How many games does Thad Lewis have to win to remain the starter

[wnysteel]

i still do believe that if he goes 5-0 from here, the thought must at least be considered

 

fully agree. Wins (results) matter. not development of your first round pick.

[thebandit27]

Great post. I noticed everyone ignored you too; no one addressed what you said.

 

 

Everyone ignored it because it's not quantifiable in statistics. He's asking for someone to quantify an opinion.

 

If you want an argument as to why EJ belongs in there instead of Thad, my answer would be quite simple: he's had the team in contention to win every game, and delivered wins against teams like Carolina (who boasts the #3 defense in the NFL) and Baltimore, the defending Superbowl champions. The team also looked to be well on their way to beating Cleveland, who has a top 10 defense, on a short week before EJ was injured and Tuel couldn't engineer a drive lasting longer than 3 plays.

 

Thad hasn't played markedly better than EJ, so there's no reason to switch from the guy that appears to be your best bet for a franchise QB. He acquitted himself nicely against Cincinnati, and played rather poorly against a Miami defense that is ranked 25th in the NFL against the pass.

 

Fair enough?

 

From what I have seen of EJ he has been barely serviceable too.

 

From what I have seen from them both:

- Thad throws a better deep ball and all of his passes have more zip (SJ seems to have trouble catching them).

- Thad has been significantly better while running the read-option.

- Neither has consistently made reads quick enough, resulting in sacks

- Thad seems to be much quicker in the pocket, where EJ is a slower, bigger body type. Both avoid the rush well, but I think Thad has been better when deciding to scramble.

- Both EJ and Thad had their best games against better defenses (Carolina and Cincy)

- Both have kept us in every game they have played.

- EJ threw more INTs, Thad's only INT was when his arm was hit by the rush - I don't blame him for that pick

 

 

If EJ is going to start over Lewis, then the reasons cannot be:

- He was a first round pick

- He is taller.

 

It should also be noted, for the purpose of this discussion, that not everyone thought EJ was a 1st round talent. The Cowboys had him as a 4th rounder, for example.

 

Taking the bold statement first: totally irrelevant. How other teams grade your first round pick means absolutely nothing. Jerry Jones thought Quincy Carter was worth a 2nd round pick. 32 teams thought Tom Brady shouldn't have been drafted in the first 5 rounds. Then there's Russell Wilson...you get the point.

 

As for your list of things Thad does better, here's my opinion:

 

- his deep ball against Cinci looked great...not so much against Miami

- EJ puts plenty of zip on his passes; he also shows great touch when required...Thad's zip is just fine as well; I see absolutely no appreciable difference

- EJ has read defenses far better, taking only 13 sacks in 3.5 games despite facing pressure on a greater percentage of plays (if NFL.com's OL stats are to be believed). He has also done better and finding his 2nd/3rd options in the passing game when his first read isn't there. Thad seems to have more difficulty getting off his first read, which has lead to sacks and hurried throws.

- Both have done an admirable job avoiding pressure; Thad seems to have more quicks, which is natural of a smaller, slighter guy. EJ is plenty nimble enough to get the job done (see the final drive against Carolina)

- I agree on the better vs. better point

- Agree on the "keep us in the game" point

- I have to put some blame on Thad for that INT...he held the ball too long and didn't step into the pocket. It's an experience/feel thing for sure; there have been a number of those moments for him in his 2 starts

 

See my reasoning above for why EJ should start.

[peterpan]

This just occurred to me:

 

If Thad was the backup for the Cleveland game, and he came in to replace EJ, I think we would have won that game. It was completely winnable when EJ went out and the wheels fell off with Tuel. Seeing Thad's skills, I think we beat Cleveland.

 

Anyone else?

[K-9]

Great post. I noticed everyone ignored you too; no one addressed what you said.

 

 

From what I have seen of EJ he has been barely serviceable too.

 

From what I have seen from them both:

- Thad throws a better deep ball and all of his passes have more zip (SJ seems to have trouble catching them).

- Thad has been significantly better while running the read-option.

