reddogblitz Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 I excluded the games where the jets and bills played each other. That gets you from 14 to 12. good point
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 (edited) I don't agree. Here's why: I agree that if the Bills win out, they will finish at 9-7 overall, and 7-5 in common games. I agree that the Jets are currently 4-3 in common games, so if the Jets lose any two of their remaining 5 five games against common opponents, they will also finish 7-5 in common games. But that doesn't contradict my analysis above. If we win out, and the Jets lose 2 of their remaining 5 games against common opponents, there cannot be a tie in overall records if the Jets also lose to Raiders. That would give the Jets a total of three more losses in their remaining games, so they would finish at 8-8, a game behind the Bills, who finish 9-7 if they win out. There would be no tie that needed to be broken. The Jets remaining schedule contains 5 common opponents and one game against the Raiders. Nothing else. So if we win out, AND the Jets lose to the Raiders, then it's impossible for the Jets to finish in a 9-7 tie with us if they also lose two of their other remaining games. If the Jets lose to the Raiders and lose only one of their other 5 remaining games, the Jets could finish in a 9-7 tie with us. But then they would be 8-4 in common games, while we would be 7-5 in common games. There's just no way around the fact that after splitting head-to-head with the Jets, there are only two kinds of games on the schedule. If we have a better record in the 2 non-common games than the Jets, the ONLY way we can wind up with the same overall record as the Jets is if the Jets have a better record in their other games (all of which are against common opponents). If we beat JAX and the Jets lose to the Raiders, there is no scenario in which the Bills and Jets can end the season with the same overall record without the Jets having a better record against common opponents. If you disagree you are welcome to try to give me one concrete example to the contrary (i.e., any combination of future results that includes (1) we beat JAX (2) Raiders beat Jets (3) Jets and Bills end season in a two-way tie with the same overall record, and (4) common opponents tie-break is reached and Bills survive it. The math says it can't be done. Note that common opponents tie-break is not reached if Jets and Bills have different AFC East division records. Edited November 22, 2013 by ICanSleepWhenI'mDead
Dibs Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 .... If we beat JAX and the Jets lose to the Raiders, there is no scenario in which the Bills and Jets can end the season with the same overall record without the Jets having a better record against common opponents. .... You are correct on this. The common opponent win-loss atm is Bills 3-5, Jets 4-3. If the Bills win out & end up with the same W/L record as the Jets, that means the Jets will have to have 2 losses over their last 6 games(bringing their overall losses to 7). If one of those losses is against a non-common opponent(Raiders) it means that they will only accrue 1 common opponent loss. This would bring the final common opponent records to: Bills 7-5, Jets 8-4. IMO however, this scenario is one of the least likely to occur. Not only would the Bills have to win out......but the Jets would have to win 4 of 6. They would need both wins against Miami(to equal up the divisional record).....and would need to have one of their 2 losses against a relatively weak team(Raiders) while playing at home. This week's game will be quite informative for this scenario. If the Jets lose at the Ravens they will need to beat the Panthers at Carolina in week 15 to maintain the scenario(assuming of course that the Bills win out).
