Patriots Claim former Bills LB Chris White

[BillsGuyInMalta]

I wonder if Bellicheat has a special interrogation room in their stadium. A dark room with a single wooden chair and a bright overhead light.

 

Never start with the head, the victim gets all fuzzy.

[MattM]

We've had whole threads on this (the Pats*' amazing luck in bye week scheduling) in the past. Some soundbites:

 

1. They recently played the Bills after their bye 4 years in a row--odds of that happening by accident? Approx. 4,000 to 1 (8x8x8x8x8);

 

2. In other recent years they've quite often gotten other "high value" games against either divisional opponents (like the Fins the year after the Fins won the division) or tough out of division games (like the Ravens the year after the Ravens bounced them from the playoffs in rough style at Foxboro, or the Cowboys); and

 

3. Recently they play far fewer team's coming off a bye than the average team (none this year, for ex., vs. the Bills 5 or 6 vs. An expected 2).

 

Make of this what you will, but some of us see enough smoke to suspect fire....

Edited September 5, 2013 by MattM

[MRW]

What signing players their Week 1 opponent releases? Example of this? Enough data could be used to make a strong case. No data = no case.

 

I can think of Fast Freddy Smith and now Chris White as examples. Thats like 7 years apart though.

And the Bills have beaten the Pats only once in that timeframe! Coincidence?

[thefootballexpert]

There is ZERO chance that he sticks with the team.

 

This is Bellichek , plain and simple.

You have to admit it's a smart move on their part. White knows all of the blitz packages the Bills put in during training camp and OTAs. The Pats have no film on the Bills since they have a whole new defense. This is the best way to get some info about the new blitz schemes. SMART move.

[NoSaint]

We've had whole threads on this (the Pats*' amazing luck in bye week scheduling) in the past. Some soundbites:

 

1. They recently played the Bills after their bye 4 years in a row--odds of that happening by accident? Approx. 4,000 to 1 (8x8x8x8x8);

 

2. In other recent years they've quite often gotten other "high value" games against either divisional opponents (like the Fins the year after the Fins won the division) or tough out of division games (like the Ravens the year after the Ravens bounced them from the playoffs in rough style at Foxboro, or the Cowboys); and

 

3. Recently they play far fewer team's coming off a bye than the average team (none this year, for ex., vs. the Bills 5 or 6 vs. An expected 2).

 

Make of this what you will, but some of us see enough smoke to suspect fire....

 

So we have a few of you on this now - lots of "I'm not saying but I'm kinda saying" comments.... But no one has articulated why the pats would want to play the bills out if the bye. Additionally are teams coming off a bye surprisingly close to .500 anyway? I don't have the stat but I remember being surprised when I recently saw it (maybe 2-3 years ago?)

[section122]

 

 

So we have a few of you on this now - lots of "I'm not saying but I'm kinda saying" comments.... But no one has articulated why the pats would want to play the bills out if the bye. Additionally are teams coming off a bye surprisingly close to .500 anyway? I don't have the stat but I remember being surprised when I recently saw it (maybe 2-3 years ago?)

I think you just did articulate why right here. Regardless of what people think about teams being far superior coming of a bye not all teams chalk it up as a guaranteed win. Much like teams that get the first round bye, sometimes teams struggle to "get back into it." What better way to do that than against a team that routinely is bottom of the barrel.

 

I think the point that was made earlier is a good one. The schedule isn't made to screw the Bills as much as it is made without them in mind at all. They are the plug in filler team. Some teams get hooked up *ahem* pats* and others they don't care at all about (the bills).

[Nanker]

 

I think the point that was made earlier is a good one. The schedule isn't made to screw the Bills as much as it is made without them in mind at all. They are the plug in filler team. Some teams get hooked up *ahem* pats* and others they don't care at all about (the bills).

I can't discount entirely that there is a marked anti Bills bias in the small group of NFL schedule makers. It's a very, very small group of people.

[CodeMonkey]

I can't discount entirely that there is a marked anti Bills bias in the small group of NFL schedule makers. It's a very, very small group of people.

