A Few Thoughts About The Game, in no particular order.....

[Bill from NYC]

Bill,

 

There are many ways in which the Bills have lost games that they should have won this season...Case in point....Kansas City.....There was a 14 point swing at the Chiefs one yard line that pretty much sealed the fate of the game. Then go back to Cleveland....If Manuel does not get hurt, we win that game....Tuel was horrible in that game. or the game against the Bengals in which special teams stunk up the joint and gave up a 30 yard punt return to allow the bengals to kick the winning FG. The point is that the LG is not the only weak spot on this team and we have lost ball games due to miscues in so many other facets of the game.

The above goes without saying. And as I said, there is no way to tell what the outcome would have been with a high quality guard such as Levitre. But in JUST my opinion, the team was not equipped for such a drop in talent at this position.

[JohnC]

 

 

There is no way to really know; I fully get this, but I think that if Levitre was on team this season, the Bills would have at least one more win, perhaps even two. I say this because there were SO many close games, and our qbs were SO young.

A few more sustained drives and more pass protection might have made a big difference.

One more win and the Bills playoffs hopes would be more than a glimmer. Two more wins and we would be right in the mix.

 

I was watching the LG from Miss. St (Jackson?). He looks like a monster but it will probably cost an early draft selection to grab him. But Levitre was also an early pick. In fact he cost the Bills 2 picks whereas they traded up to get him.

 

I know how much you lamented the fact that Levitre was allowed to leave, especially without a credible plan to address the void. What happens next year when Byrd is on the market after playing at a high level? The Redskins are desperate for DBs, especially a safety. Next year they will be off of their $36 M cap penalty ($18M per season). Unless the Bills franchise Byrd again at $8.2 he will be an unrestrictive free agent and an attractive player who will draw a lot of interest.

 

In my opinion not getting Byrd signed when the parties were not that far apart will come back to bite this franchise. The Bills have had a history of mediocre drafts. It is difficult to tolerate losing players that they do hit on. Moving one step forward and then one step back doesn't move you forward.

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

I know how much you lamented the fact that Levitre was allowed to leave, especially without a credible plan to address the void. What happens next year when Byrd is on the market after playing at a high level? The Redskins are desperate for DBs, especially a safety. Next year they will be off of their $36 M cap penalty ($18M per season). Unless the Bills franchise Byrd again at $8.2 he will be an unrestrictive free agent and an attractive player who will draw a lot of interest.

 

In my opinion not getting Byrd signed when the parties were not that far apart will come back to bite this franchise. The Bills have had a history of mediocre drafts. It is difficult to tolerate losing players that they do hit on. Moving one step forward and then one step back doesn't move you forward.

 

No problem. Stand up to Parker and slap the tag on him again, then try to sign him. They can't continue to allow Parker and/or others to dictate terms. It has to stop.

[thebandit27]

Firstly, I don't assume anything about any poster, good or bad. I allow their posts posts to do the talking. I'm not making any assumptions about your knowledge or experience, as I'm sure you're not making any about mine. I simply made a comment regarding one of your posts in which you refuted another post that cited quantifiable information with nothing more than dismissal. Quite honestly, its not worth continuing, but fine you disagree with it because you've watched alot of film on Wood. But, without watching tha same footage of all 32 centers every week, I just find it hard to definitively call him one of the top 5 in the league based on how he plays alone and not comparing it to all other centers in the league.

 

When you make a statement akin to "you can't disregard a ranking system because they downgrade your favorite player", I qualify that as assuming a great deal (vis a vis that I cannot separate my fandom from objectivity).

 

And as I said, I have watched a good amount of All-22 on other OLs in general. I don't shoot from the hip.

 

And for the record, I have no issue if someone disagrees with me; I'm simply saying that posting PFF's rankings should in no way be considered the end-all in terms of player rating. They get it wrong as often as they get it right. Listen to one of Hornsby's weekly podcasts with Peter King; he rightly qualifies their work on a regular basis.

 

To the individuals who were previously so adamant that this years O line was fine. That the O line graded so well that they wouldn't suffer the loss of LG Andy Levitre at all.

