KD in CA Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Couple of points upon which my reasoning is based: 1 -- I still believe Manuel will be the opening day starter, and whatever he lacks in experience compared to Fitz he will more than make up for with his accuracy, the ability to actually throw the ball more than 20 yards, and his running/athleticism. 2 -- The defense had talent last year but was the most horribly coached unit in all of football. Pettine WILL be a huge upgrade. If I'm wrong, we all lose. Let's hope that's not the case....I'd love to see the Bills with a top notch defense again. It's so fun to root for a team with a kick ass D.
chris heff Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 The season definitely came down to poor coaching and QB play. Some of those loses came down to one play (2nd game against NE, Tennessee, STL). We could have easily been a 9-7 team if the plays went our way, and that was with poor coaching and QB play. As long as our replacements prove to be an upgrade, I say we have a decent shot at a winning season. At the very least, I see us being better than 6-10. Thank God we didn't win those games and you all know the reasons why.
Big C Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Thank God we didn't win those games and you all know the reasons why. True dat.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Browns are much better than the Bills right now. How do you figure that? We went into Cleveland last year and beat them by 10 points. Both teams have new coaching staffs. What's your reasoning?
jaybee Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 (edited) This local blogger (Bob Matthews) breaks down success (or lack thereof) of teams after a 6-10 year. Of the 81 teams with 6-10 records since 1978, 23 made the playoffs the following season (28.4 percent) and 58 did not (71.6 percent). Read more: http://www.wham1180....l#ixzz2Yga5mgTY Edited July 10, 2013 by jaybee
3rdand12 Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 (edited) Nice. Thanks for posting about the article. I can't get too wrapped up in predictions for the upcoming season. The thing is that at this time of the year, so little is known about The Bills and to look at last season for clues to the next is like driving down an Interstate highway using only your rearview mirror to steer. Every season is different. This year's squad is way different. I like most of the off season moves that the FO has done, but until we see some action in pads and preseason games, we're not going to have much of an idea if we should get excited or get more Pepto-bismol and a fresh box of lunch bags. theres gotta be a story behind this thought ! Couple of points upon which my reasoning is based: 1 -- I still believe Manuel will be the opening day starter, and whatever he lacks in experience compared to Fitz he will more than make up for with his accuracy, the ability to actually throw the ball more than 20 yards, and his running/athleticism. 2 -- The defense had talent last year but was the most horribly coached unit in all of football. Pettine WILL be a huge upgrade. If I'm wrong, we all lose. Eball i think you are over doing it with that statement. Also Kolb could start throw the long ball and be accurate. His issues might more along the lines of ,,,reacting to pressure, and his abilty to stay healthy. I dont think # 1 is critical. 2 is partly correct but the number 3 is right out ! How about them Dolphins ? Edited July 10, 2013 by 3rdand12
San Jose Bills Fan Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 (edited) theres gotta be a story behind this thought ! I think the story is that Nanker's a very good writer. the number 3 is right out ! Nor shall thou count to 2 unless thy then proceed to 3! Edited July 10, 2013 by San Jose Bills Fan
Chandler#81 Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Is this that dadgum analytics-thingy I've been hearin so much about?
3rdand12 Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 (edited) : ) I am taking the fish over the jets in the division. wait did they win more than six ? The Bills and the evil empire are an enigma this season and jeebus only knows if Rex has has the team between his toes any more or that scoundrel Beelzebub's hoody is becoming threadbare. Can Marrone reverse the tide ? But we shall see/ all in good time my pretties , all in good time ps sjbf you , sir , rock. and deserve a nice shrubbery , not too big........ Edited July 11, 2013 by 3rdand12
machine gun kelly Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 I agree with Jefferr. I used in a conversation today about Wade Phillips is one of the best DC in football, just not a HC. If Pettine does what I think will happen, and they figure out Byrd's deal, we'll rank markedly better. This will put much less stress on an offense, we can run more, which is our strength, and now imagine EJ running a pistol part of the time with with Spiller. I know I'm in that honeymoon phase now with a couple of weeks before training camp, but I hate not having hope. Go Bills!
eball Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 theres gotta be a story behind this thought ! Eball i think you are over doing it with that statement. Also Kolb could start throw the long ball and be accurate. His issues might more along the lines of ,,,reacting to pressure, and his abilty to stay healthy. I dont think # 1 is critical. 2 is partly correct but the number 3 is right out ! How about them Dolphins ? I fear that Kolb just doesn't have that "clock" all good QBs need to get rid of the ball -- even the OTA reports had him taking a lot of "touch" sacks, and we know how he fared in Arizona (bad OL notwithstanding). As for the Fish -- name the last team who spent wildly in free agency and was a factor the following season. I can't think of one. It's the old Dan Snyder model. They spent like crazy to try and get fans in the seats, but the odds they actually put it all together and become a playoff contender are not good, in my opinion. They overpaid for Wallace. They overpaid for Ellerbe. They lost their best RB (Bush). I dunno, I just don't see them being any better than a .500 club.
