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For those of you missing Levitre


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There has been an ongoing discussion on the board about whether rolled over money can be re-rolled into the following year. Sources have been cited(including the CBA document) that are worded in the negative.....but several respected analysts have been cited as having opinion that it can be re-rolled.

 

If it cannot be re-rolled, we lose $9.8M in rollover for 2014.

 

 

 

I agree with there being a good chance we won't have Byrd's contract on the 2014 books......though personally I hope we do.

 

In regards to the "usual roster turnover"....the players you mention have dead cap hits....Kolb & Smith $0.5M each....and we will still need players brought in to replace them if they are cut. Don't get me wrong, I believe we will be in a good position to take advantage of the good FA period that next off-season looks to be.

 

 

 

 

Had we placed the Fitz $7M onto this years cap we would be rolling over $7M less into the 2014 cap.......end result being exactly the same for the 2014 cap. Doing it this way enabled the Bills to have extra money available in 2013.....even though we didn't/haven't used it. Perhaps for PR reasons the Bill's FO should have just taken the hit this season to avoid the sort of unfounded negative public reaction shown in this thread.

 

The Bills rolled that money into next season so they would have to spend less actual $ next year to reach the salary floor..... the salary cap is a technicality to the Bills. Their cap is "cash to the cap", which is a convenient way of stacking cheese and having no guaranteed future player debt unpaid for.

 

The union and the owners collectively bargained this......and the owners want it too because they are sick of stone age run franchises riding the coattails of those that are taking risks and building equity in the league. That is even the basis for the Hard Knocks decision. They want the Bills to start holding up their end of the bargain and start playing to win as a franchise.

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Fans are gonna whine, piss, B word and cry in all manners if their team loses games.

 

Look at the QB's Jake Locker and not Fitz. Not exactly scaring teams into NOT stacking the box to stop the Titans best threat in CJ2K.

 

Johnson 18th ranked this year 3.1 YPC avg

2012 8th ranked with 4.5 YPC avg

2011 14 ranked with 4.0 YPC avg

 

Now looking at the Buffalo Bills this season with CJ Spiller and his 4.0 YPC avg vs last season with 6.0 YPC avg Now take away one long 54 yard run and his YPC goes down to a measly 3.1 YPC.

 

Is there a problem with the Bills LG, you bet!! But there is also a bigger problem with the scheme and play calling from this year to last year.

 

So, is it Chris Johnson, the O line, or the scheme as the Titans have a new OC this year.

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The Bills rolled that money into next season so they would have to spend less actual $ next year to reach the salary floor..... the salary cap is a technicality to the Bills.

This is an interesting theory.....though I can't see any way that it could be proven to be true.

As it stands we have spent 92.7% of the cap.....while only being required to spend 88.8% this season.

 

Their cap is "cash to the cap", which is a convenient way of stacking cheese and having no guaranteed future player debt unpaid for.

This year we have spent 1.107 times the cap in cash(cash to cap) which is 12th highest in the NFL.

http://www.overthecap.com/nfl-cash-space.php?Year=2013

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Levitre's greatest attribute was staying healthy. Next he was a good pass blocker and a decent run blocker. Levitre was not a big physical run blocking lineman. If the Titans felt like he was going to be a great run blocker then they did not watch film on him. He is a more 'wall off' your man. Levitre is not going to push interior Dlineman back. he does well at getting the the second level the LB's due to his agility.

 

To me Levitre got over paid. I am not mad a Levitre everyone of us would do the same thing if someone offered us more money then we where worth. The problem comes from teams not stcking together to keep the market fair. As long as you have owners who make unwise investments, they will continue to happen.

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Last year against Tennessee. Awful pick late. They took the ball and scored to take the lead, then Fitz's last drive sputtered.

 

And as I've already stated in this thread: he was the only reason we were in that game to begin with. It was a damn track meet, and we clawed back to take the lead you're referring to (it was our first of the game).

Edited by The Big Cat
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This is an interesting theory.....though I can't see any way that it could be proven to be true.

As it stands we have spent 92.7% of the cap.....while only being required to spend 88.8% this season.

 

 

This year we have spent 1.107 times the cap in cash(cash to cap) which is 12th highest in the NFL.

http://www.overtheca...e.php?Year=2013

 

Never let facts get in the way of a good crusade!