 

Continually stalking my every post in the off season when I would voice my concerns about the O line with such a condescending attitudes. All I say is, well done, and look again. Some individuals clearly don't know as much as they think they do, as Andy's replacement Colin Brown graded as the worst LG in the NFL after the first five weeks, with the exception of his backup. Since both players were cut from the roster after week five I'd have to say that O line wasn't fine at all, period!

 

 

38 rushes with a 1.8 YPC average gives me great pause for concern as the rookie QB was again forced to carry the offense in this game. The O line was one area that needed to be one of the strongest on the team to help support a rookie QB, and it hasn't been every game. This game the Bills were lucky that the rookie QB & defense played brilliantly.

 

Its not just about accumulating yards each week or at the end of the season. Its about winning games and being able to control the line of scrimmage, and clock by running when needing to do so. Counting on the QB to bail out the offense each game is exactly what got Chan Gailey and his predecessors fired.

 

So, in other words, you want to respond to me directly, but are worried that I'll remember that you were supposedly putting me on ignore for "stalking" you (which is funny...I always thought that people post their opinions on a message board to get responses, not to avoid them).

 

Well, that's okay, since I'm more than willing to once again refute your crusade.

 

You always talk about how the OL isn't good enough because they cannot get the push they need in key situations. Well, once again, you are incorrect. As I've pointed out to you plenty of times before, the team ranks in the top 1/3 in the NFL in power success, which is defined as:

 

Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

 

And this isn't an issue that comes down to opinions or grading, as NFL.com charts the same stat:

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&role=TM&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_TOTAL_AVERAGE_YDS

 

What do you know? 6th overall in Power runs to the left (86% success rate), 13th up the middle (73% success rate), 31st to the right (44% success). So when we boil it down, your point is relevant when the team tries to run right for a first down in crucial situations. And as you saw from the last game, they have zero trouble whatsoever getting 1 yard in key situations when they do the smart thing and call a QB sneak.

 

I'd also invite you to take a look at the All-22 breakdowns from games like NE and Pittsburgh, which highlight the fact that the OL is indeed opening holes, and that the RBs (Spiller in particular) are frequently missing them. Here's a few examples:

 

http://www.wgr550.com/JW-All-22-Review-Week-1/17263530

 

I can't find a link to the thread on here that showed Spiller's missed holes against Pittsburgh, but there were more than a few.

 

I'd also like you to address, if you would be so kind, the fact that--in addition to the Jets' #1 ranked run defense in YPC--the Bills have faced 4 other teams ranked in the top 11 in YPC allowed in Cleveland (3), Baltimore (5), Carolina (8), and Cincinnati (11), and hit them tfor 155, 200, 149, and 130 yards, respectively. In each of those games, they averaged 5.0, 3.7, 4.5, and 4.1 yards (again, respectively). This doesn't exactly reek of a team that cannot get push in the running game, so I'd like to hear your explanation.

 

Lastly, I would submit that yes, it is about accumulating yards and controlling the clock, which is how many teams win games. Watch NE play; they don't run the ball to control the LOS, they run the ball to control the clock and get first downs when they need to (and it's worth noting that they don't have the same level of Power Success that Buffalo does).

 

Again I say: you can parade PFF's numbers throughout the board all you want; it doesn't make them the bottom line or even the most representative numbers for the OL's performance. Are they the best OL in the league? No. Could they stand to upgrade at LG and probably RT? Yes. Is it the one component of the team holding them back? Not even close, which is the point I've been making to you for quite some time; one to which you cannot seem to acquiese regardless of how the relevent data fly in the face of it.

[ganesh]

 

In my opinion not getting Byrd signed when the parties were not that far apart will come back to bite this franchise. The Bills have had a history of mediocre drafts. It is difficult to tolerate losing players that they do hit on. Moving one step forward and then one step back doesn't move you forward.

 

We have no idea of how apart they were. The fact that they did not even get to the negotiating table indicates they were *FAR* apart and there is nothing to suggest else.

[thebandit27]

The above goes without saying. And as I said, there is no way to tell what the outcome would have been with a high quality guard such as Levitre. But in JUST my opinion, the team was not equipped for such a drop in talent at this position.

