1B4IDie Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I don't know how wrong I am when I'm discussing basic contract numbers. I have seen non signing bonuses prorated over the remaining life of the deal. But I'm not certain on the official NFL rules that govern the proration of different types of bonuses. But that is an aside, because the way the contract is structured, Bills will have a hard decision either at the end of 2013 season or at the end of the 2014 season to decide what to do with Mario's contract because depending on how they treat the bonus payments the cap hit will rise significantly. The other decision Bills have to make is for cash outlay. Under my scenario where all bonuses are prorated, Bills will have a manageable dollar outlay, and a manageable big cap hit in 2014. But then the cap hit hits big time in 2015. Under the Sportac scenario, Mario's cap hit will rise by 50% in 2014, and the Bills will have to pay him the same $13 million in cash. In that case, they will have to determine if they still want to pay him the $13 million salary and bonus for 2014 and swallow a big cap number. Logic dictates that they will look to restructure his deal that will ease the cap. Don't forget that under the current CBA rules, Bills can designate him as a June 1 cut and spread the dead cap hit over two years, similar to what they did with Fitzpatrick. Again, they would only consider doing that if Mario does not perform to expectations in 2013. Unless these are really new Bills, i don't see them paying $13 million in cash for an underperformer. Your numbers can't possibly be correct. You have cap numbers that are less than his base salary for that year. Where are you getting those numbers from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Mario's Cap Hit by year: 2012: $9.8 2013: $12.4 2014: $18.4 2015: $19.0 2016: $19.9 2017: $16.5 2018: UFA http://www.spotrac.c...mario-williams/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 (edited) In reality, it's more like a 3-yr deal. His cap hit in 2015 will be over $20 million. If Bills want to keep him, they'll have to restructure or cut him. Deal cap hits 2012 - $9.1 2013 - $11.4 2014 - $9.6 2015 - $20.3 2016 - $21.2 2017 - $24.6 Here are Sport Trac's Cap hit numbers: http://www.spotrac.c...mario-williams/ YEAR BASE S. BONUS MISC. CAP HIT DEAD 2012 5,900,000 3,800,000 100,000 9,800,000 - 2013 6,500,000 3,800,000 2,100,000 12,400,000 15,200,000 2014 1,900,000 3,800,000 12,700,000 18,400,000 - 2015 12,100,000 3,800,000 3,100,000 19,000,000 - 2016 11,500,000 3,800,000 4,600,000 19,900,000 - 2017 11,400,000 - 5,100,000 16,500,000 CAP HIT 2012 9,800,000 - 2013 12,400,000 2014 18,400,000 - 2015 19,000,000 - 2016 19,900,000 - 2017 16,500,000 Edited August 6, 2013 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUffalo Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/17/breaking-down-the-mario-williams-deal/ This is where the breakdown of it being a two-year deal comes from. And it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Your numbers can't possibly be correct. You have cap numbers that are less than his base salary for that year. Where are you getting those numbers from? In what year is the cap less than salary? The cap is always higher than the salary. The main difference between my cap numbers and Sportrac's is how the bonuses are prorated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 (edited) I don't know how wrong I am when I'm discussing basic contract numbers. I have seen non signing bonuses prorated over the remaining life of the deal. But I'm not certain on the official NFL rules that govern the proration of different types of bonuses. But that is an aside, because the way the contract is structured, Bills will have a hard decision either at the end of 2013 season or at the end of the 2014 season to decide what to do with Mario's contract because depending on how they treat the bonus payments the cap hit will rise significantly. The other decision Bills have to make is for cash outlay. as i said, im fairly confident only signing bonuses can be prorated. if you have examples otherwise, do share. heres some info on proration: CBA, Article 16, Section 6, Paragraph 5: Proration: The total amount of any signing bonus shall be prorated over the term of the Player Contract (on a straight-line basis, unless subject to acceleration or some other treatment as provided in this Agreement), with a maximum proration of five years, in determining Team Salary and Salary. the only other place you tend to see it is a restructure where you are turning salary into signing bonus to change the cap hits around. Edited August 6, 2013 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 (edited) http://profootballta...-williams-deal/ This is where the breakdown of it being a two-year deal comes from. And it's correct. It does appear that there would be a cap hit in 2014 if Mario were cut after this season. So the "Two year deal" statement doesn't make sense to me. Every NFL deal is a one year deal if you take the signing bonus and cap hit out of the calculation. A team can cut any player at any time. If the argument were all the Guaranteed money were delivered upfront and there was no cap hit after the second year, I can see the "two year" argument but it appears there would be about $20M cap hit for the Bills if Mario were cut after this season. In what year is the cap less than salary? The cap is always higher than the salary. The main difference between my cap numbers and Sportrac's is how the bonuses are prorated. I stand corrected about the base salary, I misread the contract. I