I still believe in EJ Manuel

[K-9]

Geno Smith's starting WRs when he lit us up in week 3 were Stephen Hill, Jeremy Kerley, and a gimpy Santonio Holmes. I don't need EJ to light it up, but he needs to play better than he did last week. No excuses.

 

Any chance their CBs play as badly as Rogers did in that game? You have a game like Rogers had, and you and I can catch passes from Geno Smith.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[GG]

Any chance their CBs play as badly as Rogers did in that game? You have a game like Rogers had, and you and I can catch passes from Geno Smith.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Do you want to watch Gilmore's tape from last week?

[K-9]

Do you want to watch Gilmore's tape from last week?

 

As bad as it was, it was no where NEAR as bad as the day Rogers had against the Jest.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[dave mcbride]

Do you want to watch Gilmore's tape from last week?

 

Gilmore is hurting the team because of his injury. He's good at jamming WRs, and he simply can't do it now because of his arm. It's killing him. I know he wants to play, but at some point you've gotta take him out for the good of the team.

[ajzepp]

No, he isn't.

 

He had a bad game in his return to the field. He looked far better against both Baltimore and Cleveland (his last 2 games prior to Pittsburgh) than he did against the Jets, so the bold statement above is basically exclusive to the Pittsburgh game. Stating it as though it's a trend is patently incorrect.

 

Your final statement is far more representative of a salient point.

 

He game out of the gate in the 2nd half of that Cleveland game ready to roll...he was fired up, hitting passes, and commanding the offense. Then he decided to let the defender get a shot on his knee and that was that. But I really thought that was going to be representative of EJ getting over the hump...so we just have to wait until he gets back to that point, which I dont think will be long.

[Orton's Arm]

 

 

They'll pile on just the same, don't fret

 

I can only speak for myself. But if Manuel is accurate, makes good reads, and handles himself well, but gets punished by a lot of WR drops, then I won't pile on. On the other hand, if he's inaccurate, but puts up good stats anyway due to YAC and WRs making circus catches, then I will. For me, this is about whether Manuel does a good job with the things under his personal control.

[K-9]

He game out of the gate in the 2nd half of that Cleveland game ready to roll...he was fired up, hitting passes, and commanding the offense. Then he decided to let the defender get a shot on his knee and that was that. But I really thought that was going to be representative of EJ getting over the hump...so we just have to wait until he gets back to that point, which I dont think will be long.

 

As I said earlier, the Cleveland game marked the 4th time this season that EJ came out after the half and scorched the opposing team. And that tells me a lot about what he and Hackett are seeing and the adjustments they're making. It's a shame that got derailed for a month or so. Against the Steelers, he was a shadow of the QB we saw in the 3rd quarter of the Cleveland game. First time all year he's been THAT impatient over the course of the game.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[yungmack]

By starting EJ last week -- which I think was a foolish mistake -- Marrone, and by extension Whaley and Brandon, have made it clear that finding out what they have in Manuel is more important than winning right now. And the reason they would do that, I think, is to come to a decision about drafting a QB in May which is shaping up to be a much better QB class than the past one.

 

Instead of the back and forth about EJ's future, his shortcomings, his need "to develop," etc. that's going on around here, maybe the best way people on both sides of the pros and cons about EJ could get some clarity is to ask yourself this question: if EJ were coming out this year and the Bills had a real shot at drafting Mariota, Manziel, etc., would you pick EJ? If your answer is No, then that tells you all you need to know about your true beliefs about him. And it indicates exactly what the Bills should do in the next draft.

 

There's an old adage that you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. So if what you have with EJ is a guy with a lot of (obvious) shortcomings, why would you expend a whole lot of effort and time on trying to improve him (which may never happen) when you could (maybe) draft someone without those shortcomings? If EJ doesn't show real, vast improvement from here to the end of the season, I think the FO has to bite the bullet, admit they made a mistake, and move on.

[Gordio]

By starting EJ last week -- which I think was a foolish mistake -- Marrone, and by extension Whaley and Brandon, have made it clear that finding out what they have in Manuel is more important than winning right now. And the reason they would do that, I think, is to come to a decision about drafting a QB in May which is shaping up to be a much better QB class than the past one.

 

Instead of the back and forth about EJ's future, his shortcomings, his need "to develop," etc. that's going on around here, maybe the best way people on both sides of the pros and cons about EJ could get some clarity is to ask yourself this question: if EJ were coming out this year and the Bills had a real shot at drafting Mariota, Manziel, etc., would you pick EJ? If your answer is No, then that tells you all you need to know about your true beliefs about him. And it indicates exactly what the Bills should do in the next draft.

