Why I am not optimistic about this team

[BADOLBILZ]

Hope is great but there is no logical reason that I can see to think that the Bills will be a playoff team this season. It can happen, but it is far from likely.

My biggest complaint, as you already know, was losing Levitre. With the new CBA, salaries are going down at every position except QB. Those guys are getting rich, and the shrinkage of rookie contracts is going directly to the QBs and nobody else.

That said, our QB signed for 4 years/8.9 million. This is literal pocket change today. Levitre was only guaranteed 10 million in a long term deal. They let him walk, and this can only hurt Manuel and yes, Spiller.

Instead of considering the above circumstances they franchised Byrd, and things don't look so good. The truth is that they should have kept both of them. They could have signed Levitre AND tagged Byrd. The cap space was there.

 

In a semi-related matter, I watch a lot of clips on Manuel. From where I sit he is chock full of talent. Please explain to me what prevented him from being a top 5 pick in a poor draft for QBs. What was it that scared other GMs away from him? Why did even Jax pass on him?

 

Yes, the should have kept both. If you are going to draft players in the first couple rounds you should re-sign them if they pan out. Unless their replacement is as good or better. Maybe they think Aaron Williams is as good as Byrd. Any way you look at it, the Bills lost some decent young veteran contributors and acquired less of those.

 

Manuel has more talent than he showed at Florida State. He wasn't really a dominant player. Too inconsistent. The belief is that he will be a better pro, but only time will tell. Either way, if you are going to take a chance in the first round, let it be a QB with upside.

[PromoTheRobot]

Didn't mean to derail the conversation with a single letter spelling error. Must be another slow news day.

 

Hmmmm, and not a word on my other point?

 

PTR

[reddogblitz]

I'm not overly optimistic about the season, but I am optimistic. We won 6 games last year. We have some pretty good talent on both sides of the ball. We have some holes, but who doesn't?

 

If Pettine can get our D to be middle of the road and Hackett and company don't make or O worse than it was, I could see us easily going 8-8. Then maybe the ball bounces our way for a few games for a change and we're in the playoffs.

 

I don't know who will be the man under yet, but if we can what Fitz gave us with less TOs we're good. I could Kolb or EJ doing that. Maybe put in some designed runs with EJ too.

 

I was excited to see the Bills practicing the goal line play where they bunch everyone up and then pitch it to CJ and he outruns everyone to the pylon. Shawn Alexander scored a bunch of TDs in the Seahawks SB season in 2005 with that play. Taylor made for CJ. Gives me hope that our O coaching staff knows what they're doing. Could never understand why we didn't run that last year.

 

If Marrone is what we've been sold, so good that other teams wanted him too and we were prudent in getting him before someone else did, we should be better.

 

Go Bills !!

Edited July 18, 2013 by reddogblitz

[ganesh]

3 wins will be a success for this ****ty franchise

-1 -1 -1 -1 -1

 

I'm not overly optimistic about the season, but I am optimistic. We won 6 games last year. We have some pretty good talent on both sides of the ball. We have some holes, but who doesn't?

 

If Pettine can get our D to be middle of the road and Hackett and company don't make or O worse than it was, I could see us easily going 8-8. Then maybe the ball bounces our way for a few games for a change and we're in the playoffs.

 

I don't know who will be the man under yet, but if we can what Fitz gave us with less TOs we're good. I could Kolb or EJ doing that. Maybe put in some designed runs with EJ too.

 

I was excited to see the Bills practicing the goal line play where they bunch everyone up and then pitch it to CJ and he outruns everyone to the pylon. Shawn Alexander scored a bunch of TDs in the Seahawks SB season in 2005 with that play. Taylor made for CJ. Gives me hope that our O coaching staff knows what they're doing. Could never understand why we didn't run that last year.

 

If Marrone is what we've been sold, so good that other teams wanted him too and we were prudent in getting him before someone else did, we should be better.

 

Go Bills !!

