The Bills Have Hired a Director of Analytics

[bowery4]

Are you guys kidding me? Lyons is not NFL ready! He is a project at best. I don't care about his upside. His decision making and accuracy are questionable. This is just the same old Bills. They will waste the next couple of seasons trying to see if Lyons is the guy.

He's gonna need people to work for him, since you're coming in for the game, use what ever contacts you may have gotten, and see if you can get a one on one interview with Lyons.

This^ Good Luck!

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

This is a good thing as long as Marrone views it as only one piece of the puzzle when it comes to game management. I'm a firm believer that you can have say 14:00 on the clock, 4th and 5 on the opponent's 20, and on some days the right call is to go for it and other days the right call is to take 3. If you're at home against Miami and both sides of the ball are on their game, that's different than being at New Orleans and needing to put up as many points as you can, when you can. Is the quarterback playing well? Are we stopping the run? Where is the current momentum of the game and if I go for it how would the momentum change if we get the touchdown, or if we turn it over. etc.

 

I love stats and figures as much as the next science nerd but when you're leading a group of human beings, I think there will always be a place for 'gut calls.'

 

I do suspect Marrone gets it as he seemed to go for it against Cincinnati and then take a field goal at Miami in somewhat similar situations.

[eball]

Everyone should do him/herself a favor and listen to Howard Simon's interview with Marrone this morning on WGR. I don't have the link, but go to wgr550.com and you can find it easily. At around the 19:30 minute mark or so Simon starts asking Marrone about analytics, and I think Marrone does a very good job of explaining how he views it. FWIW, he says he's been heavily into analytics for the past 6-7 years.

[26CornerBlitz]

Everyone should do him/herself a favor and listen to Howard Simon's interview with Marrone this morning on WGR. I don't have the link, but go to wgr550.com and you can find it easily. At around the 19:30 minute mark or so Simon starts asking Marrone about analytics, and I think Marrone does a very good job of explaining how he views it. FWIW, he says he's been heavily into analytics for the past 6-7 years.

 

It's already linked in post 160 of this thread. Very insightful and interesting discussion.

[NoSaint]

Everyone should do him/herself a favor and listen to Howard Simon's interview with Marrone this morning on WGR. I don't have the link, but go to wgr550.com and you can find it easily. At around the 19:30 minute mark or so Simon starts asking Marrone about analytics, and I think Marrone does a very good job of explaining how he views it. FWIW, he says he's been heavily into analytics for the past 6-7 years.

 

makes sense - the saints tend to be pretty ahead of the curve on technology and studying the game to better decision making. with him and SP joining forces about 6-7 years ago.... it adds up.

[PS 56]

"Stats are for losers."

- Bill Belichick

and that is why the Patriots have an analytics dept.

[Jim in Anchorage]

I can't imagine a more boring job.

[Jauronimo]

For those who didn't or can't listen to the interview, Marrone's discussion of how analytics will be used primarily revolved around situational tendencies of opponents and how that information shapes game planning and play calling.

 

Examples

-Play Calling Ex: Opponent plays cover 2 on 70% of 3rd downs. Give the QB 3 plays to beat cover 2 and one play to beat cover 1.

Ex: Opponent brings pressure on 60% of 3rd downs, hasn't yet blitzed and its the 3rd quarter. Expect pressure.

 

-Challenges. (Odds of success on certain types of challenges.) Ex: challenging the spot loses X% of the time. Poor odds of over turning call on field. Save the challenge.

[Leelee Phoenix]

I love stats and figures as much as the next science nerd but when you're leading a group of human beings, I think there will always be a place for 'gut calls.'

 

And every 'analytic person' knows and understands that, there's various other game situations to consider (team you're playing, your talent, quality play to use, if your talent can run that quality play, etc...). There's this disconnect that the public thinks we're like computers.

 

Everyone should do him/herself a favor and listen to Howard Simon's interview with Marrone this morning on WGR. I don't have the link, but go to wgr550.com and you can find it easily. At around the 19:30 minute mark or so Simon starts asking Marrone about analytics, and I think Marrone does a very good job of explaining how he views it. FWIW, he says he's been heavily into analytics for the past 6-7 years.

Which is why I don't give a darn about this hire. If Marrone actually subscribes to 'analytics' like he says, then we have no chance since he's as conservative and old school as any coach today.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Leelee Phoenix

[thewildrabbit]

NFN but this team doesn't need a guy giving a worksheet to the coaches at game time that tells them what script to run at any given situation. They need a QB who is a Peyton Manning clone behind center reading the defense, and having the wherewithal to understand what he sees the defense about to do and counters it like Manning does so often. Ted Marchibroda taught Jim Kelly to call his own plays at the line. Tom Moore taught Peyton Manning to call his own plays.

 

They need a head coach like Bill Belchick who watches endless amounts of film on his opponents so he knows what tendencies to expect from an opponent.

