ubhockey Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I bought a lot of shares at $3.75 and 50% more at $8.80. The last buy was stupid on my part, but oh well, still in the black. My B/E price is $5.43 and the stock is at $5.99 despite nothing but good news coming for them and XM. I work in broadcast radio, just about all radio insider mags and experts say that within the next 2-4 years, broadcast radio will lose males completely to satelite radio. The outlook is gloom for broadcast radio in regards to the male market. This week Sirius announces huge deals with Ford motors and they are outselling XM now, yet somehow the stock sucks. Weird. Anyways, I'm in it for the longhaul with this stock. I'm actually thinking of picking up more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 its a correction because Sirius is way overvalued right now. By the time your average person jumps on a stock its too late- that stock has already had its run. I am considering shorting SIRI if the candlesticks are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubhockey Posted January 11, 2005 Author Share Posted January 11, 2005 its a correction because Sirius is way overvalued right now. By the time your average person jumps on a stock its too late- that stock has already had its run. I am considering shorting SIRI if the candlesticks are right 202008[/snapback] I'm no stock expert, but I understand radio and satelite radio more than the next guy. I know Sirius and XM will be VERY successful sooner than later. But why would you short sell now? At 6.00? I don't think it will get any lower than it is now. What if the stock jumps like it did before. Maybe I'm wrong, but isn't short selling a stock with huge potential a bad idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkFast Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 Sirius stock=cowbell avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubhockey Posted January 11, 2005 Author Share Posted January 11, 2005 Sirius stock=cowbell avatar 202020[/snapback] Haha ... tell me about. I'm just to lazy to change it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I'm no stock experts, but I understand radio and satelite radio more than the next guy. I know Sirius and XM will be VERY successful sooner than later. But why would you short sell now? At 6.00? I don't think it will get any lower than it is now. What if the stocks jumps like it did before. Maybe I'm wrong, but isn't short selling a stock with huge potential a bad idea? 202019[/snapback] I trade fluctuations in the market and dont hold on for the long term. What goes up does not neccesarily stay up. There is so much growth already priced into the stock. I look at technical analysis and overzealous buying. The financials on this stock are ridiculous when compared to the price. The company is still bleeding money and has yet to turn a profit. If you look at the chart it broke support on high volume. I have a feeling this thing is gonna plummet this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I trade fluctuations in the market and dont hold on for the long term. What goes up does not neccesarily stay up. There is so much growth already priced into the stock. I look at technical analysis and overzealous buying. The financials on this stock are ridiculous when compared to the price. The company is still bleeding money and has yet to turn a profit. If you look at the chart it broke support on high volume. I have a feeling this thing is gonna plummet this week 202030[/snapback] I think it's called "whipsawdust". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crows57 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 When you talk about an individual stock on a football message board it's a good indication that the stock is overvalued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
\GoBillsInDallas/ Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 This week Sirius announces huge deals with Ford motors and they are outselling XM now, yet somehow the stock sucks. Weird. 201999[/snapback] You really believe that, because a company is "good", that its stock "must go up"? If you do, there's this bridge in Brooklyn that I own that I can sell you dirt cheap! P.S. See "Rigas, John" and "Adelphia". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Jack Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 You really believe that, because a company is "good", that its stock "must go up"? If you do, there's this bridge in Brooklyn that I own that I can sell you dirt cheap! 202096[/snapback] Don't believe him, I bought that bridge last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KurtGodel77 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I'm no stock expert, but I understand radio and satelite radio more than the next guy. I know Sirius and XM will be VERY successful sooner than later. But why would you short sell now? At 6.00? I don't think it will get any lower than it is now. What if the stock jumps like it did before. Maybe I'm wrong, but isn't short selling a stock with huge potential a bad idea? 202019[/snapback] I have some background in finance, and you are right: short selling a stock with huge potential is a TERRIBLE idea unless you buy call options also. Let's say that a stock is trading at 50. A call option could give you the right to buy 100 shares of the stock at $80 a share (the strike price), any time within the next 90 days. If the stock goes above 80, the options are "in the money." So a stock is trading at 50, and you think there is an 80% chance it will go down to 12, and a 2% chance it will go to 200. You short sell 100 shares, and you buy call options to cover 100 shares. The short selling position means you own a negative number of shares, so the stock going to 200 would cost you $150 for every share you short sold. But that's okay, because the call option keeps you safe: you only lose the difference between the $50 the stock is currently trading at, and the $80 strike price of the call option; in this case $30 a share. When the stock is at $50, you might be able to buy $80 call options at $0.75 a share, whereas $70 call options might cost you $1.50 a share. But with those $70 strike price options, the most you could lose would be $20 a share instead of $30 a share. It's like paying more for car insurance to get a lower deductible. The price you pay for call options is based on several factors: the strike price of the option, the time until expiration, and the volatility of the underlying stock. If you don't want to spend a lot of money on options, get options that have a high strike price, a low time until expiration, and that are based on a stock that doesn't change in value very much. The problem with options like those is they are not likely to do you very much good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I work in broadcast radio, just about all radio insider mags and experts say that within the next 2-4 years, broadcast radio will lose males completely to satelite radio. The outlook is gloom for broadcast radio in regards to the male market. This week Sirius announces huge deals with Ford motors and they are outselling XM now, yet somehow the stock sucks. Weird. Anyways, I'm in it for the longhaul with this stock. I'm actually thinking of picking up more today. 