papazoid Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 A lot of people talk about the "$20 million" in cap that we have as if it only applies to this season.....and that not spending it is somehow "cheap" behaviour on behalf of the FO. Paying Levitre 8M a year(for 6 years) would impact the following 5 caps......most importantly the 2014 cap. Due to the rollover rules, Levitre sucking up $8M/year would suck $16M out of next years cap(2014).....$8m in salary & the loss of $8M rollover money that would occur for not signing him. The cap space we have at the moment is $18.4M. The 2014 cap is slated to be around $125M. At the moment we are committed to $110M. Assuming no changes, we start the 2014 year with $15M in cap space plus rollover money. Byrd's money($8M) needs to be included in the plans leaving $7M of cap money in 2014. We will also have players hitting FA that we may well want to re-sign in Carrington, Moats, Chandler, Legursky, Branch, Leonhard.....and Punter, FB, backup QB & Kicker......plus monies for the 2014 rookie class. On top of that we have Dareus and A.Williams who hit FA in 2015 whom we might want to lock up mid 2014. We also have very few players who are in the position to renegotiate their contracts to create space. Mario being the only one that really would be viable. Going back to the 2014 numbers.... Had we signed Levitre for $8M/year, we would be $1M over the 2014 cap.....AND have to do all of those things listed above. There is still the rollover monies to factor in.... (As I still don't have definitive information about re-rollover I will cover both scenarios).... Assuming we can re-roll rollover money.....we can take that $18.4M into next season. Had we signed Levitre that would then be reduced to $10.4M.....effectively leaving us with $9.4M in cap space to achieve all of the above things listed. Assuming we can't re-roll rollover money(which I'm fairly sure is the case).....we can take $8.6M into next season. Had we signed Levitre that would then be reduced to $0.6M.....effectively leaving us being $0.4M over the cap & still having to achieve all of the above. There is bond to be some juggling etc of monies......but the end position really is that in the particular cap situation the Bills are in through 2013/2014, re-signing Levitre(particularly over-paying for him) was never going to be considered a wise decision unless he was a STAR player. BAD NEWS....most of it ($17 mil) is going to be used up next year with the players we already have. NAME - 2013 Cap - projected 2014 CAP Mario - $12.4 - $18.4 Stevie - $5.6 - $8.5 Kyle - $5.9 - $5.8 Marcell - $5.5 - $6.5 Eric Wood - $5.0 - $5.3 CJ - $3.7 - $4.2 Freddy - $3.7 - $3.7 Leodis - $3.0 - $4.2 Pears - $2.8 - $3.5 Urbik - $2.8 - $3.3 Fitz - $3.0 - $7.0 (dead money) TOTAL - $53.4 - $70.4
Dibs Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 This sentiment is totally idiotic. If you decide not to pay someone, you better sure as sh*t figure out a Plan B. They literally replaced Levitre with the worst player in the NFL (Profootballfocus). How could anyone describe this as a smart move? You are confusing results with intent. Considering the recent success the Bills have had at evaluating the talent of players on the OL, it is not unreasonable to assume that they believed the LG position was going to be minimally stable. The fact that their Plan A(using the players that are currently there) has not turned out as expected is definitely a mistake.....but not a mistake on planning. It was a mistake on talent assessment.
eball Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 Can anyone here recall a game in which Fitz relinquished a lead late in the game? Last year against Tennessee. Awful pick late. They took the ball and scored to take the lead, then Fitz's last drive sputtered.
Dibs Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 BAD NEWS....most of it ($17 mil) is going to be used up next year with the players we already have. NAME - 2013 Cap - projected 2014 CAP Mario - $12.4 - $18.4 Stevie - $5.6 - $8.5 Kyle - $5.9 - $5.8 Marcell - $5.5 - $6.5 Eric Wood - $5.0 - $5.3 CJ - $3.7 - $4.2 Freddy - $3.7 - $3.7 Leodis - $3.0 - $4.2 Pears - $2.8 - $3.5 Urbik - $2.8 - $3.3 Fitz - $3.0 - $7.0 (dead money) TOTAL - $53.4 - $70.4 The figures I listed for the 2014 cap included all current contracts. All of those numbers were used in the figures I gave.
papazoid Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 The figures I listed for the 2014 cap included all current contracts. All of those numbers were used in the figures I gave. where is the list or link of your players and salaries that make up your "2014 At the moment we are committed to $110M."