 

This here is the issue...letting Levitre go was the correct move; you don't pay that guy $8M/year. Not bringing in a better option than Legursky or Brown was the mistake.

[ganesh]

This here is the issue...letting Levitre go was the correct move; you don't pay that guy $8M/year. Not bringing in a better option than Legursky or Brown was the mistake.

+1. They could have signed the guy from SD for a far cheaper contract. However, as I said earlier, the Bills FO was caught between paying the big dollars to either Levitre or Byrd. They chose Byrd and lost!

[thewildrabbit]

I don't think the OL is to blame completely for yesterday's dismal run game. Firstly, the JETS are #1 against the RUN. So it was going to be hard to run the football against that front seven. Secondly, they were stacking up the line with 8 in the box and daring the rooking QB to beat them....Manuel failed that test in week two and Passed with flying colors yesterday. Finally, our RBs are hurt badly. They are not finding the holes and getting into the secondary.

I agree, as I don't entirely blame the O line either.

 

I think a lot has to do with how the RB's are being utilized in Nathaniel Hacketts offense. As PFF stated the RB's (Jackson) have to produce yards on their own given how the line is blocking, and FJax is 5th highest in the league at doing just that. Spiller was much better last season at breaking that first tackle then this year...injured wheels might be the issue.

 

I have to agree with Bill here, as I think the Bills could have won one or two more games at the beginning of the year with better play from the LG position. Protecting the QB is so important in my view. Not to mention building a decent power running attack.

[JohnC]

 

 

We have no idea of how apart they were. The fact that they did not even get to the negotiating table indicates they were *FAR* apart and there is nothing to suggest else.

 

 

No problem. Stand up to Parker and slap the tag on him again, then try to sign him. They can't continue to allow Parker and/or others to dictate terms. It has to stop.

 

Do you really believe that the Bills are going to franchise Byrd at $8.2? If Byrd reaches the market what are the odds of the Bills matching a Skins' offer that will more likely contain more guaranteed money in the contract?

 

 

 

We have no idea of how apart they were. The fact that they did not even get to the negotiating table indicates they were *FAR* apart and there is nothing to suggest else.

 

More often than not the contract claims put out for public consumption are meaningless. What is most important in an NFL contract is the guaranteed money. If the Skins are competing with the Bills for Byrd's services this offseason odds are that the Skins will offer more guaranteed money. Unless the Bills franchise him again he will probably be wearing another uniform. That would be a loss and a shame.

Edited November 19, 2013 by JohnC

[BADOLBILZ]

Bill,

 

There are many ways in which the Bills have lost games that they should have won this season...Case in point....Kansas City.....There was a 14 point swing at the Chiefs one yard line that pretty much sealed the fate of the game. Then go back to Cleveland....If Manuel does not get hurt, we win that game....Tuel was horrible in that game. or the game against the Bengals in which special teams stunk up the joint and gave up a 30 yard punt return to allow the bengals to kick the winning FG. The point is that the LG is not the only weak spot on this team and we have lost ball games due to miscues in so many other facets of the game.

 

I would sum it up this way....if they retain Tarvaris Jackson, sign another starting CB.....Aqib Talib signed for Leodis money.....and keep Levitre then this team is no worse than 9-2.

 

The value of those victories is a whole lot more than $15M in cap room.

 

That is to say nothing of the effect on CJ Spiller having his line all back together. That run with Colin Brown at guard was just brutal. He singlehandedly cost the Bills a Jets game that the Jets WANTED to give the Bills. And perhaps more importantly the long term prospects of Doug Marrone. Getting off to a winning start would have been huge for Marrone going forward. Confidence in the coaching is huge.

 

Now that being said, you have to give credit to Nix/Whaley and the coaching staff for getting guys like Hughes, Lawson, Branch, Alonso, Woods etc.. and getting them to perform at or above expectations......but it was still clearly and unnecessarily too little of an overall effort on the personnel side in the offseason. You think the Chiefs and their fans regret paying Bowe and franchising Albert? Because those are moves the Bills would NOT have made for the same reason they let Levitre walk.