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This is an interesting theory.....though I can't see any way that it could be proven to be true.

As it stands we have spent 92.7% of the cap.....while only being required to spend 88.8% this season.

 

 

This year we have spent 1.107 times the cap in cash(cash to cap) which is 12th highest in the NFL.

http://www.overtheca...e.php?Year=2013

 

There is no other rational explanation for rolling that dead money into next year when there is plenty of space this year. As for next years cap, we do not even know what that figure is and probably won't until February of 2014. Could be the same, could be $10M higher, we do not know. Rolling that money into next year gives the Bills the option to play it cheap if that is what they want to do. That is all it does. Literally not one single other reason to play it that way.

 

As for the Bills spending 1.107 times the cap in cash..........that was exactly my point. They have spent to their cap and they really do not care about that $20M in unused cap space the league says they have.

 

That figure is what detractors of the Bills organization use as something of a barometer for how committed the Bills are to winning. That is reasonable. It is an unused asset and the Bills are an underperforming franchise.

 

But when apologists try to take salary cap figures and use it as fodder for their arguments they ignore one important thing.........the Bills do not care about literal salary cap figures. If you don't know that then you really aren't arguing from the Bills perspective whatsoever. But that is the apologist position.....that they know, understand and agree with how the organization chooses to manage the team.

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If he would have restructured, he would be our backup. If he was our backup, he would have led us to a win over Cleveland. I have no doubts about this.

 

Fitz never gave up games. Plenty of times he failed to bring the team back, but lest we forget he had plenty of games where he did lead them from behind, they fell short in a bunch of those, but that's not the point.

 

Can anyone here recall a game in which Fitz relinquished a lead late in the game?

 

NE game last year..

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There is no other rational explanation for rolling that dead money into next year when there is plenty of space this year.

Sure there is.....I said it before. As it makes no difference to the 2014 cap whether you have it the 2013 or 2014.....you may as well have it in the 2014 leaving extra monies in the 2013 year just in case you get a surprise opportunity to spend it on.

 

 

As for next years cap, we do not even know what that figure is and probably won't until February of 2014. Could be the same, could be $10M higher, we do not know.

It's been pretty widely reported that the cap won't dramatically increase till the 2015 season.

http://www.sportsbus...es/NFL-cap.aspx

http://espn.go.com/n...lary-cap-growth

 

 

As for the Bills spending 1.107 times the cap in cash..........that was exactly my point. They have spent to their cap and they really do not care about that $20M in unused cap space the league says they have.

Did you see the bit I wrote(and provided link for) where the Bills have been the 12th highest spenders this season?

They have spent well over "their cap"......and they have also covered well over the minimum cap amount.

 

I explained the ramifications of that $20M earlier. If you are unable to follow it....I can't do any more to help you.

Edited by Dibs
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Levitre's greatest attribute was staying healthy. Next he was a good pass blocker and a decent run blocker. Levitre was not a big physical run blocking lineman. If the Titans felt like he was going to be a great run blocker then they did not watch film on him. He is a more 'wall off' your man. Levitre is not going to push interior Dlineman back. he does well at getting the the second level the LB's due to his agility.

 

To me Levitre got over paid. I am not mad a Levitre everyone of us would do the same thing if someone offered us more money then we where worth. The problem comes from teams not stcking together to keep the market fair. As long as you have owners who make unwise investments, they will continue to happen.

Andy did do a fine job in the run game getting to the next player, next level. Hell i have seen him block a safety or two !

He stayed healthy , made very few mistakes ( as far as i know ).

In retrospect it was a mistake. Very important error as i see things now.

In regard to his pay...

He is apparently worth more then we and the Bills FO thought because someone paid him that. Regardless of what has occured since he left the Bills.

By the way i was a NO to give him top dog money.

My opinion is generally based on how much the Bills have suffered without him and watching him play here.

and thats another story about Doug Whaley and friends

Edited by 3rdand12
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Sure there is.....I said it before. As it makes no difference to the 2014 cap whether you have it the 2013 or 2014.....you may as well have it in the 2014 leaving extra monies in the 2013 year just in case you get a surprise opportunity to spend it on.