just don't understand your 2014 number. I highly doubt the cap hits you have laid out for 2014 and 2017 are correct. Edited August 6, 2013 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I stand corrected about the base salary, I misread the contract. I just don't understand your 2014 number. I highly doubt the cap hits you have laid out for 2014 and 2017 are correct. hes randomly decided out of thin air that every bonus paid gets prorated for the remaining length of the contract which of course destroys the last half of it cap wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 (edited) hes randomly decided out of thin air that every bonus paid gets prorated for the remaining length of the contract which of course destroys the last half of it cap wise. I did not randomly select it. I recall seeing it in an article. But since you insist on calling me out, let's do some remedial math to test whose theory is more correct: Let's assume that the contract details mentioned above are correct. If that is the case, how do you arrive at Sportrac's $12.4 million cap hit in 2013, when Mario received a $8.5 million bonus in the spring, is set to get $6.5 million in base salary, and then has $3.8 million accrual from his signing bonus? Adding those up gives you a total of $18.8 million for the cap hit in 2013. So exactly how does Sportrac get to $12.4 million? Or are they also making up numbers? PS - I admit that I made an error in the calculation by dividing the signing bonus into 6 contract years, when the maximum is 5. So now my numbers are closer to Sportrac's in the first three years because they're a larger bonus hit in those years. Edited August 6, 2013 by GG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I did not randomly select it. I recall seeing it in an article. But since you insist on calling me out, let's do some remedial math to test whose theory is more correct: Let's assume that the contract details mentioned above are correct. If that is the case, how do you arrive at Sportrac's $12.4 million cap hit in 2013, when Mario received a $8.5 million bonus in the spring, is set to get $6.5 million in base salary, and then has $3.8 million accrual from his signing bonus? Adding those up gives you a total of $18.8 million for the cap hit in 2013. So exactly how does Sportrac get to $12.4 million? Or are they also making up numbers? PS - I admit that I made an error in the calculation by dividing the signing bonus into 6 contract years, when the maximum is 5. So now my numbers are closer to Sportrac's in the first three years because they're a larger bonus hit in those years. $6,500,000 Base salary $5,400,000 Pro Rated Bonus $0,500,000 Work out Bonus $12,400,000 Cap Hit http://www.overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Bills&Year=2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 (edited) I did not randomly select it. I recall seeing it in an article. But since you insist on calling me out, let's do some remedial math to test whose theory is more correct: Let's assume that the contract details mentioned above are correct. If that is the case, how do you arrive at Sportrac's $12.4 million cap hit in 2013, when Mario received a $8.5 million bonus in the spring, is set to get $6.5 million in base salary, and then has $3.8 million accrual from his signing bonus? Adding those up gives you a total of $18.8 million for the cap hit in 2013. So exactly how does Sportrac get to $12.4 million? Or are they also making up numbers? PS - I admit that I made an error in the calculation by dividing the signing bonus into 6 contract years, when the maximum is 5. So now my numbers are closer to Sportrac's in the first three years because they're a larger bonus hit in those years. ill say you got me on the option bonus that can be prorated - essentially it is set up as a team option to renew the contract and is treated as if it were a fresh signing bonus - it flew above, over, or around my head but none of the other bonus money can be. if you dont prorate any other bonus (because roster, workout, etc... dont get prorated and its the only option bonus he has) you will get to the sportrac numbers. it also means on bonuses alone he would count 18m in dead money if cut next year. thats without any other guaranteed dollars he may have in there. do you really think we are going to eat upwards of 1/6th of our salary cap in dead money to cut him after year 2? Edited August 6, 2013 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 ill say you got me on the option bonus that can be prorated - essentially it is set up as a team option to renew the contract and is treated as if it were a fresh signing bonus - it flew above, over, or around my head but none of the other bonus money can be. if you dont prorate any other bonus (because roster, workout, etc... dont get prorated and its the only option bonus he has) you will get to the sportrac numbers. it also means on bonuses alone he would count 18m in dead money if cut next year. thats without any other guaranteed dollars he may have in there. do you really think we are going to eat upwards of 1/6th of our salary cap in dead money to cut him after year 2? So now that we've agreed on the basics of the cap hit, we can rationally discuss the real dollars. That's why I said everything will depend on how Mario plays. If he plays at ProBowl level, they'll absolutely pay him the 2014 salary & bonus and maybe even try to pay a bit more to restructure and ease the 2015 cap. But if he doesn't play well, then it's a choice between swallowing a large cap number or paying him $13 million in real cash. I don't