 

If we can persevere, we could win 2 games against the Jets, a home game against Miami, Panthers, Bengals, Chiefs (all three at home), @ Browns and @ Jaguars. That is 8 wins that are easily achievable if the team is mentally prepared. (From the Rest, some winnable games would be home vs Patriots, and @ Bucanneers).

[JohnC]

Manuel has more talent than he showed at Florida State. He wasn't really a dominant player. Too inconsistent. The belief is that he will be a better pro, but only time will tell. Either way, if you are going to take a chance in the first round, let it be a QB with upside.

 

You summarized very well the issue regarding Manuel as a qb prospect. He had better physical tools than the other prospects in this year's draft class. There are times when he makes eye catching plays and there are many times when there is nothing about his play that sticks out. Does he have the "it" factor? Probably not, because there are too many interludes where he doesn't stand out. A qb such as Nassib is a more even keel play who would have been a safer bet. This staff decided to bet on the better talent. I'm glad they did.

 

What is the best approach to take with Manuel as a rookie? Should he immediately be thrown into the fire of competition or should he be eased in ? I simply don't know. My preference is to get him on the field sooner rather than later, but I don't want to set back his development and confidence by playing someone who isn't prepared to handle the onslaught. This is where coaching becomes critical.

 

In my view regardless what the team's record is (probably less than .500) if Manuel demonstrates that he can be a legitimate frachise qb, then the season is a success. For nearlya decade the bumbling front office was very lax in its pursuit of a credible franchise qb. That passive approach to addressing the most important position in the game was emblematic of its stupidity!

Edited July 18, 2013 by JohnC

[BADOLBILZ]

You summarized very well the issue regarding Manuel as a qb prospect. He had better physical tools than the other prospects in this year's draft class. There are times when he makes eye catching plays and there are many times when there is nothing about his play that sticks out. Does he have the "it" factor? Probably not, because there are too many interludes where he doesn't stand out. A qb such as Nassib is a more even keel play who would have been a safer bet. This staff decided to bet on the better talent. I'm glad they did.

 

What is the best approach to take with Manuel as a rookie? Should he immediately be thrown into the fire of competition or should he be eased in ? I simply don't know. My preference is to get him on the field sooner rather than later, but I don't want to set back his development and confidence by playing someone who isn't prepared to handle the onslaught. This is where coaching becomes critical.

 

In my view regardless what the team's record is (probably less than .500) if Manuel demonstrates that he can be a legitimate frachise qb, then the season is a success. For nearlya decade the bumbling front office was very lax in its pursuit of a credible franchise qb. That passive approach to addressing the most important position in the game was emblematic of its stupidity!

 

I have no interest whatsoever in seeing Kevin Kolb take a regular season snap in Buffalo. I am a football fan, and I liked watching Kolb play in college. But I thought the guy was a system QB, much the way that Case Keenum was after him at Houston. I couldn't believe he ended up going that high in the draft. Then he got propped up playing in Andy Reid's system. Point being, the guy has a false pedigree and is actually a fragile scrub at the NFL level. There is nothing to gain there. Manuel needs to play. If he gets ruined by the circumstance then he wasn't the guy for the job. Get another QB.

[JohnC]

I have no interest whatsoever in seeing Kevin Kolb take a regular season snap in Buffalo. I am a football fan, and I liked watching Kolb play in college. But I thought the guy was a system QB, much the Iway that Case Keenum was after him at Houston. I couldn't believe he ended up going that high in the draft. Then he got propped up playing in Andy Reid's system. Point being, the guy has a false pedigree and is actually a fragile scrub at the NFL level. There is nothing to gain there. Manuel needs to play. If he gets ruined by the circumstance then he wasn't the guy for the job. Get another QB.

 

I agree with almost everything you stated except for your emphatic point that there is no use for Kolb to play at all. EJ's playing time issue has nothing to do with Kolb. It has everything to do with his own preparation. The primary issue is what is the best approach to enhance EJ's development. If the coaches determine that it would be better for him to start after the first quarter or half of the season then I'm fine with it. If the coaches want to ease him in than so be it. No one who is realistic believes that this staff is invested in Kolb as a long term starter. That is a given.

