qblax16 Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Just did the simulation on ESPN, and looks like we need to win out. Jets and Ravens beat us in Tie Break Scenarios.... Not sure why the Jets beat us. I think the machine is messed up though, because doesn't head to head matchup matter more than best win percentage in common games? That is the reason I'm given for Ravens beating us at 8-8. FFFFFFFF
tennesseeboy Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 It ain't over til its over. Long shot, but long shots have carried the day before.
YoloinOhio Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 It ain't over til its over. Long shot, but long shots have carried the day before. Like the Redskins last year... didn't they start out 3-6 and win their final 7 with a rookie QB?
DocLawless Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 We beat the ravens so I don't understand how they would own the tiebreaker over us
Dorkington Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Just did the simulation on ESPN, and looks like we need to win out. Jets and Ravens beat us in Tie Break Scenarios.... Not sure why the Jets beat us. I think the machine is messed up though, because doesn't head to head matchup matter more than best win percentage in common games? That is the reason I'm given for Ravens beating us at 8-8. FFFFFFFF The Jets show as winning tiebreak against us due to Strength of Victory. On the "app", there's a "Tiebreakers" link next to the drop down for the autofill. Click that, and it'll tell you how it applied tiebreaks in both conferences.
qblax16 Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 The reason we don't get in is because the simulation I had had Titans at 8-8... All three teams have not played each other so it will come down to a in conference game winner % as tie break, and that goes to Raves at 8-8. What BS... That just doesn't seem fair, if you beat a team you're in over them, that would be the worst scenario in my mind!!
Reddy Freddy Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 The main problem I'm having is that I can't get the Bills to win a tiebreaker with the Jets. If that's the case, it wouldn't matter who else we were tied with since divisional ties are broken first. Looks like we'll probably have to win out to make it.
Koufax Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Fun to play with the playoff machine. If you put in power rankings, then change the Bills to win out and give the Jets a loss in week 17. I don't think it is going to happen, and actually care even more that the hopes last a few more weeks. The only game we need to not go the power rankings way is Bills over Dolphins at home (which I expect we will be favored for) in week 16 for us to carry our playoff hopes into the last game of the season. No matter how you look at it, some decent outcomes this week and things keep shaping up as we head into a winnable game off of our bye. Whether we make it or not, making that the focus of attention for the fact that we are winning games and still have hope is a HUGE thing for this team growing. To be able to do it in our first year of a new staff with rookie QB plus the QB injuries really says a lot about our future. The main problem I'm having is that I can't get the Bills to win a tiebreaker with the Jets. If that's the case, it wouldn't matter who else we were tied with since divisional ties are broken first. Looks like we'll probably have to win out to make it. Power rankings as criteria, Bills beat Dolphins, Bills beat Patriots, Jets lose to Dolphins in week 17 = Jets and Bills at 9-7 but we win the tie-breaker. Obviously Power Rankings aren't a perfect predictor especially when considering home team, but they give a pretty reasonable picture overall.
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 (edited) Fun to play with the playoff machine. If you put in power rankings, then change the Bills to win out and give the Jets a loss in week 17. Power rankings as criteria, Bills beat Dolphins, Bills beat Patriots, Jets lose to Dolphins in week 17 = Jets and Bills at 9-7 but we win the tie-breaker. Obviously Power Rankings aren't a perfect predictor especially when considering home team, but they give a pretty reasonable picture overall. Power Rankings are based on record and then favoritism by the "columnists" love the playoff machine I started with "home" teams then adjusted. when I got to Week 16 (factoring a loss at NE the next week) I have the Bills at 8-8 with the 6th seed and if they beat the Putz week 17 (who I got down to 9-7) the Bills will get to 9-7 and be the 4th seed and the Putrids the 6th seed! OMFG HOLY SHIP that means the Bills could be AFCE champs!!!!!!! where's my Prozac Edited November 20, 2013 by BillsFan-4-Ever
Koufax Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Power Rankings are based on record and then favoritism by the "columnists" Yes, I totally agree, but given that it is adjusted each week to reflect the current state of things, I thought it an effective starting point for a rough evaluation of things (given that win% produced too many ties). And given that doing it and flipping a single switch (Bills over Dolphins) got us to heading into the last day with a good shot. What is exciting is that there are still a variety of ways to make it if we win out, and we aren't sitting on any specific combination of unlikely outcomes. I happen to think it is really unlikely (especially the win in New England), but each week the chance survives (and probably in the next couple weeks strengthens) it is a positive thing for our football team.
