Why I am not optimistic about this team

[Coach Tuesday]

I don't buy it, at least not to the degree you state. Overdorf reports to Brandon, not the other way around. I'd like to know how you can make those statements with such certainty.

 

Additionally, Whaley's been here for 3+ years and certainly knows how the organization is run. And contrary to popular opinion on this board, LG isn't considered a particularly difficult position to fill.

 

As I said, partly pure speculation on my part, partly informed speculation. I can't say anymore than that and I understand that won't be good enough for many. And I hope I'm wrong in any event.

[eball]

@MikeSpeed -- I agree practice isn't the determining factor, but it should at least give coaches the idea if the QB is seeing the "right" things and making good decisions. You can't replicate true in-game pressure during practice, though.

 

I have been pushing for EJ to start on September 8 from Day One. The only reason to start Kolb is if there is a significant disparity that is obvious to anyone watching practice -- and if that is the case, they need to decide if it's just some seasoning EJ needs or if it's a bigger problem.

 

The reason Aaron Rodgers didn't start immediately in Green Bay isn't because they decided he needed seasoning -- it's because they still had Brett freaking Favre.

 

Far and away, the trend is to start 1st round QBs immediately. They're picked there for a reason and you need to see what you've got.

[reddogblitz]

I'll suggest that Manuel's "pedigree" is significantly more advanced than Kaepernick's was coming out of college. Consider the schools at which they played, the competition faced, and complexity of systems played.

While EJ's "pedigree" may be better, IMHO Colin looked to be much better in college than EJ both in his ability to run and pass the ball. Especially the long ball. And in college, Colin showed the gutsy play and leadership that successful QBs have.

 

If I had my choice between Colin and EJ I'd go with Colin all day long and twice on Sundays.

 

That said, I hope EJ turns out to be really goo.

 

Go BIILS !!

[Sisyphean Bills]

Hmmmm, and not a word on my other point?

 

PTR

 

Overdorf handles contracts. Nobody but you equates this with Emperor Palpatine.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

 

Oh simmer down dude. Seriously. If you only want rosy outlooks, why bother looking at this thread.

I agree with Chris. Why bother if we are so f##ked?

 

PTR

[Coach Tuesday]

I agree with Chris. Why bother if we are so f##ked?

 

PTR

 

 

Really, you agree with that? I never would have guessed. You seem so objective most of the time.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

 

Overdorf handles contracts. Nobody but you equates this with Emperor Palpatine.

But many believe that Overdorf secretly controls the franchise.

 

 

 

 

Really, you agree with that? I never would have guessed. You seem so objective most of the time.

Objectivity...yeah you cornered that market.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Really, you agree with that? I never would have guessed. You seem so objective most of the time.

 

And miss out on an opportunity to blame fellow fans?

[Luxy312]

While EJ's "pedigree" may be better, IMHO Colin looked to be much better in college than EJ both in his ability to run and pass the ball. Especially the long ball. And in college, Colin showed the gutsy play and leadership that successful QBs have.

 

If I had my choice between Colin and EJ I'd go with Colin all day long and twice on Sundays.

 

That said, I hope EJ turns out to be really goo.

 

Go BIILS !!

 

Not sure I would agree there. A 58.2% completion percentage in college isn't all that great. EJ's was 66.9%. EJ also had a higher QBR. Also, you have to temper college stats by the level of the competition you're facing. Go back and look at what Kaep did against ranked talent. Not impressed at all with his numbers, particularly the W/L which comes out to 1-7. Statements about revisionist history come off fun (I knew Russell Wilson was going to be a star....no), but don't get you anywhere. No question that Kaep was a better runner in college. Temper it against the level of talent and I'm not all that impressed.

[Sisyphean Bills]

I look at Kolb and think exactly the opposite that you do. He is already a pro and a somewhat seasoned starting NFL QB who fits in perfectly with a WCO scheme that Marrone / Hackett want to run here in Buffalo. I would much rather see Kolb behind that O line then a rookie who might end up running for his life over and over to his ultimate demise. Both EJ and Bills fans deserve better.

