EJ Manuel IS our franchise QB

[RuntheDamnBall]

Fred, Hairston and Aaron Williams are all under contract for next season. Lawson is locked up through the 2016 season. 4year 12 mill. Moats is a free agent after this year as well as branch (who I'd love to sign, but Dareus is a FA after next season), chandler and carrington. I can see us letting all of our ufa's walk. Byrd will be interesting.

Aha. Thanks for clarification. I obvs had some bad information.

[Gabe Northern]

Don't blame FSU. Jimbo gave every possible chance for EJ to succeed there. They know how limited he is.

 

FSU coaches really messed up Jameis Winston

[All_Pro_Bills]

I went back to Draft Insider to see what they said about EJ prior to the draft. They concluded he offers starting 'potential'. Sounds about right to me based on the body of work so far except a couple things IMO I disagree with which I'll bold. The underlined statement might be a negative since that positive got him hurt. The negatives are right-on.

 

Bio: Full-time starter the past two seasons and awarded all-Conference honors as a senior. Passing totals last season included 68%/3392 yards/23 TDs/10 Interceptions. Junior totals included 65.3%/2666/18/8.

 

Positive: Athletic quarterback who makes plays with his arm and legs. Patient in the pocket, remains poised under the rush, and possesses a quick, powerful release. Gets rid of the ball with a flick of his wrist, drives deep passes downfield or powers the ball through tight windows. Loses nothing passing on the move, effective running with the ball, and keeps the play in bounds trying to pick up as much yardage as possible. Flashes the ability to throw beautiful strikes down the field. Can escape the rush, improvises when things break down, and makes a lot of athletic plays on the field. Consistently keeps his eyes downfield looking for targets and stays in the game.

 

Negative: Inconsistent with his mechanics setting up and delivering the ball. Must improve his accuracy and pass placement. Late getting the ball to receivers or finding secondary targets. Doesn't show good timing on throws. Makes poor choices throwing the ball.

 

Analysis: From a physical standpoint Manuel rates with any quarterback in this draft, yet he displayed minimal development last season at the position. He offers starting potential at the next level, yet is a passer who needs work from the ground up and is a long way from being NFL-ready.

Edited December 11, 2013 by All_Pro_Bills

[Bufcomments]

To consistently win in the NFL you need a great passing offense. doesn't have to be 5000 yards passing but you need to convert 3rd downs. When it is 3rd and 7 who is the clutch receiver, Stevie "dropies" Johnson, Scott "butter fingers" Chandler, TJ Graham? The Bills need a Big, Tall TE or WR with big hands who can make tough catches to move the chains. They also can use a better Guard and overall OL depth.

 

I would say they need both a beast WR AND an clutch TE.

[BADOLBILZ]

Matt Stafford's rookie year (playing with the best wr in the NFL): 53.3%, 6 ypa, 13 tds, 20 ints. http://www.nfl.com/p...d/79860/profile Those are worse numbers than EJ has playing on a team that doesn't exactly have Calvin Johnson to throw jump passes too (Cue the posters to say you can't look at the stats because they knew Stafford was going to be awesome).

 

 

That is like saying Aaron Rodgers sat on the bench for 3 years so that is proof that you should sit a QB on the bench for 3 years. It is the very definition of a cherry picked statistical example.

 

I agree that EJ's low completion and low y/a stats don't PRECLUDE him from eventually becoming a good quarterback......but they are VERY concerning. Especially because these Bills aren't those Lions. This Bills team is in the middle of the league in terms of overall talent. Those Lions were arguably the least talented team in the NFL. That was a really bad situation for a rookie QB. Here? Not too bad. Talented defense, veteran OL, decent receivers and two 1000 yard type rushers that teams had to account for. EJ has played much of the year with teams focused on stopping the run and inviting the Bills to pass.

[Numark]

To all of the people that hope EJ grows, I have one thing to say. Hope is not a plan of action!!!

 

Keep taking 2 QB's in every draft until we have a lights out HOF QB. Some years take them in the 1^st and 5^th round... other years 3^rd and 7^th... all depending on all other needs as well. Some years take a 7^th and 3 undrafted guys. Just keep taking QB's.

 

EJ might work out... I hope he does, but hope that fails to lead to success is a waste of time. Plan for success.

 

You don't go into battle hoping for success. You plan for it, you have back ups for your back up plan. All plans go awry somewhat. To not plan that EJ stinks is a failure of duty as a front office.