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 (edited) Yes, I totally agree, but given that it is adjusted each week to reflect the current state of things, I thought it an effective starting point for a rough evaluation of things (given that win% produced too many ties). And given that doing it and flipping a single switch (Bills over Dolphins) got us to heading into the last day with a good shot. What is exciting is that there are still a variety of ways to make it if we win out, and we aren't sitting on any specific combination of unlikely outcomes. I happen to think it is really unlikely (especially the win in New England), but each week the chance survives (and probably in the next couple weeks strengthens) it is a positive thing for our football team. I agree if its based on WL records alone I disagree because I believe that these adjustments are still biased. ESPN is the worst. How does ESPN justify the Bills climbing only 1 spot and the Jets, in a humiliating loss, only drop 1 spot? the Fish should be above NY with both at 5-5 that win should have raised the Bills 2 or 3 spots. Ravens are 5 spots above Buffalo. EJ went 20 of 28 passes!!! how can they not be impressed? the thing with Buffalo is they have the last BYE week. next week if the these teams lose the Bilsl have to climb 5 or 6 spots w/o playing Steelers, Browns, Titans, Giants, Rams, and Chargers. I left the Ravens out because I want them to defeat the NYETS -------------- I usually rail on cnn si but they have it right Bills up 4 and Jets down 5 http://sportsillustr...d=si_topstories and yet CNNSI has the 4-6 NYGiants up 4 and above three 5-5 teams it makes no sense Edited November 20, 2013 by BillsFan-4-Ever
RevWarRifleman Posted November 20, 2013 Posted November 20, 2013 It ain't over til its over. Long shot, but long shots have carried the day before. That's right. Gonna pull a Levy-ism here & say, we were considered long shots in 1776. Go Bills!
dayman Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 (edited) http://espn.go.com/n...layoffs/machine Just messed around with it and quickly picked each game as I thought it would be and purposefully made the Bills go undefeated. We (predictably) made the playoffs. If I take away any one of the wins, we obviously do not. EDIT: Just messed with it more it is possible to make it at 8-8. Edited November 21, 2013 by SameOldBills
boyst Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 (edited) NE rests week 17, in this scenario if NE wins Pittsburgh is in to face the Bengals. We beat win out in my scenario and we are in... If Oakland beats Tennesee this week and San Diego in Week 16... beating Dallas next week, then NYJ they'll be 7-6. They're likely to lose to KC and beat Denver week 17 as Denver rests. That puts them at 9-7, and in over us even if we win out. The Jets, going backward face Miami week 17 @ Miami. I'd think Miami could muster up a win there, even without any implications. This week they play Balitmore - and they've got a little better since they played us. I have Baltimore. I think they'll sweep the fish with the first win Week 13. They'll beat Oakland. Week 15 they lose to KC, still trying to fight for 2nd place. Week 16 they should beat the Chargers. The Ravens are a long shot to get back to the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl. They host the Jets this week, then Pittsburgh, Minnesota, @Detroit, New England, and @Cinci. They have to win every game and can lose to NE. If we lose to NE, then Baltimore is in. Edited November 21, 2013 by jboyst62
Reddy Freddy Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Power rankings as criteria, Bills beat Dolphins, Bills beat Patriots, Jets lose to Dolphins in week 17 = Jets and Bills at 9-7 but we win the tie-breaker. Sorry, I should have clarified. I mean I can't get the Bills to win a tiebreaker with the Jets when both teams finish 8-8. I feel pretty good about the Bills' chances if they get to 9 wins, but was hoping to find a reasonable path for them to make it with 8 wins. That looks tough unless the Jets tank.
K D Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Chances are we go 8-8 but it would be funny to beat the Pats to get in and then have to play them again a week later in the wildcard. We are going to look back at the Cleveland game and KC and probably Cinci as games we should have won to get in. Oh well
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Sorry, I should have clarified. I mean I can't get the Bills to win a tiebreaker with the Jets when both teams finish 8-8. I feel pretty good about the Bills' chances if they get to 9 wins, but was hoping to find a reasonable path for them to make it with 8 wins. That looks tough unless the Jets tank. I liked my scenario where the Puts were the # 6 seed where they are on the road against the Chiefs or Bungles http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture if the playoffs started this week the Colts are #2 seed @ 7-3 and the Chiefs are 9-1 that sucks
LB3 Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 (edited) if the playoffs started this week the Colts are #2 seed @ 7-3 and the Chiefs are 9-1 that sucks I guess if you only look at the records alone that sucks. I'd argue that the Colts 7-3 is a lot more impressive than the Chiefs 9-1. Colts quality wins - Denver, Seattle, SF. Chiefs quality wins - Philly....Buffalo? Edited November 21, 2013 by KikoSeeBallKikoGetBall
ganesh Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 We beat the ravens so I don't understand how they would own the tiebreaker over us I believe when there are more than TWO teams with the same record, head-to-head doesn't count.What is counted first is either their conference record or record against common opponents....I think our AFC record is pathetic having lost to NE, NYJ, CLE, PIT, KC, CIN. The losses against CIN and KC (both at home) will hurt us very badly. Sadly they were winnable games and we had full control.
Recommended Posts