chris heff Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 Do you think the roster will be better this year than last? Do you think this coaching staff is better? Then why would they have a worse record than last year? I don't see new schemes, new QB as a negative. These guys have been playing football all their lives. They can learn new schemes. I believe EJ starts, they protect him with he run and when necessary he can throw down field. As I have stated before the team now has a head coach, not just coordinators. Is it the schedule? There are teams on the schedule that will have worse years than expected. Every year there are teams that were suppose to be good that aren't and teams that were suppose to be bad that are good. Why at this point as a Bills fan would you want to believe they will be worse? Because they didn't hire the coach you wanted or draft the guy you wanted?
jletha Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 (edited) I love Grantland and I try to read most of Bill Barnwell's stuff because it is usually very insightful and he backs up most of his claims with relevant evidence and numbers. That being said, if you go back through his past articles from last year he wrote how fumble recovery rate is surprisingly telling for a teams success, as is point differential. There are really good articles hes written that clearly show a good way to predict a teams success is looking at some of these factors, so hes not just pulling these out of thin air. I think hes got it right. Edited July 11, 2013 by jletha
KD in CA Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 Do you think the roster will be better this year than last? No. Right now 2 of the 5 best players from last year are not in uniform for the Bills. Don't over-value the rookies. Every other team has them too and roster improvements have to be relative to other teams. Do you think this coaching staff is better? Yes; hopefully this is what will drive improvement on defense.
chris heff Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 No. Right now 2 of the 5 best players from last year are not in uniform for the Bills. Don't over-value the rookies. Every other team has them too and roster improvements have to be relative to other teams. Yes; hopefully this is what will drive improvement on defense. You have to give pretty significant value to first and second round picks, because they are expected to start. I believe that Manuel, Woods and Alonso to be an improvement. The defensive coaching would have to be better, it couldn't be worse. What about the offense? Do you think they will sit Spiller every time they get to the red zone? How about in your most important game against your biggest rival, you call a pass to your third round rookie receiver? Interception in the end zone, in the words of Bill Paxton, "game over man".
JESSEFEFFER Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 I agree with Jefferr. I used in a conversation today about Wade Phillips is one of the best DC in football, just not a HC. If Pettine does what I think will happen, and they figure out Byrd's deal, we'll rank markedly better. This will put much less stress on an offense, we can run more, which is our strength, and now imagine EJ running a pistol part of the time with with Spiller. I know I'm in that honeymoon phase now with a couple of weeks before training camp, but I hate not having hope. Go Bills! If you know your Shawshank: Andy Dufresne: [in letter to Red] Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.
3rdand12 Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 I fear that Kolb just doesn't have that "clock" all good QBs need to get rid of the ball -- even the OTA reports had him taking a lot of "touch" sacks, and we know how he fared in Arizona (bad OL notwithstanding). As for the Fish -- name the last team who spent wildly in free agency and was a factor the following season. I can't think of one. It's the old Dan Snyder model. They spent like crazy to try and get fans in the seats, but the odds they actually put it all together and become a playoff contender are not good, in my opinion. They overpaid for Wallace. They overpaid for Ellerbe. They lost their best RB (Bush). I dunno, I just don't see them being any better than a .500 club. Not sure about the Redskins comparison E But i can understand your point. I think the dolphins filled some gaps nicely and if they can settle down a bit after the shopping spree. And Cameron Wake got some pass rush help didnt he ? In regard to touch sacks. I noticed they had a couple practices where the defense just rocked . but as we all say its just guys running around in shorts. I think Kolb can throw the long ball accurately if he has time. Dont think i am not already an EJ backer though!
San Jose Bills Fan Posted July 12, 2013 Posted July 12, 2013 I love Grantland and I try to read most of Bill Barnwell's stuff because it is usually very insightful and he backs up most of his claims with relevant evidence and numbers. That being said, if you go back through his past articles from last year he wrote how fumble recovery rate is surprisingly telling for a teams success, as is point differential. There are really good articles hes written that clearly show a good way to predict a teams success is looking at some of these factors, so hes not just pulling these out of thin air. I think hes got it right. This is right. I only skimmed the article but Barnwell does good work and it seems like the premise of the article was about what some solid statistical indicators foretell.
billsfan89 Posted July 12, 2013 Posted July 12, 2013 (edited) Rookie Head coach and rookie QB really makes me question wither or not the team will really be able to make the playoffs this season. All I am hoping for is to be hopeful once this season ends. I want to see a defense that appears to be headed in the right direction and an offense with a promising QB and talent around that QB. We are likely a year away from the playoffs. EJ needs time and Kolb is a caretaker QB. The defense is a total wildcard and the talent in the offense is young in certain areas. Lets not forget that the head coach is a rookie which so there will be an adjustment period there. My optimistic scenario is EJ looks good enough to start and looks promising in an 8-8 season were the D looked to be improved and the weapons around EJ looked to have room to grow. And Marone and EJ look like they could be the real deal. The team needs to go through some growing pains and bring in another free agent and draft class to supplement the short comings of the roster. Yes I know 8-8 is hardly anything to be happy about but when your two most important on and off the field position are rookies it makes for a good foundation going forward. Edited July 12, 2013 by billsfan89
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