Official Playoff Possibilities Thread

[djp14150]

I was looking at the contenders for the last wildcard and spot and as crazy as it sounds, Buffalo definitely has a chance. First and foremost, we obviously have to win out. That's not an easy feat, but it's definitely possible. For the sake of argument, let's just say that they beat Atlanta, TB, and Jacksonville to get to 7-7.

 

As I said, I looked at each of the teams and the rest of their schedule and I think the Bills odds are better than slim. Maybe a small chance, ha. I went through week by week and kind of just gave each team a W/L based on what the likely scenario would be. It's pretty easy to see some teams that just are going to have a rough time based on schedule. Let's start with the bottom of the list for teams that can't afford anymore losses.

 

San Diego plays @KC, Cincy, Giants, @ Denver and KC. They are currently 4-6, they are out.

 

Cleveland is 4-6 and plays Pitt, @ NE, Chicago, @ Jets, @ Pitt. They are out.

 

Tennessee is 4-6. They play @ Indy, @ Denver, Arizona. They are out.

 

Oakland is 4-6. They play @ Dallas, @ Jets, KC, @ SD, Denver. They are out.

 

Miami is 5-5, but have a pretty tough road. They play Carolina, @ Jets, @ Pitt, NE, @ Buffalo, Jets. Can't rule them out, but I think they are done.

 

That leaves the Jets, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Buffalo.

 

Jets: 5-5, @ Baltimore, Miami, Oakland, @ Carolina, Cleveland, @ Miami.

Pittsburgh: 4-6, @ Cleveland, @ Baltimore, Miami, Cincy, @ GB, Cleveland

Baltimore: 4-6, Jets, Pittsburgh, Minnesotta, @ Detroit, New England, @ Cincy

Buffalo: 4-7, BYE, Atlanta, @ TB, @ Jax, Miami, @ NE

 

I think it's possible in this scenario where the Bills and the Jets are sitting at 8-7, tied for the last WC, going into week 17. They could have the same division and same conference record. Crazy, but possible. Maybe not likely, but possible

 

 

To add on what you said....

 

remember placement matters.....

 

Baltimore or Pittsburgh will be in 2nd place...

 

If its Baltimore then Buffalo has the tiebreaker because of a H2H win while Pittsburgh has the thie breaker with a H2H win

 

With the Jets...the split...then its divisional play. If Buffalo beat NE and MIa they are 4-2 in division play. If Jets lose one to Miami Buffalo wins that tiebreaker.

 

The next 4 weeks are key.

 

Buffalo doesnt play other teams they are competing with while all the other teams do---thus they will kill each other off.

 

 

For buffalo to win out and get to 2nd place.....

 

1. they need to win out (duh)

2. They need the fins to beat the Jets once

3. they need the fins to lose an additional game

4. They need the Jets to lose an additional game.

 

for Buffalo to play for the division title against New England in addition to above they need:

 

1. Miami to beat NE in week 15

2. They need NE to lose 2 of their other 4 games (DEN, @ hou, CLE, @BAL) ---DEN and @ BAL are likely.

 

I see Pittsburgh losing to BAL and either CIN or GB

With BAL...@ DET and @ CIN (CIN likely would have a bye to play for)---with BAL ----BUF only needs them to lose one game because they have H2H tie breaker on them.

 

 

Buffalo has by 4 the easiest 4 game stretch coming up in the league. If they can get back to 7-7 then anything can happen.

 

I feel they likely are in the drivers seat of control their own fate.

Edited November 19, 2013 by djp14150

[johnwalter]

weeks after a loss: discuss the bills 2014 draft

weeks after a win: discuss the scenarios that would put the bills in the playoffs

[DC Tom]

At the risk of jumping the proverbial gun, perhaps this thread may be pinned until either the Bills clinch a spot or are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention?

 

Following week 11 action (one game pending) the Bills (4-7) sit at 14th in the AFC, yet are only 1.5 games behind the final Wild Card leaders at 5-5 (NYJ, MIA).

 

Teams #8-13 (OAK, TEN, PIT, BAL, SD, CLE) have identical 4-6 records.

 

Next week there are some big games that will shake things up a bit, while the Bills sit home and get healthy:

 

SD @ KC (Go Chefs)

CAR @ MIA (Go Panthers)

PIT @ CLE (Bills lost to both, but I think we root for the Browns here)

NYJ @ BAL (Go Ravens)

TEN @ OAK (Raiders have the better conference record, so go Titans)

 

Bottom line -- if the Jets and Fish both lose next week, no matter what else happens Buffalo is one stinking game out of a playoff spot with five to go.

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/160220-the-bills-first-preseason-game-left-me-with-one-word-wow/?do=findComment&comment=2866984

 

It's November.

[Dibs]

Looking at the remaining schedule the Bills WILL make the playoffs at 8-8 if they beat NE in NE when NE has nothing to play for (similar to Pit while back).

 

Jets: 8-8 split w/Miami. We win Tie Break with 4-2 division record vs Jets 3-3 division record.

Ravens: 8-8. We win tie break from head to head.

Dolphins: 7-9

Oak: 5-11

Ten: 7-9

Pit: 7-9

Cle: 5-11

SD: 6-10

 

So may not need to win out... just need to beat the pats and Jets split w/Miami. I'm a typical optimist.

 

Though I agree that there is a chance for us even if we don't win out......you have made an assumption that Pit go 3-3 over the last 6. If they go 4-2(quite possible) they would also be 8-8 and knock us out via head to head.