think anything after this year is guaranteed. Judging by Bills' history of contract dealing, if Mario does not play well this year, it's likely they'll cut him and use the June 1 designation to spread out the cap hit between 2014 & 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchmurraydowntown Posted August 6, 2013 Author Share Posted August 6, 2013 So now that we've agreed on the basics of the cap hit, we can rationally discuss the real dollars. That's why I said everything will depend on how Mario plays. If he plays at ProBowl level, they'll absolutely pay him the 2014 salary & bonus and maybe even try to pay a bit more to restructure and ease the 2015 cap. But if he doesn't play well, then it's a choice between swallowing a large cap number or paying him $13 million in real cash. I don't think anything after this year is guaranteed. Judging by Bills' history of contract dealing, if Mario does not play well this year, it's likely they'll cut him and use the June 1 designation to spread out the cap hit between 2014 & 2015. If Mario gets hurt & complains then lands on IR, what happens then ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 (edited) So now that we've agreed on the basics of the cap hit, we can rationally discuss the real dollars. That's why I said everything will depend on how Mario plays. If he plays at ProBowl level, they'll absolutely pay him the 2014 salary & bonus and maybe even try to pay a bit more to restructure and ease the 2015 cap. But if he doesn't play well, then it's a choice between swallowing a large cap number or paying him $13 million in real cash. I don't think anything after this year is guaranteed. Judging by Bills' history of contract dealing, if Mario does not play well this year, it's likely they'll cut him and use the June 1 designation to spread out the cap hit between 2014 & 2015. But the Accrual is ~20M right? Thats not chump change cap hit. If you're going to have the guy on the books for $20M in 2014 whether he plays or not he really has to stink in order to cut him. A second 10 sack season does not count as stinking. Edited August 6, 2013 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 But the Accrual is ~20M right? Thats not chump change cap hit. If you're going to have the guy on the books for $20M in 2014 whether he plays or not he really has to stink in order to cut him. A second 10 sack season does not count as stinking. At the end of this year the accrual will be over $18 mil. But if the Bills use the June 1 designation , they can split that $18 between 2014 and 2015. I'm not saying it's likely that Bills will cut Williams in the spring, but the OP talked about the structure of the contract - and the way it is structured, Bills will have a clean way out if they wanted to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 At the end of this year the accrual will be over $18 mil. But if the Bills use the June 1 designation , they can split that $18 between 2014 and 2015. I'm not saying it's likely that Bills will cut Williams in the spring, but the OP talked about the structure of the contract - and the way it is structured, Bills will have a clean way out if they wanted to use it. as several have said, i would hardly call it a 2 year deal though. taking an 18m hit is not exactly a clean way out, even if it can be split up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 At the end of this year the accrual will be over $18 mil. But if the Bills use the June 1 designation , they can split that $18 between 2014 and 2015. I'm not saying it's likely that Bills will cut Williams in the spring, but the OP talked about the structure of the contract - and the way it is structured, Bills will have a clean way out if they wanted to use it. Calling $9M a season clean is a stretch to say the least. Fitzy was half of that, and people act like that amount of money crippled the orgnaization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 But the Accrual is ~20M right? Thats not chump change cap hit. If you're going to have the guy on the books for $20M in 2014 whether he plays or not he really has to stink in order to cut him. A second 10 sack season does not count as stinking. but it could happen couldn't it ? nice job of dialogue guys very well done indeed . will be needing youse guys at tax time and advisement on my portflios and now for something completely different Fellow Bills Fans .. we have gathered here today to consider mario williams let us ..... hope that Mario pulls the tape tight enough on his wrist , then braces the foot and ankle , rubs some mojo juice all over himself, and then pulls his Darned bootstraps up a hitch . And gets after IT. and we kick the living snot out of the Patriots go bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchmurraydowntown Posted August 6, 2013 Author Share Posted August 6, 2013 but it could happen couldn't it ? nice job of dialogue guys very well done indeed . will be needing youse guys at tax time and advisement on my portflios and now for something completely different Fellow Bills Fans .. we have gathered here today to consider mario williams let us ..... hope that Mario pulls the tape tight enough on his wrist , then braces the foot and ankle , rubs some mojo juice all over himself, and then pulls his Darned bootstraps up a hitch . And gets after IT. and we kick the living snot out of the Patriots go bills Go Bills!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Go Bills!! i like your enthusiasm Mitch ! Go Bills indeed : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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