 

 

 

It's been pretty widely reported that the cap won't dramatically increase till the 2015 season.

http://www.sportsbus...es/NFL-cap.aspx

http://espn.go.com/n...lary-cap-growth

 

 

 

Did you see the bit I wrote(and provided link for) where the Bills have been the 12th highest spenders this season?

They have spent well over "their cap"......and they have also covered well over the minimum cap amount.

 

I explained the ramifications of that $20M earlier. If you are unable to follow it....I can't do any more to help you.

 

Dibs, not that you should give a f#@k, but I appreciate your posts. I don't necessarily agree with all of them but what is great about this board is reading posts that are well thought, and that posters have devoted time to. My Robert Hunter lyrics cost me 30-45 minutes per week lol.

 

The above said, I do NOT understand the position you are taking wrt the salary cap. I follow this as much as I can and have no idea where you are going. It quite possibly could be me.

 

Are you telling me that postponing the 7 million dollar cap hit of Fitz until 2014 will not lessen the Bills cap space next year? And let's toss in perhaps another 4 mil for Mark Anderson, shall we? Are you saying that this will not matter in 2014? If so, would you please explain?

 

Also, is time approaching when teams will be mandated to spend a certain percentage of the cap, no?

 

Here is what I see from at best, a semi-educated view.....

 

1) The Bills have 20 mil. in cap space and it sits in the owner's pocket, courtesy of a flim flam puppet, Russ Brandon.

 

2) I cling to the premise that the organization was given the choice of Byrd OR Levitre.

 

3) In an idiotic, Levy/Jaurnesque move, they chose to pursue Byrd in lieu of their best, most durable blocker. This with a rookie QB.

 

4) The most expensive players on an NFL Football Team are generally their QB, LT, and their best pass rusher. Denver is a great example of this. It works.

 

5) The Bills pay literal pennies for Glenn and Manuel. Mario costs a fortune, but the other 2 come SO cheap that there was/is a ton of money left for no reason, and I do mean NO REASON. They could have paid Levitre, easily.

 

6) The good news was the draft. They traded down and both second round picks are clearly solid players. Even if EJ doesn't develop, Woods and Kiko appear to be first round talents.

 

Again, please if you will explain how putting off 11 mil. in cap space (with 20 mil to spare) doesn't matter in 2014. Frankly, I don't believe it.

Edited by Bill from NYC
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Dibs, not that you should give a f#@k, but I appreciate your posts. I don't necessarily agree with all of them but what is great about this board is reading posts that are well thought, and that posters have devoted time to.

Thanks Bill, I think it safe to say that everybody likes being told that somebody appreciates their posts. :thumbsup:

 

My Robert Hunter lyrics cost me 30-45 minutes per week lol.

:w00t:

 

 

The above said, I do NOT understand the position you are taking wrt the salary cap. I follow this as much as I can and have no idea where you are going. It quite possibly could be me.

 

Are you telling me that postponing the 7 million dollar cap hit of Fitz until 2014 will not lessen the Bills cap space next year? And let's toss in perhaps another 4 mil for Mark Anderson, shall we? Are you saying that this will not matter in 2014? If so, would you please explain?

 

Again, please if you will explain how putting off 11 mil. in cap space (with 20 mil to spare) doesn't matter in 2014. Frankly, I don't believe it.

 

I may be wrong in regards to speculating why the Bills are doing what they are doing, but in regards to this issue(the Fitz/Anderson hits being put into 2014 and not changing how it effects the 2014 cap), I am correct. I state that with confidence as it is not an opinion......it is mathematically correct.

 

I will try to explain the situation......which has, for me at least, become a bit more difficult to explain due to my lack of certainty on the re-rollover rule.

I will keep the extra complexities out......which means that there will be some caveats on some of the things I say, but won't effect things in relation to the specific 2013/2014 cap situation the Bills are in.

 

In times past, moving monies in this manner would certainly have effected the following year's cap situation. Moving a $10M debt into the next season would have (obviously) lowered the amount left under the cap. The big change to this was when NFL teams became able to roll over any leftover monies into the following year. Mathematically this means that spending it in year A, or putting it in year B would make no difference on year B's cap numbers.

 

I will endeavor to explain it here using some imaginary 'flat' numbers.

Let's say the 2013 cap and the 2014 cap are 100M.

