A Few Thoughts About The Game, in no particular order.....

[Russ 'Em]

I love that you actually admitted that you were wrong about Kyle Williams. Props for that. And Kikoooooooooooooo! has pro bowl written all over him.

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

1) Pettine is awesome. He was my favorite move (player or coach) the entire off season. Yes, perhaps even more than Manuel, although EJ is a close, close, close second.

 

2) McKelvin is just making plays this year. He gets his hands in there and knocks balls away. He almost looks like a completely different player. I don't know if it's coaching or scheme or what, but he is orders of magnitude better than in the past.

 

3) I beg Hackett to get CJ in space. Stretch plays, draws, counters, whatever it takes. Because CJ is not a guy that excels between the tackles. It looks like Hackett finally figured this out in the second half. That 68 yard run came on a stretch/sweep to the right.

 

4) Fred Jackson may be my favorite player on this team. He gets 3 yards when you think he's just going to get 1. He can run between the tackles. He can pass block. And he dropped that ball on purpose during the last drive. My mancrush is now complete.

 

5) I still can't believe we won the game yesterday. I am not used to the feeling of a last-minute win.

 

6) This team is gonna be fun to watch this year, even if we only go 8-8...or worse.

 

7) Can't wait to see how having Gilmore and Byrd back affect how Pettine calls a game.

[DC Tom]

I love that you actually admitted that you were wrong about Kyle Williams. Props for that. And Kikoooooooooooooo! has pro bowl written all over him.

 

Bill's very ready to admit he's wrong about everything except drafting a CB in the first round.

[mannc]

Luckily he was up against a coach who did his best Jauron imitation - Rivera. For the life of me, I don't understand how NFL lifers don't understand basic NFL clock management. Go for the first down on 3 and 5; don't run it up the middle and concede the series. He did it all for the purpose of ensuring that the Bills would have 1:38 and no timeouts to work with instead of 1:38 and 1 timeout to work with. Try and actually get the first down, and you might actually have some success. Schiano did the same.

And go for the first down on 4th and 1 from the Bills' 21, especially when you have a 6'5" 250 pound, highly mobile QB. Convert that and the game's over. Fail to convert, and the Bills still need to go 50 yards with no timeouts to kick the game-tying FG. (Unlikely that the Bills would try to score a TD if trailing by only 3.) I was elated when Rivera decided to kick the FG. It was a timid, old-school, Jauron-like, play-not-to-lose decision.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

And go for the first down on 4th and 1 from the Bills' 21, especially when you have a 6'5" 250 pound, highly mobile QB. Convert that and the game's over. Fail to convert, and the Bills still need to go 50 yards with no timeouts to kick the game-tying FG. (Unlikely that the Bills would try to score a TD if trailing by only 3.) I was elated when Rivera decided to kick the FG. It was a timid, old-school, Jauron-like, play-not-to-lose decision.

That's hard to say. IMO, a lot of NFL coaches, probably the majority, would have reluctantly kicked the FG. The probably of a rookie QB going 80 yards for a TD versus 40 yards for a FG in 1:38 with no timeouts has got to be less than 10% and probably closer to 1-5%.

[mannc]

That's hard to say. IMO, a lot of NFL coaches, probably the majority, would have reluctantly kicked the FG. The probably of a rookie QB going 80 yards for a TD versus 40 yards for a FG in 1:38 with no timeouts has got to be less than 10% and probably closer to 1-5%.

I agree that a lot of NFL coaches would have kicked the FG. That doesn't make it right. I don't know for sure what the analytics folks would say, but I'm pretty sure that according to their formulas, going for the first down in that situation gives your team the best chance to win, and it's probably not even close. Chance of converting the 4th down play on that part of the field has to be at least 70%, especially with Cam Newton at QB. Then, if you fail, the Bills (with a rookie QB in his second game) have to go at least 50 yards with no time outs. Chances of that alone happening have to be less than 35%. Then Carpenter has to make the FG. Chance of a miss is probably as high as 50% from beyond 45 yards. AND the FG would only tie the game, meaning your team still has roughly a 50% chance of winning even if all those other bad things happen. It's a perfect example of the "safe" call being the low percentage move.