[ganesh]

I would sum it up this way....if they retain Tarvaris Jackson, sign another starting CB.....Aqib Talib signed for Leodis money.....and keep Levitre then this team is no worse than 9-2.

 

The value of those victories is a whole lot more than $15M in cap room.

 

That is to say nothing of the effect on CJ Spiller having his line all back together. That run with Colin Brown at guard was just brutal. He singlehandedly cost the Bills a Jets game that the Jets WANTED to give the Bills. And perhaps more importantly the long term prospects of Doug Marrone. Getting off to a winning start would have been huge for Marrone going forward. Confidence in the coaching is huge.

 

Now that being said, you have to give credit to Nix/Whaley and the coaching staff for getting guys like Hughes, Lawson, Branch, Alonso, Woods etc.. and getting them to perform at or above expectations......but it was still clearly and unnecessarily too little of an overall effort on the personnel side in the offseason. You think the Chiefs and their fans regret paying Bowe and franchising Albert? Because those are moves the Bills would NOT have made for the same reason they let Levitre walk.

 

This is hindsight thinking....Talib would never have signed with the Bills. He was going to play for a contender. TJ played worse than Kolb. We unfortunately lost Kolb to a concussion. That is the way the game is played. There is no guarantee that TJ could have escaped the injury bug...I just don't see how we could have been 9-2 with those additions.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

... but Fitz has a better arm than Petyon Manning does now....

 

NFW.... No way no how. Just no.

[BADOLBILZ]

This is hindsight thinking....Talib would never have signed with the Bills. He was going to play for a contender. TJ played worse than Kolb. We unfortunately lost Kolb to a concussion. That is the way the game is played. There is no guarantee that TJ could have escaped the injury bug...I just don't see how we could have been 9-2 with those additions.

 

It's not hindsight. I was extremely critical of the Kolb signing and the pointless release of TJ. Kolb is the laughingstock QB of the NFL....big contract, fragile body, no production. He had never even thrown 10 TD passes in all those years of being given starting opportunities and he was swapped out for a guy who threw 25 TD in each of the past 2 seasons. And check out TJax stats compared to Kolb. Why they signed Kolb is incomprehensible.

 

Talib was my top free agent target. He isn't some established veteran looking for a last shot at a ring.....he wanted money. Nobody offered so he took an offer from the Pats. He was a great value in free agency and was perhaps the best CB in the league prior to his injury. When the Bills are back at the CB trough in round 1 over the next two seasons we will be wishing they had paid the modest coin to add Talib. And if you didn't like Talib, there were plenty of veteran options out there. In the end, a lack of veteran depth at corner cost the Bills games. They could have had Leodis and Talib for less than teams play for a premier CB and they would have come out of the gate defending the pass......and winning games.

 

I assumed they would keep Levitre and franchise Byrd. With a wealth of cap room it seemed the logical move. Continuity on the OL is a blessing. Levitre's loss has been felt in both the run and the pass game. His loss hurt the Bills far more than it could have helped the Titans.

 

Those early season losses were costly. The Pittsburgh game had the feel of so many of the rollovers this team has perpetrated at this point in the season where they start to realize that there is little chance of reaching their goal of a playoff appearance. If they are tied for first place or in command of one of those wildcard spots coming into that game I suspect we would have seen a much better effort. If the past is any indicator you can expect variable effort from here on out. This week was good. Next game? This is how the cycle of losing is perpetuated. You need to be pro-active when turning around a long losing streak. An organization like KC realized that they had a very small margin for error in turning around their fortunes and they played their hand aggressively. No way in hell the Bills sign Bowe and then franchise Albert. Would NEVER happen in the Russ Brandon era. The Bills were more passive and look at the result...4-7. Third from last in the AFC.

[Boatdrinks]

I assumed they would keep Levitre and franchise Byrd. With a wealth of cap room it seemed the logical move. Continuity on the OL is a blessing. Levitre's loss has been felt in both the run and the pass game. His loss hurt the Bills far more than it could have helped the Titans.