....and the Bills have spent 80M in 2013.....and have committed to spend $80M in 2014.

With the rollover ability, this means that the remaining 20M of cap money from 2013 goes onto the 2014 cap.....effectively raising the 2014 cap to 120M giving us (120M minus 80M) 40M of cap room instead of 20M.

 

 

They also however have $10M in dead money which they can put into either the 2013 or the 2014 years.

 

If the 10M is put into the 2013 year:

Their 2013 spend rises to 90M.....leaving 10M left over.

That left over 10M is then rolled into the 2014 cap....bring the 2014 cap to be 110M.

As 80M has been spent in 2014......

This leaves (110M minus 80M) 30M of cap room in 2014.

 

If the 10M is put into the 2014 year:

Their 2013 spend remains at 80M.....leaving 20M left over.

That left over 20M is then rolled into the 2014 cap....bring the 2014 cap to be 120M.

80M has been spent in 2014.....plus the 10M in question......makes the 2014 spending to be 90M

This leaves (120M minus 90M) 30M of cap room in 2014.

 

As you can see, either way it is done, the cap room for 2014 is unaffected. 2014 ends up with the same amount of cap room in both scenarios.

 

 

Also, is time approaching when teams will be mandated to spend a certain percentage of the cap, no?

 

We are already there. This season teams are required to spend 88.8% of the base cap.....which rises to 90% in future seasons.

As it stands, we have spent 92.7% of the base cap this year.

 

We have also already committed to spend an estimated 88% of next years cap(while still needing to re-sign Byrd....and have players hitting FA that we may well want to re-sign in Carrington, Moats, Chandler, Legursky, Branch, Leonhard.....and Punter, FB, backup QB & Kicker......plus monies for the 2014 rookie class. On top of that we have Dareus and A.Williams who hit FA in 2015 whom we might want to lock up mid 2014.

 

 

1) The Bills have 20 mil. in cap space and it sits in the owner's pocket, courtesy of a flim flam puppet, Russ Brandon.

 

2) I cling to the premise that the organization was given the choice of Byrd OR Levitre.

 

4) The most expensive players on an NFL Football Team are generally their QB, LT, and their best pass rusher. Denver is a great example of this. It works.

 

5) The Bills pay literal pennies for Glenn and Manuel. Mario costs a fortune, but the other 2 come SO cheap that there was/is a ton of money left for no reason, and I do mean NO REASON. They could have paid Levitre, easily.

 

These 4 points all come under the same concept of cap management. What tends to be forgotten is that any long term contracts signed today effect the cap situations of tomorrow.

 

I tried to explain the ramifications of signing both Levitre and Byrd on the 2014 cap earlier in the thread.

I'll do so again here using the fictionally easier 100M cap example from above.

(For ease of calculation I will remove the 10M dead money factor).

 

As stated prior, our example has....

100M caps in both 2013 and 2014.....and...

We have spent 80M in both years leaving...

20M in cap space in 2013...and...

a rolled over cap space of 40M in 2014.

 

Signing a player(Levitre) to 8M/year effects the 2013 cap....

The 80M spent becomes 88M....leaving 12M for rollover.

It however greatly effects the 2014 cap....

The 80M spent in 2014 becomes 88M leaving 12M....plus the 12M rollover becomes 24M.

40M of cap space in 2014 becomes 24M.

 

That would be all well and good if the actual numbers were that high, but they aren't. Assuming the addition of 8M for Byrd(which was the situation at the time of the decision), we have already committed to 118M of the 125M projected cap for 2014.

Leaving 7M in cap room.

 

Allowing best case scenario of being able to roll over the full 18.4M(not 20M) of left over money from 2013 into 2014......that would be reduced by signing Levitre to 10.4M onto the 2014 cap.

Leaving 17.4M in cap room......except we still have to pay 8M in 2014 so this brings the number to 9.4M in cap room.

 

9.4M(likely a little more for various reasons) to....as I said earlier....re-sign Carrington, Moats, Chandler, Legursky, Branch, Leonhard.....and Punter, FB, backup QB & Kicker......plus monies for the 2014 rookie class. On top of that we have Dareus and A.Williams who hit FA in 2015 whom we might want to lock up mid 2014.

 

*note* If already rolled monies are not allowed to be re-rolled into future years, the 9.4M in cap space becomes 0.4M in cap debt.