 

Edit: I think the Pit@Balt game in 2 weeks will have great significance to the playoff picture.

Edited November 19, 2013 by Dibs

[MDH]

Bottom line is that 8-8 will not cut it.

 

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if 8-8 did cut it this year. You have a bunch 5-5 and 4-6 teams competing for the spot and all of them suffer from mediocre play.

 

The problem is that 8-8 won't cut it for the Bills because of tiebreakers.

[johnwalter]

is there a "playoff machine" for the 2013 - 2014 season available anywhere?

[eball]

The Panthers are for real. Nice to know they're playing both the Jets and Fish.

[qblax16]

Though I agree that there is a chance for us even if we don't win out......you have made an assumption that Pit go 3-3 over the last 6. If they go 4-2(quite possible) they would also be 8-8 and knock us out via head to head.

 

Edit: I think the Pit@Balt game in 2 weeks will have great significance to the playoff picture.

 

I think Pit going 3-3 the rest of the way is likely. @GB w/healthy Rodgers. Cincy = another loss. Then just have to hope for a split with Cleveland or loss in Baltimore.

 

GB takes them. Cleveland split, and loss to Baltimore or Cincy is what I think knocks them out of contention.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

frankly, we are overcomplicating this. We need the jets and fins to implode, which is fairly likely to happen.

[K D]

I bet we go 8-8 and lose out on a tie breaker. Oh well, you have to figure next year we will be wild card favorites and possibly contend for the AFC East. It would be nice to get the playoff monkey off our back but what we really want is a division championship and maybe in 2 yrs the Super Bowl

[qblax16]

I bet we go 8-8 and lose out on a tie breaker. Oh well, you have to figure next year we will be wild card favorites and possibly contend for the AFC East. It would be nice to get the playoff monkey off our back but what we really want is a division championship and maybe in 2 yrs the Super Bowl

 

Like this idea most... really want the playoff monkey off our back first, then work to keeping the Def together another couple years to really be a contender.

[YoloinOhio]

I think Pit going 3-3 the rest of the way is likely. @GB w/healthy Rodgers. Cincy = another loss. Then just have to hope for a split with Cleveland or loss in Baltimore.

 

GB takes them. Cleveland split, and loss to Baltimore or Cincy is what I think knocks them out of contention.

The Browns suck and we do not need to worry about them. I am more worried about Pitt.

[NoSaint]

Carolina win tonight just improved our strength of victory tiebreak!

 

We have to beat the pats later anyway so we will have to have a win against each team for that discussion to take place. IE no real effect last night. The only real debate was are we more likely to catch the pats, or see them possibly rest starters later.

[taglientep]

weeks after a loss: discuss the bills 2014 draft

weeks after a win: discuss the scenarios that would put the bills in the playoffs

 

YUP!!!!! exactly what is on every fans mind

[Flip Johnson]

frankly, we are overcomplicating this. We need the jets and fins to implode, which is fairly likely to happen.

 

Very likely in my opinion.

 

If you look at the mix of Buffalo, Miami, NYJ, Pitt, Baltimore, Cleveland, SD, and Oakland, I would say the two strongest teams are the Bills and Steelers. Pittsburgh is a tough, veteran team that got off to a slow start but has won 4 of 6. They are more than capable of a strong finish. The Bills were snakebitten by QB injuries and would otherwise have at least six wins. I give a little respect to Baltimore but this looks like a classic post Super Bowl letdown year. Those other teams are not doing anything to indicate a pending run.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

We have to beat the pats later anyway so we will have to have a win against each team for that discussion to take place. IE no real effect last night. The only real debate was are we more likely to catch the pats, or see them possibly rest starters later.

 

I am thinking more in terms of tie-breaks with the Jets. If we beat the Pats, then it's a wash, because the Jets split with the Pats too. Unless the jets drop a division game to Miami--which could happen but seems pretty doubful--my sense is that the tie-break with the Jets will come down to strength of victory (assuming they lose to Carolina and Baltimore, which I think they almost have to do, for us to have a chance).

 

(It's fun talking about these highly unliklely scenarios!!)

[atlbillsfan1975]

Just win.

On one hand, I would be upset if the Bills finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs. On the other hand if the Bills win out and look great doing so(including EJ proving he is the guy) then i would be very happy.

 

Playoff scenarios are great and i am not peeing on any cheerios.

personally i bet NE runs Denver out of NE this week. Not sure why but i think NE beats Denver big. Anyone else notice as the weather gets colder Manning looks more and more just good(ha)?

[eball]

Here's a crazy thought...the Pats* lose to Denver next week (their 4th L). The next four games are @HOU, CLE, @MIA, @BAL. Dare we even dream they could lose two of those, and IF the Bills take care of business we are playing for the AFC East in the last game of the season?

[BuffaloBaumer]

All I care about is that our chances have increased to make something happen when Miami comes to town. 8 inches of snow falls on the night of the 21st as flurries continue throughout the tailgate. Christmas comes early folks and that stadium is gonna be a rockin'! You all can picture this and it IS going to happen.

[A Dog Named Kelso]

4) If we get to the New England game with a realistic shot of making the playoffs in the final week, I don't care what anyone says, I'm counting that as a playoff game and declaring the end of the playoff drought.

 

They are playing one and done games from now until the end of the season. That will create a very scary team if they make the playoffs. This is why the Giants do so well in the post season when they come on strong at the end of the year