- Neither has consistently made reads quick enough, resulting in sacks

- Thad seems to be much quicker in the pocket, where EJ is a slower, bigger body type. Both avoid the rush well, but I think Thad has been better when deciding to scramble.

- Both EJ and Thad had their best games against better defenses (Carolina and Cincy)

- Both have kept us in every game they have played.

- EJ threw more INTs, Thad's only INT was when his arm was hit by the rush - I don't blame him for that pick

 

 

If EJ is going to start over Lewis, then the reasons cannot be:

- He was a first round pick

- He is taller.

 

It should also be noted, for the purpose of this discussion, that not everyone thought EJ was a 1st round talent. The Cowboys had him as a 4th rounder, for example.

 

The ONLY attribute Thad Lewis has over EJ Manuel at the moment is experience. That certainly counts for something and I don't dismiss that.

 

But to your last point, it doesn't bolster Lewis' case, either. While many teams didn't think EJ was a first round pick, NOT ONE TEAM thought Lewis was worth ANY PICK.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Rockinon]

I'll be convinced if he wins against N.O. and KC

[thebandit27]

This just occurred to me:

 

If Thad was the backup for the Cleveland game, and he came in to replace EJ, I think we would have won that game. It was completely winnable when EJ went out and the wheels fell off with Tuel. Seeing Thad's skills, I think we beat Cleveland.

 

Anyone else?

 

I certainly think we have a better chance, yeah. Hard to tell how a guy would play coming off the bench though...remember we've only seen him play with a full week of preparation.

[peterpan]

Everyone ignored it because it's not quantifiable in statistics. He's asking for someone to quantify an opinion.

 

If you want an argument as to why EJ belongs in there instead of Thad, my answer would be quite simple: he's had the team in contention to win every game, and delivered wins against teams like Carolina (who boasts the #3 defense in the NFL) and Baltimore, the defending Superbowl champions. The team also looked to be well on their way to beating Cleveland, who has a top 10 defense, on a short week before EJ was injured and Tuel couldn't engineer a drive lasting longer than 3 plays.

 

Thad hasn't played markedly better than EJ, so there's no reason to switch from the guy that appears to be your best bet for a franchise QB. He acquitted himself nicely against Cincinnati, and played rather poorly against a Miami defense that is ranked 25th in the NFL against the pass.

 

Fair enough?

 

 

 

Taking the bold statement first: totally irrelevant. How other teams grade your first round pick means absolutely nothing. Jerry Jones thought Quincy Carter was worth a 2nd round pick. 32 teams thought Tom Brady shouldn't have been drafted in the first 5 rounds. Then there's Russell Wilson...you get the point.

 

As for your list of things Thad does better, here's my opinion:

 

- his deep ball against Cinci looked great...not so much against Miami

- EJ puts plenty of zip on his passes; he also shows great touch when required...Thad's zip is just fine as well; I see absolutely no appreciable difference

- EJ has read defenses far better, taking only 13 sacks in 3.5 games despite facing pressure on a greater percentage of plays (if NFL.com's OL stats are to be believed). He has also done better and finding his 2nd/3rd options in the passing game when his first read isn't there. Thad seems to have more difficulty getting off his first read, which has lead to sacks and hurried throws.

- Both have done an admirable job avoiding pressure; Thad seems to have more quicks, which is natural of a smaller, slighter guy. EJ is plenty nimble enough to get the job done (see the final drive against Carolina)

- I agree on the better vs. better point

- Agree on the "keep us in the game" point

- I have to put some blame on Thad for that INT...he held the ball too long and didn't step into the pocket. It's an experience/feel thing for sure; there have been a number of those moments for him in his 2 starts

 

See my reasoning above for why EJ should start.

 

No animosity intended, both players look good. And you make very valid points. I just don't want another Rob Johnson situation of "he is taller! He cost us a 1st round pick! Start him!!!"

 

They guy that wins the games should play.

[thebandit27]

The ONLY attribute Thad Lewis has over EJ Manuel at the moment is experience. That certainly counts for something and I don't dismiss that.

