2010 Draft Revisited

[BillsBytheBay]

CJ is my favorite bill. I can't remember the last time we had a player like him. I stand up every time he touches the ball. If we passed a caliber player like he is, it would have been a mistake.

[OCinBuffalo]

Old draft reality:

You have to start with the lines, because we are going to play the West Coast or power running game, and so are they. We'll pass with 1-2 TEs in the game, and we have a FB as well.

 

New draft reality:

The lines are still important, but nowhere near as important as they once were, with the rise of mobile QBs, and spread offenses that get the ball out in 3 seconds or less. This means that the run is now the change up that the pass used to be.

 

Old draft reality:

You only need 1 good CB, in case the other team has Jerry Rice, as you can largely scheme away any weaknesses you have. As long as your D line is dominant, and your LBs can cover/can rush, you can live off of having a so-so secondary(see: the Dallas Cowboy defense of the 90s under Dave Wannstedt)

 

New draft reality:

1. There aren't enough players playing CB in the entire country right now. Most of the guys who used to play that position are playing: basketball. Thus, because there are less quality players at CB, you are going to bust more often than not when you pick one.

 

2. Meanwhile, 3 WR sets are the BASE offense. That means the starting D has 3 CBs on it. It ain't enough to have a good #1 and a decent #2 anymore. You need 3 decent ones.

 

3. The number of CB busts means you have to devote more resources to the position than you want to, and they have to be higher resources.

 

You add 1-3 and you get: If you have a chance to draft a sure thing at CB by taking one in the 1st? You do it, every single time. If you can't do that, you draft multiple DBs in the lower rounds, because maybe, just maybe, you get what you MUST HAVE.

 

Old Draft Reality:

The Pittsburgh Steeler/New England Patriots LBs are the class of the league, that's why they win, and that's why they keep drafting them.

 

New Draft Reality:

You need 1-2 good LBs, not 3-4. You can afford to use specialists, you only need 1-2 of them to be 3 down players.

 

Same old Same old:

You have to have a good D line, because not only do teams still run the ball, they also run the wildcat, the spread, the read option...the.....

 

Inescapable Conclusion:

If we are taking draft resources from anywhere, to deal with the CB problem, and to a lesser degree S problem, it should be the LB position. The need for O line hasn't changed much. The need for WRs has gone down, because now you are attacking with 3+ of them, but only 1 needs to be open. It's like the terror thing: the offense only needs to be right in one place, while the CBs need to be right everywhere. The need for a old school, dual role TE is practically gone. You can specialize. The need for QB has gone up, even higher than it was.

 

But above all: you have to have a pass rush. The difference between playoffs and not is best defined by pass rush or not.

Edited August 23, 2013 by OCinBuffalo

[BADOLBILZ]

Elite CBs are like elite DEs these days - worthy of first round picks.

 

Name the #1 cornerback on the teams in these SB matchups

 

Ravens/Niners

Pats/Giants

Steelers/Packers

Steelers/Cardinals

Pats/Giants

 

Evidence suggests that individual cornerback play is overrated.

 

The pass rushers for most of those teams are a whole lot easier to identify.

 

I know this won't sway some of the hard heads in this thread but in the NFL you are what your record says you are.....and that goes for the quality of cornerbacks on elite teams as well.

 

The logic that the NFL is a passing league now.......therefore you need more corners now than ever.....may be true. But where you need quality is in your pass rush. Elite DE's/pass rushers are more valuable than elite cornerbacks. The first round is where you seek quality.

[Kelly the Dog]

Name the #1 cornerback on the teams in these SB matchups

 

Ravens/Niners

Pats/Giants

Steelers/Packers

Steelers/Cardinals

Pats/Giants

 

Evidence suggests that individual cornerback play is overrated.

 

The pass rushers for most of those teams are a whole lot easier to identify.

 

I know this won't sway some of the hard heads in this thread but in the NFL you are what your record says you are.....and that goes for the quality of cornerbacks on elite teams as well.