 

Those early season losses were costly. The Pittsburgh game had the feel of so many of the rollovers this team has perpetrated at this point in the season where they start to realize that there is little chance of reaching their goal of a playoff appearance. If they are tied for first place or in command of one of those wildcard spots coming into that game I suspect we would have seen a much better effort. If the past is any indicator you can expect variable effort from here on out. This week was good. Next game? This is how the cycle of losing is perpetuated. You need to be pro-active when turning around a long losing streak. An organization like KC realized that they had a very small margin for error in turning around their fortunes and they played their hand aggressively. No way in hell the Bills sign Bowe and then franchise Albert. Would NEVER happen in the Russ Brandon era. The Bills were more passive and look at the result...4-7. Third from last in the AFC.

 

The Bills tried aggressively to trade for Alex Smith. They were the only team that offered 2 draft picks and forced KC to pony up two picks(their draft slot was higher than the BIlls) or back out. Can't fault the Bills there. Levitre was priced out of the Bills plans due to the ridiculous franchise $$ that lump all OL's together rather than acknowledging the pay disparity between interior lineman and tackles. Overplaying Levitre was never going to happen, but they could have drafted a replacement or signed a better LG. Lack of depth at CB cost them the Jets game, for sure but the biggest error was deciding which vet QB to keep/sign. Even if Fitz was released, the sound decision based on past history was to keep TJax over signing an injury prone Kolb. Seeing as they exactly one win removed from a WC spot, it would be hard to argue that a lack of a vet QB didn't cost them wins vs CLE or KC, or even PIT as EJM did not look prepared to return there. QB is the toughest to overcome, look at the Packers , who may be watching a playoff berth slip away.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

The Bills tried aggressively to trade for Alex Smith. They were the only team that offered 2 draft picks and forced KC to pony up two picks(their draft slot was higher than the BIlls) or back out. Can't fault the Bills there. Levitre was priced out of the Bills plans due to the ridiculous franchise $$ that lump all OL's together rather than acknowledging the pay disparity between interior lineman and tackles. Overplaying Levitre was never going to happen, but they could have drafted a replacement or signed a better LG. Lack of depth at CB cost them the Jets game, for sure but the biggest error was deciding which vet QB to keep/sign. Even if Fitz was released, the sound decision based on past history was to keep TJax over signing an injury prone Kolb. Seeing as they exactly one win removed from a WC spot, it would be hard to argue that a lack of a vet QB didn't cost them wins vs CLE or KC, or even PIT as EJM did not look prepared to return there. QB is the toughest to overcome, look at the Packers , who may be watching a playoff berth slip away.

 

Excellent objective post.

[ganesh]

Excellent objective post.

+1

[thewildrabbit]

The Bills tried aggressively to trade for Alex Smith. They were the only team that offered 2 draft picks and forced KC to pony up two picks(their draft slot was higher than the BIlls) or back out. Can't fault the Bills there. Levitre was priced out of the Bills plans due to the ridiculous franchise $$ that lump all OL's together rather than acknowledging the pay disparity between interior lineman and tackles. Overplaying Levitre was never going to happen, but they could have drafted a replacement or signed a better LG. Lack of depth at CB cost them the Jets game, for sure but the biggest error was deciding which vet QB to keep/sign. Even if Fitz was released, the sound decision based on past history was to keep TJax over signing an injury prone Kolb. Seeing as they exactly one win removed from a WC spot, it would be hard to argue that a lack of a vet QB didn't cost them wins vs CLE or KC, or even PIT as EJM did not look prepared to return there. QB is the toughest to overcome, look at the Packers , who may be watching a playoff berth slip away.

I agree.

 

While I do agree that not having a proven veteran backup QB, and CB hurt the team over the first five games. I also think there was also a big problem with that O line, and like many here I voiced my concerns before the season even started. Consider that the team was starting a rookie QB and his backup was an un drafted free agent.

 

The Bills O line allowed 8 sacks in the Jets game in week 3. It wasn't just the starting LG Colin Brown, it was also the lack of decent depth behind Brown. Backup OL Sam Young went into that Jets game for a series after Urbik left the game with an injury, and Young promptly allowed two sacks in one series. Needless to say, Urbik was able to return to the game and Young never saw the field again. The Bills claimed OL Antoine McClain from the Raiders and released Sam Young, after week five on Oct 7th.

