2010 Draft Revisited

[dave mcbride]

Interesting factoid about running backs -- of the 30 rushers who have reached 1700 yards in NFL history (I'm giving an extra yard to Michael Turner, who had 1,699 in 2008) not one team that those backs played on finished below .500 except for one - the 1985 Falcons team that Gerald Riggs played for. Only one other team finished at .500 - Chris Johnson's 2009 Titans team. The other 28 teams finished above .500.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush_yds_single_season.htm

[papazoid]

 

 

I was about to throw my remote through my TV when that pick was announced, esp. because we needed a TE at that point. Imagine Spiller and Gronk. Troup was a terrible pick. I hope he proves me wrong. Perhaps Pettine can do something with him. Being healthy and having an actual D-coordinator could go a long way.

 

 

 

I agree. That was Nix's problem. Chan was a terrible talent evaluator for the most part. Thiggy, etc.

 

here's a scary thought.....Gronk is so good that Fitz would probably still be the QB. Troup is a bust and will likely be cut.

[JohnC]

I don't think Badolbeelz is saying that Spiller isn't good - he's criticizing the philosophy that led the Bills to take an RB rather than attempting to solve the real problem (QB). That's the issue.

 

I understand what he is getting at. What I am saying is that even given the valid argument that there could have been a better team building approach to their drafting strategy I am not going to be too critical of selecting a player who turns out to be one of the better players in the league, regardless of position. In addition, if Nix would have come up with a franchise qb pick after CJ's selection when they were available (not necessarily in that draft year) the Spiller pick would have been even a better pick from a team building and competitive standpoint.

 

Correct me if I am wrong but I have read accounts where there were teams offering a third round pick for Lynch when later on Nix traded Lynch to Seattle for a fourth round pick?

[KOKBILLS]

I dare say the possibility exists that by the end of the 2013 season, this draft will be looked back upon quite fondly by fans of the Buffalo Bills.

 

Could be!!!...Good point...

[Koufax]

Outside of Spiller, that draft was garbage and he took nearly two years to develop. The 2013 draft however looks much more promising from the start. If Manuel becomes a legit starter it could be a home run.

 

No. Go scan through "drafts" that year for teams, and show me how many have a star, a good starter, and a couple role players.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?teamId=0200&type=team

 

You always want perfection with a draft, and want to know it is perfection a year or two in, but what you are looking at is how much five year contributions you get, and if some players become cornerstones who are around well past that five year window.

 

I am fine with this draft, and it has the potential to brighten even further before the five year window is up.

[BetterNextYearRight?]

Looking back at it I remember being so aggravated when the Spiller pick was announced. Like a poster before me had said it was just a poor indication of team building, don't get me wrong I agree with the "Best over Need" approach when it comes to the draft but at times you need to write a position off and that year it seemed RB should have been the least of our worries.

 

Hopefully Carrington can put up a good season and prove his supporters right. Having him perform up to his potential could have a big impact on our defense and depth never ever hurts.

 

Troup seems to be on his last chance, but haven't reports from camp been saying that he's impressing? Haven't seen much from him in preseason so far but we don't know how much weight the new staff places in these games over camp.

 

The later picks in the draft were just so bad though. Batten and Wang were horrible, even for later round picks. Gotta find a back-up or utility player in there somewhere.

 

 

There was some pretty decent depth in that draft looking back at it. I remember being so high on Tony Pike and Earl Thomas. Pike I was so wrong with......

[yungmack]

Spiller is an elite talent and with a couple of breaks going his way, he may very well wind up in the Hall and I love that he's on the Bills team. That said, I get those people who say he was a luxury pick. At that time, Lynch and Jackson were on the roster, and there were some huge holes that I think should have been filled ahead of another RB.

 

As to Nix's drafting record, if you're going to be fair you need to put other teams under the microscope as well. You also need to give credit for changing how the Bills were viewed around the league. If you remember, just over three short years ago they couldn't even get a top candidate to come in for the head coaching opening. When Chan was let go, over 20 people called for interviews in the first 24 hours if news reports from last winter are to be believed. And every candidate the Bills wanted to talk with actually met with them. That's a huge turnaround. I'm sure that the team has been able to resign its own players and some better free agents because the perception of the franchise improved greatly under Nix.

 

BTW, McBride's post is very enlightening.

