The Bills Have Hired a Director of Analytics

[boyst]

Read the entire thread and have only one thought. I'll believe it when I see it. When we go for it on 4th and 3 at our own 46 in the second qtr leading by 4... I'll believe analytics are a factor.

[Jauronimo]

Read the entire thread and have only one thought. I'll believe it when I see it. When we go for it on 4th and 3 at our own 46 in the second qtr leading by 4... I'll believe analytics are a factor.

I think if thats how you define the impact of analytics then you may be waiting for quite a while for "proof".

[BuffaloBill]

 

 

You're using revenue as a metric? You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. McKinsey is a management consulting firm which is a huge feeder for football franchises.

 

The vast majority of Xerox's revenue comes from processing services, IT outsourcing, document management and, yes, printers. Its consultancy is second-rate; as an IT consultancy, it is far behind firms like Accenture, Booz, and Deloitte.

 

I know some people in the Cleveland Browns front office- another rust belt city- and they hire directly from firms like Bain- a legitimate top consultancy- or economics departments from places like UChicago.

 

This is a second-rate hire. Why are you defending it?

 

Where do you get your data substantiating the claim that McKinsey is a feeder for the NFL? I call BS on this. Have you ever hired anyone who does analytics or who has worked for a consultancy like McKinsey? I have and you don't hire just on the name at the front of the building. There are a ton of very capable and smart analysts working for places other than the major consultants. Add to this that Buffalo is not exactly the top destination for many. So you thing some hot shot from Bain is just drooling for this job? Probably not.

[Dibs]

I think if thats how you define the impact of analytics then you may be waiting for quite a while for "proof".

 

Yep. Likely the only proof we will ever get is when there is a direct statement from the Coaches/HO pointing it out.

 

I can see that happening though. Marrone said that he was going to be spending a lot of time this week on challenging plays(throwing the red flag). Though likely too early for the analytics guy to help, this is the perfect situation where they could be used. They spend the time, crunch the numbers, and come up with high-risk/low-risk categories......while Marrone can devote his time to coaching the players etc.

 

I could easily see Marrone acknowledging the anaytics guys after a successful challenge. Most things though.....as you said....will likely go unnoticed.

[thewildrabbit]

I'll bet he's great at making copies.

 

That money would be better spent on someone with astute football acumen (like hiring ex Bill HC Chuck Knox as a consulant) rather then some number cruncher / bean counter, JMO

[boyst]

 

I think if thats how you define the impact of analytics then you may be waiting for quite a while for "proof".

no doubt but this is not baseball. Analytics vary a lot more and are unpredictable. I want to see the analytics that put Jackson where he is stat wise. And Spiller, too. It seems early in the process. And I don't know how it will work. Is it like PFF? If so then that is only in retrospect.

[BuffaloBill]

no doubt but this is not baseball. Analytics vary a lot more and are unpredictable. I want to see the analytics that put Jackson where he is stat wise. And Spiller, too. It seems early in the process. And I don't know how it will work. Is it like PFF? If so then that is only in retrospect.

 

I think it will help a great deal in football. Down and distance, what plays have better odds of working. I agree that sometimes it is guys like Freddie just finding a way to move the sticks but it can't hurt to know what plays may be better to call in what situations.

[dave mcbride]

You're using revenue as a metric? You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. McKinsey is a management consulting firm which is a huge feeder for football franchises.

 

The vast majority of Xerox's revenue comes from processing services, IT outsourcing, document management and, yes, printers. Its consultancy is second-rate; as an IT consultancy, it is far behind firms like Accenture, Booz, and Deloitte.

 

I know some people in the Cleveland Browns front office- another rust belt city- and they hire directly from firms like Bain- a legitimate top consultancy- or economics departments from places like UChicago.

 

This is a second-rate hire. Why are you defending it?

 

Believe me, I know all about McKinsey. I work in book publishing, and the University of California Press brought them in circa 2000 and received about the worst advice possible. It crippled the press for years and alienated tons of authors. McKinsey has obviously had a lot of success over the years, and I feel kinda bad for singling them out. But they're hardly infallible. We're talking about a company that told AT&T in 1980 that mobile phones had a limited future. And let's not bring up Rajat Gupta.

 

As for Xerox, you may want to check out the brutal competitive landscape they occupy and compare how they've done with other pre-digital age tech firms that have had to make the transition and whose revenue base was in hardware. There's a reasonably strong correlation between sustained revenue growth, success in the global economy, and smart strategy.

