How many games does Thad Lewis have to win to remain the starter

[Alphadawg7]

How many games does Thad have to win to hold the starting job in your eyes? 5-0? 4-1?

 

Why does your poll not have an option for "It doesnt matter, EJ is the starter"??? Without this option, this poll is irrelevant and pointless.

 

Seriously, that would EASILY have the most votes because I dont think that many people really believe Thad is going to steal the job this year from EJ. When EJ is healthy, he is the UNQUESTIONED starter until proven other wise. EJ has shown PLENTY of potential to this point, along with growing pains. They are not going to give up on him because Thad gets a couple of wins through relatively mediocre performances. Thad has NOT outplayed EJ, let alone done enough to win the job from our first round pick that the staff is VERY VERY high on.

 

Thad would have to perform like Kurt Warner did when he took over for Green when he got hurt in St Louis to hold onto this job this year, and he clearly is NOT doing that. I like Thad, and I actually think he is going to be a great backup QB to EJ for this offense. But at the end of the day, EJ is their guy until he proves otherwise and he isnt going to lose his job to injury when he played solid before the injury to a guy playing at about the same level.

 

So for me, this is a SILLY question. Like Thad, EJ had the Bills in every game...this offense is EJ's no question about it. Now if EJ comes back and has a rough rest of season, the possibility of having an open competition next year is there assuming Thad out played EJ. But for this year, there is exactly ZERO chance Thad takes EJ's job outside of the highly improbably scenario that Thad suddenly starts putting up gaudy numbers the rest of the time EJ is out (and I think we all know that isnt going to happen).

 

EJ - Season QBR 42.2 (in 5 games EJ had only 1 game under 30)

Thad - Season QBR 22.2

 

EJ has plenty to work on, but the kid has shown promise. And Thad isnt Kurt Warner and he isnt taking his job. Case closed.

 

PS: Anyone want to make me a wager that Thad will NOT start a single game over a healthy EJ, well I am all ears and taking all comers...just PM me. And this is from a guy (me) who is impressed with Thad and likes the kid.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[Tcali]

Why does your poll not have an option for "It doesnt matter, EJ is the starter"???

 

Seriously, that would EASILY have the most votes because I dont think that many people really believe Thad is going to steal the job this year from EJ. When EJ is healthy, he is the UNQUESTIONED starter until proven other wise. EJ has shown PLENTY of potential to this point, along with growing pains. They are not going to give up on him because Thad gets a couple of wins through relatively mediocre performances. Thad has NOT outplayed EJ, let alone done enough to win the job from our first round pick that the staff is VERY VERY high on.

 

Thad would have to perform like Kurt Warner did when he took over for Green when he got hurt in St Louis to hold onto this job this year, and he clearly is NOT doing that. I like Thad, and I actually think he is going to be a great backup QB to EJ for this offense. But at the end of the day, EJ is their guy until he proves otherwise and he isnt going to lose his job to injury when he played solid before the injury to a guy playing at about the same level.

 

So for me, this is a SILLY question. Like Thad, EJ had the Bills in every game...this offense is EJ's no question about it. Now if EJ comes back and has a rough rest of season, the possibility of having an open competition next year is there assuming Thad out played EJ. But for this year, there is exactly ZERO chance Thad takes EJ's job outside of the highly improbably scenario that Thad suddenly starts putting up gaudy numbers the rest of the time EJ is out (and I think we all know that isnt going to happen).

 

Thad isnt Kurt Warner

 

If we go 6-5 Thad stays in. Otherwise EJ needs the work.

[BarleyNY]

 

 

Right. Strawmanning. I love the irony.

 

If you feel compelled to dissect every pass, by all means have at it. I'm not impressed.

 

"Superior in every conceivable way." That's your statement. Own it. I'll look for Thad Lewis in the Pro Bowl in the near future then.

