dubs Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 I was looking at the contenders for the last wildcard and spot and as crazy as it sounds, Buffalo definitely has a chance. First and foremost, we obviously have to win out. That's not an easy feat, but it's definitely possible. For the sake of argument, let's just say that they beat Atlanta, TB, and Jacksonville to get to 7-7. As I said, I looked at each of the teams and the rest of their schedule and I think the Bills odds are better than slim. Maybe a small chance, ha. I went through week by week and kind of just gave each team a W/L based on what the likely scenario would be. It's pretty easy to see some teams that just are going to have a rough time based on schedule. Let's start with the bottom of the list for teams that can't afford anymore losses. San Diego plays @KC, Cincy, Giants, @ Denver and KC. They are currently 4-6, they are out. Cleveland is 4-6 and plays Pitt, @ NE, Chicago, @ Jets, @ Pitt. They are out. Tennessee is 4-6. They play @ Indy, @ Denver, Arizona. They are out. Oakland is 4-6. They play @ Dallas, @ Jets, KC, @ SD, Denver. They are out. Miami is 5-5, but have a pretty tough road. They play Carolina, @ Jets, @ Pitt, NE, @ Buffalo, Jets. Can't rule them out, but I think they are done. That leaves the Jets, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Jets: 5-5, @ Baltimore, Miami, Oakland, @ Carolina, Cleveland, @ Miami. Pittsburgh: 4-6, @ Cleveland, @ Baltimore, Miami, Cincy, @ GB, Cleveland Baltimore: 4-6, Jets, Pittsburgh, Minnesotta, @ Detroit, New England, @ Cincy Buffalo: 4-7, BYE, Atlanta, @ TB, @ Jax, Miami, @ NE I think it's possible in this scenario where the Bills and the Jets are sitting at 8-7, tied for the last WC, going into week 17. They could have the same division and same conference record. Crazy, but possible. Maybe not likely, but possible
YoloinOhio Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 Lots of football left, #BillsMafia! This snapshot is courtesy of http://NFL.com 's front page... Go #Bills pic.twitter.com/3X436o3wnv
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 (edited) I just edited my original post re the tie-breaker with the Jets. I will re-post that part below: Edit: The tie-break with the jets will first be best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, then would be conference record, and then would be strength of victory (i.e., the combined won-lost-tied percentage of all the teams that a club has defeated). For common games, we would be tied with the Jets at 7-5. We would then be tied at conference record at 6-6. I think we might end up losing the last tie-break, because we lost to the Saints and the Jets beat them. I think we would need to have Carolina and Baltimore finish strong, and the Saints and Browns fade to have a shot at this third tie-break. Bottom line is that we really need to root hard for Carolina and Baltimore, and root against the Saints and Browns. Edit: Guys, I may have misunderstood the strength of victory tie-break. I thought it was "common" strength of victory. I think the effect is the same-- we need the Panthers and Ravens to finish strong, and the Saints and Browns to tank. The Panthers and Saints play each other twice, so it will probably all come down to those games. Edited November 18, 2013 by JR in Pittsburgh
YoloinOhio Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 Edit: Guys, I may have misunderstood the strength of victory tie-break. I thought it was "common" strength of victory. I think the effect is the same-- we need the Panthers and Ravens to finish strong, and the Saints and Browns to tank. The Panthers and Saints play each other twice, so it will probably all come down to those games. This feels like the BCS!
Cash Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 At the risk of jumping the proverbial gun... Might as well do it now. One more loss probably eliminates us mathematically, or at least comes very close. It seems unlikely that we would win the tiebreakers even if we won out, but obviously that scenario is still in play. Might as well hope for the best as long as it's a possibility. For the record, I won't be disappointed in the slightest if we don't make the playoffs; never expected it and don't think it's reasonable to ask, particularly in light of the QB injuries. But I do want us to stay "in the hunt" as long as possible, and need to see us win several more games. At least 2 out of the Tampa/Jax/ATL murderer's row, and take care of business at home against Miami. Do that and we legitimately look like a decent young team on the rise, who can go as far as our QB's development takes us.
Since 1972 Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 Not to be a downer but the Bills will probably do what they always do. They will lose enough games to miss the playoffs but win enough for us to miss out on having a top pick. That being said, I hope the Bills win out and make the playoffs! Go Bills!! CBF Sounds about right
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 Might as well do it now. One more loss probably eliminates us mathematically, or at least comes very close. It seems unlikely that we would win the tiebreakers even if we won out, but obviously that scenario is still in play. Might as well hope for the best as long as it's a possibility. That's the beauty of doing this now, during the bye. Hope still springs eternal.
plenzmd1 Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 So who do we want tonight? And yes I am being serious. My gut tells me we want the Pats to win, as I think IT helps them in effort to have playoff seeding set going into last game...plus piss the Panthers off and get em fired up for their game next week withe Jets.
