C.Biscuit97 Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 From this morning's article in the News -- Lyons is a long-time Bills ST holder and "has been analyzing football as a hobby for years." I think it's great that a smart, experienced analytics expert who is also a Bills fan is the guy pegged for the job -- supposedly out of about 1000 applicants. It's actually kinda of inspriational. Good for him. Mel Kiper never played or coached football on any level and just went to community college. Now (for some reason), folks act like he is Hesus around draft time. I respect anyone who can turn a hobby into a job. Odds are, he's probably making less doing this than working at Xerox. How exactly did Brandon emphasize Lyons' WNY roots, other than mentioning it in response to a question? How is this hire engaging in cronyism? Brandon stated that he first met Lyons when he interviewed for the position. Your posts sound like sour grapes. Did you submit a resume?
NoSaint Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 (edited) Exactly. All thing equal, I would go with the guy who is knowledgeable and passionate about the team. I wouldn't be surprised if he came into the interview and wowed everyone with a lot of bills-specific stuff. To me being a fan instead of an unbiased cold hard fact guy is a negative. That's not to say he can't separate the two or is the type that it would cause trouble.... but in this position I kind of want someone detached from any type of emotional pull and just focused on the data. I want his models to be the most impressive of the group, not his working knowledge of our team history. Still could be him 100% but I wouldn't say fan hood is always a good thing. It does make for a cool story if he succeeds though. (Trying to discuss the dynamic without projecting on to a guy I know little to nothing about) Edited October 31, 2013 by NoSaint
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 To me being a fan instead of an unbiased cold hard fact guy is a negative. That's not to say he can't separate the two or is the type that it would cause trouble.... but in this position I kind of want someone detached from any type of emotional pull and just focused on the data. Still could be him 100% but I wouldn't say fan hood is always a good thing. It does make for a cool story if he succeeds though. (Trying to discuss the dynamic without projecting on to a guy I know little to nothing about) Isn't that the thing about analytics though? It should just be about the numbers and you really can't put your opinion into it. Now as I posted the Gabbert article where they had their guy justify him as a starter based on analytics, that is a huge negative. But if it on stuff like when to go for it on 4th and short or evaluating weaknesses' on an opposing team, it should just be about numbers and percentages.
Canadian Bills Fan Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 I hope it all works out. Are there any other NFL teams that use analytics at the present time? Or are the Bills the only ones? CBF
eball Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 To me being a fan instead of an unbiased cold hard fact guy is a negative. That's not to say he can't separate the two or is the type that it would cause trouble.... but in this position I kind of want someone detached from any type of emotional pull and just focused on the data. I want his models to be the most impressive of the group, not his working knowledge of our team history. Still could be him 100% but I wouldn't say fan hood is always a good thing. It does make for a cool story if he succeeds though. (Trying to discuss the dynamic without projecting on to a guy I know little to nothing about) Data is data. I just don't see a negative in the fact Lyons also *wants* the Bills to win. Shouldn't every employee have a vested interest in his/her company succeeding?
BuffaloBillsForever Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 (edited) The success of the analytics department will not hinge solely on Lyons. It's how good and innovative the staff he surrounds himself with. This isn't a one person job. You need a specialized team and they pretty much do all the work. I'm sure he won't be the only individual creating models or even analzying them. You also have to remember that analytics is only a tool and Lyons, Brandon, Marrone will be the ones to decide what models, numbers and percentages are relevent. Bias isn't an issue as Lyons doesn't have the final say. Think of Lyons as an advisor of the interpreted data to the brain trust at One Bills Drive. Edited October 31, 2013 by BuffaloBillsForever
hondo in seattle Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 Exactly. All thing equal, I would go with the guy who is knowledgeable and passionate about the team. I wouldn't be surprised if he came into the interview and wowed everyone with a lot of bills-specific stuff. Given that he does analytics as a hobby, it wouldn't surprise me that he offered some insight into the Bills that impressed Brandon. While the other candidates talked notionally, Lyons was able to state things in the interview that were potentially useful to the club. Also, I think it's fair to say that not all great players come from Div I powerhouses nor do all great analytics guys come from Big Three consulting firms. I can't see - given the paucity of the information we have right now - how any of us can yet determine whether or not this is a good hire. I'll wait and see.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 To me being a fan instead of an unbiased cold hard fact guy is a negative. That's not to say he can't separate the two or is the type that it would cause trouble.... but in this position I kind of want someone detached from any type of emotional pull and just focused on the data. I want his models to be the most impressive of the group, not his working knowledge of our team history. Still could be him 100% but I wouldn't say fan hood is always a good thing. It does make for a cool story if he succeeds though. (Trying to discuss the dynamic without projecting on to a guy I know little to nothing about) It's an interesting debate. I would argue that having that knowledge of team history would be helpful from an analytical standpoint. In a certain sense, he can probably more quickly identify what the team has done correctly or incorrectly in the past, and perhaps reinvent the wheel less.