 

In the meantime, I'm comforted by the fact that NOBODY I know agrees that Lewis is superior to EJ in ANY way, let alone in EVERY way.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

 

That's the point. He needs to step up and TAKE the phucking job. He ain't even close to doing that at the moment.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Yes. That is the point. But I just don't see it happening. It would be nice and all, but it isn't realistic. Lewis would have to make tremendous strides.

[You herd it hear last]

If he tosses it around to the tune of 300+ yds/game and averages a couple td's, takes care of the football and wins all the games, I just don't see how you can sit the hot hand. The odds of that happening are not good though. Not good at all.

[DC Tom]

Let's just step back and reflect a moment...

 

Are we REALLY going to have a QB controversy between Manuel and Lewis? Really? That seems logical to people?

 

Unbelievable.

[jester43]

How many games does Thad have to win to hold the starting job in your eyes? 5-0? 4-1?

why in god's name is this a thread?

[Alphadawg7]

If we go 6-5 Thad stays in. Otherwise EJ needs the work.

 

Why is that? Is Thad winning us these games? Guess what, only 2 teams in the NFL have scored 20+ points every week this season...Bills and Broncos. Guess what else, EJ led us in 5 of those starts...Thad 2. We are averaging about the same points per game with Thad or EJ. Thad isnt going to be the reason we win some games. We could EASILY be 5-0 under EJ if not for about 3 plays. Offensive penalties on OL, defensive penalties, dropped passes, and stupid ST plays are why we lost those games. EJ had us there ready to win. Yes EJ made some mistakes too, but at the same time he played well enough for us to be undefeated under him while other areas of the team failed. Thad has done enough to keep us there too...but he has not been a difference maker.

 

Point is, Thad is 1-1 as a starter, could also be 2-0 if not for a stupid ST play...but he isnt making MORE of a difference than EJ, there fore he is NOT going to steal the job from the rookie QB our staff is in love with by doing about the same. EJ has a higher ceiling, was hand picked by this regime to be the future, has NOT played himself OUT of a job, and is without question going to continue to start this year once healthy. There is exactly ZERO percent chance Thad keeps this job unless he starts putting up gaudy numbers and leading us to decisive wins...and based on what we have seen, that isnt likely. I like Thad, and hope he sticks around, but THIS YEAR he is not going to by our starter when EJ is healthy.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[K-9]

Let's just step back and reflect a moment...

 

Are we REALLY going to have a QB controversy between Manuel and Lewis? Really? That seems logical to people?

 

Unbelievable.

 

You are an intelligent and erudite poster and we are lucky to have you in this community.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[DC Tom]

You are an intelligent and erudite poster and we are lucky to have you in this community.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

You're an idiot.

 

(Edit: GOD, that felt good. )

Edited October 22, 2013 by DC Tom

[Rob's House]

Let's just step back and reflect a moment...

 

Are we REALLY going to have a QB controversy between Manuel and Lewis? Really? That seems logical to people?

 

Unbelievable.

 

Are there another 2 QBs it would be more logical for us to have a controversy over?

[K-9]

You're an idiot.

 

(Edit: GOD, that felt good. )

 

Downright cathartic, I bet.

 

Now stay away from those empty pools.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[DC Tom]

Are there another 2 QBs it would be more logical for us to have a controversy over?

 

Tuel and Flynn?

 

"Is it logical to have ANY QB controversy?" is the better question.

[Jim in Anchorage]

You're an idiot.

 

(Edit: GOD, that felt good. )

Is that allowed?

[Alphadawg7]

You mean the same 4th and 17 pass that was arguably the last chance of the game that Thad threw perfectly against the Bengals for a TD?

 

And Thad's played 3 games. EJ was staring down his receivers a lot in his first starts as well.

 

I'm also pretty sure our 3rd down conversion percentage is better under Thad than it was under the "drive-sustainer" EJ but go ahead and pretend his one drive per game was good enough. That's why we' were 2-3 under ol' EJ and his high octane offense, he was so great at producing drives. Didn't we abolish the no-huddle because EJ ran us off the field in 30 seconds?