[GG]

Spiller is an elite talent and with a couple of breaks going his way, he may very well wind up in the Hall and I love that he's on the Bills team. That said, I get those people who say he was a luxury pick. At that time, Lynch and Jackson were on the roster, and there were some huge holes that I think should have been filled ahead of another RB.

 

As to Nix's drafting record, if you're going to be fair you need to put other teams under the microscope as well. You also need to give credit for changing how the Bills were viewed around the league. If you remember, just over three short years ago they couldn't even get a top candidate to come in for the head coaching opening. When Chan was let go, over 20 people called for interviews in the first 24 hours if news reports from last winter are to be believed. And every candidate the Bills wanted to talk with actually met with them. That's a huge turnaround. I'm sure that the team has been able to resign its own players and some better free agents because the perception of the franchise improved greatly under Nix.

 

BTW, McBride's post is very enlightening.

 

Aren't you forgetting a little tidbit in the chronology of the change at OBD that coincided with Gailey's firing and the sudden interest in the Bills coaching job?

[mousetrap08]

The topic is 2010 so let's stick with that.

 

You say garbage, I suppose because the players haven't developed quickly enough for your liking? If at the end of the day, though, you have a superstar, another solid starter, and 2-3 other significant contributors is that really a "garbage" draft?

Like the old saying one mans garbage is another mans treasure.

[yungmack]

Aren't you forgetting a little tidbit in the chronology of the change at OBD that coincided with Gailey's firing and the sudden interest in the Bills coaching job?

What is it you're talking about?

[GG]

What is it you're talking about?

 

Something about a power shift above the GM position?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

My criticism of the Spiller pick was the same then.......look it up if you wish. It wasn't going to matter if he ran for 1600 yards and it wasn't going to matter if Marshawn Lynch ever played another down. The fact that he hasn't and Lynch has been far more productive is relevant but not important.

 

My approach to the draft is that it is an ongoing, team building process. The Bills look at each draft as an event. More often than not, it is about getting the most plug and play ready player they can get in round one.....which has lead them time and again to the RB and DB positions. A critical flaw in the logic regarding the Spiller selection is that the Bills NEEDED a running back because running back A and B were not long term solutions. I think you boys have been sipping the RB Kool Aid a bit too long. You don't need elite talent at RB. It is never that big of a need because it is not how the game is won any longer. GET IT THRU THICK SKULLS.

 

I'm well aware that you criticized the Spiller pick at the time. That's why I'm suggesting that your criticism of the pick is obsolete. It has been proven wrong, IMO.

 

The reason that the Bills team building has been incoherent is because of organizational instability. It goes without saying that an unstable and poorly run organization will not excel in team building.

 

You've ignored my assertion that CJ is not simply a running back. He's a weapon. He's a home run hitter. He's a game changer.

 

RB's and DB's 50% of the time? QB's and OT's rarely? Short term gratification syndrome. A few years later, they were inevitably back at that well because the RB and DB positions aren't valued, long term building blocks and so large second contracts are often not justifiable. See your example.....Reggie Bush. If he is so valuable, why couldn't he find a big money job last offseason? Mario Williams....critically.......was selected ahead of him.....he could go on the open market and get $10M+ per year right now. Positional value matters, don't be ignorant and pretend it doesn't.

 

I mentioned Reggie Bush because like CJ he was highly-drafted due to his explosiveness. Obviously I wasn't using Bush as an example of why a team should draft a running back. Bush has been a disappointment for being the 2nd pick overall. He has not lived up to expectations. He was expected to be a game changer. In that sense both of these players are viewed almost as wide receivers than as running backs because they can score on any play. It's the same reason Barry Sanders was drafted 3rd overall. Home run hitter.

 

As for Bulaga, I wasn't a big fan, but I would have been fine with that pick because he is a good lineman and the Bills need those kind of 10 year building blocks. He blew out a knee this spring but he was slated to be the left tackle for the best quarterback in the NFL this year so it's not like we are talking about a guy who has done less than Spiller in his career. CJ had a spectacular year last year, but I think you guys seem to forget about the general body of work.

 

Bulaga was going to play left tackle yes. A position he had never played before and had never proven that he could play in the NFL.

 

IMO if you make picks like Bulaga with the 9th pick overall, your team will never improve.

 

As far as Spiller and his "general body of work," the optimism about the Spiller pick is based more on expectations of the future than satisfaction with the past. After last season people finally see what Nix and Gailey saw in him when they drafted him. This is exciting.