NoSaint Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 Isn't that the thing about analytics though? It should just be about the numbers and you really can't put your opinion into it. Now as I posted the Gabbert article where they had their guy justify him as a starter based on analytics, that is a huge negative. But if it on stuff like when to go for it on 4th and short or evaluating weaknesses' on an opposing team, it should just be about numbers and percentages. If you come into the situation with biases - you can make numbers say a lot of things. If as a fan he were to think the team should be doing something it's easy to even accidentally build a model that skews that direction, I guess is what I was getting at. I'd rather a guy that knows RB22 and not Freddie Jackson - that isn't feeling the pressure of his favorite team possibly moving - if that makes some sense That said, he could very well be 100% capable of being that guy- just kind of discussing the idea of hiring fans. The passion for the team probably does more for a guy in suite sales than analytics as far as boosting performance.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 Given that he does analytics as a hobby, it wouldn't surprise me that he offered some insight into the Bills that impressed Brandon. While the other candidates talked notionally, Lyons was able to state things in the interview that were potentially useful to the club. Brandon: "Nice to meet you, Mr. Lyons." Lyons: "Let's cut to the chase. Jonathon Linton was the best RB in team history, and I have 10,000 lines of data to show you why."
eball Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 If you come into the situation with biases - you can make numbers say a lot of things. If as a fan he were to think the team should be doing something it's easy to even accidentally build a model that skews that direction, I guess is what I was getting at. I'd rather a guy that knows RB22 and not Freddie Jackson - that isn't feeling the pressure of his favorite team possibly moving - if that makes some sense That said, he could very well be 100% capable of being that guy- just kind of discussing the idea of hiring fans. The passion for the team probably does more for a guy in suite sales than analytics as far as boosting performance. It's funny for me to say this amid a discussion about analytics....but I believe you're over-thinking it.
NoSaint Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 (edited) It's an interesting debate. I would argue that having that knowledge of team history would be helpful from an analytical standpoint. In a certain sense, he can probably more quickly identify what the team has done correctly or incorrectly in the past, and perhaps reinvent the wheel less. I guess its a very case by case situation where the individual matters a lot. It's funny for me to say this amid a discussion about analytics....but I believe you're over-thinking it. Almost certainly - really just popped in my head when I read all things equal it's better he's a fan comments. Got me wondering about the topic - the old does being so interested in the team make me more qualified for a dream job type of situation -- but was trying to be sure not to knock the hire with my curiosities either Edited October 31, 2013 by NoSaint
chris heff Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 Are you guys kidding me? Lyons is not NFL ready! He is a project at best. I don't care about his upside. His decision making and accuracy are questionable. This is just the same old Bills. They will waste the next couple of seasons trying to see if Lyons is the guy.
Rockee96 Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 By the way, didn't some dude post in here several months ago, inquiring about getting a job in the then-mythogical analytics department? Wonder if he can now make that dream a reality. Hi, that was me...I applied through the help of somebody on this board - thank you (you know who you are)...But I didn't get it - I wished I did....I did my best though...He was more of a pure data analyst than me. A bit dissapointed...but hey, I'll be flying over to Buffalo tomorrow for the KC Game. Go Bills!
Just Jack Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 Hi, that was me...I applied through the help of somebody on this board - thank you (you know who you are)...But I didn't get it - I wished I did....I did my best though...He was more of a pure data analyst than me. A bit dissapointed...but hey, I'll be flying over to Buffalo tomorrow for the KC Game. Go Bills! He's gonna need people to work for him, since you're coming in for the game, use what ever contacts you may have gotten, and see if you can get a one on one interview with Lyons.