201999[/snapback] Yep, but the radio network folks are showering our lovely, ethical congressmen of any stripe with campaign cash or insider deals to kibosh satellite radio. There are bills on the table to do just that. I know that Toyota offers Sirius in a recent deal, but it's a so-called aftermarket installation - and that's not the same as in the showroom or in the on-lot inventory. If it's already installed, it becomes part of the original sale (unless you demand it be removed) and so it's a smooth transaction in an automotive sales market that thrives on sticking it to people who don't do their homework. Sure, it may well work out. But perhaps not now - what with subscription fees. PAY radio??? The broadcast folks have never been able to pull that off. And currently, Sirius's tangible net worth is less than one of those Wash. DC hot dog carts that congressmen show upin front of time to time for the occasional "down-home regular kinda guy" photo op. But no balls, no glory...you might end up a millionaire or begging for AA cells for your 3-dollar AM/FM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I have some background in finance, and you are right: short selling a stock with huge potential is a TERRIBLE idea unless you buy call options also. Let's say that a stock is trading at 50. A call option could give you the right to buy 100 shares of the stock at $80 a share (the strike price), any time within the next 90 days. If the stock goes above 80, the options are "in the money." So a stock is trading at 50, and you think there is an 80% chance it will go down to 12, and a 2% chance it will go to 200. You short sell 100 shares, and you buy call options to cover 100 shares. The short selling position means you own a negative number of shares, so the stock going to 200 would cost you $150 for every share you short sold. But that's okay, because the call option keeps you safe: you only lose the difference between the $50 the stock is currently trading at, and the $80 strike price of the call option; in this case $30 a share. When the stock is at $50, you might be able to buy $80 call options at $0.75 a share, whereas $70 call options might cost you $1.50 a share. But with those $70 strike price options, the most you could lose would be $20 a share instead of $30 a share. It's like paying more for car insurance to get a lower deductible. The price you pay for call options is based on several factors: the strike price of the option, the time until expiration, and the volatility of the underlying stock. If you don't want to spend a lot of money on options, get options that have a high strike price, a low time until expiration, and that are based on a stock that doesn't change in value very much. The problem with options like those is they are not likely to do you very much good. 202104[/snapback] I know what you are saying- you are trying to hedge. But by your logic buying a stock a TERRIBLE idea unless you buy put options also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I know what you are saying- you are trying to hedge. But by your logic buying a stock a TERRIBLE idea unless you buy put options also. 202115[/snapback] Or establish a stop-loss. But either one is just like everything else in the world: a valuable tool if you know what the hell you're doing with it. It's when you don't - or worse, think you do when you really don't - that you get in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KurtGodel77 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I know what you are saying- you are trying to hedge. But by your logic buying a stock a TERRIBLE idea unless you buy put options also. 202115[/snapback] Well, there is a difference: when you buy a stock, you can only lose whatever money you put into the stock. But when you short sell a stock, it is theoretically possible to lose an infinite amount of money, because the stock could (theoretically) go up by an infinite amount. An obvious example would be the dot-com stocks. Those were clearly overvalued, but they clearly had the potential to go up by ridiculous amounts before the crash finally came. You would have been very foolish to have short sold dot-com stocks without buying call options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfladave Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I know what you are saying- you are trying to hedge. But by your logic buying a stock a TERRIBLE idea unless you buy put options also. 202115[/snapback] Actually that is a strategy that many fund managers employ to limit their downside or to lock in large gains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 Or establish a stop-loss. But either one is just like everything else in the world: a valuable tool if you know what the hell you're doing with it. It's when you don't - or worse, think you do when you really don't - that you get in trouble. 202122[/snapback] I use a 7% stop loss on every trade and I never look back. William Oneil is one wise man. Its all about preservation of capital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 Actually that is a strategy that many fund managers employ to limit their downside or to lock in large gains. 202126[/snapback] Farmers are some of the biggest commodities traders on the market. They buy puts on all their crops and its win-win. Either they hit with the market or they have a banner year with their crops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KurtGodel77 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 Getting back to the original post, there are three cases in which you'd like to buy an individual stock, and only two of them are legal. The illegal one is of course insider information. If you know something about a company that is important to its stock price, and that is not available to outside people, it's illegal for you to trade on that information. For example, in the Martha Stewart case, the prosecution pointed out that Inclone was going to announce that a drug under development had not received FDA approval. Martha Stewart sold her Inclone shares days before this announcement took place. The prosecution alleged that the CEO tipped her off about the upcoming announcement as a favor to her, and that she acted on inside information. Stewart alleges she placed a stop-loss order with her broker, resulting in the sale of shares based on an action anyone could have taken. Clearly, I'd advise against any kind of insider trading. The next way to make money on a stock is through financial analysis. Basically, you're betting you can do a better job with that than the market can; because if you just wanted a market-level rate of return, you'd buy an index fund. The market is really good at financial analysis, so unless you're an expert it's not useful to bother with this technique. That leaves the third method: a general familiarity with a given industry (without relying on inside information, of course) can lead you to make better judgements about a stock than could be the case if you just analyzed financial statements. If you notice that nobody seems to shop at a certain store any more, it would be wise not to own stock in that store. Anything you learn by this form of observation isn't insider information, because anyone at all is free to wander around stores and draw conclusions. The same goes for industry magazines. It sounds to me like the original poster MAY have enough industry familiarity to allow him to make a better judgement about the stock than the market can. However, the problem with basing a buy decision on a public announcement (like the Ford one) is that the market has already taken the information into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 There's been some "bad" news in the form of ratings downgrades recently, which have made Sirius and XM lose about 13% since the begining of the year. Both were upgraded to "buy" by one analyst today, so it will be interesting to see where the stock goes tomorrow. I wasn't happy to see the stock drop as much as it did, but I took advantage of the volatility and bought and sold shares to make a tidy profit this past week. The initial investment I made was for the long-term, which for me means at least a year, when I can see what effect Stern moving to Sirius and the deals with car makers have on subscriber numbers. But satellite radio isn't going away and will be to traditional radio what cable was/is to traditional TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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