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 I don't agree. Here's why: I agree that if the Bills win out, they will finish at 9-7 overall, and 7-5 in common games. I agree that the Jets are currently 4-3 in common games, so if the Jets lose any two of their remaining 5 five games against common opponents, they will also finish 7-5 in common games. But that doesn't contradict my analysis above. If we win out, and the Jets lose 2 of their remaining 5 games against common opponents, there cannot be a tie in overall records if the Jets also lose to Raiders. That would give the Jets a total of three more losses in their remaining games, so they would finish at 8-8, a game behind the Bills, who finish 9-7 if they win out. There would be no tie that needed to be broken. The Jets remaining schedule contains 5 common opponents and one game against the Raiders. Nothing else. So if we win out, AND the Jets lose to the Raiders, then it's impossible for the Jets to finish in a 9-7 tie with us if they also lose two of their other remaining games. If the Jets lose to the Raiders and lose only one of their other 5 remaining games, the Jets could finish in a 9-7 tie with us. But then they would be 8-4 in common games, while we would be 7-5 in common games. There's just no way around the fact that after splitting head-to-head with the Jets, there are only two kinds of games on the schedule. If we have a better record in the 2 non-common games than the Jets, the ONLY way we can wind up with the same overall record as the Jets is if the Jets have a better record in their other games (all of which are against common opponents). If we beat JAX and the Jets lose to the Raiders, there is no scenario in which the Bills and Jets can end the season with the same overall record without the Jets having a better record against common opponents. If you disagree you are welcome to try to give me one concrete example to the contrary (i.e., any combination of future results that includes (1) we beat JAX (2) Raiders beat Jets (3) Jets and Bills end season in a two-way tie with the same overall record, and (4) common opponents tie-break is reached and Bills survive it. The math says it can't be done. Note that common opponents tie-break is not reached if Jets and Bills have different AFC East division records. I think we agree, but you are unnecessarily complicating this. It's as simple as saying that the jets need to lose 2 more common games. Not sure why you need to reverse engineer this. More simply, we need the jets to lose to 2 teams, but one of those can't be the raiders.
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 sorry if already posted http://nfl.si.com/2013/11/21/nfl-playoff-picture-week-12/ 5. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1): Wild card 6. New York Jets (5-5): Wild card In the Hunt: Miami Dolphins (5-5), Oakland Raiders (4-6), Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6), Baltimore Ravens (4-6), Tennessee Titans (4-6), Cleveland Browns (4-6) Danger Zone: San Diego Chargers (4-6), Buffalo Bills (4-7) The Chiefs have the Chargers at Arrowhead, which should effectively take San Diego out of this discussion. As for the Bills … putting a 4-7 team in this mix? Let’s just say we have a feeling. The Jets look slippery downhill, the Dolphins are going to implode at some point, and EJ Manuel appears to be finding a groove.
boyst Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 Miami doesn't belong there. They're stock is crashing. Looking at the top AFC teams - Denver, KC, and NE - they are beatable by a team like us. If we score, if we can can win. We have a defense capable of stopping NE, we have the DB's to keep Manning from breaking us, and we have played the Chiefs. They would all likely beat us in the playoffs but those 3 teams are not heads and heels above us like they are over NYJ and Pittsburgh. We line up pretty good against top lineups.
Chilly Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 We probably want the patriots to win out and lock up a bye week by week 17 so Belichick will have reason to play backups.
boyst Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 We probably want the patriots to win out and lock up a bye week by week 17 so Belichick will have reason to play backups. Looking at the Chiefs schedule it is easy to imagine them only losing one more game. It's harder to imagine them losing 3 more. If they lose only two games they'll be tied with the Pats. 13-3. The common opponent of Denver, among others. Can you find two Kansas City losses here? Chargers Broncos @Native American racist slander word @Raiders Colts @Chargers They may be able to muster a win against the Broncos at home. The Colts at home in Dec - where they'll feel cold air - should not be easy but they should be able to win with turnovers.
GunnerBill Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 But either Kansas or Denver won't be the division winner so de facto will be looking at a best possible scenario of being 5th seed?
section122 Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 Looking at the Chiefs schedule it is easy to imagine them only losing one more game. It's harder to imagine them losing 3 more. If they lose only two games they'll be tied with the Pats. 13-3. The common opponent of Denver, among others. Can you find two Kansas City losses here? Chargers Broncos @Native American racist slander word @Raiders Colts @Chargers They may be able to muster a win against the Broncos at home. The Colts at home in Dec - where they'll feel cold air - should not be easy but they should be able to win with turnovers. I'd say Broncos, Tim Grahams, and Colts are all games that they could lose. Hell with how unimpressive there offense is I could see them losing any of these games.
YoloinOhio Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 Looking at the Chiefs schedule it is easy to imagine them only losing one more game. It's harder to imagine them losing 3 more. If they lose only two games they'll be tied with the Pats. 13-3. The common opponent of Denver, among others. Can you find two Kansas City losses here? Chargers Broncos @Native American racist slander word @Raiders Colts @Chargers They may be able to muster a win against the Broncos at home. The Colts at home in Dec - where they'll feel cold air - should not be easy but they should be able to win with turnovers.