 

As for the University of Chicago econ department/business school, where public choice reigns supreme to this day, that's another story. We'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

EDIT: Having said all of this, you and I are both on the same side. Let's hope he succeeds. I get your point about Brandon, but if the guy turns out to be good, he's probably less likely to be looking for greener pastures elsewhere. If nothing else, his academic resume is damn good. Football analytics ain't rocket surgery, so I suspect he'll be fine.

Edited October 31, 2013 by dave mcbride

[Jauronimo]

no doubt but this is not baseball. Analytics vary a lot more and are unpredictable. I want to see the analytics that put Jackson where he is stat wise. And Spiller, too. It seems early in the process. And I don't know how it will work. Is it like PFF? If so then that is only in retrospect.

Since you're all over the place, I'm going to address your post point by point:

 

1. Thank you for clearing up that football is not baseball.

2. Analytics vary a lot more than what? How are they unpredictable?

3. What are you even attempting to say about Jackson and Spiller? How, in your estimation, will analytics be employed to maximize the stats of our RBs?

4. It is early in process according to what we hear from Brandon and Marrone.

5. Its evident that you have no clue how data can and will be used to aid decision making. You should have stopped there.

6. I suppose analytics has parallels with PFF as both rely on statistical analysis, but I do not think our analytics dept is going to be focused on ranking all players based on nebulous metrics.

7. In your experience, is analyzing projected data more accurate or predictive than using the historical record?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I think it's silly to judge a hire based mostly on where a person worked.

 

Lyons might have had very good reasons to work at Xerox.

 

Wouldn't most people want to have a great job in their hometown?

[boyst]

 

Since you're all over the place, I'm going to address your post point by point:

 

1. Thank you for clearing up that football is not baseball.

2. Analytics vary a lot more than what? How are they unpredictable?

3. What are you even attempting to say about Jackson and Spiller? How, in your estimation, will analytics be employed to maximize the stats of our RBs?

4. It is early in process according to what we hear from Brandon and Marrone.

5. Its evident that you have no clue how data can and will be used to aid decision making. You should have stopped there.

6. I suppose analytics has parallels with PFF as both rely on statistical analysis, but I do not think our analytics dept is going to be focused on ranking all players based on nebulous metrics.

7. In your experience, is analyzing projected data more accurate or predictive than using the historical record?

typing while on exercise machine for an hour. I am concise in my splatter on the wall posts.

 

 

Football is not about a simple bit of the ball or strikes/ outs. Its time management. It is down and distance. Score. Opposing schemes. Talent. In baseball you can't change the defense. You can't change the offense. Football had more variables

 

How will you measure CJ going forward vs Jackson? What happens when analytics show we cut Spiller and use Choice as our feature back? The salary cap works different in football.

 

Records and data matter any given Sunday. Baseball is 1 player at a time. 1 player can be off. Have a bad game at second base and that means crap. One guy can go 0fer at bat. It matters none in such a low scoring game. Football relies on 11 guys with the team ad strong as its weakest left guard.

 

Thanks for being concise but I'm going forward to lift things up and put them down.

Edited October 31, 2013 by jboyst62

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Also from the outset, the Bills position on analytics is that it would be (paraphrasing) another tool to layer over our operations."

 

Let's try to keep this in perspective, shall we?

[mart]

Does Bill Belicheck use analytics or does he use his brain, football knowledge and his intuition?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Does Bill Belicheck use analytics or does he use his brain, football knowledge and his intuition?

 

This was touched on earlier in this topic.

[NoSaint]

Does Bill Belicheck use analytics or does he use his brain, football knowledge and his intuition?

 

In fact his brain is full of research from his analytics department. He's among the leaders in developing and using football analytics. Do you not research before making big decisions?

[djp14150]

Guys...his is my career. I'd take a job like this in a heartbeat if it paid a respectable salary.

 

 

Do ths kind of work throughout my career it's just the data that is different.

 

It sounds like his job had multiple components.

 

1. Analyzing the Bills behavior and their tendencies in situations...thus it gives the orchestra a way to be unpredictable. The situations are based on down, distance, where on the field, when in the game, how close the game s, home/road, grass/turf, etc

 

2. Doing a similar analysis f the opponents.

 

3. Come up with metrics in scouting at deciding which player is better based on data at hand. For example post scouting combine they take the data collected and their season/career stats and rank order the players....then the scouts and GM would then use their intangibles and gut to then do some slight adjustments or realize if they may have thought this player was a star by playing at a big time program but this data says otherwise.