 

In terms of an actual "moneyball" person for an NFL team who will make judgement calls on which players to draft or bring in for free agency based on statistics, analytic's is perhaps the most moronic thing I've ever heard of doing in football. Completely different sport, MLBaseball is a sport where players play both offense and defense. Where you have success if you hit 3 out of 10 at bats. Try getting 3 out of 10 in anything on a football field and see where you end up. Its not just about the physical stats either, try reading a stat sheet on a players effort, leadership, attitude, football intelligence, and heart.

 

 

I suppose if you don't want to hire top NFL experienced coaches ...it makes sense to do something different. IMO the money would be better spent if Russ Brandon were to hire a voodoo priestess, exorcist instead to take the frickin curse off this franchise.

[Jauronimo]

NFN but this team doesn't need a guy giving a worksheet to the coaches at game time that tells them what script to run at any given situation. They need a QB who is a Peyton Manning clone behind center reading the defense, and having the wherewithal to understand what he sees the defense about to do and counters it like Manning does so often. Ted Marchibroda taught Jim Kelly to call his own plays at the line. Tom Moore taught Peyton Manning to call his own plays.

 

They need a head coach like Bill Belchick who watches endless amounts of film on his opponents so he knows what tendencies to expect from an opponent.

 

In terms of an actual "moneyball" person for an NFL team who will make judgement calls on which players to draft or bring in for free agency based on statistics, analytic's is perhaps the most moronic thing I've ever heard of doing in football. Completely different sport, MLBaseball is a sport where players play both offense and defense. Where you have success if you hit 3 out of 10 at bats. Try getting 3 out of 10 in anything on a football field and see where you end up. Its not just about the physical stats either, try reading a stat sheet on a players effort, leadership, attitude, football intelligence, and heart.

 

 

I suppose if you don't want to hire top NFL experienced coaches ...it makes sense to do something different. IMO the money would be better spent if Russ Brandon were to hire a voodoo priestess, exorcist instead to take the frickin curse off this franchise.

What if I were to tell you that the best and most successful coaches in the league are already using football analytics as another tool to guide decision making and win games?

 

As much as I'm amused by the chorus of simple folk who cry about how "we don't need no nerds with fancy thinkin' machines and high flying diplomas from some college er' something to throw a spiral to an open man who believes in Jesus and puts his pants on one leg at a time like Joe Gibbs did and that other fella who wore a hat all the time. He put his pants on one leg at a time. Never did win a super bowl though, but thats beside the point. Did Vince Lombardi use computatical robots and super caluclators to win 5 championships??? I didn't think so!", its getting old.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Jauronimo

[NoSaint]

 

What if I were to tell you that the best and most successful coaches in the league are already using football analytics as another tool to guide decision making and win games?

 

and in fact that is how they become the best and most successful and experienced coaches that have guts worth trusting. their gut reaction is to think back to what they learned studying the analysis of the opponent, just like it should be.

 

As much as I'm amused by the chorus of simple folk who cry about how "we don't need no nerds with fancy thinkin' machines and high flying diplomas from some college er' something to throw a spiral to an open man who believes in Jesus and puts his pants on one leg at a time like Joe Gibbs did and that other fella who wore a hat all the time. He put his pants on one leg at a time. Never did win a super bowl though, but thats beside the point. Did Vince Lombardi use computatical robots and super caluclators to win 5 championships??? I didn't think so!", its getting old.

 

yea i dont get why anyone would think that this is a bad thing conceptually. we may not properly execute it, but out studying and being more prepared than our opponents seems to be a negative for a lot of people (especially odd that many of the same HATED chan and buddy for being too old school)

[thewildrabbit]

What if I were to tell you that the best and most successful coaches in the league are already using football analytics as another tool to guide decision making and win games?

 

As much as I'm amused by the chorus of simple folk who cry about how "we don't need no nerds with fancy thinkin' machines and high flying diplomas from some college er' something to throw a spiral to an open man who believes in Jesus and puts his pants on one leg at a time like Joe Gibbs did and that other fella who wore a hat all the time. He put his pants on one leg at a time. Never did win a super bowl though, but thats beside the point. Did Vince Lombardi use computatical robots and super caluclators to win 5 championships??? I didn't think so!", its getting old.

and in fact that is how they become the best and most successful and experienced coaches that have guts worth trusting. their gut reaction is to think back to what they learned studying the analysis of the opponent, just like it should be.

 

 

 

yea i dont get why anyone would think that this is a bad thing conceptually. we may not properly execute it, but out studying and being more prepared than our opponents seems to be a negative for a lot of people (especially odd that many of the same HATED chan and buddy for being too old school)

In case you both missed it

I suppose if you don't want to hire top NFL experienced coaches...