 

And keep strawmanning with the deep ball line, god knows repeating the same thing over and over gives your argument credence.

 

Why is it FireChan that you are are ALWAYS in every topic hard up on the most ridiculous and most unpopular stances? You say you dont troll, but you literally take the most idiotic stance in just about every topic you either start or jump in on. I have zero doubt in my mind, you literally get off on trolling this board. Defend all you want, but the evidence is DEEEEEEP on this.

 

But for Sh*ts and giggles, let me just point out that the QBR is WIDELY considered the best barometer for measuring the overall effectiveness of a QB in todays NFL. No system is perfect, but this one is pretty much accepted as the most in depth and most accurate measure available in a single statistic by a mile.

 

EJ QBR 42.2

Thad QBR 22.2

 

Thats all I have to say because anyone who actually believes this to be a real possibility is just trolling or fooling themselves. There is no chance in hell Thad takes this job THIS YEAR from EJ unless Thad suddenly turns into Kurt Warner and starts taking over games.

 

PPG with Thad and EJ are almost identical...EJ is their guy, so Thad would have to really out play EJ...not some BS nit pick situational BS you always try and peddle to make a worthless and meaningless point. Thad is not doing this and there is no reason to believe Thad is suddenly going to start dominating games. I really like Thad being here, but hes not taking EJs job this year based on his existing body of work.

[NoSaint]

Let's just step back and reflect a moment...

 

Are we REALLY going to have a QB controversy between Manuel and Lewis? Really? That seems logical to people?

 

Unbelievable.

 

To be fair I think it's the OP, firechan and bb on one side - and everyone else on the other. Given BBs record I'm counting him as an ej backer since everyone he gets behind (in this case Thad) falls apart and I think (hope?) firechan is just trolling

[OvrOfficiousJerk]

 

 

But for Sh*ts and giggles, let me just point out that the QBR is WIDELY considered the best barometer for measuring the overall effectiveness of a QB in todays NFL. No system is perfect, but this one is pretty much accepted as the most in depth and most accurate measure available in a single statistic by a mile.

 

EJ QBR 42.2

Thad QBR 22.2

 

Thats all I have to say because anyone who actually believes this to be a real possibility is just trolling or fooling themselves. There is no chance in hell Thad takes this job THIS YEAR from EJ unless Thad suddenly turns into Kurt Warner and starts taking over games.

 

PPG with Thad and EJ are almost identical...EJ is their guy, so Thad would have to really out play EJ...not some BS nit pick situational BS you always try and peddle to make a worthless and meaningless point. Thad is not doing this and there is no reason to believe Thad is suddenly going to start dominating games. I really like Thad being here, but hes not taking EJs job this year based on his existing body of work.

 

Does anyone outside of ESPN actually use QBR? Not a sarcastic question, just wondering if its gained traction among sports writers and other media outlets . Maybe Tim Graham has alluded to it, not sure. And also let's not forget the sample size on Thad is still n=2 for both the QBR and traditional passer rating (which has EJ at 79 and Thaddeus at 84). The 42-22 difference don't impress me much.

 

Back to the original question at hand, I say Thad would really have to pull an upset in NOLA for me to even think twice about him starting for longer than he has to. And then I'm okay w EJ taking his time coming back.

[DC Tom]

To be fair I think it's the OP, firechan and bb on one side - and everyone else on the other. Given BBs record I'm counting him as an ej backer since everyone he gets behind (in this case Thad) falls apart and I think (hope?) firechan is just trolling

 

The "kindler, gentler" moderating policy really needs a rider where the mods can specify "This person posted something so unbelievably ridiculous that you are now permitted to heap abuse on him, but in this thread alone."