 

When it comes to the business side

 

4. Advertising strategy...best way to market the team regionally or nationally. This isn't just getting them to buy tickets but also getting them to. Buy jerseys, hats, jackets, and other stuff like promotions such as a family package of 4 seats plus other added items.

 

5. Return on investment for team marketing, charity events, and community promotions.

 

6. Determine why customers don't renew seasn tickets and figure out what needs to change. Similarly how can you get more people to buy season tickets. Determine different marketing schemes. Why does someone go to 3 games one season but then none the next season.

 

Here is one example, instead of trying to sell season tickets, instead look at selling partial season tickets. The club could market a package of 2 games ( one division, one non, one early season games 1-4, one late season games 4-8 ). You pool people together and offer them a discounted ticket price. How do you market this and when you get a ton of people who sign up for this promo how do you set up an algorithm to look them up as single blocks. Thus you would have 3 groups of 2games assigned to the same seat, and another group assigned to another pair of seats, then a customer who gets one game from one and one from the other. ( ths customer would get 2 non division games). Thus 7 customers buying 2 seat 2 game tickets. In doing this the right way also limits how many singleton seats you are left with.

Edited October 31, 2013 by djp14150

[Just Jack]

Can a computer tell you who is a leader or a cancer in the locker?

 

You throw enough data in there and it can. For starters just look at which players arrive early and which are usually late for practice/meetings. Then who is first to leave versus last to leave. Saw an article recently about Peyton Manning, he spends the entire month of March with the coaches watching game film of every play from the previous season, breaking it down into what they can improve on, even if it was a good play. That is what I call a leader.

[Jauronimo]

typing while on exercise machine for an hour. I am concise in my splatter on the wall posts.

 

 

Football is not about a simple bit of the ball or strikes/ outs. Its time management. It is down and distance. Score. Opposing schemes. Talent. In baseball you can't change the defense. You can't change the offense. Football had more variables

 

How will you measure CJ going forward vs Jackson? What happens when analytics show we cut Spiller and use Choice as our feature back? The salary cap works different in football.

 

Records and data matter any given Sunday. Baseball is 1 player at a time. 1 player can be off. Have a bad game at second base and that means crap. One guy can go 0fer at bat. It matters none in such a low scoring game. Football relies on 11 guys with the team ad strong as its weakest left guard.

 

Thanks for being concise but I'm going forward to lift things up and put them down.

Is that that the goal of the analytics department, to determine whether Choice or CJ should be cut or Jackson should get more carries than CJ? Your criticisms of this concept all revolve around analytics bungling your own asinine hypotheticals and the perils of taking Money Ball and applying it unmodified to football. These are not valid concerns.

 

Why don't we dismiss analytics because it cannot remove red wine stains. Who cares if thats never what it was intended to do.

 

Does Bill Belicheck use analytics or does he use his brain, football knowledge and his intuition?

Both. Analytics is a decision making tool.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

In fact his brain is full of research from his analytics department. He's among the leaders in developing and using football analytics.

 

Do you not research before making big decisions?

 

Well, I do try reading through a thread before posting.

 

[ny33]

Where do you get your data substantiating the claim that McKinsey is a feeder for the NFL? I call BS on this. Have you ever hired anyone who does analytics or who has worked for a consultancy like McKinsey? I have and you don't hire just on the name at the front of the building. There are a ton of very capable and smart analysts working for places other than the major consultants. Add to this that Buffalo is not exactly the top destination for many. So you thing some hot shot from Bain is just drooling for this job? Probably not.

 

I was in Cleveland for the Bills-Browns game as a guest of a friend who works in the analytics department there. I toured the front office and spoke with a few people about their team and their backgrounds. I can't divulge names, but several of them had come from either Bain or McKinsey; a new hire, not in the office yet, was a colleague of one of them at Bain. Front offices recruit heavily from the "Big Three" consulting firms. Sector-agnostic consultants are a huge asset and recruiting target to sports front offices. I'm not knocking the hire- I think Lyons will be ok- but I don't believe Brandon's claim that Lyons was their best candidate out of 1,000 applicants. Brandon looks to people from his network first for hires.

 

Edit: This is one of the best threads I've read on TBD. While some of us may disagree, I appreciate the civil discourse and informed opinions from many posters here.

Edited October 31, 2013 by ny33