What would be the purpose or reason for such a bias?

[Sisyphean Bills]

What would be the purpose or reason for such a bias?

 

Maybe they just enjoy inflicting feelings of persecution or supernatural sabotage on a small minority of NFL fans.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Maybe they just enjoy inflicting feelings of persecution or supernatural sabotage on a small minority of NFL fans.

Love it!

We have got to be the most paranoid fan base in all of sports besides Cubs fans!!!

[chris heff]

 

What would be the purpose or reason for such a bias?

Ever since the smoking man on the X Files said that the Bils would never win a Superbowl, I have believed in a conspiracy.

[MattM]

 

 

So we have a few of you on this now - lots of "I'm not saying but I'm kinda saying" comments.... But no one has articulated why the pats would want to play the bills out if the bye. Additionally are teams coming off a bye surprisingly close to .500 anyway? I don't have the stat but I remember being surprised when I recently saw it (maybe 2-3 years ago?)

 

I said it in my post above--for whatever reason, the Pats* seem to get an inordinate amount of "high value" games off the bye--I.e., division games or games against high quality opponents. Some years (like the two examples I quoted of the Fins and Ravens) it's almost like they got to pick their post-bye opponent. Combine this with things like Spygate, at least two opposing head coaches (Del Rio and Marinelli) calling shenanigans on their QB headsets going out at odd times at Gillette, the NYT article from May, 2007 quoting members of the NFL Competition Committee saying it was one team and one team only (the Pats*) being brought before them with accusations of cheating over and over, a haven for aging vets to resuscitate their careers where at least one of such vets was found to have used HGH (and only found because he was dumb enough to use his own name and address on the drugs), a drug the NFL doesn't test for, a history of one-way suspect officiating in their games, etc. Some of us suspect fire when we see smoke, while others seem to go out of their way to explain it away.

 

Not sure if anyone else here read O'Leary's Spygate book. While a lot of it could have used an editor, I found his statistical evidence chapters the most interesting, including his chapter on how way out of the stat box their home record was--several standard deviations above what you should expect even a great team to be. His implication being they had other ways to cheat at home (like the extra frequency found on their headsets by the NFL and Doug Flutie's related story that he once picked up one of the miked up QB helmets and the coaches were still talking to the QB after the 15 second cutoff)..,,

[NoSaint]

 

 

I said it in my post above--for whatever reason, the Pats* seem to get an inordinate amount of "high value" games off the bye--I.e., division games or games against high quality opponents. Some years (like the two examples I quoted of the Fins and Ravens) it's almost like they got to pick their post-bye opponent. Combine this with things like Spygate, at least two opposing head coaches (Del Rio and Marinelli) calling shenanigans on their QB headsets going out at odd times at Gillette, the NYT article from May, 2007 quoting members of the NFL Competition Committee saying it was one team and one team only (the Pats*) being brought before them with accusations of cheating over and over, a haven for aging vets to resuscitate their careers where at least one of such vets was found to have used HGH (and only found because he was dumb enough to use his own name and address on the drugs), a drug the NFL doesn't test for, a history of one-way suspect officiating in their games, etc. Some of us suspect fire when we see smoke, while others seem to go out of their way to explain it away.

 

Not sure if anyone else here read O'Leary's Spygate book. While a lot of it could have used an editor, I found his statistical evidence chapters the most interesting, including his chapter on how way out of the stat box their home record was--several standard deviations above what you should expect even a great team to be. His implication being they had other ways to cheat at home (like the extra frequency found on their headsets by the NFL and Doug Flutie's related story that he once picked up one of the miked up QB helmets and the coaches were still talking to the QB after the 15 second cutoff)..,,

 

While you call us high value others call us a pushover. If we go with us being a high value, along with the jets and dolphins, as well as the 2 first place afc teams that they play as division winner, and of course the fact that we play 2 full divisions with atleast 1 more playoff team in each you are putting up to 12 games in the high value category. Makes sense they'd regularly see a high value opponent with such a liberal grouping. Who is low value for them this year? The bucs and panthers?

