Thank You For Not Coaching

[Billshank Redemption]

I have been reading a lot of Grantland because the writing on ESPN is garbage and even though the writing on Grantland is incredibly biased toward Boston sports, the writing style is unique and there is some great commentary. Bill Barnwell does a weekly segment called "Thank You for Not Coaching" which talks about boneheaded moves H.C's make over the weekend. He uses stats and analytics to back up his commentary.

 

Here is what he had to say about Marrone this week:

 

On the Graham Challenge

"Doug Marrone's high-reward challenge against the Chiefs. I'll get to teams employing David strategies in a moment, but I really liked Marrone's throw of the challenge flag on a long would-be catch by Marquise Goodwin on second down with 6:58 left to go in a 20-13 game. The catch was one of those rare plays in which a head coach has to make a judgment call; the pass was ruled incomplete on the field, but there was just enough on replay to suggest that Goodwin had caught the pass.

It's worth a challenge — even risking a timeout in a close game — because the potential reward is so enormous. The catch would have advanced the ball from Buffalo's 6-yard line to midfield, providing a dramatic field-position shift while dramatically improving Buffalo's chances of scoring on the possession. Given that the Bills were starting Jeff Tuel against the virulent Chiefs defense, it might have been Buffalo's last chance at a big play. The Advanced NFL Stats win probability calculator estimates that a successful challenge would have increased Buffalo's chances of winning from 8 percent to 23 percent. I think that underestimates the shift, given Kansas City's defense. Marrone ultimately did not win the challenge, but it was a shot worth the risk."

 

"I think Marrone has done a fantastic job in Buffalo so far, considering that he has played the league's second-toughest schedule and had to line up four starting quarterbacks in four months because of injuries. My only beef with Marrone? The halftime draws. On Sunday, he began a drive with 35 seconds left in the first half and the ball on his own 21-yard line by handing the ball to the already-injured C.J. Spiller, who went for two huge yards before the Bills gave up and ran to the locker room for halftime. Does Spiller really need the work? Is he going to forget how to run a draw?"

 

Anyway I thought it was interesting to post seeing as many on here have been very negative on Marrone lately and I think it has had a lot more to do with the revolving door at QB than anything.

http://www.grantland...coaching-week-9

Edited November 5, 2013 by Billshank Redemption

[3rdand12]

Thanks Billshank.

It's nice to hear some praise and perspective at the same time.

well done and appreciate the post

[dayman]

I'm actually pretty satisfied with Marrone at the moment. And I'm a natural hater, as well as a guy who hated Marrone at first.

 

There are some things that have sucked ... but we don't look terrible and the QB situation gives him a valid excuse imo for losing some of the close games (all games we are in being close).

[SmokinES3]

Not a terrible article IMO. Definitely better than ESPN's drivel. I'm new so I'm guessing it's been discussed ad nauseum but I hated the Spiller run before the half myself. He had already been limping and hobbling around more than once. I understand the logic, possibly break a big one, but still... Considering the QB situation I've been satisfied with the job Marrone has done overall. Still, much to learn for him and Hackett though.

[Dennis in NC]

Thanks for this post. It's nice to see encouraging words from someone who does real analysis on the games.

 

I really like Marrone, too, but have a beef with those Spiller-up-the-middle plays.

 

Why not put Ronnie Wingo in there occasionally when RBs #1 and #2 are hobbled? Hand it to Frank Summers for heaven's sake.

[QB Bills]

How about the challenge on a fumble that they didn't even recover? Or the challenge on a play that wasn't reviewable?

 

Neither of which the great buffalo media asked him about.

 

Not saying he's done a bad job, but there's definitely room for improvement. Especially on throwing the red flag.

[Billshank Redemption]

I also thought this week was Hacketts best game of the season. He certainly put Tuel in position to succeed and without that pick 6 I think he would've.

[swnybillsfan]

i really like marrone and i have not thought that hackett is in over his head or calling poor games overall, but i would love to see these guys try a shot or two before halftime rather than just killing the clock and going in the locker room and waiting for the second half.

[PJBrown7]

I'm still pissed about that call. How many times does a receiver have to bounce off the ground with possession of the ball for it to count? And the closest ref called it a catch and the head ref 30 yards away over ruled it thus shifting the burden of proof on the challenge. ^%%$#&*&(*() !!!!

 

Marrone made a great challenge. Anyone not thinking we have a winner there is delusional.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

How about the challenge on a fumble that they didn't even recover? Or the challenge on a play that wasn't reviewable?

 

Neither of which the great buffalo media asked him about.

 

Not saying he's done a bad job, but there's definitely room for improvement. Especially on throwing the red flag.

 

I think Marrone would concur, as well. He said he needed to get better on challenges.

 

The challenge last Sunday was frustrating. On one hand, you have to challenge it, as the article said. On the other hand, there was almost zero percent chance they would reverse, given the ambiguities of the rule and the incompetence of Ron Winter.