Dibs Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 where is the list or link of your players and salaries that make up your "2014 At the moment we are committed to $110M." $109,887,839 At the very bottom of the page.... http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap-hit/2014/
K-9 Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 ...Citing PFF doesn't help your case here...do you know where they have Levitre ranked as a guard? Brown hasn't been good, no question. He's not the worst player in the NFL, no matter what the "advanced stats" say. I mean come on, have you seen any Jaguars' games? Brown could be one of their best offensive players. Got that right. Going into free agency, they had Levitre as the 2nd best G on the market behind Brandon Albert. But they had him rated as the best pass blocking G in football. They also had him ranked as the 39th best run blocking G in the game. 39th. Has that ranking gone up, down, or remained the same at PFF? I honestly don't know. Bottom line is that as poor as Colin Brown has played, and poor doesn't begin to describe his play, our running game has been decent, if not dominant at times. I don't see how we can just imagine how as low rated a run blocker as Levitre is, that they could run the ball that much better. It's more of a case of missing on his replacement than missing Levitre at this point. GO BILLS!!!
papazoid Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 $109,887,839 At the very bottom of the page.... http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap-hit/2014/ ok thanks... The cap space we have at the moment is $18.4M (we can assume ALL of it will be rolled over to 2014) The 2014 cap is slated to be around $125M. Bills total adjusted 2014 team cap should be around $143.4 At the moment we are committed to $110M. that leaves $33.4 mil of cap space. I don't think the bills have the stomach to go through another year of Byrd and will trade him before the draft. factor in the usual roster turnover (Kolb $3.6, B Smith $2.3, Colin Brown $0.8 and a host of min wage players for a total of $10 mil). bills could be working with $43 mil
Doc Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 Not having a backup plan, which is a valid criticism in this case, is not a reason to sorely overpay a decent OG, especially when it would screw the team down the line WRT more important impending FA's. And keeping Rinehart would have been nice, but it's not like he lit-it-up and he was probably was looking to move to SD/re-hook-up Alessandris.
K-9 Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 Not having a backup plan, which is a valid criticism in this case, is not a reason to sorely overpay a decent OG, especially when it would screw the team down the line WRT more important impending FA's. And keeping Rinehart would have been nice, but it's not like he lit-it-up and he was probably was looking to move to SD/re-hook-up Alessandris. There's a difference between not having a backup plan and having a plan that fails. Even still, they are getting production out of their running game and their pass protection has been more than adequate for the most part IN SPITE of Colin Brown's ineptitude. GO BILLS!!!
Doc Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 There's a difference between not having a backup plan and having a plan that fails. Even still, they are getting production out of their running game and their pass protection has been more than adequate for the most part IN SPITE of Colin Brown's ineptitude. GO BILLS!!! Yes, my mistake in saying they had no backup plan instead of saying they had an inadequate backup plan. And I agree that Brown isn't the reason the Bills lost those 3 games and that Levitre wouldn't have led to them winning them. Hopefully the leeway people are giving Levitre in his first 5 underwhelming games can be extended to Brown as well.
BADOLBILZ Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 A lot of people talk about the "$20 million" in cap that we have as if it only applies to this season.....and that not spending it is somehow "cheap" behaviour on behalf of the FO. Paying Levitre 8M a year(for 6 years) would impact the following 5 caps......most importantly the 2014 cap. Due to the rollover rules, Levitre sucking up $8M/year would suck $16M out of next years cap(2014).....$8m in salary & the loss of $8M rollover money that would occur for not signing him. The cap space we have at the moment is $18.4M. The 2014 cap is slated to be around $125M. At the moment we are committed to $110M. Assuming no changes, we start the 2014 year with $15M in cap space plus rollover money. Byrd's money($8M) needs to be included in the plans leaving $7M of cap money in 2014. We will also have players hitting FA that we may well want to re-sign in Carrington, Moats, Chandler, Legursky, Branch, Leonhard.....and Punter, FB, backup QB & Kicker......plus monies for the 2014 rookie class. On top of that we have Dareus and A.Williams who hit FA in 2015 whom we might want to lock up mid 2014. We also have very few players who are in the position to renegotiate their contracts to create space. Mario being the only one that really would be viable. Going back to the 2014 numbers.... Had we signed Levitre for $8M/year, we would be $1M over the 2014 cap.....AND have to do all of those things listed above. There is still the rollover monies to factor in.... (As I still don't have definitive information about re-rollover I will cover both scenarios).... Assuming we can re-roll rollover money.....we can take that $18.4M into next season. Had we signed Levitre that would then be reduced to $10.4M.....effectively leaving us with $9.4M in cap space to achieve all of the above things listed. Assuming we can't re-roll rollover money(which I'm fairly sure is the case).....we can take $8.6M into next season. Had we signed Levitre that would then be reduced to $0.6M.....effectively leaving us being $0.4M over the cap & still having to achieve all of the above. There is bond to be some juggling etc of monies......but the end position really is that in the particular cap situation the Bills are in through 2013/2014, re-signing Levitre(particularly over-paying for him) was never going to be considered a wise decision unless he was a STAR player. That would be a really swell argument if it were based on how the Bills organization is run.........but it simply is not. The only thing you need to know about the Bills cap situation is that they rolled $7M of dead money from Ryan Fitzpatrick into next season when they had a wealth of space available to absorb it this year. They did so because extra cap space is a burden going forward. Not a lack of cap space......EXTRA cap space is a burden. Why do people have their head in the sand about this subject? The Bills aren't working under the league salary cap system as it is set up to be.
