot of really easy throws. The stats comparing QB's of the last 20 years don't mean a whole lot to me. The league has changed a lot over the last 5 years.

The stat's of 1st year QB's over the last 20 years would really be quite relevant. The biggest changes in the league the last 5 years would be the new CBA which allows very little practice time (critical in developing a QB) and the "defenseless receiver" garbage which prevents DBs from hitting over the middle. The Bills haven't taken advantage of this with a big WR or elite TE that can dominate the middle of the field. 5 years of stats would be too small a sample, possibly skewed by the rare season or two. Most QB's still do not "excel" in their first season. Whether it means a lot to you or not does not mean it is not factual or less relevant. Most fans want Manuel to succeed by realize the jury is still out. Finding positives in performance does not equate to taking solace. It is a balanced, realistic assessment that the statistical odds do not favor EJM or any other QB being a hall of famer. Rookie QBs are generally coached to play it safe and not turn the ball over, as the goal is still to win football games. EJM looks overly mechanical at times, as if he's trying to be too perfect. Hopefully this trend reverses as the game slows down for him and the Bills decide to get a dedicated, proven QB coach. Leaving this unpolished rookie in the hands of Nate Hackett seems a mistake. But it is still the RARE rookie QB that has many "wow" moments that you describe. The last 5 years have provided a few of those, along with the usual uneven performances. There are reasons to doubt if EJM will be the guy to get the Bills to the playoffs, but he likely will be given at least 2014 to see if he improves.

[zow2]

I am most concerned about a lack of "wow" moments from him. Fans so badly want Manuel to excel so they are taking solace in what amounts to success on a lot of really easy throws. The stats comparing QB's of the last 20 years don't mean a whole lot to me. The league has changed a lot over the last 5 years.

 

In the past two weeks, the only great throw I thought he made was actually in the Tampa game. It was a deep inside route to Stevie(I believe) that he absolutely drilled and put it where the safety couldn't make a play. Top QB's make these throw all the time. This throw happened during an otherwise absolutely scattershot performance.

 

Being able to make some impressive throws isn't a guarantee of success either. The JP Losman game in Houston is a prime example. He made several incredible throws that day, including the game-winner to Peerless in the back of the endzone and a breathtaking, indefinsible low trajectory TD bomb to Lee Evans early in the game.

 

It is still a concern that EJ isn't making some great throws. I also thought he would make more dynamic plays with his feet. Running the ball helped him a lot at FSU, IMO. He's had a couple nice TD runs but not the big plays. I actually thought Poz was going to track him down from behind on that one scramble he had yesterday. Don't really care for his simple assessment of the difference between the NFL and college which was apparently "the hits hurt a lot more". Everytime he refuses to climb the pocket that one will be in the back of my mind.

 

That's a pretty fair assessment. I still need to see a lot more from EJ to make me feel like he is better than a perennial 6-10 type QB in this league. He seems very robotic in his reads..."1-2-pressure-checkdown!" He's only had maybe 5 throws all season where i said to myself "Ok, we may have something here". He really needs to get confident in his decisions and make them quicker. He obviously has the arm as he flings the ball with relative ease. There was a throw to Woods early in the 4th Qtr yesterday that was really good. It was a rope like 20 yards down the middle of the field into a tight window. I thought that was a great pass. The one to Marquise was a perfect throw too but it went right through Goodwin's arms then he got drilled. Everytime i think we need to un-hitch the EJ wagon he makes a couple throws or wins a game that gives us hope. I bet the coaching staff feels the same way. Will he be able to grow tremendously in 2014 now that he tasted the NFL? Let's hope. I still think it's classic Bills luck that we draft a Fla State QB, but he's the wrong Fla State QB. The one we really want is playing there now and just won the Heisman with virtually the same cast of players EJ had. That guy will end up with the Jets or Jags someday and kill us repeatedly. Ugh.

[C.Biscuit97]

That's a pretty fair assessment. I still need to see a lot more from EJ to make me feel like he is better than a perennial 6-10 type QB in this league. He seems very robotic in his reads..."1-2-pressure-checkdown!" He's only had maybe 5 throws all season where i said to myself "Ok, we may have something here". He really needs to get confident in his decisions and make them quicker. He obviously has the arm as he flings the ball with relative ease. There was a throw to Woods early in the 4th Qtr yesterday that was really good. It was a rope like 20 yards down the middle of the field into a tight window. I thought that was a great pass. The one to Marquise was a perfect throw too but it went right through Goodwin's arms then he got drilled. Everytime i think we need to un-hitch the EJ wagon he makes a couple throws or wins a game that gives us hope. I bet the coaching staff feels the same way. Will he be able to grow tremendously in 2014 now that he tasted the NFL? Let's hope. I still think it's classic Bills luck that we draft a Fla State QB, but he's the wrong Fla State QB. The one we really want is playing there now and just won the Heisman with virtually the same cast of players EJ had. That guy will end up with the Jets or Jags someday and kill us repeatedly. Ugh.

 

1) He's a rookie.

 

2) He's a rookie who missed a month and half of his first season.

 

3) I wonder what you thought of Mat Stafford after he won 1 game and plays with one of hte greatest wrs in NFL history.

 

4) So the Qb after Manuel wins the Heisman and gives a lot of credit to Manuel for mentoring him, and that's a knock on EJ? Winston was the best Qb in the entire country!!! Tennessee won a national championship with Tee Martin. The QB for the previous 4 years: Peyton Manning. So obviously, Manning was holding Tennessee back.