 

The logic that the NFL is a passing league now.......therefore you need more corners now than ever.....may be true. But where you need quality is in your pass rush. Elite DE's/pass rushers are more valuable than elite cornerbacks. The first round is where you seek quality.

I doubt you would find anyone that wouldn't agree that a great or good pass rusher is more important than a great or good CB. But great and good pass rushers are hard to find, and a good to great CB is more important than an average pass rusher, who gives you very little, as evidenced by the average pass rushers the Bills have had the last 15 years.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I know this won't sway some of the hard heads in this thread but in the NFL you are what your record says you are.....

 

What hard heads would disagree with the statement that "you are what your record says you are?"

 

I don't remember anyone here arguing that the Bills have drafted well or that the Bills are better than their record. Do you?

 

On another point you say that pass rushers are more important than cornerbacks. Can I assume you believe that pass rushers are more important than running backs? If so does that mean that Maybin was a better pick than Spiller?

 

Or does your last line about "The first round is where you seek quality" mean that Spiller was a better pick?

Edited August 23, 2013 by San Jose Bills Fan

[zazie]

What hard heads would disagree with the statement that "you are what your record says you are?"

 

I don't remember anyone here arguing that the Bills have drafted well or that the Bills are better than their record. Do you?

 

On another point you say that pass rushers are more important than cornerbacks. Can I assume you believe that pass rushers are more important than running backs? If so does that mean that Maybin was a better pick than Spiller?

 

Or does your last line about "The first round is where you seek quality" mean that Spiller was a better pick?

Orakpo may have been better than Spiller as a pick........

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Orakpo may have been better than Spiller as a pick........

 

Different draft though.

 

I'm judging Spiller relative to his classmates.

 

And even then, I'd take Spiller over Orakpo although it is a close call.

[BillsBytheBay]

 

 

Different draft though.

 

I'm judging Spiller relative to his classmates.

 

And even then, I'd take Spiller over Orakpo although it is a close call.

should have been orakpo, over maybin. That draft will haunt me.

[JohnC]

John, I hope that you know how much I appreciate our dialogue. I have in fact for some time. Where we differ is wrt the philosophy of building a football team, and this is really OK.

I think that Spiller is a very good player. I am more skeptical wrt Gilmore, but I get the potential.

 

But John, I am not getting any younger, and I want the Bills to win football games. And, I was extremely happy with this draft. They got a QB who has tons of potential AND an extra 2nd and 7th. On this RARE occasion, they ran away from running backs and defensive backs.

 

This is how to build a winning team my friend.

 

Bill, I worry for you. Your memory is going bad. Not a good sign. The Bills drafted two safeties in this draft.

 

I also am excited about this draft class. Regardless of the team's record if EJ turns out to be a franchise qb then this was a quality draft. The trading down and acquiring another second round pick for Kiko was a nifty maneuver. That is not the standard stolid Bills drafting approach.

 

My major concern is the OL. It concerns me very much. The front office knew they weren't going to sign Levitre (your boy) yet they did very little to search the market for a better replacement. Also, I'm not too enamored with Pears at RT. He has slow feet and is too sluggish as an athlete.

 

Other than your stubborn fixation on the Spiller pick you are okay by me! LOL

[BADOLBILZ]

I doubt you would find anyone that wouldn't agree that a great or good pass rusher is more important than a great or good CB. But great and good pass rushers are hard to find, and a good to great CB is more important than an average pass rusher, who gives you very little, as evidenced by the average pass rushers the Bills have had the last 15 years.

 

I think I would find a lot of people on here who would rate a top CB's value on par with a top pass rusher. There seems to be a natural instinct in fans that don't really see the whole field to blame cornerbacks for every completion. Despite the fact that you can expect over half of the passes thrown against your team to be completed, it is like each completion is a dagger. I hear it all day in the stands. The audible complaints about cornerback play far exceed the complaints about a lack of pass rush even when the Bills had Clements, Winfield and McGee on the field at the same time.

 

And regarding my reply to Dave, you aren't looking for average anything in round 1, whether it is a pass rusher or a CB.