 

I can't believe people think like this. Just keep draft QBs until one shows he is an elite QB in year 1? When that (never) happens, what do you do when they suck their sophomore season?

[BADOLBILZ]

I can't believe people think like this. Just keep draft QBs until one shows he is an elite QB in year 1? When that (never) happens, what do you do when they suck their sophomore season?

 

QB is the only position where it is imperative to have a great player.

 

Do they have to be an elite QB in year 1? Of course not. But if they play poorly there should be real competition in place.

 

If the Bills had simply drafted the next QB that came off the board in each of the past 14 drafts that preceded each of their non-playoff seasons they would have ended up with Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick.......5 of the most valuable commodities in the NFL. That's 3 of the last 5 SB winning QB's.......and both QB's from last years SB.

 

Instead, they have Leodis, CJ, Dareus, Gilmore and EJ to show for 14 years of first picks. That is ALL that's left for 14 years of losing.

 

So when you are scoffing at the idea of drafting QB's early repeatedly keep in mind what the team actually gets with that first round pick long term.

 

As for the idea that these QB's must be coddled or not provided serious competition......most of them have to earn their jobs in college against other highly touted prospects so I don't think competition hurts enough to warrant much consideration. In fact, I am pretty sure it helps focus these players on the job at hand.

[thebandit27]

That is like saying Aaron Rodgers sat on the bench for 3 years so that is proof that you should sit a QB on the bench for 3 years. It is the very definition of a cherry picked statistical example.

 

I agree that EJ's low completion and low y/a stats don't PRECLUDE him from eventually becoming a good quarterback......but they are VERY concerning. Especially because these Bills aren't those Lions. This Bills team is in the middle of the league in terms of overall talent. Those Lions were arguably the least talented team in the NFL. That was a really bad situation for a rookie QB. Here? Not too bad. Talented defense, veteran OL, decent receivers and two 1000 yard type rushers that teams had to account for. EJ has played much of the year with teams focused on stopping the run and inviting the Bills to pass.

 

In a vacuum, all statistical examples are cherry-picked.

 

I disagree that there's a huge difference in talent between the 2009 Lions and the 2013 Bills; they're actually quite similar.

 

The 2009 Lions had:

 

- A 1st round rookie QB

- Two former 1st round picks at WR (one of whom was Calvin)

- A starting RB coming off of a near-1,000-yard rookie season (in 12 starts)

- A 1st round rookie starting TE

- 1st round picks starting at LT and RT, 2nd round pick starting at C, and a 3rd round pick starting at RG

 

They were short on veterans, but big on talent.

 

Obviously this doesn't absolve EJ from needing to get better; I just think there's more in common in the two situations than perhaps you may have realized at first.

 

QB is the only position where it is imperative to have a great player.

 

Do they have to be an elite QB in year 1? Of course not. But if they play poorly there should be real competition in place.

 

If the Bills had simply drafted the next QB that came off the board in each of the past 14 drafts that preceded each of their non-playoff seasons they would have ended up with Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick.......5 of the most valuable commodities in the NFL. That's 3 of the last 5 SB winning QB's.......and both QB's from last years SB.

 

Instead, they have Leodis, CJ, Dareus, Gilmore and EJ to show for 14 years of first picks. That is ALL that's left for 14 years of losing.

 

So when you are scoffing at the idea of drafting QB's early repeatedly keep in mind what the team actually gets with that first round pick long term.

 

As for the idea that these QB's must be coddled or not provided serious competition......most of them have to earn their jobs in college against other highly touted prospects so I don't think competition hurts enough to warrant much consideration. In fact, I am pretty sure it helps focus these players on the job at hand.

 

Now see this I mostly agree with...although I think it's impractical to simply keep bringing in QBs year after year, as it becomes difficult for them to get enough snaps in camp/practice/pre-season to properly evaluate them.

[Rob's House]

QB is the only position where it is imperative to have a great player.

 

Do they have to be an elite QB in year 1? Of course not. But if they play poorly there should be real competition in place.

 

If the Bills had simply drafted the next QB that came off the board in each of the past 14 drafts that preceded each of their non-playoff seasons they would have ended up with Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler and Colin Kaepernick.......5 of the most valuable commodities in the NFL. That's 3 of the last 5 SB winning QB's.......and both QB's from last years SB.

 

Instead, they have Leodis, CJ, Dareus, Gilmore and EJ to show for 14 years of first picks. That is ALL that's left for 14 years of losing.

 

So when you are scoffing at the idea of drafting QB's early repeatedly keep in mind what the team actually gets with that first round pick long term.

