FluffHead Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 I keep seeing people saying we will beat NE since they will be resting....newsflash....they always have the playoffs locked up and NEVER rest people....why would that change now?
LB3 Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 I keep seeing people saying we will beat NE since they will be resting....newsflash....they always have the playoffs locked up and NEVER rest people....why would that change now? Good point. We'll beat them either way.
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 The main problem I'm having is that I can't get the Bills to win a tiebreaker with the Jets. If that's the case, it wouldn't matter who else we were tied with since divisional ties are broken first. Looks like we'll probably have to win out to make it. If we wind up in a two way divisional tie for 2nd place with the Jets, the tie-breaking hierarchy is: 1. head-to-head 2. AFC East divisional record 3. common games We already split head to head with the Jets, so in any tiebreak scenario where we wind up with the same divisional record as the Jets, we will reach the third tiebreaker, which is games against common opponents. But if you think about it, our record against non-common opponents determines whether our record against common opponents is better than the Jets, the same as the Jets or worse than the Jets (because the analysis starts with the assumption that our overall record for all 16 games is the same as the Jets - - that's the whole reason why tiebreakers come into play). So look at the non-common opponents for us and the Jets - - there are only 2 - -they are: Jets: lost to TN, still have to play Raiders on 12/8 Bills: lost to KC, still have to play JAX on 12/15 If the Jets beat the Raiders and we lose to JAX, the Jets will be 1-1 against non-common opponents, while the Bills will be 0-2 against non-common opponents. In that scenario, the Bills will have a better record against common opponents than the Jets. That's not my opinion, that's just math (because we are assuming that Bills and Jets end the season with the same overall record). Stated differently, if (1) the Jets have a better record against non-common opponents than the Bills, but (2) the Bills and Jets have the same overall 16 game record, then by definition (3) the Bills WILL have a better record against common opponents than the Jets. If the playoff calculator doesn't show the Bills wining a two-way tiebreaker with the Jets where (1) both teams have the same AFC East division record, (2) Jets beat Raiders, and (3) Bills lose to JAX, then the playoff calculator is programmed wrong. It may not be intuitive, but if we beat JAX and the Jets lose to the Raiders, then the only way we can possibly win a two way tie with the Jets is to have a better AFC East record.
GunnerBill Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 If we lost to Jacksonville we won't be in a tie with the Jets for a wild card spot.
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 If we lost to Jacksonville we won't be in a tie with the Jets for a wild card spot. If we beat JAX, it's mathematically impossible for us to win the common games tie-breaker with the Jets. Best we could hope for is that Jets beat the Raiders. In that scenario, Bills and Jets would have identical records against common opponents, and the fourth tie-breaker would be used (assuming that both teams also had the same AFC East record so that second tie-breaker doesn't determine the outcome).
GunnerBill Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 I understand that - what I'm saying is if we are losing to the Jaguars I don't think we are gettign to 8-8 anyway and therefore the fact that we would have the tiebreak would be irrelevant because we wouldn't be in the tiebreak.... if that makes sense.
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Yeah it does - - the analysis is kind of like the one for NFC opponents if we wind up in a two way tie with a team from some other AFC division. In that scenario, if we didn't play the other AFC team head-to-head, conference games are the next tie-breaker, so we are better off if our losses are in NFC games rather than in AFC games. Similarly, in a two way tie with a division rival, we are better off if our losses are in non-common games as opposed to common games. Let's hope the Jets crater and no tie-break is required.
