Why I am not optimistic about this team

[thewildrabbit]

To be fair, you brush over the fact that Kolb is perhaps the laughingstock starting QB of the entire NFL. This is basically the equivalent of the Jaguars picking up Trent Edwards after the Bills cut him. One man's trash can be another man's treasure......but sometimes they are still trash. I think this is the case with Kolb. I think he is junk. If we hadn't been told otherwise by the Buffalo Bills I would think he was the empty tomato can that they brought in to make EJ's first kick an easy one.

 

As for bringing EJ along slowly, I gotta' agree with the succinct take by MikeSpeed in reply #100. I don't need a yes or no answer from EJ in year 1....but I need a yes or maybe. If it's a maybe I am trying to draft another franchise QB right away.

 

As for the "mindset or past regimes" being one of throwing a young QB into action immediately......I think we as Bills fans sometimes get out of touch with the league because the Bills have barely been competitve in the past 13 years. The reality is that it is MUCH easier for a young QB to succeed in the NFL now today than it was even when JP Losman and Trent Edwards came into the league. In fact, it may be a little easier for some to succeed in the NFL now than it is to shine while playing on their college team. Case it point, Ryan Tannehill. If ever there was a prospect that looked unprepared it was that guy. There were times when he was just AWFUL at Texas A&M, but he came into the NFL and he showed a great deal of promise for a rookie. The guy had some monster performances by old rookie standards.....including a beat down on our Bills in Miami. If that guy can do it, EJ Manuel should be able too. Manuel looked much better in college than the couple years that Tannehill played at A&M. I am not worrying about EJ getting beat up, the league just doesn't allow it. College football is much more dangerous for a QB.

The Dolphins hired Texas A&M HC Mike Sherman to be their offensive coordinator last year so Tannehill was coached by his college head coach to make his transition into the NFL easier. So i don't think the comparison to Tannehill is very relevant at all, particularly considering Tennehill is more of a pure pocket passer. EJ would probably be used more in the read option which is in vogue with QB's like Russell, RG3, Newton, and kaepernick. Mostly because I think EJ is no where near ready to be a starting NFL pocket passing QB, not with the flaws I previously mentioned. Or are those flaws supposed to magically disappear simply because Bills fans want them to?

 

The quickest way to ruin a rookie QB is to throw him into the fire on a bad team. At this point nobody knows what type of team the 2013 Buffalo Bills will be, and all we as Bills fans can do is hope Marrone knows what he is doing. It is clear that Williams, Mularkey, Jauron didn't know, and the supposed QB guru Chan Gailey knew less then Jauron.

[BADOLBILZ]

The Dolphins hired Texas A&M HC Mike Sherman to be their offensive coordinator last year so Tannehill was coached by his college head coach to make his transition into the NFL easier. So i don't think the comparison to Tannehill is very relevant at all, particularly considering Tennehill is more of a pure pocket passer. EJ would probably be used more in the read option which is in vogue with QB's like Russell, RG3, Newton, and kaepernick. Mostly because I think EJ is no where near ready to be a starting NFL pocket passing QB, not with the flaws I previously mentioned. Or are those flaws supposed to magically disappear simply because Bills fans want them to?

 

The quickest way to ruin a rookie QB is to throw him into the fire on a bad team. At this point nobody knows what type of team the 2013 Buffalo Bills will be, and all we as Bills fans can do is hope Marrone knows what he is doing. It is clear that Williams, Mularkey, Jauron didn't know, and the supposed QB guru Chan Gailey knew less then Jauron.

 

Not sure why you think Tannehill was a pocket passer and Manuel is not. Manuel was much more accurate, had a considerably higher ypa, higher passer rating and quite a bit more experience. Tannehill only played QB for a year and a half at A&M and he was a mess his last season. A&M blew second half leads almost every game. He looked the opposite of clutch. He caught 100 passes as a receiver the previous two years.