 

In regards to that last statement, I think that has been the mindset of the Bills previous regimes, and I hope to heck that the new coaches don't waste that first round pick by letting him get killed in a new system behind a suspect line. I would be much happier watching Kolb set that offense up (good or bad) for the rookie to step in. The last thing I want to see is another young Bills QB becoming shell shocked and continually concussed.

 

I get the reason the Bills went after EJ over the other QB's in the draft, in that he has the arm strength to put a tight spiral on a ball that will cut thru those crazy winds at the Ralph. Plus he is also squeaky clean intangible wise, and a sorta a Cam Newton clone without the bad history behind him. This kid could be the "real deal" franchise QB Bills fans have been dreaming of since the Jim Kelly days. But he is no where near ready to be a starting NFL QB right out of the gate IMO. He needs to study a ton of film, work on his footwork and mechanics, and pick Kolbs brain for all the intricate details of playing in the NFL. The speed of the NFL game is sometimes very difficult to adjust to. Like JohnC mentioned above, I'm really hoping this new staff sits, and grooms EJ like the 49ers did with Colin Kaepernick.

 

On the other hand, if Manuel is another JP Losman, wouldn't it be better to know it quicker rather than prolong the agony? In a way, if Manuel can't beat out a journeyman scrub like Kolb, then was he really the franchise savior some are dreaming about? There is not a lot of room for late bloomers in today's NFL... players or coaches.

[reddogblitz]

Not sure I would agree there. A 58.2% completion percentage in college isn't all that great. EJ's was 66.9%. EJ also had a higher QBR. Also, you have to temper college stats by the level of the competition you're facing. Go back and look at what Kaep did against ranked talent. Not impressed at all with his numbers, particularly the W/L which comes out to 1-7. Statements about revisionist history come off fun (I knew Russell Wilson was going to be a star....no), but don't get you anywhere. No question that Kaep was a better runner in college. Temper it against the level of talent and I'm not all that impressed.

Stats Schmats.

 

I don't go by stats as much as most on here. I prefer the eye ball test taking in all aspects of their game. I saw several Colin Kaepernick games when he was playing for the Wolf Pack. The level of competition cuts both ways. His team didn't have near the talent EJ's did. I just remember watching him and noting that in addition to being a good runner, he was also a very good passer. He can throw the long ball while it remains to be seen if EJ can. Sure EJ can throw it a country mile with a tight spiral, but at least in the games I've seen, it may or may not come down in the same Zip code as the WR. So what good is that?

 

I remember in the Nevada vs Boise St game where Boise St had won 41 out of the last 43 or whatever it was, Colin kept bringing 'em back with monster QB plays running and passing. And his team responded and they got the win in a huge upset. He has one of the often overlooked QB qualities at TBD which is leadership. A good leader at QB can raise the level of play of the entire team. I hope EJ (or Kolb) can provide that for us this year.

 

Don't get me wrong, I have very high hopes for EJ.

 

However, if I could take my pick on the 2, it'd be Colin.

Edited July 19, 2013 by reddogblitz

[eball]

Stats Schmats.

 

I don't go by stats as much as most on here. I prefer the eye ball test taking in all aspects of their game. I saw several Colin Kaepernick games when he was playing for the Wolf Pack. The level of competition cuts both ways. His team didn't have near the talent EJ's did. I just remember watching him and noting that in addition to being a good runner, he was also a very good passer. He can throw the long ball while it remains to be seen if EJ can. Sure EJ can throw it a country mile with a tight spiral, but at least in the games I've seen, it may or may not come down in the same Zip code as the WR. So what good is that?

 

I remember in the Nevada vs Boise St game where Boise St had won 41 out of the last 43 or whatever it was, Colin kept bringing 'em back with monster QB plays running and passing. And his team responded and they got the win in a huge upset. He has one of the often overlooked QB qualities at TBD which is leadership. A good leader at QB can raise the level of play of the entire team. I hope EJ (or Kolb) can provide that for us this year.