 

There's an old adage that you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. So if what you have with EJ is a guy with a lot of (obvious) shortcomings, why would you expend a whole lot of effort and time on trying to improve him (which may never happen) when you could (maybe) draft someone without those shortcomings? If EJ doesn't show real, vast improvement from here to the end of the season, I think the FO has to bite the bullet, admit they made a mistake, and move on.

 

You make some excellent points. It is what a smart front office would do. My guess is Manuel would be the 5th or 6th QB of the board if he was in next years draft. That should scare anybody who thinks the Bills should not draft another QB next year with their first pick.

[JohnC]

I can only speak for myself. But if Manuel is accurate, makes good reads, and handles himself well, but gets punished by a lot of WR drops, then I won't pile on. On the other hand, if he's inaccurate, but puts up good stats anyway due to YAC and WRs making circus catches, then I will. For me, this is about whether Manuel does a good job with the things under his personal control.

 

You are being too quick with your assessment of Manuel. Whether he dramatically improves his performance or not in the Jets' game will not be as telling or conclusive as you are making it out to be. As a prospect Manuel was rawer than many other prospects. Without a doubt Barkley and Nassib were better prepared to play sooner than EJ but both lacked his potential upside because of his more imposing physical talents.

 

No one can argue that EJ's his side lining injuries in preseason and during the season didn't set him back. Let's now allow him the opportunity to struggle and learn the game. Do I have some early concerns about his game? Absolutely. His footwork and resulting inaccuracy bother me very much. But it is still very early in the developmental process.

 

This current staff was determined to find their franchise qb in last year's draft. EJ was their selection. So there is not going to be a quick jettisoning of him or another high draft pick used for a qb in next year's draft. My fundamental point is that for now this is the horse that is going to be ridden with no other option in the barn.

Edited November 13, 2013 by JohnC

[Orton's Arm]

By starting EJ last week -- which I think was a foolish mistake -- Marrone, and by extension Whaley and Brandon, have made it clear that finding out what they have in Manuel is more important than winning right now. And the reason they would do that, I think, is to come to a decision about drafting a QB in May which is shaping up to be a much better QB class than the past one.

 

Instead of the back and forth about EJ's future, his shortcomings, his need "to develop," etc. that's going on around here, maybe the best way people on both sides of the pros and cons about EJ could get some clarity is to ask yourself this question: if EJ were coming out this year and the Bills had a real shot at drafting Mariota, Manziel, etc., would you pick EJ? If your answer is No, then that tells you all you need to know about your true beliefs about him. And it indicates exactly what the Bills should do in the next draft.

 

There's an old adage that you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. So if what you have with EJ is a guy with a lot of (obvious) shortcomings, why would you expend a whole lot of effort and time on trying to improve him (which may never happen) when you could (maybe) draft someone without those shortcomings? If EJ doesn't show real, vast improvement from here to the end of the season, I think the FO has to bite the bullet, admit they made a mistake, and move on.

 

 

You make some excellent points. It is what a smart front office would do. My guess is Manuel would be the 5th or 6th QB of the board if he was in next years draft. That should scare anybody who thinks the Bills should not draft another QB next year with their first pick.

 

> By starting EJ last week -- which I think was a foolish mistake -- Marrone, and by extension Whaley and

> Brandon, have made it clear that finding out what they have in Manuel is more important than winning right now.

 

I pray you're right about that. But unfortunately, I've come up with another explanation for why they started him. It's quite possible Marrone believes that Manuel is enough better than Tuel or Lewis that even a slightly injured, rusty Manuel gives him his best chance to win. If they're that convinced in their belief in Manuel, then I don't think the next six games will be sufficient to change their way of thinking. Not enough for them to do the right thing and use a first round pick on a QB.

 

I really hope I'm wrong about this. This team needs a franchise QB in the worst way.

 

> if EJ were coming out this year and the Bills had a real shot at drafting Mariota, Manziel, etc., would you pick EJ?

 

A very legitimate question; with a glaringly obvious answer.

 

I realize most people in football organizations have type A personalities; and want everything done yesterday. It's unfortunate that the Bills' brass allowed their type A-created impatience to cause them to take their QB a year too early. The Bills need to bite the bullet, admit to themselves how badly they messed up, and fix the problem by taking a first round QB in 2014!

 

Gordio:

> [Drafting a first round QB in 2014] is what a smart front office would do.