 

As for ruining a rookie QB.....like I said, Bills fans are sometimes out of touch and I think your take is an example. It's not a mistake that Cam Newton came into the NFL and threw for 400 plus yards in his first game when people were expecting him to struggle. The game has changed. It's more QB friendly than college ball now. Russell Wilson was far more dynamic as a rookie with Seattle than he was the year before at Wisconsin. Tannehill was better. Luck was even better. Kaepernick wasn't carefully groomed into a dynamic QB.....he was running wildcat and zone read stuff for the first year and a half and they threw him into the fire in only his second year after basically being a running QB in college. Manuel is more NFL prepared than Kaepernick. Not saying he is better, but Manuel played a lot more as a pocket passer and against stronger competition.

[Bill from NYC]

Not sure why you think Tannehill was a pocket passer and Manuel is not. Manuel was much more accurate, had a considerably higher ypa, higher passer rating and quite a bit more experience. Tannehill only played QB for a year and a half at A&M and he was a mess his last season. A&M blew second half leads almost every game. He looked the opposite of clutch. He caught 100 passes as a receiver the previous two years.

 

As for ruining a rookie QB.....like I said, Bills fans are sometimes out of touch and I think your take is an example. It's not a mistake that Cam Newton came into the NFL and threw for 400 plus yards in his first game when people were expecting him to struggle. The game has changed. It's more QB friendly than college ball now. Russell Wilson was far more dynamic as a rookie with Seattle than he was the year before at Wisconsin. Tannehill was better. Luck was even better. Kaepernick wasn't carefully groomed into a dynamic QB.....he was running wildcat and zone read stuff for the first year and a half and they threw him into the fire in only his second year after basically being a running QB in college. Manuel is more NFL prepared than Kaepernick. Not saying he is better, but Manuel played a lot more as a pocket passer and against stronger competition.

 

To be honest, at times I think of Manuel a a running quarterback. I think he is a fine, instinctive runner. When a QB has this much ability in one area they tend to go for it as a reflex, or so it would seem. For instance, Bledsoe had a circus arm. He knew that if given time, he could drop a 60 yard pass straight down into the hands of a reveiver. This would cause him to at times wait too long to throw. And on those Bills teams there was little to no time due to some of the worst offensive lines ever assembled in the NFL.

 

I am really looking forward to watching this kid. He does seem raw, but he also seems to be a smart player. I think that this can set him apart from Losman. JP had talent galore, but imo he never had a feel for the game.

 

And Badol, not to beat a dead horse, but why would the Bills give up their most solid pass protector (Levitre) under these conditions? Does this indicate that they expect Manuel to run alot, or am I reading too much into it?

Edited July 20, 2013 by Bill from NYC

[Thunderstealer]

That's why I wised up. I have bet on the Bills to win the AFC Championship.

No really, I did. Placed the bet at Caesar's.

 

Bills vs. Seahawks .....lol

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Whats the difference between Kolb & Fitz? Between Barnett and Hughes? Not much. Then you lose Levitre and screw up Byrd?

 

When your whole basis for a turnaround are rookies and free agents your team is in deep trouble.

 

??? The basis for change is the Brandon for Wilson, Whaley for nix, Marrone for Chan, Hackett for chan, and Pettine for wanny.

 

Could be better could be worse, but only the Colts last year can boast more housecleaning than we have seen here.

 

I don't believe anyone in the new org will tolerate 4-12.

 

 

[eball]

And Badol, not to beat a dead horse, but why would the Bills give up their most solid pass protector (Levitre) under these conditions? Does this indicate that they expect Manuel to run alot, or am I reading too much into it?

 

Because a well run team does not spend $9M per year on a LG. It's as simple as that.

[JohnC]

 

And Badol, not to beat a dead horse, but why would the Bills give up their most solid pass protector (Levitre) under these conditions? Does this indicate that they expect Manuel to run alot, or am I reading too much into it?