 

Don't get me wrong, I have very high hopes for EJ.

 

However, if I could take my pick on the 2, it'd be Colin.

 

I know you don't like stats, but you apparently missed the analysis that showed EJ was the most accurate downfield passer of any QB who came out this year, and he compared very favorably with the guys from last year as well (Luck, Griffin). Those numbers are somewhere in the original EJ thread.

[Luxy312]

I know you don't like stats, but you apparently missed the analysis that showed EJ was the most accurate downfield passer of any QB who came out this year, and he compared very favorably with the guys from last year as well (Luck, Griffin). Those numbers are somewhere in the original EJ thread.

 

But the "eyeball test" can't be disputed. Also, looking at just one game (as he cited) is better than looking at the collective body of work. LOL. Made me laugh.

[reddogblitz]

But the "eyeball test" can't be disputed. Also, looking at just one game (as he cited) is better than looking at the collective body of work. LOL. Made me laugh.

Actually I watched about 4 EJ games. The downfield passer stat can be skewed by plays with long RAC. Fl St ran an offense similar to Coach Gailey's in that they tried to hit short passes in space to get a good RAC. It seemed to work pretty well at that as well. In the games I saw there were plays where they'd hit a guy on a pass that traveled <10 yards but ended up being for a big gain.

 

We'll start seeing in a few weeks. I'm not dogging they guy, I just have questions.

 

Go EJ

 

Go BILLS !!

[chris heff]

 

 

 

Really, you agree with that? I never would have guessed. You seem so objective most of the time.

What does objectivity have to do with this? This post is about optimism vs pessimism, one is not better than the other. They are coping mechanisms. They both however require the formation of an opinion, and even if that opinion is based on facts, the fact that it is an opinion makes it subjective.

 

In your posts you have stated that in effect the Bills are doomed to fail because of Jim Overdorf and that you have personal knowledge as to his state of mind. The personal knowledge of his state of mind is subjective, unless Overdorf told you personally that all he cares about is his retirement package (I am using this as an example, I am not trying to be a jerk). I am not disagreeing with your opinion of Overdorf, nor am I agreeing with it. As I wrote in another post, I have long felt that Mr. Wilson was the problem, I view Mr. Overdorf as an extension of Mr. Wilson. However as I have also previously stated, this off season has a decidedly different feel.

 

As to how you spend your Sundays in the fall, that is most certainly your business. I was merely suggesting that if you firmly believe that the Bills are destined to fail yet again, don't toucher youself. Furthermore I only made a suggestion as to how to solve this dilema. I solved it with a DVR.

Edited July 19, 2013 by chris heff

[thewildrabbit]

On the other hand, if Manuel is another JP Losman, wouldn't it be better to know it quicker rather than prolong the agony? In a way, if Manuel can't beat out a journeyman scrub like Kolb, then was he really the franchise savior some are dreaming about? There is not a lot of room for late bloomers in today's NFL... players or coaches.

My take is this coaching staff needs to find out exactly what they have in term of protection for any QB they choose.

 

Kevin Kolb is not as bad as many here make him out to be. My reasoning, simply think about the 2012 season and the Arizona Cardinals starting out 4-1 with Kolb at QB, and who they beat to get 4-1. The Seahawks, a playoff team, the Patriots, a playoff team, the Eagles, and the Dolphins. Now think about what happened to that Arizona team after Kolb went down. The Cards only won a single game the rest of the year after Kolb went down, and that was against the Lions.

 

Now, think about just how bad that Cardinal O line was against the very average 6-10 Buffalo Bills team in which the Bills knocked Kolb out for the season. It shows me that Kolb knows how to get by with some shoddy protections, at least for awhile. The Bills line should offer better protection and a far better run game. I can visualize Kolb doing better in a new offense simply because he has some decent prior NFL experience.