[Alphadawg7]

Does anyone outside of ESPN actually use QBR? Not a sarcastic question, just wondering if its gained traction among sports writers and other media outlets . Maybe Tim Graham has alluded to it, not sure. And also let's not forget the sample size on Thad is still n=2 for both the QBR and traditional passer rating (which has EJ at 79 and Thaddeus at 84). The 42-22 difference don't impress me much.

 

Back to the original question at hand, I say Thad would really have to pull an upset in NOLA for me to even think twice about him starting for longer than he has to. And then I'm okay w EJ taking his time coming back.

 

Legit quesiton...and the answer is yes. The old QB Rating was so irrelevant that no one ever used it when evaluating a QB outside of media and fans. No scouts, GM's, coaches, etc put any stock into it what so ever as it had no analytical value of a QB's true impact in a game. That being said, the QBR ESPN developed is definitely looked at and referenced a lot by people who judge QB's for a living. Again, no one rating is the end all be all of evaluation, however, the QBR has a lot of value as a single stat for a glimpse into how a QB impacted a game on an individual level.

 

Media almost always references it now when comparing QB's too and its quickly becoming the most accepted stat to look at QB productivity. A lot of fans who have yet to familiarize it, mostly don't because they dont know enough about it nor do they give it much thought because ESPN developed it. ESPN however has developed quite a few statistical trackers in multiple sports that are quite a bit more accurate and important than any stats that existed before.

 

The difference between EJ and Thad's QBR is actually substantial. Again, I dont say this to knock Thad, because I am impressed with what he has done so far given the circumstances. But at the end of the day, Thad has clearly not outplayed EJ and the QBR certainly shows that. I would say Thad has filled him in a comparable fashion, which is a good thing. But definitely not in a way to take EJ's job. And if we beat NO, that does not mean we only did because of Thad being our starting QB. We have been in every single game this year under EJ too, and were a few plays away from him being undefeated. Our team PPG are about the same under both QB's. WIns and losses will not be what separates the two QB's as EJ played well enough for this team to be undefeated, just like Thad did enough for him to be 2-0 (even though we are 1-1 with him). Thad is going to have to grossly out play EJ to take the job from our number 1 pick the staff is VERY high on. And stats show that that has not happened yet, nor are there signs its on the horizons that he suddenly starts taking over games.

[FireChan]

Why is that? Is Thad winning us these games? Guess what, only 2 teams in the NFL have scored 20+ points every week this season...Bills and Broncos. Guess what else, EJ led us in 5 of those starts...Thad 2. We are averaging about the same points per game with Thad or EJ. Thad isnt going to be the reason we win some games. We could EASILY be 5-0 under EJ if not for about 3 plays. Offensive penalties on OL, defensive penalties, dropped passes, and stupid ST plays are why we lost those games. EJ had us there ready to win. Yes EJ made some mistakes too, but at the same time he played well enough for us to be undefeated under him while other areas of the team failed. Thad has done enough to keep us there too...but he has not been a difference maker.

 

Point is, Thad is 1-1 as a starter, could also be 2-0 if not for a stupid ST play...but he isnt making MORE of a difference than EJ, there fore he is NOT going to steal the job from the rookie QB our staff is in love with by doing about the same. EJ has a higher ceiling, was hand picked by this regime to be the future, has NOT played himself OUT of a job, and is without question going to continue to start this year once healthy. There is exactly ZERO percent chance Thad keeps this job unless he starts putting up gaudy numbers and leading us to decisive wins...and based on what we have seen, that isnt likely. I like Thad, and hope he sticks around, but THIS YEAR he is not going to by our starter when EJ is healthy.

 

"Guess what, only 2 teams in the NFL have scored 20+ points every week this season...Bills and Broncos."

This is a crap fallacy stat. Our offense, with or without golden boy savior EJ, has not scored 20+ points every game. Pick sixes and fumble returns do not count as offensive points. Sad thing is, with our turnover differential, we should be scoring a lot more than 20 points a game. Sorry.

