PaattMaann Posted September 30, 2013 Posted September 30, 2013 Coming out of yesterdays game, I couldn't help thinking "why do we just jam Spiller up the gut every first down" - and that was not just my thoughts on yesterdays game, but every game we have had thus far....and then I was "discussing" this earlier with Promo in the shout box, and thought id go back and look at the numbers to see if my hating on the play calling was justified or not 21 total runs on first down compared to 9 passes on first down (2 of these were "forced" because of penalties on first down, putting us in first and long) Im actually OK with that number....ideally I would like that ratio to be more like 18 to 10 on runs/passes but thats simply splitting hairs - I think game long, it was the total number of passes and runs on first down was fair - but these numbers are slanted when you consider one drive that had 3 first down passes in a row, and some drives that had 3 or more runs on first down in a row (obviously here though, the offense is in a rhythm so why stop?) Here was what I think is the biggest problem with the running on first down, which is obvious, when it works, it works, and when it doesn't, it doesn't (duh) - on the first down runs where we gained less than 3 yards (there were 7 of those total), we punted four times, had a turnover on another, and then on the other two we had a FG and a TD (both drives started in opponents territory) - so we had 5 possessions that were "wasted" (yes, some of these are necessary throughout a game to set up upcoming plays and drives) - 5 times we also followed up an under three yard run with another a run than gained 2 yards or less (three times getting stuffed for a loss) - so the run, run, run mode had its drawbacks (short runs on first down tend to lead to punts) - but as PTR pointed out, we also gained 115 yards on those first down runs (5.5 average) of the first downs where we began by passing the ball - we had gains of: 19, 11, 42 (TD), 28, 24 (overruled, incomplete), and on the short field drive, we passed twice to begin the drive which set up FJ's nice 16 yard TD run The short: the play calling was slanted towards the run on first down, which it should be - we are a running team with a rookie QB - perhaps we should throw a little more on first down (the results were very positive, although, that is also set up by pounding the football a lot on first down)? The second half offense was terrible (punt, TO, punt, punt, TD, punt, punt, kneel down win) Personally id like to see some screen plays on first down, both RB and WR, and some quick hitting slants and outs that would "soften" the D up......with that said, the play calling was not nearly as atrocious as I had come out of the game yesterday thinking, a little more variety by Hackett and better execution on those pass plays by EJ and the offense could be rolling
PromoTheRobot Posted September 30, 2013 Posted September 30, 2013 You ignore the fact the Bills gained 115 yards on 14 running plays on 1st down in the first half. That's an average of 8.2 yards. So you don't like the play calling but ignore how effective it was because you are focused on the 3-4 times it didn't work so well. Then there is the issue of time management. Right now EJ throwing the ball is a greater risk because he is so raw. Even if the passes are incomplete you are stopping the clock. Did we not just spend a week complaining about our hurry-up being too fast? Since you did the research on the Bills how about looking at every other game yesterday and tell us how those teams did on 1st down? Let's look at the Ravens. Did they not run on 1st a lot? Is Harbaugh stupid? PTR
boyst Posted September 30, 2013 Posted September 30, 2013 It may be vanilla with sprinkles right now but it feels like Hackett and Marrone are still finding their ways on offense. I think they had a lot of work last week when the weaknesses were exposed. The Browns coaches will not be putting on a clinic like Rex Ryan did but they will give us a good test for consistency
PaattMaann Posted September 30, 2013 Author Posted September 30, 2013 PTR - by my count the bills had 85 yards rushing on first downs in the first half - on 13 attempts - still a good 6.5 average - which I also noted above and said how you were to credit with the good call on their yards per rush on first down...(one of us had incorrect numbers lol and ive done my math off of ESPN play by play twice now) and i think if you re-read my post - I have changed my mind since our initial shout box discussion and said how we were overall effective with our first down rushes (I am ceding that point to you - you were and are correct) All that I added was I think we can be even more effective with more play action on first down (big gains/TDs as noted above) and some screens and quick hitting passing plays - which im sure will happen once EJ becomes more comfortable and confident It may be vanilla with sprinkles right now but it feels like Hackett and Marrone are still finding their ways on offense. I think they had a lot of work last week when the weaknesses were exposed. The Browns coaches will not be putting on a clinic like Rex Ryan did but they will give us a good test for consistency I dont know if you are under selling the Browns D on purpose or accident - but their D is no joke and Horton has those guys playing a great brand of D - do you mean they wont be blitzing as much as the Jets? If so, I agree...but they have a front 7 that i think is just about as good as the Jets and will certainly be a step up from the Ravens D - we have a tough test ahead of us against this Browns D I couldnt agree more with your statement about our offense and coaches just finding their way...as stated in the OP - I like what im seeing, just cant wait to see whats in store for the next few weeks
CSBill Posted September 30, 2013 Posted September 30, 2013 Good analysis and thoughts. But you raise one issue that has caught my attention (maybe others have said it), why would the team that was known as one of the best in the league last year at it, not run any screen plays? I may be wrong, but I cannot recall the BIlls running one yet this season. It seems to me, with Spiller being most effective when given open space, and Fred Jackson's uncanny ability to make much more out of little, we have the idea backs for a barrage of screens--which the last few seasons can testify too. Why has it completely disappeared?