 

Agreed. But how are the actions of a hypothetical smart front office relevant to the Bills?

[KikO M G]

Marrone came out with this stat today:

 

Manuel had the 3rd best QBR through his first 5 games of any QB since 2000. Translation: game 6 was an anomaly and he was on the right track before the injury.

Edited November 13, 2013 by KikO M G

[K-9]

> By starting EJ last week -- which I think was a foolish mistake -- Marrone, and by extension Whaley and

> Brandon, have made it clear that finding out what they have in Manuel is more important than winning right now.

 

I pray you're right about that. But unfortunately, I've come up with another explanation for why they started him. It's quite possible Marrone believes that Manuel is enough better than Tuel or Lewis that even a slightly injured, rusty Manuel gives him his best chance to win. If they're that convinced in their belief in Manuel, then I don't think the next six games will be sufficient to change their way of thinking. Not enough for them to do the right thing and use a first round pick on a QB.

 

I really hope I'm wrong about this. This team needs a franchise QB in the worst way.

 

> if EJ were coming out this year and the Bills had a real shot at drafting Mariota, Manziel, etc., would you pick EJ?

 

A very legitimate question; with a glaringly obvious answer.

 

I realize most people in football organizations have type A personalities; and want everything done yesterday. It's unfortunate that the Bills' brass allowed their type A-created impatience to cause them to take their QB a year too early. The Bills need to bite the bullet, admit to themselves how badly they messed up, and fix the problem by taking a first round QB in 2014!

 

Gordio:

> [Drafting a first round QB in 2014] is what a smart front office would do.

 

Agreed. But how are the actions of a hypothetical smart front office relevant to the Bills?

 

So you're calling it official: EJ Manuel is a bust.

 

Thanks for playing.

 

Please come back when the Bills pick someone you deem worthy.

 

Can't wait to see who that is. But if it's Mariota, God help us all.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited November 13, 2013 by K-9

[Heitz]

Jesus....does the fact that he has been injured for 4 weeks come into play at all here? Improvement? How? Where are the reps....where is the chemistry with his targets.....a QB...especially a rookie NEEDS those things. Were really gonna make a evaluation on a rookie QB that hasn't been on the field for 4 weeks?

 

John, don't you know practice doesn't make perfect? You're either naturally perfect, or you're a bust

 

I'm amazed that everyone is ignoring EJ being out, especially since we hear from the talking heads all of the time about how important reps, chemistry, etc. are to a QB.

 

Not for us though, be great or Ralph is cheap.

[Orton's Arm]

 

 

You are being too quick with your assessment of Manuel. Whether he dramatically improves his performance or not in the Jets' game will not be as telling or conclusive as you are making it out to be. As a prospect Manuel was rawer than many other prospects. Without a doubt Barkley and Nassib were better prepared to play sooner than EJ but both lacked his potential upside because of his more imposing physical talents.

 

No one can argue that EJ's his side lining injuries in preseason and during the season didn't set him back. Let's now allow him the opportunity to struggle and learn the game. Do I have some early concerns about his game? Absolutely. His footwork and resulting inaccuracy bother me very much. But it is still very early in the developmental process.

 

This current staff was determined to find their franchise qb in last year's draft. EJ was their selection. So there is not going to be a quick jettisoning of him or another high draft pick used for a qb in next year's draft. My fundamental point is that for now this is the horse that is going to be ridden with no other option in the barn.

 

> As a prospect Manuel was rawer than many other prospects.

 

The other day I watched Manuel's college highlight video. 90 - 95% of what I saw consisted either of a) Manuel running the ball, or b) Manuel throwing to ridiculously wide-open targets. I saw little evidence of Manuel going to his second read, let alone his third or fourth read. I was dumbfounded that the Bills would use a first round pick on a QB whose highlight reel was as lacking as that!

 

"Raw" is one way of describing someone like that. "Raw" implies that if a college QB prospect is given enough time to become cooked, he'll eventually learn to quickly and accurately process large amounts of information; and will develop the ability to throw perfect passes into tight coverage. The problem with that line of thinking is that if a guy hasn't demonstrated those things at the college level--which Manuel clearly hasn't--odds are strongly against his doing so as a pro.

 

> Without a doubt Barkley and Nassib were better prepared to play sooner than EJ

 

It's not just a question of playing sooner. It's a question of non-physical upside: mental bandwidth, accuracy when throwing into tight coverage, etc. Barkley did a much better job of demonstrating those things in college than did Manuel. Until proven otherwise, we have to assume that Barkley will continue having an advantage over Manuel in those areas for the duration of their respective careers.