 

As I previously stated my preference is for Manuel to play sooner rather than later. But if the coaches believe that he should in the beginning of the season sparingly play then I will be fine with it. Kaepernick's playing time his rookie season was very limited. The 49ers brought him along very gently. For the Bills I trust that they will make the right decision that will ensure his development rather than retard it.

 

Maybe after the preseason I will be less equivocating. As it stands I am open-minded on this issue.

[thewildrabbit]

I have no interest whatsoever in seeing Kevin Kolb take a regular season snap in Buffalo. I am a football fan, and I liked watching Kolb play in college. But I thought the guy was a system QB, much the way that Case Keenum was after him at Houston. I couldn't believe he ended up going that high in the draft. Then he got propped up playing in Andy Reid's system. Point being, the guy has a false pedigree and is actually a fragile scrub at the NFL level. There is nothing to gain there. Manuel needs to play. If he gets ruined by the circumstance then he wasn't the guy for the job. Get another QB.

I look at Kolb and think exactly the opposite that you do. He is already a pro and a somewhat seasoned starting NFL QB who fits in perfectly with a WCO scheme that Marrone / Hackett want to run here in Buffalo. I would much rather see Kolb behind that O line then a rookie who might end up running for his life over and over to his ultimate demise. Both EJ and Bills fans deserve better.

 

In regards to that last statement, I think that has been the mindset of the Bills previous regimes, and I hope to heck that the new coaches don't waste that first round pick by letting him get killed in a new system behind a suspect line. I would be much happier watching Kolb set that offense up (good or bad) for the rookie to step in. The last thing I want to see is another young Bills QB becoming shell shocked and continually concussed.

 

I get the reason the Bills went after EJ over the other QB's in the draft, in that he has the arm strength to put a tight spiral on a ball that will cut thru those crazy winds at the Ralph. Plus he is also squeaky clean intangible wise, and a sorta a Cam Newton clone without the bad history behind him. This kid could be the "real deal" franchise QB Bills fans have been dreaming of since the Jim Kelly days. But he is no where near ready to be a starting NFL QB right out of the gate IMO. He needs to study a ton of film, work on his footwork and mechanics, and pick Kolbs brain for all the intricate details of playing in the NFL. The speed of the NFL game is sometimes very difficult to adjust to. Like JohnC mentioned above, I'm really hoping this new staff sits, and grooms EJ like the 49ers did with Colin Kaepernick.

[eball]

I agree with almost everything you stated except for your emphatic point that there is no use for Kolb to play at all. EJ's playing time issue has nothing to do with Kolb. It has everything to do with his own preparation. The primary issue is what is the best approach to enhance EJ's development. If the coaches determine that it would be better for him to start after the first quarter or half of the season then I'm fine with it. If the coaches want to ease him in than so be it. No one who is realistic believes that this staff is invested in Kolb as a long term starter. That is a given.

 

As I previously stated my preference is for Manuel to play sooner rather than later. But if the coaches believe that he should in the beginning of the season sparingly play then I will be fine with it. Kaepernick's playing time his rookie season was very limited. The 49ers brought him along very gently. For the Bills I trust that they will make the right decision that will ensure his development rather than retard it.

 

Maybe after the preseason I will be less equivocating. As it stands I am open-minded on this issue.

 

Good post. I'll suggest that Manuel's "pedigree" is significantly more advanced than Kaepernick's was coming out of college. Consider the schools at which they played, the competition faced, and complexity of systems played.

 

I really hope Manuel grabs this bull by the horns beginning next Sunday and never looks back.

[JohnC]

Good post. I'll suggest that Manuel's "pedigree" is significantly more advanced than Kaepernick's was coming out of college. Consider the schools at which they played, the competition faced, and complexity of systems played.

 

I really hope Manuel grabs this bull by the horns beginning next Sunday and never looks back.