 

But to your last point, it doesn't bolster Lewis' case, either. While many teams didn't think EJ was a first round pick, NOT ONE TEAM thought Lewis was worth ANY PICK.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I also think the fact that Lewis has had 3 years of NFL coaching from which to benefit gets lost on some folks...that cannot be over-stated.

 

No animosity intended, both players look good. And you make very valid points. I just don't want another Rob Johnson situation of "he is taller! He cost us a 1st round pick! Start him!!!"

 

They guy that wins the games should play.

 

I certainly apologize if it seemed like I took that to be acrimonious; I definitely didn't. I merely wanted to respond with my reasoning, since I felt the request had merit.

[Bangarang]

Maybe it's just me but i don't even think it's a consideration. EJ is the starter.

 

Thad hasn't been very good. He's been good for maybe 2 quarters for us so far (1st and 4th quarters against Cinci).

 

Other than that he hasn't looked good. He misses a lot of throws and doesn't do anything EJ can't. He looks like a serviceable backup and nothing more really.

Edited October 21, 2013 by Bangarang

[Campy]

This just occurred to me:

 

If Thad was the backup for the Cleveland game, and he came in to replace EJ, I think we would have won that game. It was completely winnable when EJ went out and the wheels fell off with Tuel. Seeing Thad's skills, I think we beat Cleveland.

 

Anyone else?

Definitely agree - it's too bad he (Lewis) wasn't active for that game.

[Dibs]

Great post. I noticed everyone ignored you too; no one addressed what you said.

.....

Okay, I'll bite....

 

Okay, I keep hearing that EJ is our Franchise QB. What do you base that determination on? Come on, convince me why EJ is the Franchise QB or Lewis is not. But do not say because he was our first round pick. Where you were picked does not make you a better player, just a player who makes more money and has higher expectations to meet.

How is EJ better than Lewis? Give me statistics and facts to convince me, not personal wishes and opinions.

Understand I am not saying I believe that Lewis is a Franchise QB. Convince me why EJ is better than Lewis based on his actual play on the field during the regular season. Has EJ had a better long ball in actual games? Has he given up less picks per game on average? Has he given up less sacks per game on average? Has he had a better completion rate? Has he made better decisions? Has he shown better leadership skills?

 

I am not slamming or promoting either player. I want you to convince me that either one has given an actual performance on the field that has shown that he deserves to be considered a potential franchise QB. Remember use statics and actual performance, not opinions and feelings.

 

This is your challenge. Make your case for anointing a Franchise QB for the Bills!

 

I think that most posters saying that EJ is our Franchise QB are somewhat paraphrasing.....or at least I hope they are.

What I assume that most mean is that EJ has the better chance to become the Bills Franchise QB.....not that he is actually good enough to be called one at this point in time.

 

The concept of "1st round pick" is not what you seem to think it is. The argument isn't that a player was picked in the first round.....therefore they are a better player, it is instead that they are perceived to have a better chance of becoming a better player.

 

Statistics show this to be a truism. When you look at the percentage success(dividing the number of successes from the number of selections), it is clear that QBs selected within the first 36 draft selections of the draft have an enormously higher success rate than those picked after the #36 pick.

 

For clarification......this isn't to say that those drafted higher will become great(the facts show that the odds are still low for that to occur)...

...and it also doesn't say that you can't find a great QB later in the draft(hello Mr Brady).......just that the odds are much better for those determined to have 1st round potential than those that don't.

 

Relating it to the EJ/Thad situation.....

The Bills have already determined that EJ has great potential to become a top NFL QB(that's why they selected him at #16).

Thad on the other hand has had every NFL scout determine that his potential to become a great NFL QB was minimal at best.....if at all.

 

Even if Thad's play is somewhat better than EJ's at this point, the experts(specifically the Bills experts) don't see much chance of a future for Thad as an NFL starter......and they obviously would still see a much greater chance for a future for EJ.