 

Finally, there are dogmatic rules regarding the draft for instance, strict adherence to positional values.

 

However drafting is an art, like many things in life. You have to know when to follow rules and when not to. You can't simply go to a poker table and pledge to play tight all the time thinking your going to win. It doesn't work that way.

 

Sometimes a great pick is as simple as getting the best football player regardless of position.

[BADOLBILZ]

Bulaga was going to play left tackle yes. A position he had never played before and had never proven that he could play in the NFL.

 

IMO if you make picks like Bulaga with the 9th pick overall, your team will never improve.

 

As far as Spiller and his "general body of work," the optimism about the Spiller pick is based more on expectations of the future than satisfaction with the past. After last season people finally see what Nix and Gailey saw in him when they drafted him. This is exciting.

 

Finally, there are dogmatic rules regarding the draft for instance, strict adherence to positional values.

 

However drafting is an art, like many things in life. You have to know when to follow rules and when not to. You can't simply go to a poker table and pledge to play tight all the time thinking your going to win. It doesn't work that way.

 

Sometimes a great pick is as simple as getting the best football player regardless of position.

 

 

I think you don't understand the meaning of obsolete, but that nonsense aside, I will agree that if the Spiller pick was made "in a vacuum" you would be right. Otherwise, it was another predictably poor decision that resulted in the team getting a good player. Which is actually something the Bills have done routinely with regard to RB's and DB's. You saw that list of 1st round(and a couple second round) RB's didn't you? Which one of those guys wasn't a good player? Did that justify all of those selections? The organizations record suggests very much otherwise. You can't keep going to that well every few years, even if that pick becomes a 10,000 yard career rusher like Willis McGahee or a sensational young first team All Pro like Marshawn Lynch.

 

As for the incoherence of the Bills approach to team building.....it's not because of instability. The ownership of this team has been the HEIGHT of stability. Unfortunately, Ralph continually made the SAME mistakes over, and over and over for the past half century. He has a "type" that he wants as a coach, and that type is the weak kind that would allow him to meddle with the team. If you think that 50% first round RB's and DB's over a 40+ year period was a coincidence caused by A LACK of stability, then you really don't get how the Buffalo Bills franchise has been run.

 

This year, for the first time Ralph is reportedly no longer part of the day to day operations and coincidentally, for the first time since 1960 the Bills drafted a QB with their first pick in any draft. (Yeah, they traded their actual first pick, but I will take it.) That's imporant because CJ Spiller can run all he wants and this team will not have success without high quality QB play.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

I think you don't understand the meaning of obsolete, but that nonsense aside, I will agree that if the Spiller pick was made "in a vacuum" you would be right. Otherwise, it was another predictably poor decision that resulted in the team getting a good player. Which is actually something the Bills have done routinely with regard to RB's and DB's. You saw that list of 1st round(and a couple second round) RB's didn't you? Which one of those guys wasn't a good player? Did that justify all of those selections? The organizations record suggests very much otherwise. You can't keep going to that well every few years, even if that pick becomes a 10,000 yard career rusher like Willis McGahee or a sensational young first team All Pro like Marshawn Lynch.

 

As for the incoherence of the Bills approach to team building.....it's not because of instability. The ownership of this team has been the HEIGHT of stability. Unfortunately, Ralph continually made the SAME mistakes over, and over and over for the past half century. He has a "type" that he wants as a coach, and that type is the weak kind that would allow him to meddle with the team. If you think that 50% first round RB's and DB's over a 40+ year period was a coincidence caused by A LACK of stability, then you really don't get how the Buffalo Bills franchise has been run.

 

This year, for the first time Ralph is reportedly no longer part of the day to day operations and coincidentally, for the first time since 1960 the Bills drafted a QB with their first pick in any draft. (Yeah, they traded their actual first pick, but I will take it.) That's imporant because CJ Spiller can run all he wants and this team will not have success without high quality QB play.

When the Bills first started being good, they drafted a RB #1, then two years later drafted a RB #2 (he was their top pick though) followed by four out of five consecutive years drafting a CB #1.

 

Granted, they had a better roster overall at that time, than in the last 15 years of sucktitude, but it is directly opposite of good teams don't draft RBs and CBs at the top of the draft.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I will agree that if the Spiller pick was made "in a vacuum" you would be right. Otherwise, it was another predictably poor decision that resulted in the team getting a good player. Which is actually something the Bills have done routinely with regard to RB's and DB's. You saw that list of 1st round(and a couple second round) RB's didn't you? Which one of those guys wasn't a good player? Did that justify all of those selections? The organizations record suggests very much otherwise. You can't keep going to that well every few years, even if that pick becomes a 10,000 yard career rusher like Willis McGahee or a sensational young first team All Pro like Marshawn Lynch.

