bladiebla Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 Well, whatever you want to say about his stats, they do not support making him the highest paid safety in the NFL. This.
Orton's Arm Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 Not that I want to get into this, but the top 10 QBs from last year threw a combined 114 INTs. http://espn.go.com/n...arterbackRating There are plenty to go around. And when you face Brady 8 times, I think he's had his fair shots. And can I just take a step back. I'm not putting Byrd on trial or making ANY conclusions. I just found this interesting. An excellent point. Obviously, someone is getting those 114 INTs. I personally consider Matt Schaub an elite QB; but other than him Byrd hasn't intercepted anyone I'd consider good. There have been times--especially in 2009--when Byrd was the beneficiary of an exceptional number of bad QBs/bad throws. He's feasted off the likes of Sanchez and other scrub QBs. If you look just at the raw number of INTs he's had, that probably overstates what you can expect going forward--especially when playing against a decent QB. There's a lot more to Byrd's game than just the interceptions. That "more" is a big reason I'm hoping he's re-signed. But his INT total is, as you say, inflated.
section122 Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 So somebody does work (a lot of it) and shows that Byrd excels against lower tier qbs. Then most of the responses are snarky and add nothing to the conversation. What happened to this board? Yes there is a 60 page Byrd thread - any original idea or thought gets lost in the white noise. Meanwhile a last post wins thread can go on for 700+ pages and add nothing to the board, get closed and have a new one started right away. I get it, it is July not much is going on - so why can't we have a discussion about an interesting tidbit without people adding nothing but negativity to the OP. Add in the fact that by posting your "oh no not again" groaning and whining you keep the thread near the top where others are bound to open it and read it. Perhaps they might even *gasp* add something to the conversation. /rant That said.... I found this very interesting so thank you op. I agree with JR in Pittsburgh I wonder if this is an anomoly or par for the course. Is Byrd just the A-Rod of the NFL getting picks and padding his stats when they are "meaningless." One thing is for sure - he hasn't impacted the bottom line being a player that will carry the team and raise the level of play a la an Ed Reed or Polamolu of the defense as a whole (see the Bills rankings the last 4 years). I WILL concede that the D-coordinator's have been subpar during his tenure but I still found the numbers to be interesting. I wish he would at least sign the tender but I wish more Eugene Parker would get his agent's license revoked so I don't have to hear about him anymore!
thebandit27 Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 An excellent point. Obviously, someone is getting those 114 INTs. I personally consider Matt Schaub an elite QB; but other than him Byrd hasn't intercepted anyone I'd consider good. There have been times--especially in 2009--when Byrd was the beneficiary of an exceptional number of bad QBs/bad throws. He's feasted off the likes of Sanchez and other scrub QBs. If you look just at the raw number of INTs he's had, that probably overstates what you can expect going forward--especially when playing against a decent QB. There's a lot more to Byrd's game than just the interceptions. That "more" is a big reason I'm hoping he's re-signed. But his INT total is, as you say, inflated. Yikes
K-9 Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 Yikes I predict Shaub's career YPA stat to be forthcoming shortly. GO BILLS!!!
quinnearlysghost88 Posted July 16, 2013 Author Posted July 16, 2013 That's like saying "Peyton Manning's superbowl win stats are padded because he beat Rex Grossman." Guess what elite players are supposed to do... Play well against inferior opponents. Jairus does that. Maybe next time he can just swat those balls down instead so you can get a "more realistic" number... No it wouldn't. Unless Grossman jumped on D. It would be Manning padding his stats if he was playing against a weak defense. Which he wasn't.
Chimp Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 OP: these are interesting observations. But I would like to know whether guys like Goldson and Weddle shake out similarly. I bet they do, because my sense is that the reason that guys typically get picks is because the QB throwing the ball sucks. I mean, Polamalu and Ed Reed are obviously great (and in a whole other class), but I have a feeling that picking off guys like Kelly Holcolm, Brandon Weedon, and Jeff Kitna over the years have padded their stats too. JR - I agree on all counts. I will say that the 09 season has always felt like an anomaly to me. I say that because there were a few balls that Byrd picked that we so far over thrown I believe he was in terrible position and simple got hit by the ball. I want the Bills to sign him, not for top paid safety money, but for a top 10 guy as I believe he is. I would like to see a repeat of the 09 season again just to see if it is real before paying top safety money. I guess it doesn't matter anyway as it really looks like he doesn't want to stay in Buffalo...can't blame him anyway.
