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Seems like the correct use to me. IF: Bills beat the Bengals and Browns, IF: the Bills win out, IF: the queen had balls. All possible scenarios except (1) didn't happen, (2)+(3) possible to happen, but 99.9...% chance it isn't going to.

While that's one of my favorite expressions, I have to agree that it does not quite fit into this situation. It's meant to be used in response to a comment concerning something that has ALREADY happened and can therefore not be changed. In this case, the conversation is about events/outcomes that have not yet occurred.

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