Byrds INT count is padded...

[RuntheDamnBall]

I can careless if he stays or goes to be honest. If he stays, great. If not...so be it...

 

I don't think he makes or breaks this team!

This statement is like the slightly less annoying little cousin of "we didn't win anything with _________, we can lose just as easily without him!". No one player does make or break a 53 man team. Not even Tom Brady. Now lose a guy like that for good, without a good plan to replace him, and your team is surely worse. It can rarely hurt your team to have more good players. Byrd is the best the Bills have, and really the only established NFL safety. The Bills can prove their point and have the moral upper hand and win the strange battle where fans are siding with the billionaire, and yet end up with a worse team.

 

Aaron Williams was everyone's favorite whipping boy last year, but in 2013-14 he is going to be a quality starting safety, according to many here. Duke Williams has never played a down of NFL ball, but he is positioned to start at present. Marcus Easley should be reason enough for no one to trust a 4th rounder to come in and start, let alone to stay healthy or to simply contribute. He is just as easily the next Justin Rogers or Da'Norris Searcy - a replacement level NFL player. That is what most 4th rounders end up being.

 

Be careful what you all wish for, is what I am saying, I guess.

[fansince88]

Quinn, you are not getting any love but thanks for the stats. While I think he is very good I personally would not call him a ball hawk like many suggest.

I said it multiple times in his 09 year that most if his int's were right place right time int's. That said I think 2012 the whole team gave up on the coaching

staff and the line in the last two years didnt put the pressure they did three years ago. I say do what you can next year to replace him in the draft or pay

him the rediculus money he will make. But please dont step back. Should have tagged Levitre instead.

[Mr. WEO]

> But EA seemed to making the argument that Schaub should be considered elite because he

> had a similar individual stat to Manning and Brady which is reportedly the most important

> correlative to winning percent.

 

There are a number of QB stats one could look at. Completion percentage. QB rating. Yards per attempt. Touchdowns. Etc. There will always be an argument about which of those stats to ignore, which to pay attention to, and how much to weight them. I tend to stress YPA and INT percentage: both because those are the ones correlated with winning, and because they are among the most difficult to distort. (Conversely, a QB who wants to inflate his completion percentage or QB rating should dump the ball off a lot. Which is precisely what Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and others have done to inflate their completion percentages and QB ratings.)

 

> Yet it doesn't seem to correlate in Schaub's case.

 

The fact that Schaub's YPA and INT percentage are comparable to Manning's and Brady's strongly suggests his individual contribution to winning games is comparable to Manning's or Brady's. But the Texans have typically not had a complete football team--certainly not nearly as complete as the Patriots or Colts teams which had gone deep into the playoffs.

 

> Picking one number doesn't make him elite when most of the other numbers don't support the claim.

 

I'm not sure which other numbers you have in mind, but many numbers one might cite are meaningless. For example, John Elway and Kelly Holcomb have about the same career completion percentage and QB rating. This is because Holcomb inflated his completion percentage with a lot of short passes; whereas Elway did the opposite. However, Elway has a commanding advantage over Holcomb in yards per attempt--correctly indicating that Elway was by far the better quarterback.

 

TDs, for one. This guy has never thrown for over 30. Cam Newton has a better YPA than Brady and Schaub. Josh Freeman is essentially the same as Schaub and E. MAnning.

[RuntheDamnBall]

TDs, for one. This guy has never thrown for over 30. Cam Newton has a better YPA than Brady and Schaub. Josh Freeman is essentially the same as Schaub and E. MAnning.

Are we talking about the YPA stat? I am kind of intrigued by Freeman, but Manning is definitely a level above those two - perhaps a couple of levels. I'm not much of a believer in clutch-performance as a statistically verifiable phenomenon, but Manning has definitely proven he is a better QB than those two. And I'd argue that Manning's teams were not as good as some of those Schaub has played for.

 

Anyway, Jairus Byrd, right?

[thebandit27]

> But EA seemed to making the argument that Schaub should be considered elite because he

> had a similar individual stat to Manning and Brady which is reportedly the most important

> correlative to winning percent.

 

There are a number of QB stats one could look at. Completion percentage. QB rating. Yards per attempt. Touchdowns. Etc. There will always be an argument about which of those stats to ignore, which to pay attention to, and how much to weight them. I tend to stress YPA and INT percentage: both because those are the ones correlated with winning, and because they are among the most difficult to distort. (Conversely, a QB who wants to inflate his completion percentage or QB rating should dump the ball off a lot. Which is precisely what Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and others have done to inflate their completion percentages and QB ratings.)

 

> Yet it doesn't seem to correlate in Schaub's case.

 

The fact that Schaub's YPA and INT percentage are comparable to Manning's and Brady's strongly suggests his individual contribution to winning games is comparable to Manning's or Brady's. But the Texans have typically not had a complete football team--certainly not nearly as complete as the Patriots or Colts teams which had gone deep into the playoffs.

 

> Picking one number doesn't make him elite when most of the other numbers don't support the claim.

 

I'm not sure which other numbers you have in mind, but many numbers one might cite are meaningless. For example, John Elway and Kelly Holcomb have about the same career completion percentage and QB rating. This is because Holcomb inflated his completion percentage with a lot of short passes; whereas Elway did the opposite. However, Elway has a commanding advantage over Holcomb in yards per attempt--correctly indicating that Elway was by far the better quarterback.

 

Advanced stats, just like plain stats, can be used to prove anything. For example, Football Outsiders bases their rankings on DYAR and DVOA, along with ESPN's QBR...all of which put Schaub at middle-of-the-pack for 2012:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

 

Stats aside though, my objective opinion after watching the guy play quite a bit (he's on my fantasy team in a dynasty league, so I've had him for 6 years now, which means I pretty much watch him any chance I get LOL), is that he's above-average. Certainly not elite in my mind.