 

> but both lacked [Manuel's] potential upside because of his more imposing physical talents.

 

J.P. Losman had much better physical tools than Tom Brady. A stronger arm. Faster legs. But Tom Brady had the better upside; because a QB's upside is located mostly between his ears.

 

I realize that a lot of people use the word "upside" differently than me. But that usage is incorrect. Just because you can see good foot speed or a strong arm more readily than you can see fast information processing speed or the ability to accurately throw into tight coverage; doesn't mean that mental upside is any less real than physical upside. If anything, differences in college QBs' mental upsides are significantly more pronounced than differences in their physical upsides.

[JohnC]

 

 

> As a prospect Manuel was rawer than many other prospects.

 

The other day I watched Manuel's college highlight video. 90 - 95% of what I saw consisted either of a) Manuel running the ball, or b) Manuel throwing to ridiculously wide-open targets. I saw little evidence of Manuel going to his second read, let alone his third or fourth read. I was dumbfounded that the Bills would use a first round pick on a QB whose highlight reel was as lacking as that!

 

"Raw" is one way of describing someone like that. "Raw" implies that if a college QB prospect is given enough time to become cooked, he'll eventually learn to quickly and accurately process large amounts of information; and will develop the ability to throw perfect passes into tight coverage. The problem with that line of thinking is that if a guy hasn't demonstrated those things at the college level--which Manuel clearly hasn't--odds are strongly against his doing so as a pro.

 

> Without a doubt Barkley and Nassib were better prepared to play sooner than EJ

 

It's not just a question of playing sooner. It's a question of non-physical upside: mental bandwidth, accuracy when throwing into tight coverage, etc. Barkley did a much better job of demonstrating those things in college than did Manuel. Until proven otherwise, we have to assume that Barkley will continue having an advantage over Manuel in those areas for the duration of their respective careers.

 

> but both lacked [Manuel's] potential upside because of his more imposing physical talents.

 

J.P. Losman had much better physical tools than Tom Brady. A stronger arm. Faster legs. But Tom Brady had the better upside; because a QB's upside is located mostly between his ears.

 

I realize that a lot of people use the word "upside" differently than me. But that usage is incorrect. Just because you can see good foot speed or a strong arm more readily than you can see fast information processing speed or the ability to accurately throw into tight coverage; doesn't mean that mental upside is any less real than physical upside. If anything, differences in college QBs' mental upsides are significantly more pronounced than differences in their physical upsides.

 

One of my major problems I have with your "quick" assessment of EJ is that you are to a large extent making a judgment on highlight films that you have observed. That is a very small slice of his performances to make a judgment on.

 

You don't think that this organization expended a lot of time and effort in comparing EJ to the other top qb prospects in last year's draft? All the candidates were thoroughly vetted and compared against one another. The staff to a large extent was investing in the success of their careers with their selection.

 

Will EJ develop into a legitimate franchise qb? I'm not foolish enough to say that I know for sure. What I know for sure is that it is too early in his injury riddled rookie year to make a confident judgment.

 

Whatever assets that Barkley and Nassib have over EJ are negated by their physical limitations. If you are going to take a risk on a qb then I would rather do so with the qb who has greater physical tools.

 

Let me be blunt to the extent that it will irritate a lot of the apologists who follow this team. EJ Manuel is not playing on a good team. This current team as it was constituted was not going to be a playoff caliber team nor even capable of having a winning record. EJ is a rookie qb on a mediocre team. That is also a factor that has hindered him. Let me also add that the Bills will not be a playoff team nexr year no matter how much EJ improves. This team has too many holes to fill for this languid organization to fill next year. When you are $20 M under the cap this year and are rolling in salary into next year what does that say about the organization's determination to get good as soon as possible? My point is that the qb position is a critical issue but there are so many more issues that need to be dealt with before the team becomes a serious team.

[KikO M G]

Good QBs win, bad QBs don't. The rest is just details to keep everyone talking and thinking that they have it all figured out.

[K-9]

Good QBs win, bad QBs don't. The rest is just details to keep everyone talking and thinking that they have it all figured out.

 

Do you need a list of all the good QBs who didn't win?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[KikO M G]

So what do we have here? Some people believe Manuel has the tools to be a franchise QB, and some don't. We won't know the answer by the end of this season but if Manuel plays all 6 games, we will have a much better idea. He doesn't have to be the best, but he has to be a top 15 QB for the team to be a playoff contender. If he demonstrates that ability, the Bills should stick with him, even potentially through another "development" year. If he doesn't show that ability, and the team ends up with a top 5 pick, they would be foolish to pass on a better QB prospect out of embarrassment to admit that EJ didn't pan out as they had planned.