 

Bill, there is nothing mysterious about the Levitre release to the open market. It was simply a cost/benefit decision. Is Levitre better than his replacement, whoever it may be? Probably so. But that is only half of the calculation made to keep him. This staff felt that the downgrade in play at the guard position was less significant than the higher cost of his contract at the expense of the team's cap flexibility.I would have liked to have kept him but the decision the organization made is more than reasonable. The organization is now going through the same issue with Byrd. Similar to your position with Levitre I am taking with Byrd. I want him kept under a standard contract, not a tendered contract. My positon on Byrd is that he is more of a playmaker at free safety than a guard can every be. Or another way of looking at it is that he is a more valuable a player the way he plays his positon than Levitre is playing his position.

 

Bill, Levitre is not a dead horse. He is a horse now ensconced in another barn. The system in his case worked out wonderfully for him. That doesn't always happen in this business. I'm happy for him. He deserved everything he could get. And he got it: $$$$$$$

[Coach Tuesday]

Because a well run team does not spend $9M per year on a LG. It's as simple as that.

 

In 2011 - two years ago - the Patriots re-upped Mankins for 6 years @ $51 million. I'd argue the 2013 version of that contract is $9M/season (although those numbers are skewed, as you know - the player never gets that much), and I'd also argue that the Patriots are a well-run organization.

 

Next you're going to tell me that Levitre is no Mankins. While that might be true, (i) you made a general statement, which I've rebutted; and (ii) Levitre was the best guard on the market this year, just like Mankins was in 2011. The team doesn't set the market. The market sets the market.

Edited July 20, 2013 by Coach Tuesday

[eball]

I guess I should have said, "a well run team doesn't spend 9M per year on an incomplete LG."

[Bill from NYC]

eball, let's make no mistake. The Bills are not a well run team. Next, they have what, 18 million dollars in cap space? They could have guaranteed Levitre's first year and part of his second year and not taken any risk in terms of cap problems. This is what Tampa did with Revis. After his first season, Revis can be cut with no cap hit.

 

JohnC >>>Is Levitre better than his replacement, whoever it may be? Probably so.<<<

Probably so? He was our best pass blocker. A left guard with LT agility. They didn't draft his replacement. No, they ae going with a bargain basement journeyman. We have seen the Bills do this to their OL time and again. How often did it work? This is bound to hinder both Manuel and yes, Spiller. Let's hope the defense improved.

 

Btw I had to answer in this format because my enter key still doesnt work while responding to posts. It's getting quite annoying and apparently others have this same problem.

[biglukes]

I guess I should have said, "a well run team doesn't spend 9M per year on an incomplete LG."

Plus the Patriots don't really spend money on anyone who isn't Brady or one of a very select group of guys like Gronk and Willfork. They identified Mankins as one of those select core guys to give a big contract to.

 

Just because New England gave crazy money to their LG doesn't mean it would have been smart for the Bills to.

Edited July 20, 2013 by biglukes

[Best Player Available]

Because a well run team does not spend $9M per year on a LG. It's as simple as that.

What does a well run team, and the Buffalo Bills have in common? Just wondering.

[JohnC]

In 2011 - two years ago - the Patriots re-upped Mankins for 6 years @ $51 million. I'd argue the 2013 version of that contract is $9M/season (although those numbers are skewed, as you know - the player never gets that much), and I'd also argue that the Patriots are a well-run organization.

 

Next you're going to tell me that Levitre is no Mankins. While that might be true, (i) you made a general statement, which I've rebutted; and (ii) Levitre was the best guard on the market this year, just like Mankins was in 2011. The team doesn't set the market. The market sets the market.

 

You are absolutely correct that the team doesn't set the market. The market sets the market. But it is the individual team that has to decide whether the market price is appropriate for the team. If you have five upper tier players whose contracts are up to be negotiated at the same time and their contract values are all at the upper end of the market then under the cap system you won't be able to retain all of them. In that scenario the team has to determine which players can be replaced at a lower cost and which players are more essential to the success of the team.

 

You cited the Patriots as a well run organization. I agree with you. But what happened this offseason? They let Welker go, the best slot receiver in the game, and signed Amendola to a cheaper contract than what Welker wanted from them. How a team values one player can be very different on how the same player is valued on another team. Welker went to Denver at a price that the Patriots weren't willing to pay. Another example of that is that the Bills signed Mario Williams to a golden contract while the Texans let him walk. They drafted a better player in Watts and paid him less than Mario if they would have kept him. The Texans made a decison that was right for them and the Bills made a decision on what was right for them. That's how the cap system works.

