Well as of right now we draft 6th

[K D]

Update after week #14:

 

we draft 9th

 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/24377057/nfl-draft-updated-top10-order

Yep it was a bad day for us in terms of drafting. A lot of the 3 and 4 win teams lost and we won our 5th. Part of our problem is we have never had a season where we tanked and won 1 or 2 games and got the top pick. We have been mediocre for the past 15 yrs

[OCinBuffalo]

Well, I didn't see this thread. I looked, but didn't find.

 

Oh well, I will put this here then:

 

As of today, if we win both games:

13/14th (69% chance) 12-14th (87%). The mode is 13th(most likely outcome in the range)

 

If we win 1 game:

10/11th (68%), 9-11th(88%). Mode is 10th.

 

If we win 0 games:

7/8th (68%) 6-8th(83%). Mode 7th. However, the chance of 9th happening(13%) is only 2 pts off of the chance of 6th(15%) happening. So, that's practially a wash. (And, this reflects the "approaching limit" of this data at the lower boundary, hence the conclusions below)

 

When we get above 80% confidence, normally that's says "enough".

 

Summary:

No top 5. 15% chance of 6, provided we lose both games. Which means, no Manziel, no Bridgewater, no Mariota. I say again: no Manziel, no Bridgewater, no Mariota. Wish all you want, when you get done? No Manziel, no Bridgewater, no Mariota.

 

I believe I should also clarify something for the confused, especially Mike Schoop, and his clones: there was never a chance of us being in the top 5. Or, the odds of that happening, compared to the the odds of it not happening = no contest.

 

Detail:

5 Teams currently "ahead" of us WILL take QB(HOU, JAX, OAK, CLE, MIN), 2 teams might. (ATL and TAM), and let's never count out the Redskins being "aggressive"(read: stupid). All but the one team(MIN) that isn't a "must" at QB, LOST YESTERDAY! Win or lose, we were never going to stay "ahead", in terms of draft order, or "behind", in terms of record, all 7(will/may draft QB) teams. We were never going to stay "ahead" of 3 of them. That's because: 8 teams have always had a better chance to finish "ahead" of us, than we of them.

 

(Notice, this analysis doesn't feature "trade ups" from below 7 for teams that need QB. Trading up to 6, as opposed to 1-3, is a near certainty if any of the top 3 are on the board. So, technically you can add: Jets, PIT, TEN, and even DAL, ARZ, CHI, to the list of teams that need a QB, and will have the resources and draft position to move up ahead of us, but, I don't need to count them, because my argument still defeats the silliness, regardless).

 

The "we should have lost arugument" is nonense. The math NEVER supported your argument. It didn't support it 3 weeks ago, and it doesn't support it now. This is because as we see above: "the approaching limit" = we had an easier schedule, and, there's only so much we could do with 5-6 games remaining and with teams 1-2 losses "ahead" of us, who are worse teams than us. Us losing doesn't account for them losing. In fact, it solves nothing.

 

Conclusion:

As you can plainly see(unless you have an agenda), even if we lose out, we STILL don't get anywhere near(realistically, 7th is as high as we go) where we need to be to pick the player you thought we could get, and nearly ALL the teams in front of us will pick QB.

 

Please abandon the "we should have lost yesterday/I'm happy we lost to ATL/TAM" nonsense. Arguing against math is a waste of the board's time.

 

Thank you.

[TH3]

Draft position makes no difference and the posts and history show it:

 

- "We shouldn't have drafted Dareus because JJ Watt went later"...you can say this with every pick except the absolute home runs - so it makes no difference where you draft then.

- "We needed to lose out more to get a better pick" be be countered with...."we missed out on kapernick and Wilson who were drafted in the third"

- We have high picks that were atrocious - Maybin - and later round and UDFA's that are great - Kiko and Robey

 

Just draft well - if we can replicate this years draft 2-3 more times we will be in a solid position (I am thinking EJ pans out)....look at a Polian drafts....there is a reason why he went to the Super Bowl everywhere he went - he could draft well wherever he went and no matter what position he was drafting in....

 

Also - Manziel.....that dude is not going to last half a season....he ways like 180 pounds, wet, with rocks in his pockets....

[2003Contenders]

Personally I would like to see the team continue to improve and finish strong. Bonus: play spoiler to Miami and New England. In terms of the draft, let the chips fall where they may.

[Koufax]

I'm so happy we won our 5th game, and I can't wait for us to win our 6th next Sunday. I want 7-9 right now, and don't care at all about draft position drop from 5 to 15 if we can pull it off.

 

Drafting smart is what matters on draft day, and winning football games is what matters during the season. If you lose sight of either of those it is a tough hill to climb.

 

It's okay for me to root for some of the other teams to win some games, but I with all my heart want this team to claw its way to 7-9 and finish on a three game winning streak. Beating N.E. on the road in a game that will be worth a bye to them is going to be really hard, but I still hope it happens.

 

Right now we can do no worse than #17, and can go no higher than #2 before any tie breakers are thought about. Realistically we are going to be locked in the 5 to 15 range as the other games shake out, and probably even in a narrower area we are used to picking in (8 to 12), where the difference matters a lot less than wins on the field do.

 

At 5-11 we pick 2nd to 11th

At 6-10 we pick 3rd to 14th

At 7-9 we pick 9th to 17th

 

But most importantly, without some big upsets in the last couple weeks, there are going to be very few 5-11 and 6-10 teams, so our next win (Sunday against the Fish) is going to have very little impact on our draft position, and it is very unlikely we pick in the top six regardless of what happens the last few weeks.

 

I don't think there is any reason at all to think about draft position and not wins as the most important and valuable thing to this team over these last two weeks.

 

Go Bills!

[bobobonators]

Yep it was a bad day for us in terms of drafting. A lot of the 3 and 4 win teams lost and we won our 5th. Part of our problem is we have never had a season where we tanked and won 1 or 2 games and got the top pick. We have been mediocre for the past 15 yrs

 

hahaha.. ya man, so true! Look at the Texans..they go from playoffs last 4 years or so to being worst team in NFL with #1 pick. They'll be back in playoffs next year. We'll be 7-9 next year.

[BigBuff423]

The most important aspect of changing the culture of this team. As fans we have been so desensitized to losing that we keep thinking of the Draft as hitting the lottery. And, "IF" the BILLS can Draft really high and have like, 10 #1 draft picks, they will become the Dynasty to end all Dynasties...yeah, um, NO! The only way to *be* a winning organization is to actually win! Despite the odds, despite the detractors, despite the injuries, and despite the previous culture of losing!! This team needs to *learn* how to win! Winning is a cultivated mind-set, it doesn't just happen...and getting this team to see the opportunity to win and then executing the win is tantamount to success at this point during Marrone's first year. Change will occur, no doubt in my mind, I can see the Dougs going to town on this roster when the season ends, but implementing a winning mentality is probably more important than anything else this team could do right now.