 

We certainly could have signed both players but it would have left us in a tenuous place regarding future caps.

 

 

I totally agree with your QB/OT point.....but we don't have those big contracts on the roster. To me it comes down to the philosophy of "you don't overpay for players unless you are legitimately within sight of a championship."

 

We don't have the big QB or OT contracts on our roster.....but if we overspend now, the impact on future seasons might mean we have to gut the team(collecting more dead money) in order to sign them. Glenn hopefully will be good enough to be re-signed mid 2015 to a 10M+++/year deal. With luck in 2016 we re-sign EJ to a $20M+++/year deal.

 

Having to cut overpaid players who also land you with a sizable dead cap hit is not good cap management. We have made those mistakes in the recent past & I like to think the FO has learned from them and is poised to be able to take advantage of the massive overspending of many other teams in the next couple of off-seasons. We will see.

 

 

3) In an idiotic, Levy/Jaurnesque move, they chose to pursue Byrd in lieu of their best, most durable blocker. This with a rookie QB.

An arguable point but again a no-brainer IMO when considering the cap ramifications of having to Franchise Tag the player. Unfortunately the OG tag money was significantly more in terms of value for money than the S tag money. There is also the point of the fact that the S has been to two probowls and considered generally top 5 at his position.

 

 

6) The good news was the draft. They traded down and both second round picks are clearly solid players. Even if EJ doesn't develop, Woods and Kiko appear to be first round talents.

Agreed.....but this too highlights the importance of long term cap management. I'm sure that none of us want the Bills to be in a situation where we are stretched with regards to the cap when we are wanting to re-sign/extend these players in 3+ years time. Overpaying players now....and running the cap to the max each year causes greater problems down the road when wanting to sign legitimate star players.

 

 

I could be wrong in my assessment that the Bills are making these decisions because they have a solid cap plan for the future. They may simply be stingy and not want to spend over a certain level.....and it's just coincidence that it makes good long term cap sense. I personally don't think that is the case as the Mario, Freddie, SJ, Woods etc contracts seem to show that they are willing to spend money when they see it fits......but I guess the next 2-5 years will prove things one way or the other.

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These 4 points all come under the same concept of cap management. What tends to be forgotten is that any long term contracts signed today effect the cap situations of tomorrow.

 

I tried to explain the ramifications of signing both Levitre and Byrd on the 2014 cap earlier in the thread.

I'll do so again here using the fictionally easier 100M cap example from above.

(For ease of calculation I will remove the 10M dead money factor).

 

As stated prior, our example has....

100M caps in both 2013 and 2014.....and...

We have spent 80M in both years leaving...

20M in cap space in 2013...and...

a rolled over cap space of 40M in 2014.

 

Signing a player(Levitre) to 8M/year effects the 2013 cap....

The 80M spent becomes 88M....leaving 12M for rollover.

It however greatly effects the 2014 cap....

The 80M spent in 2014 becomes 88M leaving 12M....plus the 12M rollover becomes 24M.

40M of cap space in 2014 becomes 24M.

 

That would be all well and good if the actual numbers were that high, but they aren't. Assuming the addition of 8M for Byrd(which was the situation at the time of the decision), we have already committed to 118M of the 125M projected cap for 2014.

Leaving 7M in cap room.

 

Allowing best case scenario of being able to roll over the full 18.4M(not 20M) of left over money from 2013 into 2014......that would be reduced by signing Levitre to 10.4M onto the 2014 cap.

Leaving 17.4M in cap room......except we still have to pay 8M in 2014 so this brings the number to 9.4M in cap room.

 

9.4M(likely a little more for various reasons) to....as I said earlier....re-sign Carrington, Moats, Chandler, Legursky, Branch, Leonhard.....and Punter, FB, backup QB & Kicker......plus monies for the 2014 rookie class. On top of that we have Dareus and A.Williams who hit FA in 2015 whom we might want to lock up mid 2014.

 

*note* If already rolled monies are not allowed to be re-rolled into future years, the 9.4M in cap space becomes 0.4M in cap debt.

 

We certainly could have signed both players but it would have left us in a tenuous place regarding future caps.