 

As for the idea that these QB's must be coddled or not provided serious competition......most of them have to earn their jobs in college against other highly touted prospects so I don't think competition hurts enough to warrant much consideration. In fact, I am pretty sure it helps focus these players on the job at hand.

 

That sentence pretty well sums it up. There's no reason not to give EJ another season to get it together. There's also no reason not to have another viable option on the roster going into next season.

 

In a vacuum, all statistical examples are cherry-picked.

 

I disagree that there's a huge difference in talent between the 2009 Lions and the 2013 Bills; they're actually quite similar.

 

The 2009 Lions had:

 

- A 1st round rookie QB

- Two former 1st round picks at WR (one of whom was Calvin)

- A starting RB coming off of a near-1,000-yard rookie season (in 12 starts)

- A 1st round rookie starting TE

- 1st round picks starting at LT and RT, 2nd round pick starting at C, and a 3rd round pick starting at RG

 

They were short on veterans, but big on talent.

If you watched both teams play I don't think you can honestly say that. You can enumerate all the points you want, but that team was horrible. Stafford had no protection. Sure, there have been a couple of games this year where the protection broke down for the Bills, but nothing like that Lions team saw week in week out. And touting Roy Williams as a positive on account of his draft status is a stretch.

[RyanC883]

EJ would be sitting on the bench at FSU right now if he wasn't a senior last year. Winston is an NFL level QB, EJ is showing to be not so much. He can't throw a ball with the necessary touch.

 

I went back to Draft Insider to see what they said about EJ prior to the draft. They concluded he offers starting 'potential'. Sounds about right to me based on the body of work so far except a couple things IMO I disagree with which I'll bold. The underlined statement might be a negative since that positive got him hurt. The negatives are right-on.

 

Bio: Full-time starter the past two seasons and awarded all-Conference honors as a senior. Passing totals last season included 68%/3392 yards/23 TDs/10 Interceptions. Junior totals included 65.3%/2666/18/8.

 

Positive: Athletic quarterback who makes plays with his arm and legs. Patient in the pocket, remains poised under the rush, and possesses a quick, powerful release. Gets rid of the ball with a flick of his wrist, drives deep passes downfield or powers the ball through tight windows. Loses nothing passing on the move, effective running with the ball, and keeps the play in bounds trying to pick up as much yardage as possible. Flashes the ability to throw beautiful strikes down the field. Can escape the rush, improvises when things break down, and makes a lot of athletic plays on the field. Consistently keeps his eyes downfield looking for targets and stays in the game.

 

Negative: Inconsistent with his mechanics setting up and delivering the ball. Must improve his accuracy and pass placement. Late getting the ball to receivers or finding secondary targets. Doesn't show good timing on throws. Makes poor choices throwing the ball.

 

Analysis: From a physical standpoint Manuel rates with any quarterback in this draft, yet he displayed minimal development last season at the position. He offers starting potential at the next level, yet is a passer who needs work from the ground up and is a long way from being NFL-ready.

 

Not sure I've seen your bolded positives in action this season either. I agree with the assessment that he could be an NFL starter, but not yet. Interestingly, until last game I was very impressed with his lack of turnovers.

[Bill from NYC]

Now see this I mostly agree with...although I think it's impractical to simply keep bringing in QBs year after year, as it becomes difficult for them to get enough snaps in camp/practice/pre-season to properly evaluate them.

 

I disagree.

Players get hurt. Even if they are taken in round 2, players such as Murray and/or McCarron would almost certainly see playing time, this if they don't win the starting job in camp.

Also, nobody has a higher trade value than a quarterback. It was like this even before the rule changes (Schuab, RJ, etc.). Drafting a good quarterback simply cannot hurt a football team. It's a sound investment. I am guessing that Green Bay wishes they had one on the bench.

[The Big Cat]

I disagree.

Players get hurt. Even if they are taken in round 2, players such as Murray and/or McCarron would almost certainly see playing time, this if they don't win the starting job in camp.

Also, nobody has a higher trade value than a quarterback. It was like this even before the rule changes (Schuab, RJ, etc.). Drafting a good quarterback simply cannot hurt a football team. It's a sound investment. I am guessing that Green Bay wishes they had one on the bench.

 

If Aaron Murray is still hanging around in the 2nd round this year...mmmm

[dave mcbride]

As to Badol's point about competition, the Bills don't have a decent second QB on the roster. Generally speaking, teams with a question mark at QB need a second one who is a potential starter with upside. That the Bills lack.