 

I'm not for or against a force feeding approach to playing EJ. The central issue is what is the best approach in facilitating his development. Rodgers is the best qb in the game. Did the sideline approach hurt or advance his almost immediate impact when he eventually played? Were the Packers foolish having him on the sidelines when he could have been in the huddle? Were the 49ers wise in the cautious way they handled Kaepernick in his rookie year. In his second year he became a dynamic player. He is still somewhat raw but withut a doubt he is a very scintillating playmaker.

 

I am very open-minded on this issue. What I want more than anything is to come out of this season with the knowledge that Manuel is going to be or not be the long term franchise qb for this franchise. Whether he gets immediate playing time or not by the end of the season we should have a strong inkling as to whether he is going to be the qb answer for this franchise.

 

 

Like JohnC mentioned above, I'm really hoping this new staff sits, and grooms EJ like the 49ers did with Colin Kaepernick.

 

That's not precisely what I said. My stance is the coaching staff has to determine what is the best approach (fast or slow track) to take in developing EJ. If he can handle the immersion approach and not be overwhelmed then I'm all for getting him on the field sooner rather than later. If the coaches deem that it is better for his development to take a more cautious incremental approach then so be it. The issue is what approach is in the long run the best approach to take with him. I'm open minded on this issue. At this point I simply don't know.

[Coach Tuesday]

Here is my view, somewhat informed and somewhat speculation:

 

Jim Overdorf handles the money, not Brandon. Overdorf negotiates the contracts, has final say over asset allocation (i.e., how much to spend in general, and how much to pay Player X). Overdorf handled the lease negotiations. Overdorf's role has not changed, despite the reorganization of the rest of OBD. Overdorf is focused primarily on two things: (i) the bottom line, and (ii) his retirement package, which largely depends on (i) and was also tied heavily to the lease negotiations (which he won). The Bills remain one of, if not the most bottom line-oriented teams in the National Football League. Winning is certainly a goal but it's far secondary to achieving a decent profit. None of this has changed.

 

While a savvy GM could work within this messed up structure and succeed, it will require significant foresight. For example, the likely departures of Levitre and Byrd could've been planned for and addressed a year or two ago by more strategic drafting and roster-filling. Levitre's replacement should've been on the roster already - the Bills should not have been in a position where they were scrambling to sign Doug Legursky weeks into the free agency period after Levitre bolted. This shows a complete lack of foresight - frankly, it demonstrates utter stupidity. While Whaley was not "the man" until this offseason, as the Director of Pro Personnel the past few years, he arguably should've and could've addressed the LG position before now. Hopefully he gets it in gear, realizes what he's dealing with in terms of Overdorf's motivations and goals, and can devise some kind of Moneyball-type approach that results in success. But we haven't yet seen that kind of creative thinking.

 

And then there is my uber-concern, which is that Whaley will figure it out and things will start to click, just in time for an ownership change. We're racing against the clock, after all...

 

All of this is why I remain highly skeptical of the Bills' chances for success this year, and in the foreseeable future.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Coach Tuesday

[chris heff]

Here is my view, somewhat informed and somewhat speculation:

 

Jim Overdorf handles the money, not Brandon. Overdorf negotiates the contracts, has final say over asset allocation (i.e., how much to spend in general, and how much to pay Player X). Overdorf handled the lease negotiations. Overdorf's role has not changed, despite the reorganization of the rest of OBD. Overdorf is focused primarily on two things: (i) the bottom line, and (ii) his retirement package, which largely depends on (i) and was also tied heavily to the lease negotiations (which he won). The Bills remain one of, if not the most bottom line-oriented teams in the National Football League. Winning is certainly a goal but it's far secondary to achieving a decent profit. None of this has changed.

 

While a savvy GM could work within this messed up structure and succeed, it will require significant foresight. For example, the likely departures of Levitre and Byrd could've been planned for and addressed a year or two ago by more strategic drafting and roster-filling. Levitre's replacement should've been on the roster already - the Bills should not have been in a position where they were scrambling to sign Doug Legursky weeks into the free agency period after Levitre bolted. This shows a complete lack of foresight - frankly, it demonstrates utter stupidity. While Whaley was not "the man" until this offseason, as the Director of Pro Personnel the past few years, he arguably should've and could've addressed the LG position before now. Hopefully he gets it in gear, realizes what he's dealing with in terms of Overdorf's motivations and goals, and can devise some kind of Moneyball-type approach that results in success. But we haven't yet seen that kind of creative thinking.