Gugny Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 I've been known to post a stupid thing, or two ... or maybe more like 1,971 ... so I try not to be critical. But this thread, here ... it ain't no good.
uncle flap Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 Right, well I guess it's hard to refute an eye-ball test. But you say, "Top-tier QBs avoid throwing toward top-tier defenders," so is there a whole subset of middle- to lower-tier defenders that are scooping up these 114 INTs? And, if so, are INTs an arbitrary stat to use in measuring an effective secondary player? No, I wrote it could be the case that top-tier QBs avoid throwing toward top-tier defenders. All else equal, does Tom Brady throw it where Byrd can make a play on it, or where Justin Rogers left his man open? Or put another way: a good QB is more likely to throw to an open receiver. A good defender is likely to have his man covered. So good QBs don't make a habit of throwing at good defenders. Is that some absolute law with no exceptions? Of course not, but I'd venture to say it accounts for some of the trends you've noticed. In one sense, INTs are essentially a fluke. They happen on about 3% of passing plays (or about 1% of all plays). Getting an INT is certainly "good," although some are undoubtedly "lucky." You threw out the 114 INT stat. Well there were 292 other INTs. There are also far more defenders and receivers than there are QBs. I don't know, or care, who is throwing and making those interceptions as a trend, because each interception is unique. Some are caused by bad throws, some of those bad throws are caused by pressure from the pass rushers. Some are tipped balls. Some are incredible plays by defenders. Some are caused by bad route running. The list goes on. Some are a combination of factors. I was just making the point that either a.) you are cherry picking stats to support a predetermined point of view, or b.) you are erroneously using a small sample size of an already rare occurrence to extrapolate some greater meaning. I'll grant that Byrd may have an "padded" INT total by your definition, but I just don't think that it means anything without any context. Until you or someone else wants to take the time to break down each and every interception, and then compare those made by other defenders, I don't see any point in breaking down one player's interceptions in a vacuum. All that said, I wouldn't go so far as to say INTs are completely arbitrary. Having a high INT total, "padded" or otherwise, tells me that a player is opportunistic. And that is a certainly good thing. Even if a ball were to fall into a player's lap, he still has to make the catch. I also don't think it is a coincidence that the players with high INT totals are also considered to be very good players, be those totals "padded" or not.
Orton's Arm Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 (edited) Yikes K-9 is right: I'm about to cite Schaub's YPA stat. But before I do, I'll give you a little background. A regression analysis performed by The New York Times found that six variables explained 80% of the observed variation in teams' winning percentages. These six variables were yards per pass attempt, interception percentage, yards per running attempt; and the defensive equivalents thereof. Of the three offensive variables, yards per pass attempt is three times as important as INT percentage or yards per rushing attempt. So let's look at a few numbers, shall we? Just to make K-9 happy. Yards per pass attempt (career) Tom Brady: 7.5 Peyton Manning: 7.6 Matt Schaub: 7.8 INT percentage (career) Tom Brady: 2.1% Peyton Manning: 2.7% Matt Schaub: 2.5% If a no name defensive end starts getting 17 sacks a season, wouldn't it be time for us to start describing him as elite? By the same token, if a guy like Schaub puts up numbers at least as good as the best QBs in the game, doesn't he deserve to be put in that same elite category? Edited July 16, 2013 by Edwards' Arm
Charles Romes Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 Does he seem better than he really is just because he is our only defender to step up and make a play to win ANY game over the last few years?
section122 Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 K-9 is right: I'm about to cite Schaub's YPA stat. But before I do, I'll give you a little background. A regression analysis performed by The New York Times found that six variables explained 80% of the observed variation in teams' winning percentages. These six variables were yards per pass attempt, interception percentage, yards per running attempt; and the defensive equivalents thereof. Of the three offensive variables, yards per pass attempt is three times as important as INT percentage or yards per rushing attempt. So let's look at a few numbers, shall we? Just to make K-9 happy. Yards per pass attempt (career) Tom Brady: 7.5 Peyton Manning: 7.6 Matt Schaub: 7.8 INT percentage (career) Tom Brady: 2.1% Peyton Manning: 2.7% Matt Schaub: 2.5% If a no name defensive end starts getting 17 sacks a season, wouldn't it be time for us to start describing him as elite? By the same token, if a guy like Schaub puts up numbers at least as good as the best QBs in the game, doesn't he deserve to be put in that same elite category? I understand this and don't disagree entirely with the premise or numbers however the texans elite running game and the fact that defenses have to stack the box against Arian foster helps to pad schaubs stats including his ypa. You cite Brady and manning so I will ask have either of them ever played with a rb as good as foster? I would also stack Andre Johnson as good or better than any wr to play with both of those qbs. Ypa is a stay and just like every other stay there are many variables that contribute to the final number. I don't place Schaub as elite but I don't think he's a bum either. He's a good starter on a very good team IMO.