 

Further it doesn't address that its still pretty close to 50-50 odds to win after the bye.... which would portray no statistical advantage coming out of a bye (quick search showed a 20 year run ending a couple seasons ago put it at a 52-48 split which in one year with 32 teams 16-16 being expected outcome just picking a random game for each team - if you did it after the bye it would 16.5 -15.5, to get to even numbers, over two years that game averages out to 33-31 for the team coming off the bye. Are we at a disadvantage or are we actually catching some teams at a disorganized out of routine state? Some teams struggle after the bye in fact.

 

Sidenote: The Andy Reid eagles going undefeated after the bye accounts for a pretty good portion of the variation off straight 50% odds to win.

 

 

Proves nothing really but some hard numbers to roll around

[MattM]

No Saint--you've given an explanation on the high value games point, but even so, they still seem to get way more "high value" games post-bye than we do even taking a first place schedule into account (that's about 3 more of such games a year). How often have we gotten a division opponent after our bye? These things should even out over time were they truly random, but they don't with the Pats*.

 

How about how the Pats* play no one who has longer rest than they do this year while we play something like 5 or 7 team's with extra rest? Look at last year, too, for a similar disparity. Same point.

 

Finally, I wouldn't expect too radical a departure above .500 post-bye simply because (a) the League strives for parity and (b) your baseline here by definition is .500. Ask any coach or player whether it's an advantage or not to get an extra 3 days or a week to rest up and plan for someone and let me know what they think....

[Nanker]

What would be the purpose or reason for such a bias?

 

 

 

You seriously think that the schedule makers are not fans of any particular team?

Wow!

 

Ever since the smoking man on the X Files said that the Bils would never win a Superbowl, I have believed in a conspiracy.

 

[NoSaint]

No Saint--you've given an explanation on the high value games point, but even so, they still seem to get way more "high value" games post-bye than we do even taking a first place schedule into account (that's about 3 more of such games a year). How often have we gotten a division opponent after our bye? These things should even out over time were they truly random, but they don't with the Pats*.

 

How about how the Pats* play no one who has longer rest than they do this year while we play something like 5 or 7 team's with extra rest? Look at last year, too, for a similar disparity. Same point.

 

Finally, I wouldn't expect too radical a departure above .500 post-bye simply because (a) the League strives for parity and (b) your baseline here by definition is .500. Ask any coach or player whether it's an advantage or not to get an extra 3 days or a week to rest up and plan for someone and let me know what they think....

 

Since 2008 the redskins are the only non Afc team we've played off the bye. Of those Afc teams only one missed the playoffs and was 8-8. We have had conference games against playoff teams. As a team fighting to get in those are pretty big. In hindsight many meant little, but could've been huge. Heck, even 07 was the ravens though they weren't very good that year.

 

 

As to the latter I think it's situational. Sometimes it's a huge help to get a little rest and extra game planning. Other times teams struggle with losing momentum, routines, etc.... Take a week off work and sometimes your a little clunky on things when you get back. The fact that its so close to .500 should say a lot about how big (or small) an advantage it is regardless of what common sense says it should be. I often use the saints as I see a ton of info on them but for Payton's first couple years the team struggled finding their groove after byes and there was often debate over how to handle them with regards to practice and workouts. On the flipside Andy Reid won something like 12 or 13 straight.

 

 

While its odd how its worked out, I'm not really sure what it means or if its significant.

Edited September 7, 2013 by NoSaint

[BillsWatch]

Back to point (Chris White) - think he will be active or only a scout player (healthy scrub) or even just cut before opener?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Back to point (Chris White) - think he will be active or only a scout player (healthy scrub) or even just cut before opener?

 

He's an excellent kick coverage guy and solid on special teams elsewhere.

 

He's also the kind of cerebral "coach on the field" player that Belichick values.

 

Again I wouldn't be surprised if his cup of coffee in New England included a warmup or two.

[ny33]

Anyone else surprised that White is still a Patriot?

[NoSaint]

Anyone else surprised that White is still a Patriot?

 

not particularly.