Edited September 16, 2013 by mannc

[dave mcbride]

I agree that a lot of NFL coaches would have kicked the FG. That doesn't make it right. I don't know for sure what the analytics folks would say, but I'm pretty sure that according to their formulas, going for the first down in that situation gives your team the best chance to win, and it's probably not even close. Chance of converting the 4th down play on that part of the field has to be at least 70%, especially with Cam Newton at QB. Then, if you fail, the Bills (with a rookie QB in his second game) have to go at least 50 yards with no time outs. Chances of that alone happening have to be less than 35%. Then Carpenter has to make the FG. Chance of a miss is probably as high as 50% from beyond 45 yards. AND the FG would only tie the game, meaning your team still has roughly a 50% chance of winning even if all those other bad things happen. It's a perfect example of the "safe" call being the low percentage move.

Indeed, and you are correct: the Bills would have settled for the FG to tie it. They would not have tried for the TD with 6 seconds left.

 

That's hard to say. IMO, a lot of NFL coaches, probably the majority, would have reluctantly kicked the FG. The probably of a rookie QB going 80 yards for a TD versus 40 yards for a FG in 1:38 with no timeouts has got to be less than 10% and probably closer to 1-5%.

 

Too many teams are marching down the fields after getting the ball with 1-2 minutes left after the team with the lead went conservative and bled the clock until they had to give it up via fourth down. I feel like I see it all the time. There are a lot of conservative coaches. I guess you can't blame them -- the Jerry Sullivans of the world leap on coaches that don't bleed the clock late in halves. If nothing else, by playing conservative they can avoid a week long of criticism of how stupid they are.

[eball]

That's hard to say. IMO, a lot of NFL coaches, probably the majority, would have reluctantly kicked the FG. The probably of a rookie QB going 80 yards for a TD versus 40 yards for a FG in 1:38 with no timeouts has got to be less than 10% and probably closer to 1-5%.

 

I posted this in the Wanny thread, but the stats back up going for it:

 

In Carolina's situation (4th and 1, opponent's 21, 1:42 on the clock), the difference in win probability for success/failure of attempting the FG was 82% vs. 81% -- almost negligible. By contrast, the win probability for success/failure of going for it was 97% vs. 84%. But here's the point -- even failing to convert on 4th and 1 results in a higher win probability than making the FG.

[Big Turk]

 

I agree that a lot of NFL coaches would have kicked the FG. That doesn't make it right. I don't know for sure what the analytics folks would say, but I'm pretty sure that according to their formulas, going for the first down in that situation gives your team the best chance to win, and it's probably not even close. Chance of converting the 4th down play on that part of the field has to be at least 70%, especially with Cam Newton at QB. Then, if you fail, the Bills (with a rookie QB in his second game) have to go at least 50 yards with no time outs. Chances of that alone happening have to be less than 35%. Then Carpenter has to make the FG. Chance of a miss is probably as high as 50% from beyond 45 yards. AND the FG would only tie the game, meaning your team still has roughly a 50% chance of winning even if all those other bad things happen. It's a perfect example of the "safe" call being the low percentage move.

 

You are right...Carolina's win percentage probability actually went DOWN when they kicked that FG...lol

[eball]

You are right...Carolina's win percentage probability actually went DOWN when they kicked that FG...lol

 

You are correct. Read the post above yours.

[mannc]

 

In Carolina's situation (4th and 1, opponent's 21, 1:42 on the clock), the difference in win probability for success/failure of attempting the FG was 82% vs. 81% -- almost negligible. By contrast, the win probability for success/failure of going for it was 97% vs. 84%. But here's the point -- even failing to convert on 4th and 1 results in a higher win probability than making the FG.