chris heff Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 I don't know, exactly. But whatever it was, he proved the ever-lovin' **** out of it. Ok this made me laugh.
Heitz Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 I'm not going to say his INTs are padded, because he picked-off the balls he did IMO - whether the QB was good or bad. Were some "easier" to pick than some others? Probably, but what do I know I don't play professional football... I did find this stat from the Trapasso article I posted in the other Byrd thread interesting: "Byrd played 1,047 snaps in 2012. Of those snaps, he was "thrown at" 21 times, according to ProFootballFocus. On those 21 "targets," he actually allowed 16 receptions, which equated to a catch percentage of 76.2, the sixth-highest catch percentage of all safeties who played at least 25 percent of their respective team's snaps. Byrd's QB rating allowed of 56.9 was one of the lowest in the league among safeties-thanks to those interceptions-yet his catch percentage was far from elite." http://sports.yahoo.com/news/enduring-buffalo-bills-jairus-byrd-franchise-tag-saga-140300480.html So while he picked off a lot of balls, looks like he also allowed quite a few receptions. Perhaps that's the point you can use for argument that he doesn't deserve the huge deal (which is what I'm interpreting as the point of the original post), though again, that's just one measure...
Malazan Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 I'm gonna need a padded cell before this Byrd crap is over. They're quite cozy. It would be nice to eat with a fork again though.
vincec Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 Aren't the sour grapes starting a little bit early for Byrd? At least with Levitre we waited until he was gone before we decided that he actually stunk and the Bills are better off without him. What happens if Byrd signs at some point and stays with Buffalo?
l< j Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 I think you should factor in his forced fumbles for whatever argument you are trying to make. 2009: 0 2010: 3 2011: 3 2012: 4
chris heff Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 (edited) This has nothing to do with anything, but I live in South FL and I just saw a guy in the Super Market wearing a Thurman Thomas Dolphins jersey. I had to do a double take. I guess I should have asked him if thought Byrd's numbers were padded. Edited July 16, 2013 by chris heff
atlbillsfan1975 Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 Does anyone think Brady and Belichick game plan for Byrd like they did for Reed?
RK_BillsFan Posted July 16, 2013 Posted July 16, 2013 I think we are missing a rather important stat. How many times was the ball thrown to where he was covering? I would probably guess a lot more his rookie season than any of the other seasons. That said, Byrd is a very good safety. as a matter of fact, PFF ranks him as the best cover safety in football: 25. Jairus Byrd, S, Buffalo Bills (previously 72nd) Is there a better deep safety in the league than Byrd right now? A legitimate playmaker that quarterbacks have to be mindful of on every down, Byrd comfortably finished the year our top ranked cover safety. Now, the way he’s used may not make him the most complete safety out there, but he’s so good at what he does you can’t help but appreciate the Bills’ franchise player. Best Performance: Week 11 vs Miami, +5.3 Key Stat: Intercepted five passes and wasn’t beaten for a touchdown all year Now. Should we make him the highest paid safety in the league? I would say no. new system, new teammates, and like you said his stat's are slightly padded INT wise. However, he is s sure tackler, and causes a fair amount of fumbles when he gets his hands on the ball. Is he going to put up Ed Reed INT numbers? Probably not. But who knows. It's not like the bills front line has exactly been breathing down the necks of opposing QBs these past few seasons. TBH if the bills offered 5 yr / 45 million, front loaded the contract and made it say, 28 million guaranteed, i'd be ok with it. Take the teams salary close to cap next year to make this happen and be done with it. If we get to drop Mark Anderson due to not really doing what we brought him in for, it would help alleviate some cap space that the Fitz contract will eat up. He will be paid like a top Safety and have i believe the most guaranteed money of the most recent contracts. It's really this simple.
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