Dan Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 It's an interesting debate. I would argue that having that knowledge of team history would be helpful from an analytical standpoint. In a certain sense, he can probably more quickly identify what the team has done correctly or incorrectly in the past, and perhaps reinvent the wheel less. Where his historical knowledge as a fan and ardent follower of the Bills could most likely gie him an advantage is in validating any models or data he or the team develop. As we all know, statistics and numbers can be developed to support just about any argument. The key, therefore, is developing the right numbers to show/predict reality. Because he likely has an intimate knowledge of the real workd success of past players/games/decisions, it might be easier and more efficient to validate any statistics he develops. For example, it's easy to say let's use x, y, and z to gauge the success of a player, draft pick, whatever; but does that actually translate to real world success. Because he knows our history, perhaps he's already ahead of the game in knowing which numbers are better? The primary reason to use analytics, for me, goes well beyond when to punt and when to go for a 1st down. It's how do you identify the next Fred Jackson from all these small, unheralded schools? The next Stevie Johnson? Also, to better understand what are other teams likely drafting strategies. Also, I can see it used in developing better game plans. How do you accurately predict an opponents tendencies taking into account the current game situations, what they'll be doingbased on your moves and players? Not just 80% of the time they run on 3rd and 2. In other words, fairly high level data analysis that results in predictive models that more often are correct. Not to mention how to maximize profit by making parking spaces 5inches shorter so you can squeeze in 2 extra spots per row. And decreasing beer sizes by 5% will yield 10% more profit without people noticing... type crap.
brucethomas34 Posted October 31, 2013 Posted October 31, 2013 @buffalobills #Bills have hired a Director of Analytics, per @RussBrandon Bills Hire Analytics Man: Russ Brandon announced on WGR this morning that the team has hired Mike Lyons to be the director of the new analytics departments. He is a Western New York native with 20 years of analytics experience at Xerox. He will be involved in the football department and everything that has a probability factor along with dealing with salary cap issues. just win, don't really care how it happens
drinkTHEkoolaid Posted November 1, 2013 Posted November 1, 2013 Hi, that was me...I applied through the help of somebody on this board - thank you (you know who you are)...But I didn't get it - I wished I did....I did my best though...He was more of a pure data analyst than me. A bit dissapointed...but hey, I'll be flying over to Buffalo tomorrow for the KC Game. Go Bills! That's pretty cool to at least be considered
San Jose Bills Fan Posted November 1, 2013 Posted November 1, 2013 (edited) I seldom read the Buffalo News but made an exception for this story. Here's an excerpt from Sully's column (sorry if someone already excerpted this. It seems to address many of the comments made in this topic): Analytics isn't an easy thing to define. When I asked Chiefs coach Andy Reid on Wednesday's conference call what his analytics people do, he said, “They do analytical things, how's that?” NFL teams are notoriously secretive about their methods, perhaps because they're so good at copying one another. Brandon was reluctant to get into too many specifics. But it's not as if football coaches haven't been analyzing data since the leather helmet days. More and more, though, teams are looking for an advantage. Everything in the NFL is getting more precise: Replays, strategies for fourth downs, the rate of recovery from injury, preparing for the draft. Some teams (the Patriots, not surprisingly) entered the modern age sooner than others. Eventually, Lyons will examine every aspect of the operation, including ticket sales, stadium operations, the works. Brandon wants everyone in the organization to be smarter. Also this: It took 10 months and sifting through 1,000 resumes. The new guy better be off the charts. Brandon raised the fans' hopes when he promised “robust analytics” on New Year's. He knew BillsVet was skeptical, but he felt it was too crucial a hire to rush. “I told people internally, 'We'll make the decision when we're ready to make the decision',” Brandon said. “I knew I was taking a lot of heat. I didn't care about that. I wanted to bring in the best person possible, and I think Mike's the guy.” Edited November 1, 2013 by San Jose Bills Fan
26CornerBlitz Posted November 1, 2013 Author Posted November 1, 2013 11/1 Doug Marrone joins the Howard Simon show: http://audio.wgr550.com/hosting/media/wgr550/1268190/111-marrone-friday.mp3?rhidownloadlink=true Doug Marrone talks analytics beginning at 12:50 into the interview.
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