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Execution aside, by simply reversing those numbers to 19 passes and 7 runs, I would be willing to bet we would be in 2nd and 3rd and longs far fewer times.

 

When we run on 1st down and get one or two yards, 2nd and 9 becomes a joke-- obvious passing down. This likely leads to poor exeuction on 2nd down, and then we are in a bad spot in 3rd down.

 

I'd like to research the breakdown of some of the better offenses and how much they pass on 1st down. I doubt it is 19:7 pass to run ratio, but wouldn't be surprised if it were 50%

 

Okay. Here is some reasearch.

 

I randomly picked the Saints, who I think we can all agree have a good offense (it's top-5 or 6). I picked their win 9/30/13 38-17 win against the Dolphins as a game to look at, since we just played the dolphins

 

In that game, excluding the kneel down at the end, the Saints had 29 first down plays. 13 were runs, and 16 were passes.

 

Of the 16 that were pass plays, 10 were described as "short" passes or were otherwise to the RB's, FB's and TE's.

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