 

Each team has different needs and circumstances. It might not be smart to keep Levitre at a market rate, on the other hand it might be smart fro the Bills to keep Byrd at the market rate. My point is simply that in decidng whether to pay or not pay a player the market rate and keep or not keep a player is a multi-layered decision-making process. It is not as simple as you made it out to be. What is right for one team is not necessarily right for another team.

[thewildrabbit]

Not sure why you think Tannehill was a pocket passer and Manuel is not. Manuel was much more accurate, had a considerably higher ypa, higher passer rating and quite a bit more experience. Tannehill only played QB for a year and a half at A&M and he was a mess his last season. A&M blew second half leads almost every game. He looked the opposite of clutch. He caught 100 passes as a receiver the previous two years.

 

As for ruining a rookie QB.....like I said, Bills fans are sometimes out of touch and I think your take is an example. It's not a mistake that Cam Newton came into the NFL and threw for 400 plus yards in his first game when people were expecting him to struggle. The game has changed. It's more QB friendly than college ball now. Russell Wilson was far more dynamic as a rookie with Seattle than he was the year before at Wisconsin. Tannehill was better. Luck was even better. Kaepernick wasn't carefully groomed into a dynamic QB.....he was running wildcat and zone read stuff for the first year and a half and they threw him into the fire in only his second year after basically being a running QB in college. Manuel is more NFL prepared than Kaepernick. Not saying he is better, but Manuel played a lot more as a pocket passer and against stronger competition.

No way is the NFL more QB "friendly" now! The NFL is much faster, players hit way harder as they are grown men and not boys still developing into men. The NFL is also less forgiving when you make a mistake. Those players you mention are on some pretty good teams and not doing it all on their own. Both Newton and Tennehill still haven't gotten past 7-9 yet and the latter's number kinda stink at 12 TD's & 13 INT's. Kaepernik plays behind the very best O line currently in the NFL. Wilson is also on a very very good team.

 

Two things you seem to not to get. First, EJ and his footwork and throwing mechanics need further development or he will look very bad in an "NFL" pocket Lets not forget that EJ was graded as a 4th round "project" QB by most teams before the senior bowl. So because EJ got the MVP of the game in a very weak QB class doesn't mean this guy is another Kaepernick or Wilson. Like I said, the NFL is much less forgiving when you make a mistake. Not getting protections right, not reading the defense, not finding the proper receiver, over throwing or under throwing will make this rookie look really bad. Should things not go so well it could ruin his confidence very quickly. AKA Losman & Edwards.

 

Second, we certainly don't know what kind of team Marrone will field, nobody knows. I can tell this for a fact, there is no way the Bills offense is going to be as good as either the Seahawks or the 49ers. In fact, that line probably won't even be as good as last years line without Levitre. Lets be realistic here, this is the 6-10 Buffalo Bills were are talking about, with bad bad teams the last 13 years.

 

Go back to 2010 when Gailey first got to Buffalo, and every one here thought there was no way Chan could possibly do worse then skeletor. Then the Bills went 0-8 to start the season with Fitz virtually running for his life game after game, and Fitz was pretty good at running for his life. Now think about what an unprepared rookie QB would have looked like in that offense. Look what Trent Edwards looked like!

 

 

New set of receivers, different line, and an entirely different offensive scheme the entire team needs to learn. Kolb is very familiar with that new scheme, and I'd rather see the experienced QB out there finding the flaws and weaknesses in the offense so that the rookie doesn't get pounded into dust while the coaches figure things out. So, why put undo pressure on a rookie QB to perform unless you have the proper conditions for him to succeed and excel?

 

Perhaps I'm being overly apprehensive about the situation. Perhaps the coaches will have the team operating like a Swiss watch. They will have EJ's flaws corrected in training camp as he picks up the new offense and how the NFL works fast enough to have Kolb getting splinters in his butt. (We can only hope!)