 

And then there is my uber-concern, which is that Whaley will figure it out and things will start to click, just in time for an ownership change. We're racing against the clock, after all...

 

All of this is why I remain highly skeptical of the Bills' chances for success this year, and in the foreseeable future.

So why bother? Do something else with your Sundays.

[Coach Tuesday]

So why bother? Do something else with your Sundays.

 

Oh simmer down dude. Seriously. If you only want rosy outlooks, why bother looking at this thread.

[Luxy312]

At the end of the day, there's always a choice to be optimistic or pessimistic about this team going into any season. Is losing Andy Levitre really going to be the end of the running game for the Bills? The guy was a decent guard, but not great by any stretch of anyone's imagination. Same with Chad Rinehart. Both of those guys are essentially "utility" offensive linemen that you can plug into other positions if need be. Quite frankly, I'm tired of this team trying to find gimmick players like this (including Brad Smith) and "finding" a place for them to play. It's bush league. Eric Wood is the Center and Cordy Glenn is our Left Tackle. The rest is important, but not really all that important.

 

In terms of the other comments about the Bills being cheap/etc., they're very short sighted and demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of the new collective bargaining agreement. The baseline cap number for 2013 is $123 million. Of that amount they are REQUIRED to spend at least $117 million on player payroll. The formula is of course complex, but the reality is not the same as it was a couple years ago, when the Bills could simply say they're using a "cash to cap" formula to limit spending. They did do it before, but cannot do it now. The rules have changed and in a significant way. There is also no "moneyball" system in the NFL as there can be in the NBA, MLB, or NHL. The institution of the salary cap a number of years ago got rid of that possibility. The new CBA now just doesn't allow Ralph Wilson's wallet to sound like a creaky door when he opens it.

 

So where does that leave me personally? I'm optimistic that they took the guy they wanted in lieu of the "experts" opinion. Kiko Alonso had character issues or would have been a much earlier draft pick by pretty much any standard you look at. Remember some other guys that went later that had attitude issues? Cornelius Bennett, Daryli Talley ring a bell to anyone? Da'Rick Rogers was another guy with issues. I'll go out on a limb and say that a healthy C.J. Spiller could be the most productive running back in the NFL. Anyone that watched him run last year can tell you that blocking from Andy Levitre is not the key to his success. He makes the first guy miss and then he's 8 yards down field or more. Big big threat in the passing game. I'm still pessimistic about our linebackers. I don't think it's an issue of play calling or scheme, but simply lack of ability. Alonso will help, but they need other guys that can play. I'm also pessimistic about Byrd. I'm blown away that he thinks he should be the highest paid safety in football. If he signs a 1-year deal, and earns it, then so be it. If he holds out, what does the team really have there? In short, the offense should be exciting, fun, and new. The defense not so much so. None the less, I'll have fun watching. At least the first part of the season anyway when they're still in it.

[eball]

Here is my view, somewhat informed and somewhat speculation:

 

Jim Overdorf handles the money, not Brandon. Overdorf negotiates the contracts, has final say over asset allocation (i.e., how much to spend in general, and how much to pay Player X). Overdorf handled the lease negotiations. Overdorf's role has not changed, despite the reorganization of the rest of OBD. Overdorf is focused primarily on two things: (i) the bottom line, and (ii) his retirement package, which largely depends on (i) and was also tied heavily to the lease negotiations (which he won). The Bills remain one of, if not the most bottom line-oriented teams in the National Football League. Winning is certainly a goal but it's far secondary to achieving a decent profit. None of this has changed.