You could have NASA scientists running the Buffalo Bills anayltic's department with a Cray XT5-HE, and it won't mean a darn thing without good coaching. Edited November 1, 2013 by FeartheLosing

[Jauronimo]

and in fact that is how they become the best and most successful and experienced coaches that have guts worth trusting. their gut reaction is to think back to what they learned studying the analysis of the opponent, just like it should be.

 

 

 

yea i dont get why anyone would think that this is a bad thing conceptually. we may not properly execute it, but out studying and being more prepared than our opponents seems to be a negative for a lot of people (especially odd that many of the same HATED chan and buddy for being too old school)

The fear and mistrust of technology, statistics and the general rules of mathematics being displayed here is mind boggling. Apparently football is such a complicated animal that the rules that govern the rest of the universe have no !@#$ing bearing on a game played by children. Using all information available to guide decision making is folly in football, but optimal in every facet of life. Holy !@#$!

 

Gut decisions are fine as they reflect intuition. What better way to develop and fine tune your intuition than to have already studied trends and tendencies?

 

I do remember the criticism here for Chan and Buddy and their old school unsophisticated methods. I just saw someone criticizing Marrone for being old school too since hes been using analytics for 6 or 7 years "just like every body else". Unbelievable.

In case you both missed it

I suppose I addressed that point with the first sentence of my post. The best coaches are already using analytics. What don't you understand?

Edited November 1, 2013 by Jauronimo

[MRW]

In case you both missed it

So... your recommended alternative to an analytics guy is to clone Peyton Manning and hire top NFL coaches? It's a wonder no one else has ever thought of this approach!

[NoSaint]

 

The fear and mistrust of technology, statistics and the general rules of mathematics being displayed here is mind boggling. Apparently football is such a complicated animal that the rules that govern the rest of the universe have no !@#$ing bearing on a game played by children. Using all information available to guide decision making is folly in football, but optimal in every facet of life. Holy !@#$!

 

Gut decisions are fine as they reflect intuition. What better way to develop and fine tune your intuition than to have already studied trends and tendencies?

 

I do remember the criticism here for Chan and Buddy and their old school unsophisticated methods. I just saw someone criticizing Marrone for being old school too since hes been using analytics for 6 or 7 years "just like every body else". Unbelievable.

 

I suppose I addressed that point with the first sentence of my post. The best coaches are already using analytics. What don't you understand?

 

for some reason many also see it as an either/or situation. that a coach and the technology somehow dont coexist - it seems really easy to accept it as "find a great coach and outfit the organization with awesome tools for him to do even better"

[thewildrabbit]

So... your recommended alternative to an analytics guy is to clone Peyton Manning and hire top NFL coaches? It's a wonder no one else has ever thought of this approach!

Spending the money on top coaches would be the correct approach IMO. You know, sorta like Bill Cowher over Chan Gailey.

 

I get that every NFL team has a dept that handles anayltic's, statistics. Just like every HC has a cheat sheet of what plays to run in any given situation. I'm saying is this new hire for the Bills won't mean anything if Marrone, and his staff doesn't get it done.

[NoSaint]

Spending the money on top coaches would be the correct approach IMO. You know, sorta like Bill Cowher over Chan Gailey.

 

I get that every NFL team has a dept that handles anayltic's, statistics. Just like every HC has a cheat sheet of what plays to run in any given situation. I'm saying is this new hire for the Bills won't mean anything if Marrone, and his staff doesn't get it done.

 

obviously. you need to hire good players, coaches, analysts, scouts and more.... when you get those all operating at a high level together you get dynasties.

 

simply having warm bodies doesnt mean success and no ones arguing that this hire means instantly vaulting into contention. could be said just as easily about ej, or whaley. if cornerstone pieces fail, franchises collapse and start to rebuild again.

Edited November 1, 2013 by NoSaint

[Jauronimo]

Spending the money on top coaches would be the correct approach IMO. You know, sorta like Bill Cowher over Chan Gailey.

 

I get that every NFL team has a dept that handles anayltic's, statistics. Just like every HC has a cheat sheet of what plays to run in any given situation. I'm saying is this new hire for the Bills won't mean anything if Marrone, and his staff doesn't get it done.

This new hire was brought in to HELP Marrone get it done. Are you telling me that coaches and QBs make great analytics departments? Do you have any understanding of basic causality?

Edited November 1, 2013 by Jauronimo

[MRW]

Spending the money on top coaches would be the correct approach IMO. You know, sorta like Bill Cowher over Chan Gailey.

 

I get that every NFL team has a dept that handles anayltic's, statistics. Just like every HC has a cheat sheet of what plays to run in any given situation. I'm saying is this new hire for the Bills won't mean anything if Marrone, and his staff doesn't get it done.

Granted that it comes down to Marrone and what he makes of the info, but who are you arguing against by saying that? I think everyone would agree that all the best info in the world is useless if you don't apply it intelligently. You seem to be approaching this as if the organization has hired this guy to overrule Marrone and start making in-game decisions for him based on computer models.