YoloinOhio Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 So who do we want tonight? And yes I am being serious. My gut tells me we want the Pats to win, as I think IT helps them in effort to have playoff seeding set going into last game...plus piss the Panthers off and get em fired up for their game next week withe Jets. Oooh, crafty...
mrags Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 Three of the Bills' five remaining games (the next three, actually) are against teams already "effectively" eliminated from playoff contention. The opportunity is there. yup. This too. The next 3 games are extremely winnable. I'm not saying we win out or anything, but let's just sit back for a minute and think about this: The next 3 games are extremely winnable, and if that happens, going into a home game against Miami, at a shot at being over .500 with 1 game left, and the playoffs on the line, I like our chances. It all depends in the next 3 really. We need to get healthy (Woods and SJ), stay healthy, and get hot down the stretch. Yesterday was the start if that. All I know is that if they win the next 3, that Miami game is gonna be a party and a half! this----^ x1,000,000,000 Can you imagine Lelly in the sideline like back in that let it snow game comeback against Miami? Wow!!! Chills thinking about it
GA BILLS FAN Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 Ok --- an unproductive morning --- I went through all the remaining games and see a very plausible scenario where Bills end up tied with NY Jets -- that would include tie breakers, AFC record, common opponents and of course head to head -- it would come down to strength of victory -- which I don't know what that is --- probably "margin of victory, i.e. Pts for minus Pts against ? --- Buffalo leads in that right now
bonechiller Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 If they can beat Atlanta and Tampa(Toughest game IMO) then I'll start to believe it can happen. Until then, I'm just happy with the result of yesterdays game. Toughest game? I think I see someone from the northeast at the end of the schedule!
NoSaint Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 anything is possible, but its still a lot of chips that have to fall in our favor - both in our own games, and others. an outside shot is always fun but until they win the next 2, ill probably remain pretty focused simply on seeing good play and not a playoff picture.
Dorkington Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 Just a note: The Bills have had the second strongest schedule so far. They also have the biggest strength of victory percentage.
8-8 Forever? Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 We are getting healthy and with a win vs Atl, this season is officially "back". Jets the best D they will see for the rest of the season and the o put 27 on em
Reddy Freddy Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 A few thoughts: 1) I love this thread and eball for creating it, and this is no place for negativity. 2). I think there's a distinct possibility the last wild card gets in at 8-8, although I'll admit this is probably somewhat unlikely. Still, the teams currently in the 6th spot are .500, so what makes people so sure that won't be the case at the end of the season as well? And which of the contending teams do people see as likely to get to 9-7, keeping in mind that for most of them that would mean winning 5 of the last 6 games? Not saying if the Bills get to 8-8 they will get in, but I would not be shocked at all if an 8-8 team makes it. 3) It is probably the case that if we win each of the games that we'll be favored in, then we'll be 8-7 going into the New England game. I believe we'll be favored vs Atlanta. We win that, we'll be favored vs. Tampa and Jax. Win those, we'll be favored vs. Miami. Nothing earth-shattering here - just a different way to think about it. I actually see the Atlanta game as the scariest one of the next 4. As terribly as they've played, that's still a talented team that was almost in the SB last year. 4) If we get to the New England game with a realistic shot of making the playoffs in the final week, I don't care what anyone says, I'm counting that as a playoff game and declaring the end of the playoff drought.
mousetrap08 Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 (edited) Give me a break...the Bills aren't making the playoffs. Even an optimist can see that. You honestly think this team can win out? You are right the Bills are not going to the playoffs because no matter what. They will not win at New England and will probably stub their toes at Jacksonville ,Atlanta or Tampa. The Bills are known chokers in these kind of games and I need to be convinced other wise.. Edited November 18, 2013 by shadowcat10
reddogblitz Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 I'm not trying to be negative. But while looking at the AFC standings this morning and considering playoff scenarios, I noticed that only 2 teams in the AFC have a worse record than the Bills! But really, for now, we just gotta beat those Dirty Birds on forign soil ... One game at a time.
Rubes Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 Do not be deceived into thinking the Jax and Tampa games will in any way be easy. Those two have been stepping it up lately, and any game on the road is a challenge for this team. That said, those are the kind of games the Bills *have* to win if they want to have anyone take them seriously as a playoff team. Will they take the next step...?
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted November 18, 2013 Posted November 18, 2013 Ok --- an unproductive morning --- I went through all the remaining games and see a very plausible scenario where Bills end up tied with NY Jets -- that would include tie breakers, AFC record, common opponents and of course head to head -- it would come down to strength of victory -- which I don't know what that is --- probably "margin of victory, i.e. Pts for minus Pts against ? --- Buffalo leads in that right now SOV is the combined won-lost-tied percentage of all the teams that a club has defeated. This is where losing to the Saints, with the Jets beating the Saints, hurts. We have Atlanta, Jax, and TB left on the schedule, which will decease our SOV.
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