 

But I don't want to draw away from the topic at hand, which is Byrd's INT stats. His rookie year, in my opinion, was an aberration, as he benefited from an unbelievable number of overthrows and tipped balls. Paradoxically, I feel that last year, when he generated fewer INTs, was his best season as a pro. He was much improved in run support and in keeping his discipline in pass coverage. A top 10 FS in this league in my opinion, but not worth $9M/year...that's crazy talk in my mind.

[chris heff]

 

 

Advanced stats, just like plain stats, can be used to prove anything. For example, Football Outsiders bases their rankings on DYAR and DVOA, along with ESPN's QBR...all of which put Schaub at middle-of-the-pack for 2012:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

 

Stats aside though, my objective opinion after watching the guy play quite a bit (he's on my fantasy team in a dynasty league, so I've had him for 6 years now, which means I pretty much watch him any chance I get LOL), is that he's above-average. Certainly not elite in my mind.

 

But I don't want to draw away from the topic at hand, which is Byrd's INT stats. His rookie year, in my opinion, was an aberration, as he benefited from an unbelievable number of overthrows and tipped balls. Paradoxically, I feel that last year, when he generated fewer INTs, was his best season as a pro. He was much improved in run support and in keeping his discipline in pass coverage. A top 10 FS in this league in my opinion, but not worth $9M/year...that's crazy talk in my mind.

 

78% of all statistics are made up.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

78% of all statistics are made up.

 

That depends on your source.

 

I've seen studies suggesting that as many as 93% of stats are made up and other studies stating that as few as 62% of stats are made up

[Chandler#81]

 

 

That depends on your source.

 

I've seen studies suggesting that as many as 93% of stats are made up and other studies stating that as few as 62% of stats are made up

 

You're making this up!

[dollars 2 donuts]

I don't think the stats are padded, and I do want Byrd on this team. However, long before this post you could have put in me in the, "9 interceptions in 3 years how much money do you want?!" group.

[Webster Guy]

Not that I want to get into this, but the top 10 QBs from last year threw a combined 114 INTs. http://espn.go.com/n...arterbackRating

 

There are plenty to go around. And when you face Brady 8 times, I think he's had his fair shots.

 

And can I just take a step back. I'm not putting Byrd on trial or making ANY conclusions. I just found this interesting.

Nice job OP thats an interesting post. It supports my opinion on Byrd which is that he's mediocre. INT's are like sacks, half the story at best. You need to look at the details of the stats like you laid them out (apparently the facts are very disturbing to a lot of posters here). What was the game situation, the circumstances surrounding the big plays, and did the player do something special in clutch time or did they just cherry pick a garbage time hail mary that really should have been knocked down instead of caught?

 

And we all know how pro bowl votes go, just ask Ruben Brown. He admitted it was an honor but still an NFL popularity contest and not indicative of how he played that season.

 

I'm glad we tagged him and refused the long term deal. The dude is going to make over $300k per game this season, I think he'll be OK.

[Orton's Arm]

Advanced stats, just like plain stats, can be used to prove anything. For example, Football Outsiders bases their rankings on DYAR and DVOA, along with ESPN's QBR...all of which put Schaub at middle-of-the-pack for 2012:

 

http://www.footballo...rs.com/stats/qb

 

Stats aside though, my objective opinion after watching the guy play quite a bit (he's on my fantasy team in a dynasty league, so I've had him for 6 years now, which means I pretty much watch him any chance I get LOL), is that he's above-average. Certainly not elite in my mind.

 

But I don't want to draw away from the topic at hand, which is Byrd's INT stats. His rookie year, in my opinion, was an aberration, as he benefited from an unbelievable number of overthrows and tipped balls. Paradoxically, I feel that last year, when he generated fewer INTs, was his best season as a pro. He was much improved in run support and in keeping his discipline in pass coverage. A top 10 FS in this league in my opinion, but not worth $9M/year...that's crazy talk in my mind.

 

Thanks for the link. I just finished reading Football Outsiders' description of their various statistical ranking systems. At first glance, I don't see any glaringly obvious flaws in what they've done. (Conversely, QB rating has a glaringly obvious flaw: a completed pass for 0 yards is considered much better than an incompletion.)

 

That said, their two statistical measures yield different results. In 2010, Matt Schaub had the 8th best DYAR, and the 13th best VOA. In 2011, his DYAR worsened from 8th best to 10th best; whereas his VOA improved from 13th best to 5th best. It's not clear whether they think he did better or worse in 2011 than he had in 2010.

 

In a nutshell, you are correct to point out that Schaub's numbers with respect to the above matrices are not as impressive as his YPA. That's worth bearing in mind when evaluating his performance as a QB.

[T master]

I think Byrd is a good players but doesn't deserve top 5 money . Some of this stalemate may have come from the Fitz debacle of which the FO should have learned from .

 

I would love for Byrd to stay with the team but as Sapp said "if the team that has watched you practice & play do not believe you are top 5 then sign your tender & come back & prove that you are worth the money"

 

I'll go with that & if he holds out past the start of camp make him a one year offer & the minute he signs it trade him for 2 #1 picks & use those to get the first over all next year & grab Clowney ...

 

End of story !! GO BILLS !!!

[Peace Frog]

I'm on board with all of this. My definition of a big INT is Byrd picking one off in the endzone from Brady that was intended for Gronkowski that would've put the Pats ahead in the 4th quarter. I think Byrd is good but not great, based on what he's done so far. Maybe he will shine in Pettine's system.