plenzmd1 Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 (edited) Just to be clear, i was the one who posted last week..."damn we beat the Jets only a game out". That being said, this thread(in which i have posted several times) reminded me of this piece from Deadspin "why your team Sucks" Every year, the Bills win one game early, and that one win—even if it's against a ****ty opponent—is enough to turn every dumb!@#$ Bills fan into Ron Jaworski. I TELL YOU WHAT I REALLY LIKE THE BUFFALO BILLS I THINK THEY HAVE A CHANCE TO BE AN OUTSTANDING TEAM IN THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. It takes virtually nothing to sucker these people in. They are the lab rat that keeps getting shocked by the electrified cheese. So we have a better record that two teams, but have a ten page thread on playoff scenarios and tiebreakers...om a bye week. Lordy, these have been a long 13 years! Okay, be great if someone open a thread for each Sunday with a "who we are rooting for" ..that would be great for people like me who dont understand all the tiebreaks etc. Edited November 21, 2013 by plenzmd1
Dorkington Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 If we had better teams lined up in front of us, I'd be taking a major dump on the idea of us making the playoffs. But as it is, we have 4 games in front of us that we really *should* win, and then a beatable NE team if we play an all around good game. It's definitely improbable that we'll win out, but we couldn't ask for a better setup to do so.
mannc Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 I keep seeing people saying we will beat NE since they will be resting....newsflash....they always have the playoffs locked up and NEVER rest people....why would that change now? As far as I am concerned, if the Bills make it to the last game needing to beat NE to get in, that's almost as good as making the playoffs. And they will probably be favored in their next four games. The two road games are against Florida teams competing for nothing other than the first pick in the draft, featuring arguably the two worst starting QBs in the league. Atlanta is in full tank mode and we will be coming off a bye. Miami is the toughest of the 4, but they are in disarray and Tannehill scares no one. And it is at the Ralph in December. We should be favored by a TD or more. I think there is a pretty good chance it all comes down to NE. Given remaining schedule, that will probably be a big game for NE, too. Key is for EJ to stay healthy and not revert to Steeler game form.
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 (edited) Just for grins I took a look at the Dolphins record in non-common games, and found some good news. The Dolphins have already beaten both the Colts and the Chargers, so they are 2-0 in non-common games. But the Bills have already lost the only non-common game they have played so far (to KC). So if we wind up in a two way tie with the same overall record as the Phish, the ONLY way we can lose that tie-break is if the Phish wind up with a better AFC East division record than us (so far they are 0-2 against the AFC East), because: 1. We can do no worse than a split with Miami head-to-head; and 2. We are already GUARANTEED to win any two-way common games tie-breaker with the Phish if we reach the third tie-breaker (because we already know that no matter what we do against the Jags, our record in non-common games will be worse than 2-0). Edited November 21, 2013 by ICanSleepWhenI'mDead
Reddy Freddy Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 If we beat JAX, it's mathematically impossible for us to win the common games tie-breaker with the Jets. Best we could hope for is that Jets beat the Raiders. In that scenario, Bills and Jets would have identical records against common opponents, and the fourth tie-breaker would be used (assuming that both teams also had the same AFC East record so that second tie-breaker doesn't determine the outcome). The scenario you outlined (Bills beating Jax and Jets beating Oak) is by far the most likely scenario in my opinion. For that reason, I don't think any tiebreaker would come down to record vs. common opponents. I played with the playoff machine a little more, and we can in fact win a tiebreaker with the Jets when both teams finish 8-8. The key is that the Bills' one loss has to come vs an NFC team. For instance, I used the power ranking criteria, then gave the Bills wins vs. everyone except Atlanta and the Jets wins vs everyone except Balt, Carolina, and Miami. Both teams finish 8-8, Bills win tiebreaker. So call me crazy, but if we lose to Atlanta or TB (our 2 toughest games remaining except NE in my opinion), I'm still not sticking a fork in us.
GunnerBill Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 The one thing that hasn't been said is if we get to New England and it's us or the Jets and we know a win gets us in and the winner would play 3rd seeded New England the next week (not impossible) then would there be a part of the Pats that would prefer to face Buffalo? Remembering Rex Ryan defences have got them in the play offs before?
bisonbrigade Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 As someone mentioned, if we win out we will make the playoffs. The teams in front of us for that last spot just aren't good football teams. 9-7 and maybe even 8-8 will get the spot. Unfortunately I don't see it happening. It's extremely tough to win on the road with a young team and rookie QB no matter how bad the opponent is. I see a 7-9 finish with us losing to the Bucs and Patriots. Winning is contagious and when they beat Atlanta that will betwo strait and if they beat Tampa the next week, nothing will stop the Bills!
