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Posted (edited)

Consumers returned to stores and car dealerships, companies placed more orders for equipment and manufacturing picked up as temperatures warmed, indicating the early-year setback was temporary. Combined with more job gains, such data underscore the view of Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy is improving and in less need of monetary stimulus.

The first-quarter slump is “not really reflective of fundamentals,” said Sam Coffin, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in New York and the best forecaster of GDP in the last two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “For the second quarter, we’ll see some weather rebound and a return to more normal activity after that long winter.”

 

http://www.bloomberg...five-years.html

Edited by gatorman
Posted

 

 

Okay, so you're saying that the worse drop in years is not the worst drop in years because it's predicted to turn up in Q2 even though the predictions for Q1 were horribly wrong.

What's the drop in the first quarter have to do with Obama?
Posted

 

 

Okay, so you're saying that the worse drop in years is not the worst drop in years because it's predicted to turn up in Q2 even though the predictions for Q1 were horribly wrong.

 

remember the good old days when 2.2% growth was considered to be a sign of a slow economy?

Posted

What's the drop in the first quarter have to do with Obama?

 

National GDP contracted in the first two quarters of 2001, and you blamed Bush.

 

Same logic applies to Obama...whatever that logic is.

Posted

What's the drop in the first quarter have to do with Obama?

 

Oh, so NOW you're saying you're in favor of the economic policies put forth by the president without the expressed understanding that eggs must be broken to save the canary? Are you sure you want to take that position AGAIN?

Posted (edited)

Oh, so NOW you're saying you're in favor of the economic policies put forth by the president without the expressed understanding that eggs must be broken to save the canary? Are you sure you want to take that position AGAIN?

 

You're giving him too much credit for abstract thought. He's probably just thinking opining that Obama's responsible for good economic numbers, but bad economic numbers aren't his fault.

Edited by DC Tom
Posted

You're giving him too much credit for abstract thought.

 

He's probably just thinking

 

 

Now who's giving him too much credit....................................... :rolleyes:

Posted

You're giving him too much credit for abstract thought. He's probably just thinking opining that Obama's responsible for good economic numbers, but bad economic numbers aren't his fault.

Actually, I'd liken it more to a primitive reflex arc. Bad news, defend Barry. Good news, praise Barry.

Posted

Speaking of this: LAMP! Did anyone see my pro-style takedown of silly birdog in the Obamacare thread?

 

Or, to save time: How is a 2.9% GDP contraction....something to scoff at, to "roll eyes at", because it's a "headline #"....yet....we are supposed to take the 1.17 of the 2.9, that represents decreased health care spending, as Holy Writ?

 

Are these mutherfrackers even trying anymore? :lol: Yeah, the entire 2.9 is useless data, but, the 1.17 that is part of it? Totally Legit. :wacko:

 

Meanwhile, people that actually know WTF they are talking about, in the form of University of Chicago, have come out and said that the contraction is mostly due to the implicit/indirect taxes that Obamacare has imposed.

 

 

But....don't forget...we are allowed to look at decreased GDP, in terms of not-cost accounting, when it suits us. And goddamn you for suggesting that the various pieces of cost should provide an accurate view in the aggregate. You know, cause it don't matter how proper finance/econ/accounting treatment, from the bottom up, methodology actually works.

 

Because, you know, we are "rolling our eyes" at that aggregate.

 

I am utterly wasted. And, I've made more sense in this single post that you'll hear from Democrats, in the aggregate(3 times! Can you tell I have a new client who has a favorite word?) today on this issue.

Posted

MEGAN MCARDLE: Big Losers In The GDP Report: Democrats.

 

The last estimate had GDP shrinking slightly from the prior quarter. The current estimate has it shrinking a lot: 2.9 percent on an annualized basis. If this keeps up for another quarter, the economy will officially be in recession.

 

How did this happen? The White House line is that this was driven mostly by health care and net exports. But treat those figures carefully — which is what I’ve seen a lot of people on Twitter not doing.

 

Health-care spending is a major factor in the downward revision of Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates, because the BEA was overestimating it in prior reports. But it is not what is mainly driving the actual decline in GDP. That looks a lot more broad-based. . . .

 

The most worrisome potential explanation is that health expenditures fell because, well, health expenditures fall when the economy is contracting. I’m not exactly ready to call recession yet — consumption was still basically healthy, and the weather was awfully bad. But I’ll be crossing my fingers until the next report comes out.

 

And so, presumably, will Democrats: partly because they are patriotic Americans who want to see their country do well, but also because recessions are bad for incumbents and, one imagines, particularly bad for the party that claimed the other guys had driven the economy into the ditch and that they were just the folks to drive it out. If the economy heads back into a recession this year, things start looking pretty grim for the Democrats — not just for this year, but for 2016.

 

 

 

When you raise taxes dramatically and roll out tons of burdensome regulations, a contracting economy is only a surprise if you’re an idiot.

 

Or a member of this Administration and the press.

 

But I repeat myself.

 

.

Posted

WASHINGTON (AP) — A private survey shows U.S. business hiring surged in June, a sign of stronger economic growth.

Payroll processer ADP said Wednesday that private employers added 281,000 jobs last month, up from 179,000 in the previous month.

The figure suggests the government's jobs report, to be released Thursday, could also show a significant gain from May's tally of 217,000 jobs. But the ADP numbers cover only private businesses and often diverge from the government's more comprehensive report.

Recent economic data suggests that the economy has shifted into a higher gear. Autos sold at an annual rate of 16.9 million in June, the highest rate since January 2006. New orders for manufacturers are at a six-month peak, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

 

http://www.seattlepi.com/business/article/Survey-US-companies-added-281-000-jobs-in-June-5595075.php

 

Great News! :beer:

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