 

But ya know what, I'd rather the coaches err on the side of caution and take things slowly with a rookie QB playing in a new scheme with new players, new coaches. Rather then have that 1st round pick end up concussed and running for his life. I've seen enough of the already. I'd much rather see Kolb out there getting his a$$ handed to him then the rookie.

[Bill from NYC]

>>>>>Plus the Patriots don't really spend money on anyone who isn't Brady or one of a very select group of guys like Gronk and Willfork. They identified Mankins as one of those select core guys to give that kind of money to.

 

Just because New England gave crazy money to their LG doesn't mean it would have been smart for the Bills to.<<<<

 

Then why draft him at all? They traded up to the 2nd round to select him and since then he has outplayed everyone on the OL, including the beloved Wood. In fact, it isn't close. Was the purpose of taking him to merely help win a few games for a lousy team? The Bills, especially since Levy/Jauron, whiffed on pick after pick. This time they really did click and just let him walk.

[JohnC]

eball, let's make no mistake. The Bills are not a well run team. Next, they have what, 18 million dollars in cap space? They could have guaranteed Levitre's first year and part of his second year and not taken any risk in terms of cap problems. This is what Tampa did with Revis. After his first season, Revis can be cut with no cap hit.

 

JohnC >>>Is Levitre better than his replacement, whoever it may be? Probably so.<<<

Probably so? He was our best pass blocker. A left guard with LT agility. They didn't draft his replacement. No, they ae going with a bargain basement journeyman. We have seen the Bills do this to their OL time and again. How often did it work? This is bound to hinder both Manuel and yes, Spiller. Let's hope the defense improved.

 

Btw I had to answer in this format because my enter key still doesnt work while responding to posts. It's getting quite annoying and apparently others have this same problem.

 

Bill, It is evident that they simply don't value the position as much as you do. There are organizations that place much more value at the tackle positions than the guard positions. Some organizations put a lot of resources in the interior of the line and other organizations don't There are teams that place much more value on the CB positions than the safety positions. There are other organizations that prize playmaker safeties. Bill Polian has stated that he doesn't like to spend too much on guards and safeties. Different organizations have different philosophies. Sometimes the issue isn't right or wrong so much as that there is a difference in philosophy as to how to build a roster and apportion cap money.

[thewildrabbit]

You are absolutely correct that the team doesn't set the market. The market sets the market. But it is the individual team that has to decide whether the market price is appropriate for the team. If you have five upper tier players whose contracts are up to be negotiated at the same time and their contract values are all at the upper end of the market then under the cap system you won't be able to retain all of them. In that scenario the team has to determine which players can be replaced at a lower cost and which players are more essential to the success of the team.

 

You cited the Patriots as a well run organization. I agree with you. But what happened this offseason? They let Welker go, the best slot receiver in the game, and signed Amendola to a cheaper contract than what Welker wanted from them. How a team values one player can be very different on how the same player is valued on another team. Welker went to Denver at a price that the Patriots weren't willing to pay. Another example of that is that the Bills signed Mario Williams to a golden contract while the Texans let him walk. They drafted a better player in Watts and paid him less than Mario if they would have kept him. The Texans made a decison that was right for them and the Bills made a decision on what was right for them. That's how the cap system works.

 

Each team has different needs and circumstances. It might not be smart to keep Levitre at a market rate, on the other hand it might be smart fro the Bills to keep Byrd at the market rate. My point is simply that in decidng whether to pay or not pay a player the market rate and keep or not keep a player is a multi-layered decision-making process. It is not as simple as you made it out to be. What is right for one team is not necessarily right for another team.

Actually the Patriots owner stated that they offered Welker more...

 

 

""When you come right down to the bottom line, he accepted a deal in Denver that is less money than what we offered him.