Great point. What amazes me is that the announcers are completely oblivious to this sort of thing. I could not hear the announcers at the end of the game yesterday, but I'm sure they did not even suggest that Rivera might consider going for it on 4th down. To the contrary, if he had, they would have been floored and talked about him like he was a riverboat gambler, when the numbers show just the opposite. Something tells me that Marrone takes the FG in that situation, too, but I hope I'm wrong about that.

[eball]

Great point. What amazes me is that the announcers are completely oblivious to this sort of thing. I could not hear the announcers at the end of the game yesterday, but I'm sure they did not even suggest that Rivera might consider going for it on 4th down. To the contrary, if he had, they would have been floored and talked about him like he was a riverboat gambler, when the numbers show just the opposite. Something tells me that Marrone takes the FG in that situation, too, but I hope I'm wrong about that.

 

And you would be correct. After the Bills stopped the 3rd down run Dick Stockton said matter-of-factly "and the Panthers will send the FG unit out on the field." Only after the Bills were driving do I believe Barber might have said something about whether the Panthers should have gone for it.

 

I would really like to think Marrone and Hackett know the statistics and would have made the correct decision.

[mannc]

I would really like to think Marrone and Hackett know the statistics and would have made the correct decision.

The reason I think he wouldn't is the dreadful series when he launched two straight fades from the Carolina 2-yard line and did not appear to seriously consider going for it on 4th down, when the analytics show that you should. My sense is that Marrone is not yet confident enough in his decision-making to make the "tough" call to go for it in that situation. Again, this is all just a guess, and I truly hope I'm wrong.

[3rdand12]

And you would be correct. After the Bills stopped the 3rd down run Dick Stockton said matter-of-factly "and the Panthers will send the FG unit out on the field." Only after the Bills were driving do I believe Barber might have said something about whether the Panthers should have gone for it.

 

I would really like to think Marrone and Hackett know the statistics and would have made the correct decision.

eball , something has me thinking they DO know the statistics. seems Marrone has talked more than once that he has the Data in front of him when making decisions.

I may think he is slanting some of his decisions with regard to confidence building and such pyscho babble at this point.

But i really think these guys know the numbers games

[Long Island Phil]

1) Kyle Williams impressed the hell out of me. Coming into this game, I viewed him as a player who was all but finished. Want to talk about effort? The man gave everything he had in this football game.

 

2) Speaking of "Williams," Aaron Williams played very well imo in spite of that one incredibly stupid out of bounds hit.

 

3) There are just so many posters on this great site who do more work on the draft than I do. That said, Robert Woods was my favorite wide receiver in this draft. This kid is going to be great. He loves playing football and is SMART. I am thrilled by his performance today. Aside from his 68 yards receiving, he made no mistakes on special teams. We are going to have fun watching this kid.

 

4) Mario Williams earned his money today. He played at a superstar level, and is my favorite NFL player due to what he does off of the football field. He donates huge dollars to the Houston Police Department. That's enough for me.

 

5) I must say, I am furious about the play calling at the end of the second quarter. They RAN the football in a hurry up, and gave the Panthers the football with 2:07 left. This was idiotic. There is NO FREAKING WAY they should have afforded them an extra time out (the deuce). This cost us points, and almost the game. So who do we blame? The OC or Marrone? Either way, this was totally unacceptable.

 

6)Wake up to find out

that you are the eyes of the world.

The heart has its beaches,

its homeland and thoughts of its own.

Wake now discover that YOU are the song,

that the morning brings.

The heart has its seasons,

its evenings and songs, of its own

 

7) OK, I was seriously pissed off when the Bills attempted a 55 yard field goal. Especially after the miss from 42. What do I know lol? And not for nothing, the last one he made was insane. Watching it, I thought it was 8 or 10 yards short.

 

8) Hey, I never complain about announcers, nor much else about telecasts. But today, I think that the camera man was on drugs. He was missing key shots. Am I the only one who noticed this?