[Orton's Arm]

 

 

One of my major problems I have with your "quick" assessment of EJ is that you are to a large extent making a judgment on highlight films that you have observed. That is a very small slice of his performances to make a judgment on.

 

You don't think that this organization expended a lot of time and effort in comparing EJ to the other top qb prospects in last year's draft? All the candidates were thoroughly vetted and compared against one another. The staff to a large extent was investing in the success of their careers with their selection.

 

Will EJ develop into a legitimate franchise qb? I'm not foolish enough to say that I know for sure. What I know for sure is that it is too early in his injury riddled rookie year to make a confident judgment.

 

Whatever assets that Barkley and Nassib have over EJ are negated by their physical limitations. If you are going to take a risk on a qb then I would rather do so with the qb who has greater physical tools.

 

Let me be blunt to the extent that it will irritate a lot of the apologists who follow this team. EJ Manuel is not playing on a good team. This current team as it was constituted was not going to be a playoff caliber team nor even capable of having a winning record. EJ is a rookie qb on a mediocre team. That is also a factor that has hindered him. Let me also add that the Bills will not be a playoff team nexr year no matter how much EJ improves. This team has too many holes to fill for this languid organization to fill next year. When you are $20 M under the cap this year and are rolling in salary into next year what does that say about the organization's determination to get good as soon as possible? My point is that the qb position is a critical issue but there are so many more issues that need to be dealt with before the team becomes a serious team.

 

> One of my major problems I have with your "quick" assessment of EJ is that you are to a large extent making a

> judgment on highlight films that you have observed. That is a very small slice of his performances to make a judgment on.

 

Granted. On the other hand, those highlight film plays presumably represent the best he has to offer. If there's nothing in that "best" which shows he can make more than two reads, or throw to anyone other than a ridiculously wide open receiver, then that's a very serious concern.

 

Watching that highlight video merely reinforced concerns I'd already felt based on what I'd read from football experts and FSU fans. Add to that the fact that FSU's offense is doing significantly better this year than last year due largely to their upgrade at the QB position, and there's very serious cause for concern.

 

> You don't think that this organization expended a lot of time and effort in comparing EJ to

> the other top qb prospects in last year's draft? All the candidates were thoroughly vetted

> and compared against one another. The staff to a large extent was investing in the success

> of their careers with their selection.

 

The above text sounds good. The problem is that you could write the exact same thing for any team which uses a first round pick on a QB. You could have written those exact same words for Denver after the Tebow pick, for crying out loud! Every team's fans hopes that their team's front office does a better, more thorough job of vetting QB prospects than an average NFL team would do. Unfortunately, there's no objective reason to believe the Bills' front office does an above-average job of evaluating QB prospects.

 

Manuel fits the profile of a standard-issue first round bust. He's got great physical tools, but never established himself as a good pocket passer at the college level. Whenever I see a team use a first round selection on a QB like that, my assumption is that he'll be a bust. I cannot think of a single case where that assumption was later disproved.

 

> What I know for sure is that it is too early in his injury riddled rookie year to make a confident judgment.

 

I wouldn't have taken him in rounds 1 - 3. He just didn't prove enough at the college level. Thus far, he hasn't proven a single thing as a professional that he didn't prove in college.

 

> Whatever assets that Barkley and Nassib have over EJ are negated by their physical limitations.

 

A certain minimum level of physical tools is needed to succeed as a starting QB. It's quite possible Barkley's arm strength falls below that minimum threshold. But if a QB has a decent set of physical tools--such as those possessed by Trent Edwards for example--then that's good enough. Sure, more physical gifts are always better. But if a QB has decent physical tools, the course of his NFL career will be determined mostly by his accuracy, mental bandwidth, and other non-physical attributes.

 

> Let me also add that the Bills will not be a playoff team nexr year no matter how much EJ improves.

 

I disagree. Look at the Packers team that Aaron Rodgers carried to a Super Bowl win. After accounting for their injuries, do you really think they had that much more talent than we could have after the 2014 offseason and draft? If Manuel became the next Aaron Rodgers, the Bills would be highly likely to go to the playoffs. With a good draft in 2014, we might even be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

 

The problem with all this is that Manuel isn't the next Aaron Rodgers. Or anything remotely close.