 

I am actually of the belief that the shutdown cornerback was more important back when you didn't need as many CB's on the field. Back in those days, they made a big difference. Now, on their best day they are usually just taking away one of 5 legitimate receiving options.

 

Everyone wants a shutdown but I don't think they provide bang for the buck, whether that is salary cap space or spending high draft picks.

 

I don't know if the elite teams intentionally subscribe to the model that is working for them or not because in many cases, they have spent early round picks on CB's and had them fail and ended up succeeding with their lesser invested DB's.

 

But it's working.

 

One of the aspects that detractors to my opinions about using a lot of first round picks on DB's and RB's miss is that by picking that low hanging fruit early, you often end up passing on easy evaluations later in the draft. The amount of late round RB's that make big impacts in the NFL is higher than any other position, but the Bills never get to hit that homerun because they have other needs to fill. In the draft, one thing leads to another. That's why, IMO, you do the hard work early and the easy work LAST.

 

As that pertains to CB's, maybe the best idea is to get a pass rush and then use those mid round picks on guys that can give you a couple seconds of decent coverage.

 

I don't know if there is a moneyball equivalent to the NFL because there are so few actual plays in a season compared to a sport like baseball.....but I think there is statistical analysis available that will tell you that if a QB has to release the ball in a short amount of time that a CB with average measurables/ability is more than adequate to defend that pass. If a CB can be marginalized like that, they are a commodity item, not a specialty item.

[Bill from NYC]

Bill, I worry for you. Your memory is going bad. Not a good sign. The Bills drafted two safeties in this draft.

 

My major concern is the OL. It concerns me very much. The front office knew they weren't going to sign Levitre (your boy) yet they did very little to search the market for a better replacement. Also, I'm not too enamored with Pears at RT. He has slow feet and is too sluggish as an athlete.

 

Using a 4th and a 5th on two safeties is a good move imo. If even one of them can play, at least it isn't a waste of prime resources.

 

As for Mr. Levitre, I am not the type to say "I told you so." lol

 

On the way to work, I heard on Sirius that the Bills were having trade talks about Byrd with multiple teams. Sorry, but I would rather have Levitre on the squad than be in this situation.

[dave mcbride]

Name the #1 cornerback on the teams in these SB matchups

 

Ravens/Niners

Pats/Giants

Steelers/Packers

Steelers/Cardinals

Pats/Giants

 

Evidence suggests that individual cornerback play is overrated.

 

The pass rushers for most of those teams are a whole lot easier to identify.

 

I know this won't sway some of the hard heads in this thread but in the NFL you are what your record says you are.....and that goes for the quality of cornerbacks on elite teams as well.

 

The logic that the NFL is a passing league now.......therefore you need more corners now than ever.....may be true. But where you need quality is in your pass rush. Elite DE's/pass rushers are more valuable than elite cornerbacks. The first round is where you seek quality.

Actually, I knew off the top of my head who the #1 CBs were for all of these teams. Speaking of which, if Asante Samuel catches that ball, it's game over. A few plays later, Ellis Hobbs' blown coverage against Plaxico led to an easy pass-and-catch for Manning. A better CB makes a better play there. Also, the Giants got to that Super Bowl because of a great play by Corey Webster in OT. Finally, Jimmy Smith was one of the two parties in one of the most controversial plays of any super bowl last season.

 

As for the various teams:

 

2012:

Ravens starting CBs - 5th rounder, 7th rounder, and 1st rounder near the end of the season (Smith)

Niners - 1st rounder (9th overall) and a 5th rounder

 

2011:

Pats: 1st rounder and a UDFA

Giants: 1st rounder and 2nd rounder

 

2010:

GB: 1st rounder and a UDFA

Pitt: 2nd rounder and 4th rounder

 

2009:

Saints: (essentially 3 starters) - 1st rounder, 2nd rounder, and a UDFA

Colts: 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and UDFA

 

2008:

Pitt: 2nd rounder and 4th rounder

Arizona: 1st rounder, 3rd rounder, and a UDFA

 

2007:

Pats: 3rd rounder and 4th rounder

Giants: 1st rounder and second rounder

 

Having said all of this, I'd take an elite DE over an elite CB. I'd take an elite CB over a good DE, however. Darrelle Revis is more valuable than Aaron Schobel.