 

As for drafting lots of QBs, this story is admittedly a year and half old, but it's certainly revealing. Of the ten teams that have drafted the most QBs over time (20 years), 8 have winning records. Another - the Jets (.480 largely because of the Rich Kotite years) - has been to the playoff many times. Many of them have won multiple Super Bowls.

 

http://espn.go.com/b...t-favre-rodgers

Edited December 11, 2013 by dave mcbride

[RuntheDamnBall]

If Aaron Murray is still hanging around in the 2nd round this year...mmmm

I'm OK with that and would have been fine with him in the first last year if he'd been there.

[John from Riverside]

To the people who keep paroting to continue taking QBs in the 1st round "until you find one"

 

- If you dont put blue chip talent around the QB.....it isnt gonna matter

- If you dont stop for a second and try to groom a 1st round pick QB.....you will never know if you have something and will just continue to repeat the cycle over and over and over

 

I maintain this....I seriously dont think the plan from the jump was to start EJ Manuel.....I think they wanted to start Kolb and ease Manuel in.......

 

but....here we are......so.......

[CardinalScotts]

I have complete faith in EJ and the coaches - my expectation were to be around .500ish and leave no doubt EJ is the quarterback. I wish he would have played 16 games at the end of the season but he didn't. I also don't evaluate game by game all players have ups and downs

[NickelCity]

If Aaron Murray is still hanging around in the 2nd round this year...mmmm

 

I'd sprint to the podium. And he may very well be there. I'm a Murray fan for sure.

Edited December 12, 2013 by NickelCity

[BillsVet]

To the people who keep paroting to continue taking QBs in the 1st round "until you find one"

 

- If you dont put blue chip talent around the QB.....it isnt gonna matter

- If you dont stop for a second and try to groom a 1st round pick QB.....you will never know if you have something and will just continue to repeat the cycle over and over and over

 

I maintain this....I seriously dont think the plan from the jump was to start EJ Manuel.....I think they wanted to start Kolb and ease Manuel in.......

 

but....here we are......so.......

 

John, this isn't team building circa 1990. In other words drafting like Buddy Nix isn't going to help you win in 2013-14. You may recall Nix's strategy was to build all the other elements of a team and then get the QB. Never mind that he didn't get the QB thing right, but he didn't get the OL done, didn't get the skill positions done, and the defense never worked either. And given that Manuel isn't making much compared to previous first round QB selections, the cost versus the benefit of taking another one early isn't nearly as great. A QB has to make plays (i.e. throws) and Manuel isn't doing it frequently enough. Watch the All-22 film.

 

The fastest way to becoming a playoff-caliber team is to nail the QB thing. That position is the greatest force-multiplier because it makes everyone better.

Edited December 12, 2013 by BillsVet

[BADOLBILZ]

The fastest way to becoming a playoff-caliber team is to nail the QB thing. That position is the greatest force-multiplier because it makes everyone better.

 

 

Precisely. If you put Tom Brady on the Bills, they would be fighting for homefiield advantage right now. So even if they only had 4 contributing players out of 14 years of first picks.....none of them a great player on this QB deprived Bills team....... they would still be a favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

 

I hesitate to say that first round picks are the most overrated thing in the NFL but if that pick wasn't a QB it probably isn't going to be the difference between winning a SB or not winning one.

 

Remove the QB from the equation. If you look at the active, healthy starting 21 of the AFC teams that would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today the only roster I would rather have than Buffalo's would be the Chiefs. And if the Chiefs had let Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Albert walk last offseason......which I suspect the Bills would have in the same situation....then the Bills roster would be better.

 

JFH........we gotta' face it, these teams are QB driven.

[ThrowingFitz]

I dont want to wait 3-4 years to see if EJ can "become" Matt Schaub or Alex Smith or Sam Bradford or Carson Palmer "under the right circumstances."

 

Agreed. Bills Nation has been waiting far to long. We need a quality QB end of story. EJ isn't that guy.

 

How is that improving the team if we use that valuable resource on another QB?

 

It helps by at least trying to find a quality QB. If you don't you might as well just keep trying to put the square block in the round hole. Without a QB this team simply will not succeed.

 

Just the fact that this discussion is taking place is a good indicator of what is going through the hearts and minds of our team. He has shown very poor accuracy, decision making, and now most likely lacks the full confidence of his fellow players. Get rid of the hack and keep drafting until we find the next Manning.