[BADOLBILZ]

The stat's of 1st year QB's over the last 20 years would really be quite relevant. The biggest changes in the league the last 5 years would be the new CBA which allows very little practice time (critical in developing a QB) and the "defenseless receiver" garbage which prevents DBs from hitting over the middle. The Bills haven't taken advantage of this with a big WR or elite TE that can dominate the middle of the field. 5 years of stats would be too small a sample, possibly skewed by the rare season or two. Most QB's still do not "excel" in their first season. Whether it means a lot to you or not does not mean it is not factual or less relevant. Most fans want Manuel to succeed by realize the jury is still out. Finding positives in performance does not equate to taking solace. It is a balanced, realistic assessment that the statistical odds do not favor EJM or any other QB being a hall of famer. Rookie QBs are generally coached to play it safe and not turn the ball over, as the goal is still to win football games. EJM looks overly mechanical at times, as if he's trying to be too perfect. Hopefully this trend reverses as the game slows down for him and the Bills decide to get a dedicated, proven QB coach. Leaving this unpolished rookie in the hands of Nate Hackett seems a mistake. But it is still the RARE rookie QB that has many "wow" moments that you describe. The last 5 years have provided a few of those, along with the usual uneven performances. There are reasons to doubt if EJM will be the guy to get the Bills to the playoffs, but he likely will be given at least 2014 to see if he improves.

 

The NFL has changed a lot in the past 5 years. If Chris Chandler(aka Crystal Chandelier) were playing today he would be throwing for 5,000 yards and doing the discount double check on tv.

 

It's futile to deny it and try to lump in the last 20 years. Last week the most TD's in NFL history were scored. This week, the most overall points. Was it 3 years ago that 7 of the top 25 all time passing yardage seasons were accomplished? EJ's numbers need to be kept in perspective because the rising tide has raised all ships. He is under a fraction of the pressure and receiving almost no impact from opponents hits compared to what JP Losman or Trent Edwards had to face when they were first playing for the Bills.

Edited December 17, 2013 by BADOLBEELZ

[Reed83HOF]

The NFL has changed a lot in the past 5 years. If Chris Chandler(aka Crystal Chadelier) were playing today he would be throwing for 5,000 yards and doing the discount double check on tv.

 

It's futile to deny it and try to lump in the last 20 years. Last week the most TD's in NFL history were scored. This week, the most overall points. Was it 3 years ago that 7 of the top 25 all time passing yardage seasons were accomplished? EJ's numbers need to be kept in perspective because the rising tide has raised all ships. He is under a fraction of the pressure and receiving almost no impact from opponents hits compared to what JP Losman or Trent Edwards had to face when they were first playing for the Bills.

 

300 yard games used to be hard as hell to get...everyone has them now. Even the 1,000 yards/1400 yards a season rushing is easier now. The rules slanted to the offense have really ruined this game...

 

That franchise QB cures an awful lot for all teams nowadays. NE would be lucky to win 1 game without Brady this season and they are one of the top teams in the AFC...you draft a QB until you get it right....

[BADOLBILZ]

300 yard games used to be hard as hell to get...everyone has them now. Even the 1,000 yards/1400 yards a season rushing is easier now. The rules slanted to the offense have really ruined this game...

 

That franchise QB cures an awful lot for all teams nowadays. NE would be lucky to win 1 game without Brady this season and they are one of the top teams in the AFC...you draft a QB until you get it right....

 

I hate not having a franchise QB......but it used to be excruciating to watch a JP Losman or Trent Edwards play with the pressure and tight windows they had to throw into. You had to give those guys the 25-30 starts because the bullets that were flying at them were real.

 

Young QB's have it good nowadays. EJ isn't taking helmets to the chin strap or having defenders diving at his knees while he is defenseless in the pocket. It is so much easier to play the position without that abuse and with receivers not fearing career threatening hits over the middle.

 

Wanting to go back 20 years and compare todays QB's to those entering the league during the rise of the zone blitz is ridiculous. Even veterans struggled to adapt to the complicated defenses of the mid-1990's to early 2000's. The rules changes took the steam right out of defensive football 5 years ago.

 

But we are here trying to draw parallels to rookie QB's of a bygone era. You'd think we would have learned how much those numbers mean today when we had maybe the 27th best starting QB in football the past two years in Ryan Fitzpatrick and he was putting up Jim Kelly-like 25 TD pass seasons.

[Buffalo Bob]

Excerpted from another thread and posted here:

 

Here's a list of the most recent first round QBs and where they were drafted:

 

Matthew Stafford 1st overall 2009

Mark Sanchez 5th overall 2009

Josh Freeman 17th overall 2009

Sam Bradford 1st overall 2010

Tim Tebow 25th overall 2010

Cam Newton 1st overall 2011

Jake Locker 8th overall 2011

Blaine Gabbert 10th overall 2011

Christian Ponder 12th overall 2011

Andrew Luck 1st overall 2012

RG3 2nd overall 2012

Ryan Tannehill 8th overall 2012

Brandon Weeden 22nd overall 2012

 

Only two of those players have established themselves as bona fide quality NFL starters, Stafford and Newton. Both of those guys were taken first overall.

 

Of the other players drafted in the Top 5, it's looking very likely that Luck and RG3 will have great careers and it's looking more and more certain that Sanchez and Bradford are gonna be busts.

 

Then you have players taken outside the top 5 where EJ was selected:

 

Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden.

 

I would take EJ over any of those guys. Only Tannehill and Locker have an argument and Locker is in his 3rd NFL season.

 

Then you consider how well EJ has played especially considering he missed half the preseason and 5 weeks of the regular season.

 

Then you consider that the Bills traded down and still got Manuel.

 

Then you realize that people posting on this board and expressing disappointment in EJ's rookie season really have no idea what they're talking about because they have no idea what a rookie QB in the NFL is realistically expected to do.

 

Edited by San Jose Bills Fan, 07 December 2013 - 09:33 AM.