 

While a savvy GM could work within this messed up structure and succeed, it will require significant foresight. For example, the likely departures of Levitre and Byrd could've been planned for and addressed a year or two ago by more strategic drafting and roster-filling. Levitre's replacement should've been on the roster already - the Bills should not have been in a position where they were scrambling to sign Doug Legursky weeks into the free agency period after Levitre bolted. This shows a complete lack of foresight - frankly, it demonstrates utter stupidity. While Whaley was not "the man" until this offseason, as the Director of Pro Personnel the past few years, he arguably should've and could've addressed the LG position before now. Hopefully he gets it in gear, realizes what he's dealing with in terms of Overdorf's motivations and goals, and can devise some kind of Moneyball-type approach that results in success. But we haven't yet seen that kind of creative thinking.

 

And then there is my uber-concern, which is that Whaley will figure it out and things will start to click, just in time for an ownership change. We're racing against the clock, after all...

 

All of this is why I remain highly skeptical of the Bills' chances for success this year, and in the foreseeable future.

 

I don't buy it, at least not to the degree you state. Overdorf reports to Brandon, not the other way around. I'd like to know how you can make those statements with such certainty.

 

Additionally, Whaley's been here for 3+ years and certainly knows how the organization is run. And contrary to popular opinion on this board, LG isn't considered a particularly difficult position to fill.

[Best Player Available]

In theory Littman and Overdorf report to Brandon. But something inside me thinks two LONG time Ralph employees that help build a billion dollar corp with the owner. Sometimes jet to detroit on money topics exclusive of a players salary demand.

[eball]

In theory Littman and Overdorf report to Brandon. But something inside me thinks two LONG time Ralph employees that help build a billion dollar corp with the owner. Sometimes jet to detroit on money topics exclusive of a players salary demand.

 

Well, at least you're admitting it's just your gut.

[Best Player Available]

Well, at least you're admitting it's just your gut.

Correct. Just like 99.9% of all opinion stated here.

[chris heff]

 

 

Oh simmer down dude. Seriously. If you only want rosy outlooks, why bother looking at this thread.

I'm not simmering, I'm serious. I have believed for a long time that the problem with the Bills is Ralph Wilson. This is meant in no way to disparage Mr. Wilson's contribution to the league, it is HOF worthy. I don't believe Ralph is cheap, I do believe money has been spent on the wrong people. Mr. Wilson has a long history of making bad personnel decision regarding key football management positions. Bad GMs, which lead to bad coaches and bad player personnel people. This team was dysfunctional long before Jim Overdorf.

 

I had resigned myself to the fact that nothing would change until ownership changed, or somehow, a GM would be hired either by accident or default that would change things. Like how Bill Polian became GM. The changes made this off season have made me optimistic. What occurred was very un-Ralph Wilson, young GM, college coach, round one QB. We shall see.

 

During this latest and long Bills dark age, I started it by going to a local sports bar for games, but for some time have had Directv. The beauty of Directv is that I can DVR the game and do something else with my Sunday. I will admit to watching the first few games live, but once the hand writting was on the wall, DVR time. I have found that this eases the pain.

Edited July 19, 2013 by chris heff

[MikeSpeed]

Wow! There are some real holy than thou Bills fans on here. I guess if you aren't sitting in the Ralph, bare chested, at -30 degrees wind chill, waving your season tickets and prasing every move ever made by the Bills, good or bad, then you're not a true fan.

 

My "not a true Bills fan" take on EJ.

I say start him day one. None of this screwing around. If he's going to be good you'll see flashes through out the year. If he's not, we need to know NOW so we can draft another QB high next year. If we wait until Kolb is screwing up so bad that he has to be pulled, or let EJ sit the entire year to "groom" him, we won't know anything at the end of the year.

 

If we let him sit out this year and start him next year and we find out he is not NFL quality, then year 3 of this new staff's rebuild they will be drafting a QB. Year 3 of a rebuild with another new QB... . If we need to get a new QB let it be year 2 so year 3 he will have had some experience.

 

Some may argue that the coaches should be able to tell if EJ is progressing in practice. That doesn't fly with me either. Edwards was a HOF QB in practice.

 

Having our QB be a ? at the end of this year is unexceptable!