 

 

I totally agree with your QB/OT point.....but we don't have those big contracts on the roster. To me it comes down to the philosophy of "you don't overpay for players unless you are legitimately within sight of a championship."

 

We don't have the big QB or OT contracts on our roster.....but if we overspend now, the impact on future seasons might mean we have to gut the team(collecting more dead money) in order to sign them. Glenn hopefully will be good enough to be re-signed mid 2015 to a 10M+++/year deal. With luck in 2016 we re-sign EJ to a $20M+++/year deal.

 

 

Honestly, best explanation in this thread Dibs.

 

And it makes sense, if you sign Levitre to the deal he got in Tennessee(which the Bills, IMO, would have had to sign him for more to keep him here) you would severly jepordize the franchises ability to sign future talent. To franchise Byrd and then attempt to sign him, would work out cheaper. IMO, If Glenn continues being as good as he has been, that money for Levitre should be spent on him. Then the Bills would have locked up a franchise Center in Woods and a franchise LT in Glenn. The rest of the positions will have to be filled, via the draft and/or cheaper talent.

 

In today's NFL it's just not possible to spend big on every single one of a teams OL.

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Sure there is.....I said it before. As it makes no difference to the 2014 cap whether you have it the 2013 or 2014.....you may as well have it in the 2014 leaving extra monies in the 2013 year just in case you get a surprise opportunity to spend it on.

 

 

 

It's been pretty widely reported that the cap won't dramatically increase till the 2015 season.

http://www.sportsbus...es/NFL-cap.aspx

http://espn.go.com/n...lary-cap-growth

 

 

 

Did you see the bit I wrote(and provided link for) where the Bills have been the 12th highest spenders this season?

They have spent well over "their cap"......and they have also covered well over the minimum cap amount.

 

I explained the ramifications of that $20M earlier. If you are unable to follow it....I can't do any more to help you.

 

OHHHHHH.......that $20 million in cap space is there just in case say......Andrew Luck gets released and you need to come up with enough cap room to issue a 10 year $300M contract with $190M signing bonus.

 

Now I follow you.

 

In that event.....$10M in available cap room would leave you only enough to do another Mario Williams type contract and maybe another Leodis contract or something like that and still have enough room in case of injuries.

 

That isn't going to buy you much off the in-season waiver wire now is it?

 

Or what if the Bills want to extend every single player on the team that is on their first contract for an additional 5 years and cut off Eugene Parker at the pass?

 

Great point about the value of saving that extra $7M in space this year.

 

Plausible.

 

I guess I just don't understand the salary cap like you. The Bills have clearly spent 10% over cash to the cap.....perhaps risking a self-imposed draft pick loss..... so that must mean that they have changed their publicly stated "cash to the cap" ways and are now conforming with league standards and have every intention of either using all $20M of that cap space or rolling it over in it's entirety into 2014.

 

That's great news because fans aren't getting discouraged at all, yet. They are still showing up in droves, even for early season "good weather" games but that "cash to the cap" thing was risking consumer confidence, IMO.

 

If only I had some background with Bills caponomics. I must not have been here in the late 1990's discussing the ramifications of outrageous spending on guys like Sam Rogers and Ken Irvin and the potential long term damage the teams cap mismanagement was causing.

 

I wasn't here when Tom Donahoe gave John Holecek a bonus to renegotiate his contract in April and then released him in May, inflicting a million dollar wound at a time when the team was up against the cap and running a cheese grader across the roster.

 

I really have no perspective or understanding of Bills history in the free agent/salary cap era.....not like you. I guess I can't understand amortization and other fancy terms like that, it's just so complicated.

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The salary cap discussion has been hashed out quite clearly here. Yes, the team currently has $19M in cap room. No, they will not have all of that room next season. Yes, there are very real salary cap ramifications of making a good-but-not-elite guard the highest paid offensive player on your team.

 

It really is that simple. The problem isn't letting Levitre go, it's that his replacement isn't very good. This is a problem that can be fixed with an investment of a 3rd round pick or a $2M annual salary next off-season.

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Dibs won this thread. Nice work and research. Apperciate it very much. :thumbsup:

 

We have to be the only fan board that has massive threads on LGs and punters.

In fairness, we're fans of the only franchise that would have a press conference to introduce Vince Young (let alone sign him).

Edited by Gugny
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