mannc Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 (edited) As someone mentioned, if we win out we will make the playoffs. The teams in front of us for that last spot just aren't good football teams. 9-7 and maybe even 8-8 will get the spot. Unfortunately I don't see it happening. It's extremely tough to win on the road with a young team and rookie QB no matter how bad the opponent is. I see a 7-9 finish with us losing to the Bucs and Patriots. Winning in Tampa in December in front of 35,000 fans, 10,000 of whom are cheering for Buffalo, against Mike Glennon, should not be "extremely tough". Even under the best circumstances, Florida teams historically have very little home field advantage in late season games. The weather is not as hot, and the northern teams enjoy going down there to play in the winter. September games are a different story. Edited November 21, 2013 by mannc
FluffHead Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Just for grins I took a look at the Dolphins record in non-common games, and found some good news. The Dolphins have already beaten both the Colts and the Chargers, so they are 2-0 in non-common games. But the Bills have already lost the only non-common game they have played so far (to KC). So if we wind up in a two way tie with the same overall record as the Phish, the ONLY way we can lose that tie-break is if the Phish wind up with a better AFC East division record than us (so far they are 0-2 against the AFC East), because: 1. We can do no worse than a split with Miami head-to-head; and 2. We are already GUARANTEED to win any two-way common games tie-breaker with the Phish if we reach the third tie-breaker (because we already know that no matter what we do against the Jags, our record in non-common games will be worse than 2-0). Leave Trey Anastasio and the boys out of this!
ganesh Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Winning is contagious and when they beat Atlanta that will betwo strait and if they beat Tampa the next week, nothing will stop the Bills! It would remind me of the three-peat that Losman put on in the 3rd quarter of the season only to falter against the Titans and Travis Henry.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 If we wind up in a two way divisional tie for 2nd place with the Jets, the tie-breaking hierarchy is: 1. head-to-head 2. AFC East divisional record 3. common games We already split head to head with the Jets, so in any tiebreak scenario where we wind up with the same divisional record as the Jets, we will reach the third tiebreaker, which is games against common opponents. But if you think about it, our record against non-common opponents determines whether our record against common opponents is better than the Jets, the same as the Jets or worse than the Jets (because the analysis starts with the assumption that our overall record for all 16 games is the same as the Jets - - that's the whole reason why tiebreakers come into play). So look at the non-common opponents for us and the Jets - - there are only 2 - -they are: Jets: lost to TN, still have to play Raiders on 12/8 Bills: lost to KC, still have to play JAX on 12/15 If the Jets beat the Raiders and we lose to JAX, the Jets will be 1-1 against non-common opponents, while the Bills will be 0-2 against non-common opponents. In that scenario, the Bills will have a better record against common opponents than the Jets. That's not my opinion, that's just math (because we are assuming that Bills and Jets end the season with the same overall record). Stated differently, if (1) the Jets have a better record against non-common opponents than the Bills, but (2) the Bills and Jets have the same overall 16 game record, then by definition (3) the Bills WILL have a better record against common opponents than the Jets. If the playoff calculator doesn't show the Bills wining a two-way tiebreaker with the Jets where (1) both teams have the same AFC East division record, (2) Jets beat Raiders, and (3) Bills lose to JAX, then the playoff calculator is programmed wrong. It may not be intuitive, but if we beat JAX and the Jets lose to the Raiders, then the only way we can possibly win a two way tie with the Jets is to have a better AFC East record. I don't think I agree with this. Re common games tie-break, the Jets and Bills play 12 games against common opponents. If the Bills win out, they will be 7-5 in common games. The Jets are currently 4-3 in common games, meaning we need to see them lose two more games against common oppoenents. If they lose @ Car and @ Balt-- very likely, in my view--that we are both 7-5 in common games. Then we are on to the next tie-breaker. Agree?
reddogblitz Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Re common games tie-break, the Jets and Bills play 12 games against common opponents. Actually, I'm pretty sure it's 14.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted November 21, 2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Actually, I'm pretty sure it's 14. I excluded the games where the jets and bills played each other. That gets you from 14 to 12.
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