 

As for who is more easy to notice, Badol, come on. If the CB is covering his guy well, you never see him on the screen. You always see the DE given the way that football appears on TV. We all saw a lot more of Chris Kelsay than Terrence McGee over the years.

Edited August 23, 2013 by dave mcbride

[Sisyphean Bills]

Seems to me there is truth to both sides. The Bills have drafted very poorly. They were in the same cycle as the San Francisco 49ers for a long time, but the 49ers are back on top and have a roster crammed with talent. The Bills are starting over again.

 

The Bills have gone down the path of replacing one RB or CB with a rookie every few years over and over again ad nauseum and it hasn't built a team. Replacing your good players with a cheaper player at the same position every 3 years is the definition of treading water.

 

Further, the Bills have also cyclically hired new middle management and failed to break the cycle of ineptitude. One wonders how an organization can continue to make such apparent bad hires or if these people are the public fodder, the sacrificial lambs brought before the mobs, powerless to change entrenched policies and practices that neuter their ability to compete on the football field. Either way, the executives of the organization, the guys that keep getting promoted with total disregard for the on-field results, no doubt enjoy their Teflon status.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The 2010 Draft has been cited frequently as one of the worst in recent memory, and as evidence of Buddy Nix's incompetence as a GM.

 

1st -- Spiller

2nd -- Troup

3rd -- Carrington

4th -- Easley

6th -- Moats

 

Spiller is a budding superstar. Carrington is a starter poised for a breakout year. Moats is a 2nd string ILB and ST contributor. Easley appears to finally be healthy and could be the 5th or 6th WR. Troup is healthy but likely faces the longest odds to make the roster in the DL rotation.

 

It's hard to comment with respect to Troup and Easley because their careers have never really gotten started because of injury. Moats and Carrington were arguably miscast by the previous coaching staff, and Spiller was underutilized.

 

I dare say the possibility exists that by the end of the 2013 season, this draft will be looked back upon quite fondly by fans of the Buffalo Bills.

 

Could turn out it was a good draft but players were set back by coaching turmoil and poor player development.

 

Moats and Carrington switched positions maybe thrice now in their 4 year careers and spiller was underutilized in favor of Freddy. Remember he was even put in th WR unit for a while.

 

Troupe had injury issues so he's maybe a disappointment and Easley as a fourth rounder still even being on a roster likely beats the average outcome there as enough new players seem to come in every year to knock out the bottom 15-20% of players.

[JohnC]

Using a 4th and a 5th on two safeties is a good move imo. If even one of them can play, at least it isn't a waste of prime resources.

 

As for Mr. Levitre, I am not the type to say "I told you so." lol

 

You are as much as an "I told you so guy as I am." LOL

 

On the way to work, I heard on Sirius that the Bills were having trade talks about Byrd with multiple teams. Sorry, but I would rather have Levitre on the squad than be in this situation.

 

Some of the smart posters on this board have proposed a trade with KC in which we deal Byrd for OT Branden Albert. What say you? I like Byrd a lot but if he is disgruntled and the organization is not signing him to a long term deal I would be for it.

Edited August 23, 2013 by JohnC

[l< j]

All these strongly worded arguments and counter arguments, with people staking out firm positions and refusing to give ground. And not a single ad hominem attack, insinuation that someone on the other side is a P*ts fan, or condescending comment about a poster's alleged knowledge of the game to be found.

 

This place is slipping. Can't the moderators step in here?

[BADOLBILZ]

Actually, I knew off the top of my head who the #1 CBs were for all of these teams. Speaking of which, if Asante Samuel catches that ball, it's game over. A few plays later, Ellis Hobbs' blown coverage against Plaxico led to an easy pass-and-catch for Manning. A better CB makes a better play there. Also, the Giants got to that Super Bowl because of a great play by Corey Webster in OT. Finally, Jimmy Smith was one of the two parties in one of the most controversial plays of any super bowl last season.