 

"We could EASILY be 5-0 under EJ if not for about 3 plays. Offensive penalties on OL, defensive penalties, dropped passes, and stupid ST plays are why we lost those games. EJ had us there ready to win. Yes EJ made some mistakes too, but at the same time he played well enough for us to be undefeated under him while other areas of the team failed."

 

This is one of those lines we look back to in the offseason and laugh. EJ played well enough for us to be undefeated? 5 bad turnovers in 5 games? Meanwhile, our defense picks off Flacco 5 times, and EJ barely gets us the win. Good thing the defense didn't "fail" by only getting 3 interceptions,huh? Or else we would've lost. This may be the most absurd statement I've ever seen. Even I believe the defense bailed Thad out yesterday.

 

"EJ has a higher ceiling, was hand picked by this regime to be the future"

Higher ceiling means what exactly? We just believe in him more? We took him in the first round, so we gotta roll with him? Please. And hand-picked by this regime to be the future? Like Losman right? I'm sure you are a poster who disliked Nix immensely, but you seem pretty confident in his handpicked successor Whaley. I'm sure Whaley had nothing to do with some of our draft woes.

 

Why is it FireChan that you are are ALWAYS in every topic hard up on the most ridiculous and most unpopular stances? You say you dont troll, but you literally take the most idiotic stance in just about every topic you either start or jump in on. I have zero doubt in my mind, you literally get off on trolling this board. Defend all you want, but the evidence is DEEEEEEP on this.

 

But for Sh*ts and giggles, let me just point out that the QBR is WIDELY considered the best barometer for measuring the overall effectiveness of a QB in todays NFL. No system is perfect, but this one is pretty much accepted as the most in depth and most accurate measure available in a single statistic by a mile.

 

EJ QBR 42.2

Thad QBR 22.2

 

Thats all I have to say because anyone who actually believes this to be a real possibility is just trolling or fooling themselves. There is no chance in hell Thad takes this job THIS YEAR from EJ unless Thad suddenly turns into Kurt Warner and starts taking over games.

 

PPG with Thad and EJ are almost identical...EJ is their guy, so Thad would have to really out play EJ...not some BS nit pick situational BS you always try and peddle to make a worthless and meaningless point. Thad is not doing this and there is no reason to believe Thad is suddenly going to start dominating games. I really like Thad being here, but hes not taking EJs job this year based on his existing body of work.

 

"Why is it FireChan that you are are ALWAYS in every topic hard up on the most ridiculous and most unpopular stances?"

I'm not in every topic, don't be foolish. And I always disagree with you because you are so full of unbridled optimism that I cannot abstain from dissecting everything you said until you don't know what's real anymore. Remember when I said Spiller's production would decrease, and you wanted to bet money it wouldn't? Pepperidge Farms remembers.

 

"Defend all you want, but the evidence is DEEEEEEP on this."

Disagreeing with your unrealistic expectations and hopes doesn't equal trolling. Sorry.

 

"But for Sh*ts and giggles, let me just point out that the QBR is WIDELY considered the best barometer for measuring the overall effectiveness of a QB in todays NFL. No system is perfect, but this one is pretty much accepted as the most in depth and most accurate measure available in a single statistic by a mile.

 

EJ QBR 42.2

Thad QBR 22.2"

 

Thad has played 2 games, EJ has played 5. You might as well bring up that EJ has more TD passes this season. Remember when EJ melted down against the Jets? Or when He had a whopping QBR of 9 in the Baltimore game? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

 

To be fair I think it's the OP, firechan and bb on one side - and everyone else on the other. Given BBs record I'm counting him as an ej backer since everyone he gets behind (in this case Thad) falls apart and I think (hope?) firechan is just trolling

 

"I think (hope?) firechan is just trolling"

Sometimes, I hope so too.

[Superb Owl]

I was thinking that Thad seemed more efficient in both games, than EJ in any of his. The PFF ratings seem to agree. As long as he continues playing like this I wouldn't be surprised if Marrone keeps him in.