Thunderstealer Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 All I know is that we're going into December and we're not mathematically eliminated yet. That's progress, right? All i want for Christmas is 8-7 going into New England. Damn that loss to KC bugs me.
plenzmd1 Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 Looking at the Chiefs schedule it is easy to imagine them only losing one more game. It's harder to imagine them losing 3 more. If they lose only two games they'll be tied with the Pats. 13-3. The common opponent of Denver, among others. Can you find two Kansas City losses here? Chargers Broncos @Native American racist slander word @Raiders Colts @Chargers They may be able to muster a win against the Broncos at home. The Colts at home in Dec - where they'll feel cold air - should not be easy but they should be able to win with turnovers. I am hard pressed to find two Chiefs wins in there...I think they stink.
djp14150 Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 I don't think I agree with this. Re common games tie-break, the Jets and Bills play 12 games against common opponents. If the Bills win out, they will be 7-5 in common games. The Jets are currently 4-3 in common games, meaning we need to see them lose two more games against common oppoenents. If they lose @ Car and @ Balt-- very likely, in my view--that we are both 7-5 in common games. Then we are on to the next tie-breaker. Agree? common games is the flip of non common games..... Bills played KC (L) and @ JAX Jets its @ TEN (L) and later OAK both going 1-1 or 0-2 means the common game record is the same. Between Bills and Jets... H2H---split Divisional play....BUF has MIa 2 NE, JETS have H &H with MIA BUF wins out they are 4-2, JEts split they are 3-3...tiebreaker to BUF. That is why BUF need the Jets to lose to MIa once. \ After that they need one more additional lose by the Jets and then BUF wins out they will pass the Jets in the standings. But either Kansas or Denver won't be the division winner so de facto will be looking at a best possible scenario of being 5th seed? barring a major colapse by either club they should be safe as one winning the division and the other as seed #5. If KC beats SD--- SD cant pass KC in the standings. The magic number for eliminating OAK from passing them is 1 (either another KC win or OAK loss ---which could happen on sunday). I think there is a scenario where KC and DEN clinch WC spots with a win and a bunch of teams losing/tying. Looking at the Chiefs schedule it is easy to imagine them only losing one more game. It's harder to imagine them losing 3 more. If they lose only two games they'll be tied with the Pats. 13-3. The common opponent of Denver, among others. remember---they need to win the division first. Their rematch against DEN is important. DEN wins that means a sweep and DEN having the first tiebreaker on KC. I honestly dont see the Pats at 13-3. I see them losing to DEN, losing @ MIA, and @ BAL thus potentially creating a BUF-NE division title game in week 17.
boyst Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 I am hard pressed to find two Chiefs wins in there...I think they stink. good teams win, and the Chiefs have done just that. Maybe they're not top level or even great, but them missing the playoffs at this point I can't imagine it. God, could you imagine how ****ty that'd be for them? If they only win one more game and miss at 9-7?
iinii Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 We probably want the patriots to win out and lock up a bye week by week 17 so Belichick will have reason to play backups. That strategy hasn't done us much good
Beerball Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 http://isportsweb.com/2013/11/22/buffalo-bills-playoffs/
boyst Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 http://isportsweb.co...bills-playoffs/ about the author... About Sean Rogers Sean is a Communications major and a Journalism minor at Western Michigan University. He is a Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Lakers, and Michigan Wolverines fan. Follow me on Twitter @sean_rogers3324. ...but dang, I am starting to get my hopes up!
bisonbrigade Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) This will be a magical year, when we win the last 5 games in a row, yes win, the Bills will be 9-7. They would have beaten the hated Patriots to clinch the 1st playoff appearance in forever. I "BILLLEIVE!". Magic happens when you least expect it. Edited November 22, 2013 by bisonbrigade
MikeSpeed Posted November 22, 2013 Posted November 22, 2013 I was checking out the spread for this weekend games I belive it would b good for us if all the favorites win. Can someone please confirm?
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