[Gray Beard]

I like the mention of the dumb idea of using Spiller on a draw right before halftime. I was wondering what that was all about when it happened. He was already limping and the play had about 0.001% chance of success, especially since Spiller wasn't able to play with nearly his normal amount of explosiveness. Why put Spiller in harm's way for such a useless attempt?

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I like the mention of the dumb idea of using Spiller on a draw right before halftime. I was wondering what that was all about when it happened. He was already limping and the play had about 0.001% chance of success, especially since Spiller wasn't able to play with nearly his normal amount of explosiveness. Why put Spiller in harm's way for such a useless attempt?

 

I agree.

 

The better coaching advice too is on that last kickoff before the half, tell your return guy to run in out no matter what--i.e., even if you are back peddaling at the 109-yard point. Odds are better you can get a big return than having a gimpy Spiller try to take a handoff 80 yards.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Hey even Jerry Sullivan praised him today and Hackett too. Things must be looking up.

[YoloinOhio]

I like this part too:

There were a number of underdogs that stretched their chances by trying to make their own luck and create their own opportunities this week. Only one actually finished with a victory, but each of them came closer than most would have expected, thanks in part to their aggressiveness.

Buffalo was in line for a shocking victory over the undefeated Chiefs, but the 10-plus-point swing that resulted from Tuel's pick-six on the Kansas City goal line was enough to turn things in Kansas City's favor. This game was close until the very end despite the score, but the Bills helped make it interesting by trying to create big plays. I don't know that Tuel is my idea of a read-option quarterback, but there he was running the zone-read at home against the Chiefs on Sunday. The Bills also went for it against the conservative Chiefs on fourth down, with a fourth-and-2 attempt in no-man's-land producing a bomb to an open T.J. Graham that fell incomplete. (A better throw would have yielded a touchdown.) At the very least, the Bills might have made Mercury Morris fetch a bottle of champagne. That's something.

 

And this just made me laugh:

Worst Calls of Week 9:

1. The Packers save their timeouts for another day. I really am not sure what Mike McCarthy was thinking about late in the fourth quarter of this game against the Bears. Whether it's too soon to call Matt Flynn without seeming like he's desperate? If he still has Brett Favre's number in some flip phone from 2006?

 

Hey even Jerry Sullivan praised him today and Hackett too. Things must be looking up.

I understand people saying things have not changed because both teams, 2012 and 2013, were 3-6 at some point. But it is not the same. Not in any way that I can think of. The "only wins matter" crowd has a point but only if you are comparing records. No one is happy with the 3-6 record. The two teams are vastly different. The record is the same after 9 games. There are 7 games left.

[buffalover4life]

The draw with spiller was a good call. If he broke a big play we could call a time out. its better than risking something with jeff fuel throwing the ball.

[NoSaint]

The draw is called, and to spiller, because if he busts a 30 yard run you can go with a shot to score, but it's pretty close to totally safe as opposed to a pass that could have a qb fumble, pick etc...

[ganesh]

Not a terrible article IMO. Definitely better than ESPN's drivel. I'm new so I'm guessing it's been discussed ad nauseum but I hated the Spiller run before the half myself. He had already been limping and hobbling around more than once. I understand the logic, possibly break a big one, but still... Considering the QB situation I've been satisfied with the job Marrone has done overall. Still, much to learn for him and Hackett though.

 

The other before-half minor irritants is not bringing the ball out on the Kick return. Also, I wish Marrone would ice kickers in the waning moments of the game, especially when they are kicking beyond 40+ yards.

 

The draw with spiller was a good call. If he broke a big play we could call a time out. its better than risking something with jeff fuel throwing the ball.

+1

[KikO M G]

I like the mention of the dumb idea of using Spiller on a draw right before halftime. I was wondering what that was all about when it happened. He was already limping and the play had about 0.001% chance of success, especially since Spiller wasn't able to play with nearly his normal amount of explosiveness. Why put Spiller in harm's way for such a useless attempt?

 

He didn't want a turnover, he had the lead, and was hoping maybe Spiller would break free and score. Wish he had called conservative plays like that in the second half as well.

[mannc]

 

 

Also, I wish Marrone would ice kickers in the waning moments of the game, especially when they are kicking beyond 40+ yards.

 

 

+1

Icing the kicker has been statistically proven to be a worthless endeavor. In other words, it doesn't work. It is what crappy coaches do to make it look like they are big thinkers.

[NoSaint]

Icing the kicker has been statistically proven to be a worthless endeavor. In other words, it doesn't work. It is what crappy coaches do to make it look like they are big thinkers.

 

id be curious if theres any change in percentage if its a coach that normally doesnt doit actually surprising the kicker who thinks its not going to happen, for instance. or if the analytics will show some kickers more prone to flubbing it while others appreciate the practice kick(very possible, though samples are likely too small for individual kickers).

Edited November 6, 2013 by NoSaint