 

With Kolb what you see is what you get, and perhaps Marrone / Hacket can hopefully help further his development somewhat. OTOH, EJ is very raw and will need time to develop as he has issues with his footwork, he tends to cut his drop backs short, and doesn't thoroughly rotate his hips to transfer his weight properly which leads to bad ball placement. Also, he tends to lift his back leg when he throws to generate power, and this causes balls to fall short. Footwork and technique can be corrected by the coaches.

 

The NFL is all about being a pocket passer, and although some new QB's are doing well with the read option stuff...its also gets them injured. (RG3) How many torn ACL's before those 3 first round picks are wasted? None of these running QB's have won a SB yet , and I doubt their careers will last very long once NFL defenses learn to cope with so many QB's running now. Cam Newton has yet to even see a winning record 6-10 / 7-9

 

But hey, it is up to the coaches and I hope they take it slow with EJ as I've seen enough young QB's thrown to the wolves in Buffalo the last few years

[Coach Tuesday]

 

What does objectivity have to do with this? This post is about optimism vs pessimism, one is not better than the other. They are coping mechanisms. They both however require the formation of an opinion, and even if that opinion is based on facts, the fact that it is an opinion makes it subjective.

 

In your posts you have stated that in effect the Bills are doomed to fail because of Jim Overdorf and that you have personal knowledge as to his state of mind. The personal knowledge of his state of mind is subjective, unless Overdorf told you personally that all he cares about is his retirement package (I am using this as an example, I am not trying to be a jerk). I am not disagreeing with your opinion of Overdorf, nor am I agreeing with it. As I wrote in another post, I have long felt that Mr. Wilson was the problem, I view Mr. Overdorf as an extension of Mr. Wilson. However as I have also previously stated, this off season has a decidedly different feel.

 

As to how you spend your Sundays in the fall, that is most certainly your business. I was merely suggesting that if you firmly believe that the Bills are destined to fail yet again, don't toucher youself. Furthermore I only made a suggestion as to how to solve this dilema. I solved it with a DVR.

 

I do DVR many of the games. Just a function of having a busy job and kids and not a lot of free time to mess around with. So can I continue to vent my opinions?

[dave mcbride]

 

But many believe that Overdorf secretly controls the franchise.

 

 

Objectivity...yeah you cornered that market.

Many??

 

No. Only GG. And GG always had a strong argument. He hasn't made a peep about the issue since Wilson handed off the baton to Brandon.

[BADOLBILZ]

You summarized very well the issue regarding Manuel as a qb prospect. He had better physical tools than the other prospects in this year's draft class. There are times when he makes eye catching plays and there are many times when there is nothing about his play that sticks out. Does he have the "it" factor? Probably not, because there are too many interludes where he doesn't stand out. A qb such as Nassib is a more even keel play who would have been a safer bet. This staff decided to bet on the better talent. I'm glad they did.

 

What is the best approach to take with Manuel as a rookie? Should he immediately be thrown into the fire of competition or should he be eased in ? I simply don't know. My preference is to get him on the field sooner rather than later, but I don't want to set back his development and confidence by playing someone who isn't prepared to handle the onslaught. This is where coaching becomes critical.

 

In my view regardless what the team's record is (probably less than .500) if Manuel demonstrates that he can be a legitimate frachise qb, then the season is a success. For nearlya decade the bumbling front office was very lax in its pursuit of a credible franchise qb. That passive approach to addressing the most important position in the game was emblematic of its stupidity!

 

 

Wow! There are some real holy than thou Bills fans on here. I guess if you aren't sitting in the Ralph, bare chested, at -30 degrees wind chill, waving your season tickets and prasing every move ever made by the Bills, good or bad, then you're not a true fan.

 

My "not a true Bills fan" take on EJ.