 

With that in mind, the concept of giving QBs playing time in order to maximize their NFL improvements becomes the main issue. When faced with 2 inexperienced QBs who at this point are not good players.......there is no question that you give the starting nod to the guy who you view has the better chance to help the team down the road......rather than waste valuable playing time on a guy who you expect might improve to become a solid backup.

 

 

All that said, there is always a chance that Thad will become a top NFL QB.......but the odds are extraordinarily slim.

[K-9]

Maybe it's just me but i don't even think it's a consideration. EJ is the starter.

 

Thad hasn't been very good. He's been good for maybe 2 quarters for us so far (1st and 4th quarters against Cinci).

 

Other than that he hasn't looked good. He misses a lot of throws and doesn't do anything EJ can't. He looks like a serviceable backup and nothing more really.

 

But he throws a beautiful long ball!

 

And chicks dig the long ball.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited October 21, 2013 by K-9

[Rob's House]

Any coach or GM taking the "EJ is our starter" position should be fired immediately. I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that Thad's performance so far should put him in the running, but if he improves steadily over the next 4 games, the offense is clicking, and the Bills are winning, it would take an absolute blithering idiot, devoid of any reason or self-awareness, and riddled with hubris & confirmation-bias to pull the guy that's performing in favor of the guy with potential in the middle of a !@#$ing playoff run.

[Prickly Pete]

Why don't people just wait until EJ is ready to return, and then assess their play?

 

The subtext to all this speculation is that the staff won't want to keep a #1 draft pick on the bench, because it will make them look foolish for drafting him. It's like the some fans just can't wait to complain about the staff, and just love to say "I told you so". Whiners.

 

I think they would look far more foolish if they pulled a guy that was playing well and winning games. This staff hasn't shown that kind of attitude at all. If Lewis gets lots better, and the team keeps winning, they will keep him in.

 

But alas, I doubt Lewis is going to light it up.

 

Any coach or GM taking the "EJ is our starter" position should be fired immediately. I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that Thad's performance so far should put him in the running, but if he improves steadily over the next 4 games, the offense is clicking, and the Bills are winning, it would take an absolute blithering idiot, devoid of any reason or self-awareness, and riddled with hubris & confirmation-bias to pull the guy that's performing in favor of the guy with potential in the middle of a !@#$ing playoff run.

 

They won't, it's just that there are some fans that can't wait to whine about how stupid the staff is, and have their "life is so unfair" attitude justified.

[K-9]

Any coach or GM taking the "EJ is our starter" position should be fired immediately. I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that Thad's performance so far should put him in the running, but if he improves steadily over the next 4 games, the offense is clicking, and the Bills are winning, it would take an absolute blithering idiot, devoid of any reason or self-awareness, and riddled with hubris & confirmation-bias to pull the guy that's performing in favor of the guy with potential in the middle of a !@#$ing playoff run.

 

What if he plays just like yesterday, no better or worse, and the Bills continue to win on defense and turnovers?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Keukasmallies]

Thad appears to be just as advertised: An effective back up QB.

 

Would we be happier if he was failing? What a ill-timed post at this stage of the Bills season.

[Prickly Pete]

What if he plays just like yesterday, no better or worse, and the Bills continue to win on defense and turnovers?

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

If he plays like yesterday, they won't beat the Saints or the Chiefs. But if you want to play that game, then no, EJ will likely be back in, because Lewis needs to progress to keep the job.

[buffalover4life]

EJ was playing against some great defenses. The jets and carolina and Cleveland are all in the top 7, and new england has the 11th ranked pass D. EJ did have some nice help from his running game though.

[Rob's House]

 

 

What if he plays just like yesterday, no better or worse, and the Bills continue to win on defense and turnovers?

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

That would be a much much tougher situation. I'd probably go with "if it ain't broke don't fix it," but I'd be understanding if they went the other way. Unless he goes 4-0 over the next 4 weeks. Then I say don't pull him no way, no how, and I don't care what the stat sheet says. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

[todd]

+1

 

EJ is the starter.

 

This. There weren't enough options on in the poll.