 

As for the various teams:

 

2012:

Ravens starting CBs - 5th rounder, 7th rounder, and 1st rounder near the end of the season (Smith)

Niners - 1st rounder (9th overall) and a 5th rounder

 

2011:

Pats: 1st rounder and a UDFA

Giants: 1st rounder and 2nd rounder

 

2010:

GB: 1st rounder and a UDFA

Pitt: 2nd rounder and 4th rounder

 

2009:

Saints: (essentially 3 starters) - 1st rounder, 2nd rounder, and a UDFA

Colts: 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and UDFA

 

2008:

Pitt: 2nd rounder and 4th rounder

Arizona: 1st rounder, 3rd rounder, and a UDFA

 

2007:

Pats: 3rd rounder and 4th rounder

Giants: 1st rounder and second rounder

 

Having said all of this, I'd take an elite DE over an elite CB. I'd take an elite CB over a good DE, however. Darrelle Revis is more valuable than Aaron Schobel.

 

As for who is more easy to notice, Badol, come on. If the CB is covering his guy well, you never see him on the screen. You always see the DE given the way that football appears on TV. We all saw a lot more of Chris Kelsay than Terrence McGee over the years.

 

Like I said, those teams didn't exactly plan it that way but they won WITHOUT elite cornerback play.

 

And this has been going on for a long time now.

 

Like it or not, this is not a tiny sample size.

 

The record is what it says it is.

 

Two contrasting stories from the SB teams....Ravens lose Ladairus Webb, their best corner and march on to the SB without a hitch. Justin Smith injured.....Niners D gets exposed in championship game and SB.

 

Pass rush far exceeds coverage in importance.

 

As for my mention of not seeing the field, it wasn't anything to do with having a picture of the entire field of players, but rather just not understanding why things are happening on the field.

[dave mcbride]

Like I said, those teams didn't exactly plan it that way but they won WITHOUT elite cornerback play.

 

And this has been going on for a long time now.

 

Like it or not, this is not a tiny sample size.

 

The record is what it says it is.

 

Two contrasting stories from the SB teams....Ravens lose Ladairus Webb, their best corner and march on to the SB without a hitch. Justin Smith injured.....Niners D gets exposed in championship game and SB.

 

Pass rush far exceeds coverage in importance.

 

As for my mention of not seeing the field, it wasn't anything to do with having a picture of the entire field of players, but rather just not understanding why things are happening on the field.

 

What's your point about last year's SB? The Niners ran wild in the second half, and it came down to one final play in which the CB made the crucial defensive stop (and it wasn't a hold, fwiw). The Niners outyarded the Ravens 468-367. They had more first downs too. The argument doesn't wash with regard to the SB.

 

The Niners' D was exposed in the championship game primarily because of massive secondary breakdowns early on, not just the lack of a pass rush. I remember it clear as day. I'm not saying, however, that the lack of a healthy Justin Smith (a great player) didn't hurt them. He's a difference maker when healthy. The Falcons racked up 477 yards.

 

EDIT: I do realize that Ngata went down in the second half. He's not really a pass rusher, but he's certainly a difference maker.

Edited August 23, 2013 by dave mcbride

[Sisyphean Bills]

Haven't all the rule changes truly diminished the impact of a "shut down corner"? Why invest top draft picks or big pieces of the cap in a position that, by continued rule changes, has been eroded and marginalized?

[yungmack]

You could have a secondary filled with All Pro talent, but if your line stinks you are going to get burned. And vice versa. Football is unique among team sports in that it truly requires excellent team play in order for an individual to shine. That's the great paradox of this game. In baseball, basketball, even hockey and soccer, a talented player on a lousy team can still stand out & have a great career. But no receiver, for example, can put up great numbers w/o having a good QB. That's why switching teams can often be a tricky thing for FAs & why players who take a long view will sometimes take less money to stay in a situation where they have been thriving.

 

My point here is that a good team tries to draft & sign the best talent available at every position knowing that even the lowly long snapper can have a disastrous impact on your season.