 

This list? "OJ, Joe Cribbs, Greg Bell, Thurman, Antowain Smith, Travis Henry, McGahee, Lynch"

 

There are exactly two players on that list who approach CJ in terms of potential impact and you know which two I'm talking about. Their names are not Cribbs, Bell, Antowain, Travis, Willis, or Marshawn.

 

Apparently when I continue to say "playmaker, home run hitter, and game changer" you don't understand this distinction.

 

As for the incoherence of the Bills approach to team building.....it's not because of instability. The ownership of this team has been the HEIGHT of stability. Unfortunately, Ralph continually made the SAME mistakes over, and over and over for the past half century. He has a "type" that he wants as a coach, and that type is the weak kind that would allow him to meddle with the team. If you think that 50% first round RB's and DB's over a 40+ year period was a coincidence caused by A LACK of stability, then you really don't get how the Buffalo Bills franchise has been run.

 

This year, for the first time Ralph is reportedly no longer part of the day to day operations and coincidentally, for the first time since 1960 the Bills drafted a QB with their first pick in any draft. (Yeah, they traded their actual first pick, but I will take it.) That's imporant because CJ Spiller can run all he wants and this team will not have success without high quality QB play.

 

You can quibble about the exact dysfunction that afflicts the Bills organization. It's besides the point and nothing more than a straw man. We both agree that the Bills history has been marked by incompetence. It doesn't matter whose opinion is more accurate on that account.

 

The point is that the Spiller pick was an outstanding pick, a point you want to disagree with.

[SPILLERmadeUmiss]

The 2010 Draft has been cited frequently as one of the worst in recent memory, and as evidence of Buddy Nix's incompetence as a GM.

 

1st -- Spiller

2nd -- Troup

3rd -- Carrington

4th -- Easley

6th -- Moats

 

Spiller is a budding superstar. Carrington is a starter poised for a breakout year. Moats is a 2nd string ILB and ST contributor. Easley appears to finally be healthy and could be the 5th or 6th WR. Troup is healthy but likely faces the longest odds to make the roster in the DL rotation.

 

It's hard to comment with respect to Troup and Easley because their careers have never really gotten started because of injury. Moats and Carrington were arguably miscast by the previous coaching staff, and Spiller was underutilized.

 

I dare say the possibility exists that by the end of the 2013 season, this draft will be looked back upon quite fondly by fans of the Buffalo Bills.

 

Solid draft.

[dave mcbride]

I don't mean to put words in Badol's mouth,but I guess I will. I think he thinks it's fine to draft RBs and CBs with your first pick if you have the QB, RDE, and LT positions settled. For about ten years, the Bills did with Smith, Kelly, and Wolford. Smith was the best of the lot, but they were all good. The problem with the Bills is that they've been mediocre to bad at all of those positions since 1999 (Flutie's last starting season, Smith's last season, and Fina's last semi-credible season). Schobel did have a couple of pretty good seasons, but he wasn't a fear striker. Get those three positions settled, and then going after RBs and CBs is perfectly OK.

Edited August 21, 2013 by dave mcbride

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I don't mean to put words in Badol's mouth,but I guess I will. I think he thinks it's fine to draft RBs and CBs with your first pick if you have the QB, RDE, and LT positions settled. For about ten years, the Bills did with Smith, Kelly, and Wolford. Smith was the best of the lot, but they were all good. The problem with the Bills is that they've been mediocre to bad at all of those positions since 1999 (Flutie's last starting season, Smith's last season, and Fina's last semi-credible season). Schobel did have a couple of pretty good seasons, but he wasn't a fear striker. Get those three positions settled, and then going after RBs and CBs is perfectly OK.

 

And we were talking about the Spiller pick and as I pointed out, what QBs were we supposed to pick at #9?

 

What wide receiver?

 

You can't say that Spiller was a bad pick because the Bills don't have a quarterback.

[Astrobot]

IMO, Troup will be cut this year.

This is why we don't serve miners.

Be an arborist and cut Branch.

 

[bowery4]

This is why we don't serve miners.

Be an arborist and cut Branch.

Hah! I agree