Stacking the box

[vegas55]

It's conventional wisdom in the NFL that you need to establish the run, so as to force the defense to respect the run first, force them to bring a safety up in run support etc. We are told this is necessary to open up the passing game.

 

Well okay - but what we often see, and what the Bills have often faced, is a defense that stacks the box, brings the safety up, plays run first from the very first play of the game. So before the Bills have even run a play, the box is stacked and establishing the run is not necessary to accomplish the goal of making the defense play run first. But the Bills response to this is curious; they continue to constantly run on first down, into the teeth of a stacked box. In an effort to do what? Force the other team to respect the run and stack the box to stop it? They are already doing that.

 

This explains in large part the mediocre results the Bills running game has produced in recent games.

 

 

[Quester74]

They do this because the two best/most talented players they have on offense are the RBs. With a more seasoned QB under center, I would like to think that will change in the future.

[mrags]

Seems to me that the increasing deep ball and threats deep throughout games have proved you incorrect.

 

The offensive line has just been horrible for the run game this year, that and CJ has definitely disappointed.

[mannc]

It's conventional wisdom in the NFL that you need to establish the run, so as to force the defense to respect the run first, force them to bring a safety up in run support etc. We are told this is necessary to open up the passing game.

 

I'm not sure what you have been watching, but this has not been true for the past 25 years or so. Teams stack the box only when the offense is unable to establish a credible vertical passing threat. That is why teams have stacked the box against the Bills this year. Edited November 28, 2013 by mannc

[vegas55]

I'm not sure what you have been watching, but this has not been true for the past 25 years or so. Teams stack the box only when the offense is unable to establish a credible vertical passing threat. That is why teams have stacked the box against the Bills this year.

 

Well I watch as many NFL games as you, and more importantly, I listen to what today's NFL coaches, who watch more film than any fan, actually say. And what they consistently say about establishing the run is what I posted. I think they know a little bit about what's happening in today's NFL

 

In any event, if a defense stacks the box from the very first play, then according to you it's because of a failure to establish a vertical threat. If so, the answer is to keep running into the teeth of the stacked box on first down? You establish a vertical threat by actually throwing the ball vertically, not running on every first down.

[mannc]

 

In any event, if a defense stacks the box from the very first play, then according to you it's because of a failure to establish a vertical threat. If so, the answer is to keep running into the teeth of the stacked box on first down? You establish a vertical threat by actually throwing the ball vertically, not running on every first down.

I wasn't arguing that point. But if you think teams feel they need to establish the run in order to set up the pass, you are at least 25 years behind the times. It is a "pass first" league and has been for quite some time. The running game is mostly used to punish a defense that puts six DBs on the field in order to stop the pass, or just to salt away the clock at the end of a game. Edited November 28, 2013 by mannc

[K-9]

Pass to score, run to win.

 

Regardless of what type of league it is now, passing or otherwise, it will ALWAYS be a "take what the defense gives you" league. All defenses give you something and you have to take that BEFORE you can take what you want.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Simon]

But the Bills response to this is curious; they continue to constantly run on first down, into the teeth of a stacked box.

I've got the same sense so I looked up a few numbers.

 

For the 2013 season, the Bills are dead last in the NFL in throwing the ball on first down at 49.5% (nobody else is below 50%)

However, over the last 3 games that number has risen to 54.6%, placing them 23rd in the league over that stretch.

In the last game the Bills went hogwild and raised that number to 64.3%, putting them at 14th in the NFL.

 

The number appears to be trending upward; possibly because of increased confidence in a returning rookie QB, possibly because of matchups, possibly because of Hackett becoming more comfortable with his personnel and as an NFL co-ordinator. Whichever the case, I hope that trend continues.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I've got the same sense so I looked up a few numbers.

 

For the 2013 season, the Bills are dead last in the NFL in throwing the ball on first down at 49.5% (nobody else is below 50%)

However, over the last 3 games that number has risen to 54.6%, placing them 23rd in the league over that stretch.

In the last game the Bills went hogwild and raised that number to 64.3%, putting them at 14th in the NFL.

 

The number appears to be trending upward; possibly because of increased confidence in a returning rookie QB, possibly because of matchups, possibly because of Hackett becoming more comfortable with his personnel and as an NFL co-ordinator. Whichever the case, I hope that trend continues.

 

Another possible reason is that Marrone is exercising his prerogative as head coach and advising Hackett to mix things up more… or maybe Hackett has persuaded Marrone to mix things up more.

 

I have two thoughts on the subject:

 

1) The best play calling is when the defense is off balance and caught off guard.

 

2) That said, if a team is going to have a bias, I prefer a running bias. I think it's good for an offensive unit to have a certain mentality and I believe that most NFL teams abandon the run too quickly.

 

There's a fine balance but I don't mind when a team is a bit of obstinate in favor of the run game ESPECIALLY when developing a young QB and young receivers.

[vegas55]

I wasn't arguing that point. But if you think teams feel they need to establish the run in order to set up the pass, you are at least 25 years behind the times. It is a "pass first" league and has been for quite some time. The running game is mostly used to punish a defense that puts six DBs on the field in order to stop the pass, or just to salt away the clock at the end of a game.

Actually what I believe is you need to establish the passing game to set up the run. I believe it is now a passing league, and has been for some time. I agree with much of what you are saying, but it's clear, contrary to your statement, that at least some teams feel they need to establish the run to set up the pass. The Bills appear to be one of those teams.

[KD in CA]

Seems to me that the increasing deep ball and threats deep throughout games have proved you incorrect.

 

 

This has been the best adjustment in the coaching philosophy since September. The first few weeks they were terrified to let EJ throw the ball downfield (except for those stupid deep sideline patterns).

[San Jose Bills Fan]

This has been the best adjustment in the coaching philosophy since September. The first few weeks they were terrified to let EJ throw the ball downfield (except for those stupid deep sideline patterns).

 

Which is weird because they threw deep plenty in the preseason and training camp.

[K-9]

This has been the best adjustment in the coaching philosophy since September. The first few weeks they were terrified to let EJ throw the ball downfield (except for those stupid deep sideline patterns).

 

I don't know. I think EJ was terrified but not the coaches. Every QB we've seen has the green light in certain situations and both Tuel and Lewis have taken advantage at times. Nice to see EJ join the party.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[John from Riverside]

I jut get tired of watching Spiller running it up inside when there is no chance of him running out the OTHER side.......

 

If we hve WRs running open in the middle of the field......lets throw them open and loosen things up at the LOS