boyst Posted September 30, 2013 Posted September 30, 2013 PTR - by my count the bills had 85 yards rushing on first downs in the first half - on 13 attempts - still a good 6.5 average - which I also noted above and said how you were to credit with the good call on their yards per rush on first down...(one of us had incorrect numbers lol and ive done my math off of ESPN play by play twice now) and i think if you re-read my post - I have changed my mind since our initial shout box discussion and said how we were overall effective with our first down rushes (I am ceding that point to you - you were and are correct) All that I added was I think we can be even more effective with more play action on first down (big gains/TDs as noted above) and some screens and quick hitting passing plays - which im sure will happen once EJ becomes more comfortable and confident I dont know if you are under selling the Browns D on purpose or accident - but their D is no joke and Horton has those guys playing a great brand of D - do you mean they wont be blitzing as much as the Jets? If so, I agree...but they have a front 7 that i think is just about as good as the Jets and will certainly be a step up from the Ravens D - we have a tough test ahead of us against this Browns D I couldnt agree more with your statement about our offense and coaches just finding their way...as stated in the OP - I like what im seeing, just cant wait to see whats in store for the next few weeks I agree they'll be a step up from Baltimore, but that's not saying much. The Browns have a good D across the board. There are not many weaknesses but there are not a great amount of strengths. We will see what the coaching staff can do and if there is going to be consistency when we play the Browns because we will have to play smart balanced offensive football. We will need to see runs setting up the pass. We will need effective distribution at all depths of the field. EJ will be required to pass over the middle for 4 yards and create YAC. He must be able to complete a 50 yard pass in the air to keep TJ Graham a factor. He will need to read through traffic and get 10-12 yard passes to SJ13. He will need to remember dump off routes to the RB's but not check down every play.
The Big Cat Posted September 30, 2013 Posted September 30, 2013 A couple things: First, I think your count is off. I have 33 First Down Plays not a negated by penalty/ Second, the best way to measure "effective" playcalling on any down is whether or not the play was "successful." On first down, a "successful" play is one that nets 33% or more of the yards needed for another first. Of the 33 first down plays, I'm looking at, we were successful on 20 of them. And on the 13 unsuccessful plays, 3 of them were passes. That sounds pretty good to me.
PaattMaann Posted September 30, 2013 Author Posted September 30, 2013 A couple things: First, I think your count is off. I have 33 First Down Plays not a negated by penalty/ Second, the best way to measure "effective" playcalling on any down is whether or not the play was "successful." On first down, a "successful" play is one that nets 33% or more of the yards needed for another first. Of the 33 first down plays, I'm looking at, we were successful on 20 of them. And on the 13 unsuccessful plays, 3 of them were passes. That sounds pretty good to me. thanks - I did classify the runs and pass plays as "successful" if they gained more than 3 yards and as I said - the overall day/numbers on first down did sound good to me - I went into looking at the stats with a preconceived idea that we ran too much, and unsuccessfully as well. But I was wrong, I wouldnt say we ran "Too much" in general, and since it was successful, we were justified in running that much... the issue I did come out with after looking at the first down numbers was A) the runs that were unsuccessful on first down were all classified as "up the middle" (jamming Spiller up the gut - which is necessary for sure every so often) and B) we followed unsuccessful runs with another unsuccessful run play on more than 5 occasions, all but one of which resulted in a punt - that is no bueno...variety, variety, variety I look forward to some more "spice" in the play calling as far as adding play action on first down more (2 for 2 in yesterdays game in that regard, one of which went for a long TD), screen passes - which we have not run ANY of after being the best team in the league last year, and more quick hitting slants and outs....and then we could be off to the races on offense
The Big Cat Posted September 30, 2013 Posted September 30, 2013 thanks - I did classify the runs and pass plays as "successful" if they gained more than 3 yards and as I said - the overall day/numbers on first down did sound good to me - I went into looking at the stats with a preconceived idea that we ran too much, and unsuccessfully as well. But I was wrong, I wouldnt say we ran "Too much" in general, and since it was successful, we were justified in running that much... the issue I did come out with after looking at the first down numbers was A) the runs that were unsuccessful on first down were all classified as "up the middle" (jamming Spiller up the gut - which is necessary for sure every so often) and B) we followed unsuccessful runs with another unsuccessful run play on more than 5 occasions, all but one of which resulted in a punt - that is no bueno...variety, variety, variety I look forward to some more "spice" in the play calling as far as adding play action on first down more (2 for 2 in yesterdays game in that regard, one of which went for a long TD), screen passes - which we have not run ANY of after being the best team in the league last year, and more quick hitting slants and outs....and then we could be off to the races on offense ha, sorry. I only read the bolded part of your post, and assumed it was another "we run too much on first down" thread. carry on
PaattMaann Posted September 30, 2013 Author Posted September 30, 2013 ha, sorry. I only read the bolded part of your post, and assumed it was another "we run too much on first down" thread. carry on haha, no worries, it was a lengthy post - but one that I felt was needed considering I flipped from my original belief/statement that we were running for no gain too much on first downs Id still like to see more variety so we dont go against 7/8 man fronts on every first down, but it was working yesterday (for the most part)
The Big Cat Posted September 30, 2013 Posted September 30, 2013 haha, no worries, it was a lengthy post - but one that I felt was needed considering I flipped from my original belief/statement that we were running for no gain too much on first downs Id still like to see more variety so we dont go against 7/8 man fronts on every first down, but it was working yesterday (for the most part) by the looks-test and by the numbers, they did considerably better on 1st down than they have all season. hackett and ej will only continue evolving together. 2-2 with 12 games worth of improvement to look forward to?
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