I say start him day one. None of this screwing around. If he's going to be good you'll see flashes through out the year. If he's not, we need to know NOW so we can draft another QB high next year. If we wait until Kolb is screwing up so bad that he has to be pulled, or let EJ sit the entire year to "groom" him, we won't know anything at the end of the year.

 

If we let him sit out this year and start him next year and we find out he is not NFL quality, then year 3 of this new staff's rebuild they will be drafting a QB. Year 3 of a rebuild with another new QB... . If we need to get a new QB let it be year 2 so year 3 he will have had some experience.

 

Some may argue that the coaches should be able to tell if EJ is progressing in practice. That doesn't fly with me either. Edwards was a HOF QB in practice.

 

Having our QB be a ? at the end of this year is unexceptable!

 

I look at Kolb and think exactly the opposite that you do. He is already a pro and a somewhat seasoned starting NFL QB who fits in perfectly with a WCO scheme that Marrone / Hackett want to run here in Buffalo. I would much rather see Kolb behind that O line then a rookie who might end up running for his life over and over to his ultimate demise. Both EJ and Bills fans deserve better.

 

In regards to that last statement, I think that has been the mindset of the Bills previous regimes, and I hope to heck that the new coaches don't waste that first round pick by letting him get killed in a new system behind a suspect line. I would be much happier watching Kolb set that offense up (good or bad) for the rookie to step in. The last thing I want to see is another young Bills QB becoming shell shocked and continually concussed.

 

I get the reason the Bills went after EJ over the other QB's in the draft, in that he has the arm strength to put a tight spiral on a ball that will cut thru those crazy winds at the Ralph. Plus he is also squeaky clean intangible wise, and a sorta a Cam Newton clone without the bad history behind him. This kid could be the "real deal" franchise QB Bills fans have been dreaming of since the Jim Kelly days. But he is no where near ready to be a starting NFL QB right out of the gate IMO. He needs to study a ton of film, work on his footwork and mechanics, and pick Kolbs brain for all the intricate details of playing in the NFL. The speed of the NFL game is sometimes very difficult to adjust to. Like JohnC mentioned above, I'm really hoping this new staff sits, and grooms EJ like the 49ers did with Colin Kaepernick.

 

To be fair, you brush over the fact that Kolb is perhaps the laughingstock starting QB of the entire NFL. This is basically the equivalent of the Jaguars picking up Trent Edwards after the Bills cut him. One man's trash can be another man's treasure......but sometimes they are still trash. I think this is the case with Kolb. I think he is junk. If we hadn't been told otherwise by the Buffalo Bills I would think he was the empty tomato can that they brought in to make EJ's first kick an easy one.

 

As for bringing EJ along slowly, I gotta' agree with the succinct take by MikeSpeed in reply #100. I don't need a yes or no answer from EJ in year 1....but I need a yes or maybe. If it's a maybe I am trying to draft another franchise QB right away.

 

As for the "mindset or past regimes" being one of throwing a young QB into action immediately......I think we as Bills fans sometimes get out of touch with the league because the Bills have barely been competitve in the past 13 years. The reality is that it is MUCH easier for a young QB to succeed in the NFL now today than it was even when JP Losman and Trent Edwards came into the league. In fact, it may be a little easier for some to succeed in the NFL now than it is to shine while playing on their college team. Case it point, Ryan Tannehill. If ever there was a prospect that looked unprepared it was that guy. There were times when he was just AWFUL at Texas A&M, but he came into the NFL and he showed a great deal of promise for a rookie. The guy had some monster performances by old rookie standards.....including a beat down on our Bills in Miami. If that guy can do it, EJ Manuel should be able too. Manuel looked much better in college than the couple years that Tannehill played at A&M. I am not worrying about EJ getting beat up, the league just doesn't allow it. College football is much more dangerous for a QB.

[chris heff]

 

 

I do DVR many of the games. Just a function of having a busy job and kids and not a lot of free time to mess around with. So can I continue to vent my opinions?

You bet, vent on, that's the point isn't it?