K-9 Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 Yes, my mistake in saying they had no backup plan instead of saying they had an inadequate backup plan. And I agree that Brown isn't the reason the Bills lost those 3 games and that Levitre wouldn't have led to them winning them. Hopefully the leeway people are giving Levitre in his first 5 underwhelming games can be extended to Brown as well. That leeway can only be given after an honest evaluation of the situation. I'm not holding my breath, though. Colin Brown will never be forgiven for not being Andy Levitre. GO BILLS!!!
Mike B. in VA Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 Considering the recent success the Bills have had at evaluating the talent of players on the OL, it is not unreasonable to assume that they believed the LG position was going to be minimally stable. The fact that their Plan A(using the players that are currently there) has not turned out as expected is definitely a mistake.....but not a mistake on planning. It was a mistake on talent assessment. Indeed. The Bills have a track record of success with lineman other teams think of as marginal (Jason Peters and Jonas Jennings immediately spring to mind as two guys that got big free agent deals when leaving), so the planning aspect of it had some history. Reinhardt was a no-name journeyman when he got here, and IIRC two teams had decided Pears was marginal at best. I still think they should have spent a little more for depth, though the FA class was kinda meh, other that guys like Vasquez (who cost more than AL would have!) Sometimes stuff doesn't pan out in the NFL - ask the Steelers how letting Medenhall go played out when their starter went down.
Coach Tuesday Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 Indeed. The Bills have a track record of success with lineman other teams think of as marginal (Jason Peters and Jonas Jennings immediately spring to mind as two guys that got big free agent deals when leaving), so the planning aspect of it had some history. Reinhardt was a no-name journeyman when he got here, and IIRC two teams had decided Pears was marginal at best. I still think they should have spent a little more for depth, though the FA class was kinda meh, other that guys like Vasquez (who cost more than AL would have!) Sometimes stuff doesn't pan out in the NFL - ask the Steelers how letting Medenhall go played out when their starter went down. Well, to be fair, the Steelers at least had a viable starter who went down. The Bills don't even have a viable starter at that position. Look - no one is really arguing here. There is consensus that the Bills lacked a viable plan at LG. They knew back in April that Brown was struggling. Legursky is hardly the answer (they were both called out by Marrone early in the offseason). They didn't even try to address the position in the draft (or the previous draft, when they should've seen this coming). I agree with BADOL's point about the Bills' capenomics but it's beside the point - they could've done their usual profit-taking thing and still found a decent replacement-level solution at LG. It isn't cheapness that led them to where they are, it's normal OBD incompetence.
A Dog Named Kelso Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 (edited) The biggest problem with letting Levitre walk was that we didn't have a plan for his replacement. They should have at least signed Rinehart that, I think, was the biggest issue. He is certainly not better than Levitre but he is better that what we have in there now. Edited October 10, 2013 by cklapka
Dibs Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 ok thanks... The cap space we have at the moment is $18.4M (we can assume ALL of it will be rolled over to 2014) ..... There has been an ongoing discussion on the board about whether rolled over money can be re-rolled into the following year. Sources have been cited(including the CBA document) that are worded in the negative.....but several respected analysts have been cited as having opinion that it can be re-rolled. If it cannot be re-rolled, we lose $9.8M in rollover for 2014. ...... I don't think the bills have the stomach to go through another year of Byrd and will trade him before the draft. factor in the usual roster turnover (Kolb $3.6, B Smith $2.3, Colin Brown $0.8 and a host of min wage players for a total of $10 mil). ..... I agree with there being a good chance we won't have Byrd's contract on the 2014 books......though personally I hope we do. In regards to the "usual roster turnover"....the players you mention have dead cap hits....Kolb & Smith $0.5M each....and we will still need players brought in to replace them if they are cut. Don't get me wrong, I believe we will be in a good position to take advantage of the good FA period that next off-season looks to be. .... The only thing you need to know about the Bills cap situation is that they rolled $7M of dead money from Ryan Fitzpatrick into next season when they had a wealth of space available to absorb it this year. ... Had we placed the Fitz $7M onto this years cap we would be rolling over $7M less into the 2014 cap.......end result being exactly the same for the 2014 cap. Doing it this way enabled the Bills to have extra money available in 2013.....even though we didn't/haven't used it. Perhaps for PR reasons the Bill's FO should have just taken the hit this season to avoid the sort of unfounded negative public reaction shown in this thread.
John from Riverside Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 If Byrd comes in and plays lights out....I really do hope they get something worked out and he stays remember....WINNING cures a lot of things
mannc Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 Anyone know what kind of compensatory pick we get for Levitre leaving? Or has that yet to be determined?
Billy in 4C Posted October 10, 2013 Posted October 10, 2013 Look - PFF said Colin Brown gave up 16 pressures in the first 3 games - all tight games. Assuming Levitre gives up 1/game like the rest of the line, there's a decent chance we win one or both of those. Levitre just through week 3 might have already given us 2 additional wins.
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