“In fact, he has a one-year deal in Denver for $6 million. Our last offer, before we would have even gone up and before we thought we were going into free agency, was a $10 million offer with incentives that would have earned him another $6 million if he performed the way he had the previous two years. But in Denver, he’s going to count $4 million against the cap this coming year and $8 million the second year. There is no guarantee that he plays the second year there. He will get $6 million the first year. Our deal, he would have gotten $8 million the first year, our last offer to him.

“So in fact, our offer was better than what in fact he got from Denver.”

 

 

It was Welker's choice to leave New England, and is more then likely very happy to be out from under Belichick's thumb. Brady is probably still fuming over this move

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/03/18/patriots-owner-robert-kraft-everyone-wanted-wes-welker-back/r9qpt0z9FvmepKwwowRxBP/story.html

 

 

 

The Buffalo Bills overpaid for Super Mario because they didn't have the ability to find a pass rusher in the draft. Arakpo over Maybin Clay Matthews, JPP, JJ Watt, or even Ryan Kerrigan.

[K-9]

To be honest, at times I think of Manuel a a running quarterback. I think he is a fine, instinctive runner. When a QB has this much ability in one area they tend to go for it as a reflex, or so it would seem. For instance, Bledsoe had a circus arm. He knew that if given time, he could drop a 60 yard pass straight down into the hands of a reveiver. This would cause him to at times wait too long to throw. And on those Bills teams there was little to no time due to some of the worst offensive lines ever assembled in the NFL.

 

I am really looking forward to watching this kid. He does seem raw, but he also seems to be a smart player. I think that this can set him apart from Losman. JP had talent galore, but imo he never had a feel for the game.

 

And Badol, not to beat a dead horse, but why would the Bills give up their most solid pass protector (Levitre) under these conditions? Does this indicate that they expect Manuel to run alot, or am I reading too much into it?

 

Not to beat that same dead horse, but the Bills didn't "give up" Levitre. He chose to go. And short of making him the highest paid guard in the history of football BEFORE he became a free agent, he wasn't gonna forego the chance at his payday, as he stated. Nor should he have. The Bills had no control over the situation. If want to argue whether they should have matched that offer from the Titans, fine. But from where I'm sitting, that's a ridiculous number to pay a one-dimensional G who, while a good tactician, is average at best as a run blocker and is too often overpowered at the POA. Besides, they need to earmark a big chunk of that money to re-sign Wood who, while not as durable so far, is the better player and more important piece of the puzzle at the moment.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[thewildrabbit]

>>>>>Plus the Patriots don't really spend money on anyone who isn't Brady or one of a very select group of guys like Gronk and Willfork. They identified Mankins as one of those select core guys to give that kind of money to.

 

Just because New England gave crazy money to their LG doesn't mean it would have been smart for the Bills to.<<<<

 

Then why draft him at all? They traded up to the 2nd round to select him and since then he has outplayed everyone on the OL, including the beloved Wood. In fact, it isn't close. Was the purpose of taking him to merely help win a few games for a lousy team? The Bills, especially since Levy/Jauron, whiffed on pick after pick. This time they really did click and just let him walk.

More importantly didn't replace him with anyone even close to his talent. Not in the draft, and not in free agency. Now, how long will it take for the Bills to find another LG as good, as durable?

 

Like I said... same stuff, different year.

[K-9]

>>>>>Plus the Patriots don't really spend money on anyone who isn't Brady or one of a very select group of guys like Gronk and Willfork. They identified Mankins as one of those select core guys to give that kind of money to.

 

Just because New England gave crazy money to their LG doesn't mean it would have been smart for the Bills to.<<<<

 

Then why draft him at all? They traded up to the 2nd round to select him and since then he has outplayed everyone on the OL, including the beloved Wood. In fact, it isn't close. Was the purpose of taking him to merely help win a few games for a lousy team? The Bills, especially since Levy/Jauron, whiffed on pick after pick. This time they really did click and just let him walk.

 

Sorry Bill. I've always enjoyed your perspective around here, particularly as it relates to often overlooked aspects of line play, but this statement misses the mark by a lot. The only superior quality Levitre possesses over Wood is durability. And Wood's injuries are more dumb luck than anything else.

 

GO BILLS!!!