 

9) EJ? His numbers were very good, and his potential is beyond limit. That said, count me as one who believes that he will need to run it himself to achieve his full potential, which imo is good enough to win a superbowl.

 

10) The OL played well today. Imo, the player who did the best work on this unit was Urbik. He looks to be in great physical shape, and he kicked some ass in this football game. Again, the camera work was bad; I welcome opinions on this comment.

 

11) Spiller did his job today. He gave us long gains, key first downs and didn't cough up the football.

 

12) Bills Fans are the best fans of any team in any sport.

 

13) Kiko is going to be a flat out star.

 

14) GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Bill old buddy, old pal.

14 items and no love for DC extraordinaire Mike Pettine???

I am at once flabbergasted befuddled befogged discombobulated and plastered by this omission.

Best of luck this week. The Bills have a new and rising star.

Your friend

Long Island Phil

[Bill from NYC]

 

 

Bill old buddy, old pal.

14 items and no love for DC extraordinaire Mike Pettine???

I am at once flabbergasted befuddled befogged discombobulated and plastered by this omission.

Best of luck this week. The Bills have a new and rising star.

Your friend

Long Island Phil

 

Actually, I was just about to include you in a post about him. You were just so correct about how good this guy is.

[eball]

 

 

Actually, I was just about to include you in a post about him. You were just so correct about how good this guy is.

 

And by extension, what a POS Wannstedt was. Still angers me although if I think about it, had Wanny been even average we might still have him and Chan <shudder>.

[Bill from NYC]

Disappointed with EJ's downfield accuracy. Those missed plays would have put this game away much earlier.

 

Badol, I agree, but I didn't want to harp on it. But, thought #9 was driven by this.

 

Imo, there are just so few "PURE PASSERS" in the league today. I count 4.....Luck, Brady, Brees and Manning. Am I missing anyone? Even Rogers relies to an extent on mobility imo. Russell Wilson is small, and RG111 and Kapernick are just gifted. I know RG is hurt, but he isn't killing anybody with his passing skills at this point. Is Kapernick?

 

John C is one of my favorite posters, but he was outraged at my assertion. I think that EJ can be as good as almost anybody, but he will need the threat of the run to get to the very high level. EJ is huge. He stands tall in the pocket, and he REALLY can run. This threat will soften defenses. I don't see how it could not. Imo, the threat of a run can ONLY help his downfield game but again, what do I know lol?

Edited September 16, 2013 by Bill from NYC

[Astrobot]

More stats from updated ProFootballFocus.com:

• Mario Williams is tied for 2nd in QB Hurries with Robert Mathis. Freeney's first.
  
• Mario Williams leads Aldon Smith 5-4 in the Sacks Race. Kerrigan, J Houston, and Mathis each have 3.
  
• Fred Jackson is PFF's 4th-rated HB overall, behind McCoy, Vereen, and Sproles. What's-His-Initials is 46th. #statslie
  
• Cordy is now PFF's 2nd-ranked overall LT. Pears is 11th ranked RT
  
• Of 97 TEs in the NFL, Chandler has yet to get untracked. He's 90th. Lee Smith is 76th. CB and TE are my P1 and P2.
  
• EJManuel is tied for 2nd with Cutler and Dalton for least-sacked with 1. Sam Bradford is first.
  
• EJManuel3 5th in completion percentage behind Dalton, Romo, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers.
  

[Bill from NYC]

 

 

Bill old buddy, old pal.

14 items and no love for DC extraordinaire Mike Pettine???

I am at once flabbergasted befuddled befogged discombobulated and plastered by this omission.

Best of luck this week. The Bills have a new and rising star.

Your friend

Long Island Phil

 

Phil, I am hoping for Pettine to be an NFL version of the University of Alabama Crimson Tide's Kirby Smart. Saban took him everywhere he went, and he is young and literally brilliant. My fear is that soon, Pettine will get offers to be a head coach, but hopefully I am looking too far ahead.

 

Either way, you were right on the money about Pettine.