 

Then once Legursky was able to return to the lineup from injury starting LG Colin Brown was benched, and on Oct 15th he was released from the team. The Bills promoted OL Mark Asper from the practice squad to replace him on the roster.

 

How bad was LG Colin Brown? He graded an astoundingly bad (-23.7) grade after only three games! To put that grade in perspective CB Justin Rodgers (who was recently released from the team) in that Jets game was targeted eight times and surrendered six receptions for an absurd 247 yards, and two TD's. That represents 74% of the Jets’ gross passing total. Rodgers grade for that game was a mere (-3.8).

 

Jeez, even Spiller against the Jets this week (who only rushed for 6 yards on 13 attempts) graded at (-2.1). Spiller picked up 10 yards after contact, so he was basically getting hit before he even got to the LoS.

 

 

 

I still have strong concerns about that current Bills O line and depth. If this team ever wants to see the playoffs, eventually win in the playoffs, advance to the SB, they need much, much better play from that line. While I'm glad Buddy Nix, and his bizarre thoughts that you don't need a top O line to win in today's NFL is no longer in control. I have to wonder if that clown instilled his thoughts into new GM Whaley, considering what they went into the season with.

[BADOLBILZ]

The Bills tried aggressively to trade for Alex Smith. They were the only team that offered 2 draft picks and forced KC to pony up two picks(their draft slot was higher than the BIlls) or back out. Can't fault the Bills there. Levitre was priced out of the Bills plans due to the ridiculous franchise $$ that lump all OL's together rather than acknowledging the pay disparity between interior lineman and tackles. Overplaying Levitre was never going to happen, but they could have drafted a replacement or signed a better LG. Lack of depth at CB cost them the Jets game, for sure but the biggest error was deciding which vet QB to keep/sign. Even if Fitz was released, the sound decision based on past history was to keep TJax over signing an injury prone Kolb. Seeing as they exactly one win removed from a WC spot, it would be hard to argue that a lack of a vet QB didn't cost them wins vs CLE or KC, or even PIT as EJM did not look prepared to return there. QB is the toughest to overcome, look at the Packers , who may be watching a playoff berth slip away.

 

We are generally in agreement. I know the Bills wanted Smith. That was the right approach. Much of what they did last offseason was good. But the errors were egregious. The Kevin Kolb signing was one of the dumbest moves in franchise history. Not because it cost them a lot of money, but just because the guy is terrible and it caused the team to lose games this year. The reason Levitre was paid how he was paid is because guard was not a strong position in free agency. Levitre was overpaid, but sometimes you need to assess your options and overpay. The synergy lost by subtracting Levitre has been significant. His contract, like most doesn't nearly equate to a guaranteed $8M per year. They have $20M of cap room, they could have front-loaded Levitre even more than TN and been just fine going forward. There is a group of fans on here that think that the couple games that bad guard play cost the Bills was a fair sacrifice.....that it has kinda' worked out........well the only reason it hasn't been worse is that Pears and Wood have defied the odds and been healthy all season. There is no depth on this OL. Legursky was a backup player. He and Brown should have never been in position to start. The Bills have been fortunate that the Levitre decision didn't turn out much worse......and they are only 4-7 so that is saying something.

[l< j]

I know the board has moved on and this thread is in full "that's not what I said/yes it is" mode (which is the last gasp of TBD threads, the meta stage). But I'm kinda still buzzing from the win over the Jests, and one big reason is the way the Bills upended the trend of being bullied by them. The Jets came in with the same plan: hit 'em in the teeth and watch 'em fold. By the 4th quarter, maybe the 3rd, we will be grinding the clock behind 6 yard runs on first down.

 

What is so encouraging is that the Bills went toe to toe. They didn't fold, they didn't change things up or panic when the running game didn't produce. They kept EJ clean--from 8 sacks in week 3 to 0!--and they beat the crap out of that other guy.

 

Yeah, that was different.

 

kj